According to Cygnal:
 | IOWA – Cygnal |
| Trump | 51 |
| Biden | 39 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
According to Cygnal:
| IOWA – Cygnal |
| Trump | 51 |
| Biden | 39 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
88 responses to “Trump ahead in Iowa”
First!
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Vance is another isolationist moron.
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Vance grew up poor in Appalachia; was a US Marine, got to Yale Law, married a woman with Indian parents (who clerked for Kavanaugh and Roberts). Wrote a bestseller, won a US Senate seat, and is a VP candidate. He’s 39.
I preferred Youngkin, but I’m giving the 1st Millennial on a Presidential ticket a chance.
I’ll let others go negative.
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Bitter, just vote for Biden. You’ll feel better.
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Without looking it up, I am assuming this is the first time the VP pick is half the age of the presidential nominee. We won’t see that again.
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I just found out that the polls done by the Times / you Gov on the last thread actually had LIKELY Voter numbers buried deep in the PDF. Here are those results:
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+9)
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 4%
—
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+5)
🟦 Biden: 39%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+6)
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 45% (+3)
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Other: 4%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+2)
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+5)
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+4)
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
🟪 Other: 2%
— 4 (2.9/3.0) | ≈850 LV per state | 7-4-12
I am going to be updating to these numbers in the polling pages, and update the averages, and the main page numbers tomorrow.
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DW, those numbers will soon be reversed because of the VP nominee.
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Zzzzzzzz. I have never voted for a Democrat except RINO Trump. Trump got my vote in 2016 and 2020. He will get it again in 2024z. Why would you say something so stupid?
How many Democrats have you voted for, Chi?
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Chicon,
I thought Tim Scott was the best pick. But I don’t think Vance is a calamity either. He has a compelling personal story that shaped his views as a politician. I understand some people on this blog are very concerned about his Ukraine policies. But here we are. Let’s see how it plays out over the next 16 weeks.
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Every Republican candidate is labeled an anti-abortion extremist. Vance actually is one. Trump did Biden a favor with this pick.
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I believe trump is now trailing in Iowa after picking Vance.
-free passer
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“Public Opinion Strategies, a polling firm used by NBC News in its latest poll, revealed a massive mistake in a survey released Sunday that appeared to show President Joe Biden ahead by 3 percentage points nationally.
Former President Donald Trump, not Biden, had been ahead by 3 points in a multicandidate race, according to a statement from the company. The company acknowledged its mistake Sunday night, well after many Democrats had seized the poll as an opportunity to buoy Biden.”
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TBH I don’t care about his Ukraine policies, Trump will always rule over anyone in his cabinet or VP. The world is bigger than Ukraine, and our participation globally is much larger than Ukraine.
Vance is just a dumb choice. He’s a closed minded, take my ball and go home if you don’t do and agree with me exactly 100%, bring nothing to the table person. He would have gained more electorally with someone else.
I don’t say he blew the election, but he made it harder and threw away all the goodwill from Saturday in just two days.
Look, no matter who it was, people were going to be upset. Rubio…not conservative enough. Youngkin…to moderate. Haley…well, we know.
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One more credit for the dismissal of the box dox hoax case.
Ed Meese back in the days when a Republican Administration had an ag who had balls.
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Good night, nurse.
Trump didnt need a prochoice anything. A woman might have helped, but baring that Trump gave us the SCOTUS that overturned Roe. The prolifers would love him regardless, the pro-aborts would hate him regardless.
Free traders and neo-cons are the ones most likely to be upset. They dont like Trump’s policies anyway.
If free trade is your passion, where do you go? Neo-cons? Do what Kristol, Nicole Wallace, Romney, Ryan, etc. are doing….vote Biden but dont announce it. Just like they did in 2016 and 2020. Who needs ya.
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Now we get acting Rinos and Bushies.
Trump cannot make any personnel mistakes with incompetent Ags or recycled bush drones
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Sessions should have been slotted for Dhs, not Ag.
got played letting the acting ag investigate an unspecified crime.
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Vic – Remember when Biden was almost replaced and Trump had a good chance to win? I think it was way back around lunchtime.
Jan better learn how to commit election fraud because Trump traded the votes of a lot of people to secure her vote.
PA and Virginia are now off the table for Trump. I hope it was worth it.
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”Vance is another isolationist moron.”
Vance graduated from Ohio State in 2 years, going on and graduating from Yale Law School, where he met his wife, who clerked under SC Roberts. Both are brilliant and yet down-to-earth people who will appeal, as a couple, to the very working class, Reagan democrats who originally voted Trump into office. Establishment republicans, suburban elites have hardly provided the bulk of support for those running under the populist mantle – the forgotten, often ignored working class – aka perhaps those comprising the fabled “silent majority.”
