According to AARP polling done by Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D), 7/23-28; 600 LV
 | OHIO |
| Trump | 52 |
| Harris | 42 |
| Other | 2 |
| Other Candidates: | |
| Trump | 48 |
| Harris | 39 |
| Kennedy | 9 |
| Other | 2 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Moreno | 42 |
| Brown | 46 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
75 responses to “Harris same as Biden in OHIO”
McCormick definitely winning the ad war against Casey, at least around here.
He skewers Casey on spending and inflation.
Casey has one ad, of an airplane he claims McCormick uses to fly to New Jersey where he “lived for 15 years”. It begs the question if he “lived” there before, why he flying there now? Lame.
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segundo otra vez
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So I see a lot of hand wringing, but we knew this was going to happen. There is going to be a honeymoon period, and its going to get worse after the kumbaya convention that is coming. She will get a +3 bump there, which will fade in September. We are all talking about a number of things, including (again sadly) Orange man bad, if only it weren’t Trump, but let me be clear, if RDS were the candidate, Comrade Czar Harris would still be getting the same bump as the Dems breath temporary relief that a senile old man is off the top of the ticket.
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Interesting. In the Philadelphia tv and radio market, Casey is running multiple ads every hour attacking McCormick. Probably 3-1 in favor of Casey. Each side is going for their base. Does Casey even waste money on ads where Jason lives?
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I feel like this OH poll is the first really quality poll I have seen in a while, and I don’t mean because I like the topline results. Fabrizio is tops. Impact Research, for a Dem firm is pretty good.
So many of the recent polls have been media polls, PPP-D polls for a leftist org, or polls with tiny samples, university polls, or new pollsters with no track record.
I would like to see more from this marriage between AARP and these two pollsters.
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With that said, let’s look at the REAL NEWS out today:
Global Affairs
Hezzbolah and Iran threaten to strike at the heart of Israel
US air strikes against Yemen continue
Hamas threatens to pull out of Biden’s failed cease-fire talks
Iran has also threatened to respond after the attack on its territory, which could drag the region into all-out war
Other conflicts globally that don’t begin with a U:
Haiti – worsening conflict there
Venezuela – Dems favored candidate Maduro steals election, threat of civil war escalates
Taiwan – China sabre rattling increases as it knows Biden admin will do nothing
Sudan – new civil war worsening
Yemen – America’s involvement increases
Border
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I was going to post some of today’s data, vic. Glad you got it.
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Vic, that might be the real news, but the cheering media says, everything is great! and its going to be even better than great once we have President Kamala!
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Until the euphoria of Biden being gone on the Dem side subsides, with the corresponding love fest from the MSM and constant coverage of Comrade Czar good, orange man bad subsides, Comrade Czar Harris’s numbers will improve.
YET…as we all know, it matters what happens in the states, not nationally. Arizona is lost for Comrade, no matter who her VP is. Nevada is most likely gone for Comrade Czar as well. GA, she is not winning there…so the election comes down to NE-2. Not PA, Not MI, not WI, not VA…NE-2. If Trump wins there, he wins the election…and America wins
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The data today is alarming. Manufacturing is in recession and the economy is weakening rapidly.
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That is the problem, the country has blinders on it, because we as Americans have a hard time looking beyond our borders. The Biden/Comrade Czar administration has left the world in flames, yet we never hear about it.
I bet no one here (and let’s face it, we are more politically savvy than most) know that there are no less than ten severe armed conflicts going in Africa that either the US is involved in, or let begin because we have absolutely no Africa policy at all in place. That is not to mention the places where we have troops on the ground in Africa involved in local armed conflicts.
The Americas…Haiti, Venezuela, the Northern Triangle, Mexican Border…all in shambles because of the Biden/Comrade Czar administration.
Has any President this side of Carter been worse at Middle East politics than the Biden/Comrade Czar administration…though Obama comes close and is the real architect behind this disaster.
Yemen…
It goes on and on and on
Yet the media here won’t give it a moment. Trump and the admin should be exposing all of this to the American public.
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General Election Poll
🔴 Trump 49% (+5)
🔵 Harris 44%
Rasmussen – 2163 LV – 7/31
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_2024_trump_49_harris_44
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Have you tried nominating or grooming presidential candidates through senators that aren’t raving loonies and morons? Yeah try that. Outside your MAGA cult, most people are rational. It’s on you. Not us.
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General Election Poll
🔴 Trump 47% (+1)
🔵 Harris 46%
Big Data – 2919 LV – 7/28
https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/national-poll-trump-holds-narrower-lead-post-biden-drop-out/
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Now THIS is why Kamala could win. Decades of far left indoctrination in the educational systems is producing the results the Marxist wants.
“Fifty-three percent of Americans believe that the First Amendment goes too far in the rights it protects, according to a new poll by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression.
“Evidently, one out of every two Americans wishes they had fewer civil liberties,” said FIRE Chief Research Advisor Sean Stevens. “Many of them reject the right to assemble, to have a free press, and to petition the government. This is a dictator’s fantasy.”
