According to post-debate polling by 1983 Labs (yes, I have never heard of them either):
 | ARIZONA |
| Trump | 48 |
| Biden | 33 |
| Kennedy | 8 |
| Oliver | 2 |
 | PENNSYLVANIA |
| Trump | 46 |
| Biden | 41 |
| Kennedy | 3 |
| Oliver | 1 |
 | MICHIGAN |
| Trump | 45 |
| Biden | 41 |
| Kennedy | 5 |
| Oliver | 1 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
79 responses to “Trump ahead in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan”
Up 15 in Arizona? C’mon man….
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Free Jason!
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Phil, I saw your test message.
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Those polls seem too good to be accurate.
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”Free Jason!”
Why?
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Vance up in the betting markets for VP position.
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Beyond his pro-Putin isolationism, why do you like Vance?
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There’s no way Trump is up 15 in AZ, but the numbers for MI and PA are in line with several other recent polls.
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I think the label of “isolationism” is inaccurately placed because of stances wanting to decrease or withhold untold funding for Ukraine. I like Vance because he steadfastly supports and clearly articulates Trump’s policy agenda. He is young enough to be less caught up in ties to establishment politics, something I find refreshingly hopeful in turning away from the direction the “uniparty, bipartisan” government hacks are now taking us. Ever since Trump entered the political arena I begin to see the United States entering into a 1776 moment, where voters would have to choose what direction they wanted to go in – stay the course to a more global-dominated governance, or turn back the tide of censorship and revocation of rights, to a more originalist following of the inalienable rights put forth in the Constitution. Somehow, I see Vance as being pugnacious enough to fight for our constitutional rights, versus what some of the other VPs possibilities are willing to do.
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Test
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Final test.
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Had issues with the WordPress site. Seems like the email capability disappeared?
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I stand by what I wrote. Vance is a Pro-Putin isolationist.
Trump is a Founding Father now? Damn. That shows even more ignorance of history than comparing Trump to Braveheart.
Despite Jan’s worship, Trump did not change the culture in DC. Once he became President, Trump was part of the Establishment.
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Trump would be very stupid to pick a sitting Senator to be his VP.
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Remember how bad his choice of Sen. Sessions was for AG in 2016 and what that led to?
_________________________
So, having said that, Trump will probably pick a sitting R Senator to be his running mate t put R control in the Senate in jeopardy.
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Walt – Didn’t you get the memo? Trump does not make mistakes.
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test
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Test
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Hi, several posts disappeared?
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If he picks a senator, Tim Scott would give the best shot of getting a solid conservative as a replacement, followed by Rubio.
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Hi gsng
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Seems like I am having issues with WordPress.
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The best pick left who’s not a senator is Burgum.
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Or maybe Youngkin.
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My comments kee0 disappearing
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Test comments disappear?
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Howde
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Hi what is happening with wp?
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Test1 23
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Trump is a pro-Putin cocksucker. He needs to be kicked out of the party.
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How can Trump be up 5 in PA? I mean, Biden is playing abortion commercials!
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Trump is a pro-Putin piece of shit.
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Why are they running the ads if abortion won’t be an issue. Don’t just say “what else can they run on?” People who get paid to win think abortion will matter. It did in 2022 and 2023.
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Welcome back.
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Abortion is wayyyyy down the list of importance to most voters in most states.
To some suburban moms (ironic isn’t it) in PA, MI, and WI, which are important states, they consider unfettered access to abortion one of the key issues, more than immigration, the economy, security, etc. so it matters on the fringes because these states will be close. Hence the reason why I say Haley should be the VP choice.
Both can be…and are…true
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Vance is a moronic isolationist. His position as an isolationst/populist is earned not because he isn’t supporting funding the Ukraine’s defense in the name of freedom from tyranny, but because his foreign policy positions are moronic/idiotic/nonsensical (take your pick). His concept of governance, viewing our place in the global economy, and global world as some sort of conspiracy and led by the Rothschilds/WEF/CFR/the bankers…etc is myopic and untenable.
We live in a connected world, where people have access, instant access, to communication with the rest of the world. We depend on trade with the rest of the world. We depend on alliances that ensure global peace, global commerce. This idea that we can close our doors to the rest of the world to fight “immigration” is absurd.
You truly want to fight illegal immigration. Work to pressure the governments in the countries that are flooding us to make the situation in those countries better. Increase trade with them, increase manufacturing, increase opportunities and we can decrease illegal immigration.
But we fight against the corruption in those countries, the greed, the ingrained poverty, and in doing so, help lift the bottom up there, creating less reason to move here to find opportunity.
Vance is too moronic to see that. He’s a populist opportunist who would be a disaster for this country.
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Paul, you changed everyone’s minds here. I promise we’ll all vote for Biden – all because of your wise words. You can float away now like a dried up turd in the wind.
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Bitter, so the admin changes worked to eliminate bunu’s spamming. That is terrific. I hope Phil can figure out how to create an account and rejoin us.
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Bitter, so the admin changes worked to eliminate bunu’s spamming. That is terrific. I hope Phil can figure out how to create an account and rejoin us.
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Why ask me a question, Bitter, when you, the “know-it-all,” have all the answers?