Isolationist? If you mean rejecting joining large Paul Ryan-endorsed global TPP trade deals. Yes. But, like Trump he’s in favor of smaller trading alliances, while not loosing sight of safeguarding our own national security vulnerabilities, and putting overseas wars in a proper less lopsided perspective. There are lots of people like me wanting more emphasis placed on problems that have been sidelined here – regarding cultural changes, academics, health issues, foreign policy, oversized budgets, and of course the invasion of unvetted millions into our country.
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The Republican platform is that abortion is a state issue. Many are mad the Trump did that. The dems will talk about abortion anyway, no matter the identity of the VP. Should he have selected a pro-choice VP? C’mon man…..
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Jan – Even Tina was fine with Youngkin. Other than you, HHR sees Vance as a mistake.
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Jan made a good case for Vance. I do not see Vance as a mistake. I hoped for better (Carson, Youngkin, Stefanik) but Vance will do very well as VP.
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I said enough. Let the Vance lovers have their moment.
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Chicon, it seems a few are willing to give Vance a try-out period of time, while others just gloom and doom the choice. Only time will tell…However, even if a Trump/Vance ticket wins the election I bet the sentiments here don’t change.
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Vic said….”Vance is just a dumb choice. He’s a closed minded,….”
Vic, Vance was Never Trump. How is he closed-minded? If Ukraine isn’t an issue, what topic is?
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Youngkin apparently was Trump’s second choice. And, if that had happened I would have accepted it with grace, not vitriol.
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Every single voter like you, Jan, was already voting for Trump. What voter does Vance add?
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Bitter, who are the Vance lovers?
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Same people who are decrying Vance for having been Never Trump are the same people who keep pushing Haley. And I would take a former Never Trumper over a backstabbing heifer like Haley anyday.
However, I would vote for Trump even if he put Hillary on his ticket. I am and was, all-in, since DeSantis fizzled.
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You also think God cares who wins elections.
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He does.
And His people need to back the candidates that most align with his moral teachings.
Not sure your point.
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Apparently, not reflexively condemning the pick of Vance and looking for the nearest ledge is the equivalent of being a Vance lover. Lol. This remains an interesting place….
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Chicon states it clearly and accurately.
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I’m getting tired of this personal attack act.
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You really thought demented was going to be replaced. lol.
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Hpefully, Vance is better than depends.
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I don’t know much about Vance. But, he did win an election in Ohio that some people here said he would lose.
He does know how to handle the media. I mean embarass them without coming across as mean.
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The R party is now the workers party. country clubism and war mongering are gone
@TeamsterSOB
on JD Vance as Trump’s VP “He’s been great on Teamster issues…He’s been right there on all our issues. We’ve publicly stated it, and look in this day and age there’s nothing better than having a US Marine represented as the Vice President candidate.”
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I also woukd have been fine with youngkin.
I would not have been fine with Nikita.
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Vance is a very boring pick. Not a lifetime politician for sure. He has flip flopped on issues. Kind of a faux intellectual. I am sure Vivek and Rubio are pretty disappointed.
Even if he becomes VP … Youngkin, DeSantis are strong leaders looking forward.
Scott would have been interesting.
I don’t think it matters anyway. Yawn. 🥱
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Faux news hates him because he is not pro Ccp.
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”What voter does Vance add?”
The millennials/Gen Z generations, rust belt working class and former dem union workers, those interested in focusing on growing US problems – basically everyone who the current Dem/Republican politicians routinely ignore in favor of the ones people really don’t care about. Basically, people want change from the same old, same old…..
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Hopefully the House of Rinos pull stoners funding.
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But Vance is VERY Pro-Russia so that thrills the Putinistas.
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Kampala will have a tough time against Vance.
She had an easy time with depends.
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He could add:
millennials or the yutes.
catholics
Blue collar workers
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Above all, handle the media.
depends could handled much of anything.
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Jan is the main cheerleader. I am sure there are others.
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You claim God takes an active role is politics and the world. Where was God when Clinton and Obama were elected? Where was God when my niece killed herself? I don’t think God cares as much as you think He does. My life would be easier if I had your level of faith. I don’t.
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OK. The upshot is Vance is the VP candidate, and I am going to, as is expected in any intellectual discourse, go back and look at his record, listen to his speeches and try to learn more about him.
I will still vote for Trump. I think others would have been a better choice that would have rallied most voters. I do not think PA is off the table because of Vance.
BTW best quote I have seen today…
Erick Erickson: “Putting JD Vance on stage against Kamala Harris will be like having Einstein debate Hawk Tuah girl.
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And you continue to post here even though I suck at (partially) administering it.
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Then you must have blocked out all of 2004-2023 HHR.
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Just listened to a recent Vance speech at Conservative conference. When he described the US forming as a nation he mentioned ZERO about founding principles…interesting to say the least. It was some intellectual diatribe on customs…I am still scratching my head…
Anyway Vance is not a DC swamp person. That’s a plus.
