Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
128 responses to “125+ posts? Time for a new thread.”
first
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Que Mala crash.
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just like Joe Biden’s market…but bidenomics…its working…cackle cackle cackle
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Just in case quemala now claims that she is not proud of Bidenomics.
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/08/05/kamala-harris-2023-very-proud-bidenomics/
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What’s up, Tina? Any new poles?
As for the market, I think we have to go down to 5100 on the S&P (that would be the 10% correction level), and then that becomes a pivotal moment. I’m playing it safe until then. If we bounce off 5100, then its just a normal correction, if we go further down then watch out.
Big Joe
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/democrat-raskin-says-congress-will-stop-trump-january/
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Lon overdue. Bu he economy is awful. Food inflation is quite high.
I think Trump is up 3 to 5 points national, based on Rasmussen and Harris. This was before the market fell.
Looks like something similar to 2008. This time perhaps even more concentrated on. vehicles and some overvalued re markets. Repor we’re running at record levels.
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Repos*.
Hi big Joe, that answer was for you.
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2024 GE: Survey USA
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟪 Other: 3%
Certain to Vote:
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 47%
——
Crosstabs
—
1,510 LV | August 2-4
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Thanks Tina. I agree it’s time for a pullback. The S&P went up 37% from the October lows. That’s 37% in a 9 month span, what a nice ride.
A 10% correction is needed and healthy. Otherwise, the bubble keeps getting bigger.
Big Joe
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Rasmussen Quemala has not led since 7/25 – big Joe.
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5-6 American troops injured in Iraq base attack apparently.
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Jason is not here to cry yet. Odd
Momentum has shifted a bit to Trump in the last 48 hours. The market looks shaky. The Middle East is not stable—fresh tensions.
I’m taking a look at 10 yr rates. I’ve outlined the economic headwinds in my blog post (side note)
Trump is likely +2 right now but how that translates to EC , I have no idea
Hopefully Walz can give a boost to the dems
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BL how are you feeling?
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Fwiw, a guy who lives in the same hood as Wallz claims that several black suvs are present.
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https://x.com/DanGreenMN/status/1820585720341278740?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1820585720341278740%7Ctwgr%5E75e93db3685501a5e738df650dd2f008f7402c48%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2Fblog%2F2024%2F08%2F05%2Faugust-5th-2024-presidential-politics-resistance-day-1295%2F
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I am feeling well. Thank you.
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Tina what is this? 😂
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Breaking News….99.999% of Democrats hate Trump so much they would vote for Harris if she picked Netanyahu as VP.
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Veep doesn’t matter. It’s the top that does.
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chuck burger, see my two posts together. I said fwiw.
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710/711
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not sure what Walz brings to the table other than locking down MN which Trump doesn’t need
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Hi Tina,
Looks like Walt is getting the same security package that JD Vance got on the day before Trump selected him.
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Marv, got it. How’s it?
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If it’s Walz, it’s because holder and the squad were against vampiro
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Tina,
Going great here. Burgers and mac & cheese while watching a baseball game on TV
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Sounds wonderful Marv. Waikiki was great in April. (Sheraton).
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Tina,
Rumfire?
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missed t Marv, saw it but it was busy.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/developing-several-black-suburbans-arrive-minnesota-governor-tim/
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“Breaking News….99.999% of Democrats hate Trump so much they would vote for Harris if she picked Netanyahu as VP.”
This one time, I think the Muslims in Michigan will let me answer for them with Hell No! 😂
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Tina,
How about the pool tables in the lobby over by the lanai where the giant gold fish pond is?
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Some of these polls have some strange data. Like this TIPP poll that had Harris up by one. Yet they think their neighbor will vote for Trump by 9%?
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So they are willing to let Trump, a true ally of Israel, win? Got it.
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Vampiro? Possibly your worst one yet, Tina.
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Or with Surveyusa poll Harris is up 3. Yet she is losing by 4 to Trump with the 18-24 yrs old??
2024 National GE,
Among age 18-34:
Trump 50% (+4)
Harris 46%
.@surveyusa, 1,510 LV, 8/2-4
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So they are willing to let Trump, a true ally of Israel, win? Got it.
I think Netanyahu is a bigger ally of Israel than Trump!!!
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“Looks like Walt is getting the same security package that JD Vance got on the day before Trump selected him.”
Marv,
I am not getting any security.
And stop talking about my package.
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MG, that poll is Harris+1 among the certain to vote
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Marv, yes the whole set up is beautiful. We fed the fish and di hula dancing. In the am, I ran to the abc to get my coffee. Way less expensive and better for me than the chain. Too much acid.
