According to a PPP poll of ‘voters’ that stressed the importance of the affordable healthcare act and was taken prior to the shooting on Saturday.
 | WISCONSIN – PPP |
| Trump | 46 |
| Biden | 47 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
18 responses to “Biden up 1 in Wisconsin”
I am not afraid to acknowledge it when I am wrong. I admit now that I was a bit too carried away by the emotion of watching a former president and hopefully a future president nearly get assassinated. I waited over 24 hours to say anything so that my predictions of outcomes wouldn’t be so far off.
On Monday morning, 48 hours ago, I posted the predictions below, and I can already see how far off I was:
“Here are my observations and predictions.
The picture of Trump, bloodied, head raised high with fist in the air with the secret service agents ducking below him and the American flag overhead is absolutely iconic. That is the photo of the year, and the photo that will define the rest of this race.”
This photo is still good and it is iconic Trump, but half of the country doesn’t care.
“Trump personal favorability numbers have been pretty stagnant at net -10. That number will quickly close to zero, and then go into the positive, probably up to +5 or so. I don’t think it can go any higher.”
I was totally wrong. Trump favorability might go down even further because for many Americans, he had the audacity to turn his head and not fill up a grave.
“The national horserace numbers will give Trump a temporary boost from the +5 he is getting now to probably +8 or +9, but again, in this polarized nation, its not possible to go any further. 40% of the electorate would vote for Satan himself so long as he had a D after his name.”
I have seen enough of post-shooting polling numbers and there is absolutely NO change. Biden’s debate debacle had a much larger short-term impact on the numbers.
Given the short timespan between the failed assassination attempt and the GOP convention, the viewership for Trump’s speech will be HUGE.
Wrong again, as half the nation is angry he’s even giving this speech at all.
Watch for a bump in support for Trump among the black community, particularly black men in the urban areas. They have a candidate now who understands what its like to be shot.
Still waiting for data on this one, but I am not sure at all this will turn out either.
The boost for Trump from the failed assassination will gradually wane as we get closer to election day, but his lead of +2 to +5 was already baked in and is not likely to go away.
There was no gradual to it, and there was no boost at all.
The failed assassination got Biden’s mental incapacity off the headlines, which ironically saves his candidacy from replacement candidate.
I was right about this, but this prediction was the easiest and most obvious.
The NY scam trial that is awaiting sentencing is now dead. There is no way the judge throws Trump in jail after this.
I think I will be wrong here too. The shooting of Trump failed, so now the left will look to the judge to throw Trump in jail, and he might just do it.
Those are my thoughts. I could be right or wrong.
I was wrong.
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I was just reading the news story about the Insider Advantage poll that showed Trump leading GA 47-44. It said Trump leads with independents by almost 30 points. The story did not give a D/R/I breakdown, but I would love to see it to find out how such a huge advantage with independents results in only a 3-point lead.
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Insider Advantage isn’t a bad pollster though. I saw that too Jeff G. Maybe they put their thumb on the scale to help Biden so he wouldn’t get replaced.
Apparently, some leftist commented on Trump’s entrance into the GOP Convention, and he accused Trump of trying to get sympathy by wearing an extra-large bandage over his ear.
The man was nearly killed and had his ear about ripped off by a bullet. This shooting has the left completely unhinged. They are everything and MORE of what they accuse Trump of being.
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And I don’t like what I am reading among many ardent Trump supporters. They are talking like the election is in the bag because of the shooting. It’s as though they think the shooting magically makes Trump supporters’ votes count double.
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and here is more…Biden actually GAINED a point in the Economist/YouGov poll after the shooting:
NATIONAL POLL: YouGov/Economist
🟥 Trump: 43% [=]
🟦 Biden: 41% [+1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟪 Other: 4%
——
🟥 Trump: 44% [+2]
🟦 Harris: 39% [+1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 5%
——
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 45% [-1]
🟥 GOP: 44% [=]
[+/- change vs July 7-9]
——
% who are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president
Trump supporters: 72%
Biden supporters: 52%
—— 4 (2.9/3.0) | July 13-16 | 1,404 RV
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That Economist/YouGov poll was D+9 nationally, so yeah, Trump up 2 with a D+9 sample is very likely 300+ EVs for Trump.