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I think Trump just handed PA and Virginia to the Dems, including Senator Casey.
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Where’s Robbie?
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In some ways the more I learn of the more recent version of what the former Never Trump Senator from Ohio. He has lived the American Dream and will be more than adequate as a VP.
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However he will change his positions on issues like a listless vessel. 🚢
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Bring in those young right to lifers who were on the fence.
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What has been painfully obvious to me this election cycle is how unprincipled the GOP has become.
Very unlike the woke commie Dems.
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The Dems are destroying this country with conviction.
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This article summarizes the VP pick well, imo.
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/07/15/live-reaction-to-vp-pick-n3791841
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Good news for Tim Scott. He can call off the wedding. He’s listening to Elton John’s “Someone saved my life tonight” right now.
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Bitter, you’ve long been record that Trump will lose PA, because abortion….
You just wanna be mad because you hate Trump.
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Which was the allegation used by the Haley-haters against her. Funny how that is seen a virtue in Vance.
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I hate Trump. He will be getting my vote for the third time. Both can be true.
Why is this so difficult for you.
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Given his no exceptions stand, how does Vance help in PA?
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😂
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He flipped on that one I think.
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He doesn’t help in PA. Trump is in this on his own. He wins, or loses, strictly on Trump. Maybe he didnt choose Rubio or Youngkin because he didn’t want to be overshadowed. 90% of aAmerica has never heard of Vance. We will see.
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Why are the others preferring somebody else, Chi?
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Vic, VP candidates rarely make a difference. This is especially true with a figure as large as Trump.
Again, I wanted Youngkin, but I think it’ll all be okay.
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Bitter, reading is a skill, eh?
I didn’t prefer Vance. I only said it several times. Ignoring that is your typical, childish MO.
I wanted Youngkin, but I’m not very worried about the pick. You can be if you want to be.
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https://www.wpxi.com/news/local/alleged-trump-shooter-spotted-by-law-enforcement-nearly-30-minutes-before-shots-fired-sources-say/Q6GIK5RP6RBY5PHIMYBNXRTEBI/
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Read it again. I will make it easy for you. It should have said Why are others preferring somebody else than Vance? I thought that was obvious in the context of this thread. Not to you.
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Earlier test polling showed Vance did very well in PA and other rust belt states. Such optimism over what this VP choice advances is also felt by commentators at the RNC Convention. When he first entered the hall Vance was met with a huge tide of enthusiasm from the crowd. But, I guess you guys must know more than any of those people.
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I received a call from NYC Mike. He saw my phone number and wasn’t afraid to call. He is doing well.
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Let me answer.
Others are preferring Vance, not so much on policy, but because many believe there were choices that could have helped electorally. Many believe Youngkin would have helped him potentially win VA. Potentially…no one knows for sure. Haley could have helped with Suburban moms…though she would have cost most likely just as many votes. Rubio might have helped with Hispanics, though remember, he is Cuban, and the Hispanic community has its own “factions”…and have their own rivalries. I don’t know how well he would have played in NM, Colorado, etc.
With that said, I am willing to give him a chance, because that is what rational adults do. Ive been watching some of his previous speeches, and debates in Ohio, and he’s more articulate than I had remembered.
There were better choices. This is the one we have. We need to win.
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Oh thats good. I am taking the boys to NYC on the 26th (Little one want to see his team…Man City and his second favorite team AC Milan play…sadly its at Yankee Stadium…I will have to wash the evil off of them when we leave LOL) Maybe we can meet up. Still thinking about coming to Philly and we can get together Bitter
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MTG speaking. Says God’s hand saved Trump. If true, why did God not save the firefighter who was killed and the other shooting victims? Were they not Trumpy enough for God?
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what happened Bl?
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MTG sounds just like Jan. Except for the Southern accent.
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”Let’s elect Donald Trump, the Braveheart of our time!” The rallying words of Mark Robinson, vying for NC governor, today at the RNC Convention. Call him up, Bitter, and throw stones at him for such a comparison. There’s also a writer for American Thinker making the same comparison. But hey, you’re the man who knows everything.
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Anything that makes Bl more angry and more bitter I support. So, I support the pick of J.D. Vance as VP.
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Bl what happened to Mike?
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NT
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Wrong again Bitter. I’m not a MTG fan, and I have a soft voice.
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The FBI and Secret Service continue with the lack of information routine.
The top of those agencies need a power washing.
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The Teamsters President spoke positively about the Vance choice. There has been a large shift among low and middle income workers toward the Republican party over the past few elections.
Perhaps this choice was designed to aim at that developing demographic. The knuckle dragger crowd is viewed as the unwashed by the suburban Republicans. This could be what irritates some – Robbie would be going bonkers, I’m sure.
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