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I really wanted to cheer for Shapiro, the local boy, for veep.
-free passers
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wow, dems loss over 328,000 voters in the last 4 years!!!
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DW,
ITrump will most likely win the election with Harris +1 on Election Day. Carville says that Harris would have to be at least 2 1/2 to 3 pts to win the electoral college.
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https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2024/08/05/jim-cramer-if-you-care-about-your-paycheck-you-go-with-trump/
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Have Quemala or demented mentiomed anything about the injured troops in Iraq?
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Marv,
Sloppy math tells me a Harris +3 popular vote victory gives us a 269-269 tie in the electoral college.
2016: D+2 popular vote = 306 Trump EVs
2020: D+4 popular vote – 232 Trump EVs
So simple math tells us that D+3 popular vote = 269 Trump EVs
Wild!
No this is not a prediction, or even a serious post. I just like to play with numbers. And I also know the EVs are distributed differently in ’24.
Big Joe
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Big Joe – I have been pushing the 269-269 scenario for awhile, and I see that as more and more likely.
It seems that Trump has AZ and NV tied up. The culinary union in NV was a big get for him. I think he wins GA this time by a decent amount, which leaves us with NE-2 to get to 269-269.
Worse than losing, I think far left liberals will truly lose their mind if its a tie, and a Republican House gives him the Presidency. It’s almost worth it to be that close 😉
I hope you are well!!
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“The evidence from that investigation was disposed of in accordance with retention policies,” Secret Service spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said in an email.”
Gug-LIE-mi?
Subordinate of CHEAT-le?
But…the standing policy is to preserve evidence for 7 years, so why did Gug-LIE-mi have it disposed of before the 7 years.
DUH, DUH, DUH. DUH !
What a bunch of …
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Man Vic, for the sake of the country I would not want a 269-269 or really any sort or electoral chicanery. It would set us up on a path towards the dissolution of the Constitution and a return to the Articles of Confederation. But that’s another topic.
Hope you are well too!
Big Joe
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Zzzzzzzzz. Nobody said that. You continue to embarrass yourself. Acknowledging that Shapiro would very likely deliver PA to Harris is not cheerleading.
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The secret disservice has suffered multiple black eyes from the no dna/no cameras (a big lie) -nobody’s cocaine it is to the assassination attempt.
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It’s a conspiracy to accusing the secret service of malfeasance.
-Free passers
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Walt was chosen as veep?
Shipwreckedcrew
@shipwreckedcrew
The only explanation I can come up with for picked Walt would be the people encouraging her to do so want her to lose. That is not a small group at the top of the party.
·
12.8K Views
39 Reposts
4 Quotes
270 Likes
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Acknowledging that Shapiro would very likely deliver PA to Harris”
Based on what exactly?
Historically, a VP candidate has a 1.8% benefit in a home state. But that is an average, could be lower or higher. With a relatively unpopular candidate at the head of the ticket, odds are Shapiro will have a 1% effect or less.
“Very likely” is a stretch.
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Hi Big Joe
I didn’t see your answer on whether you can “swallow” a Marxist like Kamala.
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Bl, a comment is in moderation. It is kin hearted. Can you release it!
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Walz now the favorite on the betting sites but not by much.
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Finally saw a Trump campaign ad. I guess he reads HHR.
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Is Dumbchuck still claiming the Dow “recovered”?
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Kamabla.
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump·
Kamabla has stated, over and over again, that she wants to DEFUND THE POLICE AND, WITHOUT QUESTION, BAN FRACKING. “NO MORE FOSSIL FUEL.” This will quadruple the cost of energy in America!” DEPRESSION ANYONE!
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump·
People vote with their STOMACH, and food is now at an all time high because of Kamabla/Biden INCOMPETENCE. With them in charge, IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE!
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tesf
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Bl, two posts are in moderation. Can you take a look after you finish your cream soda!
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Whoops….
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8089/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-vice-presidential-nomination
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https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112912424165796616
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Social media thinks the reason Kamala might not pick Shapiro is that he would be a better candidate in 2028 than her, and if he was willing to backstab Israel he might be willing to backstab her too.
It’s a theory.
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Tina, I used my newfound powers to release your posts. I feel like a king!
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Vic got there first. The only posts caught in the filter are Bunu’s.
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That Trump flag face is creepy. Sue me.
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Not sure how she comes up with the monickers
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Damm…. three anti-Kamala ads in a row!