Americans are crying out for censorship. Around 40% trust the government “somewhat,” “very much,” or “completely” to make fair decisions about what speech is considered terrifying, intimidating, threatening, harassing, annoying, disturbing, and indecent. Another quarter trust the government “a little.” And only 32% of Americans said they would be “not at all” comfortable with the government limiting the free speech of pro-Hamas protesters.”
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Have you tried nominating or grooming presidential candidates through senators that aren’t raving loonies and morons? Yeah try that.’
Yes, R tried that. A popular governor, a popular senator, a former governor and ambassador all ran. They lost. Trump won.
How many primary votes did Kamala get? Zero.
Kamala IS a raving loony and moron with zero votes.
The troll’s hypocrisy is astounding,.
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There was some good news for Trump in that poll.
“Former President Trump’s image has been consistently improving over the last few years and for the first time since his inauguration in January 2017, both his favorability and approval ratings are majority positive. Overall, 52.2% approve of how he handled the job as president, to include 32.3% who strongly approve. That compares to 45.2% who disapprove, to include 36.5% who strongly disapprove. A slightly smaller majority (50.5%) now have a favorable view of Trump, while 48.0% view him unfavorably.”
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Comrade Czar Harris is the most liberal Senator in the country, yet the Daily Kos plant calls Republicans loonies
She supports:
Abortion on Demand (paid for by our tax dollars)
Hamas
Is Anti-Semetic
ban on fracking
open borders
citizenship for illegal immigrants
ban the 2nd ammendment
ban on free speech
etc etc etc
Sounds pretty “looney” and “weird” to me
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Yeah, Kamala is a real “sane” candidate.
You can’t make this sh-t up.
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LOL
“Shoplifters Cite Inflation, Economy As Excuses for Stealing”
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You forgot Kamala wants men competing in women’s sports.
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New York Supreme Court Rules Texas Can Continue Busing Migrants to Big Apple
https://www.breitbart.com/border/2024/08/01/new-york-supreme-court-rules-texas-can-continue-busing-migrants-to-big-apple/
Wow, there maybe hope for Trump’s hush money trial appeal
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jason, too bad Trump didn’t have those polling stats on free speech when he spoke at the Libertarian convention. He could have said, “you have two options when it comes to fixing this. You can vote for me and I will defend free speech, or you can throw your vote away on the 1% Libertarian candidate and help the Communists finish their job.”
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Good! We printed too much money during Covid. The economy is in bad shape already, we’re just propped by the last vestiges of excess liquidity.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 630 points — 1.5% — in recent trading, leaving it on track for its worst day since March 22, 2023, when the blue-chip average fell 1.63%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The Nasdaq Composite was down 2.8% and the S&P 500 down 1.8%. Both indexes were on track for their worst days in just over a week, FactSet data showed.
Stocks were rattled on Thursday after weak economic data revived concerns that a September interest-rate cut from the Fed might come too late to stave off further deterioration in the economy and labor market.
Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 was on track for its worst drop since February.
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Holy crap, could it be that cereb is a closet Pauliac pretending to be an ex-republican who loves liberals…this is a clue, as it is the Pauliac lexicon…”We printed too much money during Covid”
I have always said they play both sides of the fence, looking to destabilize the “party system”
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One is not like the other. Schizo
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lol
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“Stocks were rattled on Thursday because of polling showing a Marxist could win”
Fixed it.
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Holy crap, could it be that cereb is a closet Pauliac”
The Marxists hate America as much as the Pauliacs….
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Even a left wing rag like Snopes admits what Trump said was true.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/kamala-harris-ap-race-headlines/
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I sympathize as Hispanic-Inca-Amish.
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filling the mid day gap. Its funny how silent is goes late in the afternoon here
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Not all of us are our own boss.
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How else will I have a chance at first place.
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Recession fears reemerge (market watch)
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molester is a sicko.
NEWS: In his book, Jon Tester wrote that he secretly “loved” a poster that depicted Trump dead. @JonTester is sick. https://washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/3106054/jon-tester-pearl-jam-poster-trump-dead/
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VictrC: Trump’s foreign policy is to abandon NATO, abandon Ukraine to Russia, abandon Taiwan to China and abandon the rest of the world. Kamala will have a much stronger US foreign policy that the joker Trump.
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Julie Kelly 🇺🇸
@julie_kelly2
House Judiciary just opened an investigation into Loren Merchan’s firm, Authentic Campaigns, which looks more and more like Fusion GPS 2.0
Cont…
https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/1819093345131450723
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It is a pretty cool poster.
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Pearl Jam poster is cool. Suck it, Tina.
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paul
you’re incorrect. Trump will not abandon NATO or Ukraine. In fact he’s made that clear by both his words and his actions
he would NEVER allow China to invade Taiwan and China wouldn’t do it on Trump’s watch
Trump is viewed in much higher esteem thank comrade Harris in most of Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
those are facts
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Everyone in Europe prefers Kamala over Trump. Yes, Trump will abandon Ukraine. He will end US military aid to Ukraine. And force UK to end their military aid to Ukraine. You are delusional if you think otherwise.