But anyone who thinks this election is suddenly over is sadly mistaken. Reading social media comments and it seems many Trump supporters point to the huge enthusiasm gap, as though enthused votes count double or triple the votes of those who are not enthused.
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Maybe there are some Biden voters who were wavering before the shooting. Afterwards, they may have recommitted to getting rid of Trump at the polls.
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DW – Obviously, Trump needs 270 EVs to win. Winning the popular vote, too, is unlikely but would be a bonus that would quiet the “get rid of Electoral College” movement for a short time.
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DW, I think the country is so polarized that there simply aren’t enough undecided and swing voters to move the top line numbers either way. The numbers are baked in cement. That is disappointing when you expect Trump to get a boost on the assassination attempt. By the same token it’s bad for Biden in that he’s the one behind in the electoral college and the ability for him to move numbers his way is practically impossible. Who would you rather be right now? Trump or Biden? The answer is clearly Trump.
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In New York State, the only two candidates who have secured ballot access is Trump and Biden. RFK, Jr. has the signatures, and should be on the ballot, but the Dems sued. This from RRH:
“The crux of the lawsuit is that after RFK Jr was booted from his New York residence last year due to his landlord supporting Biden for President (seriously), he started renting a room from some friends, and when he filed for President in New York, he listed that address as his residence instead of the property he owns in California. The lawsuit alleges this is fraud and is trying to kick him off the New York State ballot as a result. This whole thing is bizarre–even if you assume he’s taking more from Biden, if that matters in *New York State* Biden has already lost in a landslide anyway.”
Obviously RFK takes away more from Biden than Trump or they wouldn’t be fighting his ballot access like this. The only poll we have of NY with RFK included is from Emerson, and they have Biden +6 but at only 44%.
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“Trump or Biden? The answer is clearly Trump.”
Sure, in any free and fair election Trump wins in a romp. But is the GOP committed to have volunteers with cameras 24/7 filming everyone who approaches a ballot dropbox?
Who is going to guard the early votes cast in GOP leaning precincts?
Who is going to give the GOP access to observe what goes on in Philly on election night ballot counting?
It’s not who votes, its who counts the votes that matters in a Banana Republic.
Sorry to be such a downer here this morning, but all over social media I see Trump supporters spiking the football and high-fiving, but they aren’t in the end zone yet. Not even within field goal range yet.
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Phil, you’re right about “baked in cement”. The shooting isn’t necessarily swaying anyone, but it is hardening people’s positions. I don’t expect much change in the numbers between now and election day.
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I haven’t gone beyond the initial impact of last Saturday’s assassination attempt to thinking how it will affect polling. In fact as more info is revealed, surrounding that flawed and emotionally charged rally, my thoughts are processing those details more than anything else. However, talking to hard core anti Trumpers here in coastal CA it’s obvious they seem more stuck in their hatred of him (similar to Vic’s mother’s response), which would move them closer to supporting Trump’s pathetic opponent, Biden. Basically, it’s just too soon to adequately judge the ramifications of the close call in Butler, PA. Plus, political events are moving too fast – over layering each other with news cycles moving on with different headlines capturing the public’s attention. Once we get thru both conventions, the political landscapes will be more well-defined – how has Trump adapted or changed because of his near death experience; how is his VP pick weathering heat from both the left and disappointed right; has Biden withstood not being canned by his party; if not, who is the dem presidential candidate.
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I agree about the inflexible nature of the vote. Both candidates have been President, and Trump is the biggest lightning rod in the country. Much of the movement is margin of error stuff, most likely.
That said, there could some slight movement of a point or so toward the end if Joe’s cognitive issues go from bad to awful.
Chicon
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Musk’s huge donation and Trump’s (and RNC, too) focus on early voting and defending voter fraud might make an important difference.
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A radical leftist protester outside the GOP convention hall was interviewed and she said she most fears political violence in America, but she had just said that she was sorry the assassin missed killing Trump.
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What I think will be real telling is how much Biden can raise in the next few weeks. From what I’m hearing is the big dem donors are refusing to donate until Biden is replaced. If that is true the Republicans will have a huge advantage.
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NT
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