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lots of limoncellos
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Different ads, different Pacs, but the same word.
Dangerous.
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Shapiro is very popular in the area with the most voters in PA. Trump won PA in 2016 by 44,292 votes. In 2020, Biden won PA by 91,000 votes.
I know Jason has a pathological need to disagree with me but I don’t understand why he is skeptical Shapiro can deliver PA for Harris.
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Thanks Vic. I knew Mr Bl was either eating or sleeping.
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So, here is the likely dem VP pick. This will be the most leftist dem president/VP ticket ever!
Walz was working as a teacher in Alliance, Neb., his home state, when he was pulled over Sept. 23, 1995 for going 96 mph in a 55-mph zone. He was initially charged with driving under the influence and speeding, but the charges were reduced to a lone count of reckless driving under the terms of a plea deal. Walz had a blood alcohol concentration of .128 at the time of the incident.
Governor of Minnesota when the George Floyd riots happened. He allowed BLM to destroy black communities for months. Millions of dollars were lost in property damage. During the BLM riots Walz daughter was tweeting out the line position of the National Guard to make sure the rioters didn’t get caught.
Tim Walz was one of the Democrat Governors who intentionally discharged covid-19 patients into long-term care facilities, aka nursing homes. This caused waves of deaths. At one point, 81% of all MN covid deaths were happening in long-term care facilities
Locking kids out of school for as long as possible, then forcing them to wear useless masks.
Helped turn Minnesota into a refuge for LGBTQ Americans, signing laws that give access to gender-affirming health care……
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I don’t track the Dow son. I’m mostly positioned in utilities, defensive stocks and apple.
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I love Walz
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https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1820541467271524439?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1820541467271524439%7Ctwgr%5Ec7328a5080cccf7a183111e568103d8c9b83da20%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2Fblog%2F2024%2F08%2F05%2Faugust-5th-2024-presidential-politics-resistance-day-1295%2F
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Kamala Harris: “We have to stay woke. Like everybody needs to be woke.”
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I know Jason has a pathological need to disagree with me but I don’t understand why he is skeptical Shapiro can deliver PA for Harris.”
Because historically people vote for the head of the ticket.
Historically the VP helps very little in whatever state they are from.
Shapiro’s may be popular in the areas that are already voting for Harris, but he is not that popular elsewhere.
The latest poll on July 25th gives him 49%, nothing stellar. 46% with Indies, nothing stellar.
(WHTM) – A new poll shows about half of Pennsylvania’s residents approve of Governor Josh Shapiro‘s job performance as he’s reportedly being considered as a Vice Presidential candidate.
The new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found 49% of Pennsylvanians surveyed approved of Shapiro while only 31% disapproved. Twenty-two percent of Pennsylvania Republicans and 46% of Independents approved of Shapiro’s performance.”
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mn = Somalia = Beirut.
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My son told me that Walz jumped in the markets because of the presence of two SUVs in front of his residence. Son then just confirmed there are two SUVs in front of Shapiro’s residence. If anyone is in either hood, they can sway the markets just by showing up in one more black SUV. I’ll be waiting to place a bet on predictit.
Is any of this unusual for sitting governors?’
The battle of the black SUVs .. yawn
Politics suck.
Big Joe
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Not everybody that approves of Shapiro will vote for Kamala, bet on it.
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Walz is a far leftist but so is Shapiro.
There are no “moderates” anymore in the Dem party.
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Please turdpiro signed off on the release of the toxic chemicals from the oh train derailment,
turdiro also covered up,sexual harassment for his bff
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Vps also do little to help the ticket when the top is sheot, like quemala Only lbj can claim to have helped the ticket. Quemala is bit jfk.
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Bl “I know Jason has a pathological need to disagree with me”
This coming from the guy who is trying to tell me Muslims in Michigan would rather vote for Netanyahu than Trump! 😂😂😂
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Yes, I made that point before. The historical benefit of 1.8% on average might be less with Kamala at the top of the ticket.
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But this could be true!
“I am being advised by sources in Minnesota that Kamala Harris may give Governor Tim Walz the VP nod in exchange for Minnesota North Stars season tickets.”
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I am sure that the Somalis in Michigan will vote for Netanyahu. I read it here,
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“But this could be true!”
-If it was 1993 or earlier…….just sayin’ is all.
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“Quemala **bit jfk.”
-Obviously, with Willie Brown, she has a thing for older guys……but come on, Quemala, just let him vote, you don’t need to take it any further than that!
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“I am not fine with pretending Trump is a conservative.”