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you’re incorrect. Outside of leftists in the Uk, soy boy Macron and Germany Trump is preferred over the Obama regime puppetd
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he has stated that he would not end aid to Ukraine.
as for the rest of the world it’s on fire and we don’t hear q word. Venezuela is about to devolve into a bloody civil war because the Biden/Obama/Comrade Harris favored candidate, Communist Maduro, committed election fraud (birds of a feather…)
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lol. You can’t make this stuff up. This is how Liberals think, and sadly what they see:
REPORTER TO BIDEN: “President Trump has said repeatedly that he could’ve gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange. What do you say to that?” BIDEN: “Why didn’t he do it when he was president?”
the worst part is this is what the MsM will report without letting them know thst Biden is senile…none were prisoners during trumps presidency!!!!
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And they are hiding what they gave up in exchange.
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Trump would give up half of Ukraine and not get that much in return.
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Paul. While I a disagree with you, I’m happy you express your views. I guess we’ll find out whose right in 2025
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30 Russians traded for 2 Americans plus how much $$$?
sounds like a fair exchange. /s
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https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/08/01/kamala-harris-cowers-interviews-pressers-11th-straight-day-since-replacing-biden-ticket/
”The Harris camp is also well aware that their candidate doesn’t do well in unscripted settings, not to mention that a presser or legitimate sit-down interview would necessarily require her to defend some of her positions, previous statements and record. Thus, a rerun of the Biden basement campaign sounds pretty good, as long as you throw in a couple of rallies with Megan Thee Stallion”
Richard Baris has said Harris’s rise in the polls is due to an unearned surge. Once her voiced policies and record of malfeasance as DA and AG in CA are well known, as well as her unremarkable achievements as a senator, Harris’s favorability and poll numbers will fall just like they did shortly after she became Biden’s VP.
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The world is burning while we have a demented-in-chief, and his side-kick has to hide in her basement to try to win the election:
Peru Recognizes Maduro’s Rival as Venezuela’s President-elect
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Good for Peru!
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the problem is they want Maduró. Just like they want Castro. Just like they want the mullahs in Iran and Hamas to all be in charge
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An American is a lot more valuable
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Jon Tester is my favorite senator. Leave him alone
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It would be nice if the US would join Peru. But, VictrC is right that it probably not happening.
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I miss Wes. He would have enjoyed the twists and turns of this election. Of course, he would have voted for Harris because he despised Trump. So, while it is sad he is gone, that is one less vote for Harris in NC.
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As usual, the party that is all about abortion deeming it “womens health”…again takes the sides of the weird and doesn’t condemn a man fighting against women.
Comrade Czar Harris remains silent on the controversy surrounding men once again being allowed to compete in womens sports. The party that can not even define what a woman is, once again sides with the weird who believe men can have babies.
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BTW Shapiro cancelled all his events in long island this weekend signaling he’s been chosen as the VP candidate. We shall see, but I think Comrade Harris loses Michigan with this one.
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Not enough polls considering the massive change in momentum hmm
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Biden claims he knows what the families of Americans wrongfully detained in foreign countries have been through because he’s “lost family”
Sick.
Our enemies know that now they can just hold Americans hostage on bogus charges and get all their spies and assassins back.
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wait…this is the guy were afraid of helping Comrade Czar Harris? Really?
https://x.com/thejefflutz/status/1818839661042655482/video/2
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ouch
Less than 300 people are in attendance to see Kamala and Gov. Shapiro. The capacity of the Wissahickon H.S. auditorium is 3,500 people.
https://x.com/i/status/1818615633036075083
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300 people. How many are bussed in? Did you see her ga event with the singer? They left as she started speaking.
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Trump. $139 million raised in July.
$327 million cash on hand
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Thats a lot of cash on hand for the last 100 days
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It actually really hurts how far left America has moved since orange man came into politics. Due to his personal toxicity many people (like me)have rejected the republican brand.
Republicans have lost an entire generation. Republicans have failed to rebrand. Never made actual inroads into minority groups.
All for what? He’ll lose in November. A n actual leftist from California will become president because not simply because of the cult of Trump but because republican elites were too weak to act while they had time.
But hey enjoy the Supreme Court. It won’t matter in 40 years when the path to presidency for republicans is virtually impossible.
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I write this because too many idiots on places like this never seem to understand that time changes everything.
You must evolve or you die. It’s simply the law of nature. Countless examples.
The Republican Party has failed to evolve. All because of a failed charlatan who doubles as a felon. A narcissistic fucktard. A man with no principles. A man who can’t keep anyone loyal to him. A failed leader. A self serving servile sycophant with no sense of truism. Fuck!!
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Zzzzzzzzzzz if you betrayed all of your beliefs because of Trump, you never really believed in them.
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Go f••k yourself. Some of us have principles and won’t succumb to supporting criminals and people who are groomers for the “greater good”.
Actually f—k right off if that’s the message you gleaned from what k wrote
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So, if Trump wins, cerebrochuck, what kind of lines will you use to defame him? How will you react?
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He won’t win. The fact that you can’t see that is actually shocking to me.
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You won’t answer a simple hypothetical question. That’s cowardly and demonstrates how empty your bravado really is.
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N/T
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