-Yet, you would call the Bush family, whose silence thru the 8 years of Obama as well as the past 4 years, has been deafening, “conservative”.
As Diego Montoya said “I do not think it means what you think it means.”
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Didn’t Mute 43 kind of like Big Mike?
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https://townhall.com/political-cartoons/afbranco/2024/08/05/206697?hpnl=true
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Jason’s neighbors joining the Trump train!
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bidenomics..:it’s working….cackle
what can be…unburdened by what has been a Biden/Comrade Czar Harris administration
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Next post will be 100. Missed those days when everyone tried to get the 100, 200,300… post. Forget who was the poster that almost never posted except to grab those hundred posts. 😂
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No. I said they would vote for a Harris-Netanyahu ticket over Trump.
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Nikkei 225 (google it schizo Jason) already erased all the losses.
You sit in grandmas basement talking to adults on a forum. Schizo
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Jason’s neighbor is his grandma who lives above the basement
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Bl, you are out of your mind; if you think Muslims in Michigan would vote for a Harris/Netanyahu ticket! I think you need to take your medicine before you have another seizure.
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The S&P already retraced half of the “KaMaLa cRasH”
What would we ever do about it?
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I thought Bl was just joking about Netanyahu but, now is doubling down on it. 😂😂😂
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pw used to keep track of the milestone posts.
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You think that Muslims want Trump back in office? Seriously?
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I think Diamond Jim was the guy who would grab the 100, 200, etc. He lost his touch though. I remember one time he tried to grab a 600 (I think), but it was really 606.
Big Joe
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It was obvious hyperbole. Take a
off your I hate Bitter hat. Do you really think Muslims would prefer letting Trump win by not voting rather than voting for pro-Hamas Harris regardless of the VP?
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Bitter, I don’t hate you, if I hated you why would I come here. And I would say enhance your blog with polls, Voter Registration numbers, latest ad buys….. There are plenty of other blogs I could go to if I wanted too.
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I don’t like when you attack the ladies on here. You are a lawyer. You should be able to make your points without personal attacks. And your constant ‘I hate Trump, but I will vote him’ every day gets old, but hey it’s your blog. Do what you want.
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Shizo Jason who has no idea how the markets work is now an expert commentator on the economy.
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“Didn’t Mute 43 kind of like Big Mike?”
-Yes, I believe they both genuinely got along, which I did not hold against either one of them.
It’s similar to ACB getting along with Kagan…..the liberal demagogue gets the “conservative” to moderate/alter their judgments while never giving an inch on their own.
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https://www.foxnews.com/media/biden-administration-ban-federal-government-using-plastic-cutlery-combat-climate-change?intcmp=tw_fnc
-Cerebrochuck talking about experts on the economy…..while his/her/they/them choice for President is banning plastic cutlery!
Get the fork out of here!
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“There are plenty of other blogs I could go to if I wanted too.”
-As Greta and Quemala would say “How dare you!?!?”
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kagan is the only qualified liberal on the court. I don’t respect her decision or politics but she’s a smart woman
the other two are absolute DEI choices with Soto hate Whitney being the most unqualified Supreme Court Justice in American history
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ummmm cereb. Nikei Is down 11.4% since Friday. Even with todays “recovery”
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If a stock goes down by 50% , it needs to go up by 100% to break even.
Math Vic
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There’s only one corrupt DEI candidate and groper/rapist on the Supreme Court
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I’m not sure what your point is but ok
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Kagan is DEI too.
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whatever. The upshot is the Nikkei was at 39,000+ Friday and is now at 33,982…so yeah. Simple math right. It hasn’t recovered
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Jason,
I’m out of politics, in recent years it has started to make my physically ill. All the fear mongering, childish nicknames, doomsday sensationalism, over the top commentary is not for me.
I don’t have an opinion on Harris, or any other politician really. They each will be whatever the get painted as by the ideology subscribed to. Harris is a Marxist/Leftist/Destroyer of America. Trump is a Fascist/Dictator/Destroyer of America. This is all toxic. We are tribal again, ideologies are religions.
From time to time, I’ll check a headline or look at a poll, it will interest me. Then I’ll see some dumbass comment or sensational tagline, then I’ll disappear for months.
Big Joe
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Did they replace Biden with someone else? 🤔
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Jason is a schizophrenic loon. Taking him seriously is the problem
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Are all women DEI hires? If so, I need to tell my wife who is a partner at her firm.
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NT
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https://www.kapwing.com/videos/66b36e1887170538c47b3ff3
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