I, however, have been consistent in seeing we have been at an important turning point since Trump arrived on the political scene. It’s not a matter of idolizing him, but observing the strengths of his opposition to the Dems when they are running all over us with their progressive and oftentimes illegal agenda . Also, not cleaning up DC in the 4 years he was constantly being surveilled, investigated, impeached, thwarted by his own party does not make him part of the establishment, but more a leader of a weak party of spineless, establishment republicans! Being a real conservative is standing up for what conservatives say they stand for: defending the constitutional rights of the people, the homeland, and having fiscal responsibility that grows an economy rather than depleting it…..like we’re rapidly doing today.
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Since Vance is a relative “newbie” to DC politics, predictions about his abilities are simply shots in the dark, more colored by a person’s own ideology than real knowledge. Consequently, Vance might prove to be Vic’s nightmare of a “disaster.” Or, Vance might become a “gift” to our current dysfunctional, Marxist-bound republic of a country.
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Trump had no sense of fiscal responsibility.
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BTW, even though my pick would be Vance I don’t think even Trump would have the cahones to have such a bold ticket as Trump/Vance. He’ll probably opt for a safer choice such as Burgam.
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Bitter said…”People who get paid to win think abortion will matter.”
Abortion IS their best issue. That’s what the problem is for them. They know they are underwater (with the middle of the electorate) on all the issues that rank as more important.
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Jan – If you come to HHR for affirmation, you won’t get it from me. While I am sure there are many things we agree about, I will never agree with your worship of Trump. Don’t deny it. You do. I will never support isolationism like you do.
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I just freed several posts from Tina and Phil. They were caught as spam. I don’t know why.
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Breaking: Biden announces Puerto Rico as 51st state, by executive order, and to compensate for years of neglect, they will be awarded 200 electoral votes in the 2024 election.
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Press Secretary says Biden has a team to deal with problems like a nuclear attack after 8:00 p.m. Good to know.
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Jan – rather than take potshots at each other I think we should look at Vance, both in his record/positions, and how he would perform as a President.
I think we have to begin with some “words”…starting with “establishment.” You, and Vance, use this as a pejorative. Those that rail against the “establishment” have this notion that being a politician/elected leader is a simple task that requires no skill, and anyone dropped into this role should be able to excel at it. Therein lies problem 1 with Vance.
Being an elected official, well you’re correct, anyone can become one. Look at the Pauls, the Squad, AOC, MTG. They are awful politicians, with no concept of how to lead, or be accomplished in their roles. All would make horrible Governors and worse Presidents. Vance has very similar characteristics to this group.
Being an effective leader in office is a skill set. It is the ability to manage a number of different positions, to not just represent the electorate who chose you, but those who didn’t. It’s know that is best, and having to make the hard choices. Vance has none of these traits.
Vance, similar to many hard core leftists and MAGA types has an uncanny ability to NOT lead. Vance is the type of politician that does not desire to grow, he myopically believe he is right, and anyone who doesn’t completely, 100% agree with him, is “establishment” and therefore must go. Similar to the sniveling child on the playground who loses, grabs the ball, and threatens to go home with it unless everyone either changes the rules to benefit him, or does exactly as he says…so he is the winner, Vance doesn’t want to be a leader. He wants purity and fidelity.
While he does enough to stay as a representative of some of those in Ohio, if he were chosen as VP he could some day be the President of the US. That means he would be the President of ALL Americans, not just the small MAGA portion of America. Vance does not have the skill set to understand he represents all the states, all the people of varying interests and that he may not be right at times.
Vance will bugger down and, double down, on his hard core belief that his is the only policy position that should be instituted. He will decimate our foreign policy, our military. He will be wildly unpopular and drag down the rest of the party. There is no room for growth, and that’s not a spurious claim, it is demonstrated by his time in office. He has become even more obstinate in his conspiracy theory, deep state, anti-establishment mantra based policy positions.
Vance is a bad choice because he’s a populist. A populist rides a wave of short term emotion without long term planning, and the ability to compromise and see the larger picture. To get something, many times you need to give something. Vance is not that man. He, as mentioned above, is a take my ball and go home kind of person. We have had enough of those Presidents with Obama and Biden…we don’t need a Vance.
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Vic – As I have said for decades, the only way to get into the Establishment is to win elections. The only goal of running for office should be to win elections. Any elected official who rails against the Establishment is a hypocrite.
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The goal of running for office should be to serve the people as best you can…after you win the election of course.
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Jan probably thinks that MTG is a genius. I think she is a moron who often votes the right way. She rivals AOC for stupidity.
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AOC and MTG had quite the verbal cat fight during a committee hearing a couple months ago. Each is an embarrassment to their party.
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“If you come to HHR for affirmation, you won’t get it from me”
Bitter, I honestly don’t know where or how you could possibly get that drift from me. I know you are unchangeable, dug in, with concrete poured over your opinions. My post’s contents are what I, and I alone believe, with no ulterior motives of trying to sway people’s thinking like retllaw, you, Paul or others.
Vic, political opinions come in all shapes and sizes. What you may view as an effective or ineffective leader may be very different than someone else’s image of them. I’m not sure what Vance has said or done that convinced you he was such an inferior guy, however, my calculations of his merits and life experiences do not point to him as a “moron.” A person who escaped an impoverished childhood, joined the military, graduated from a prestigious university, wrote a best seller bio, made into a movie, winning a Senate seat, married a successful attorney, has cogently spoken at overseas affairs, speaks assertively for conservative principles is the voice of someone different from the same old, same old type of politician who does nothing for the people.
Furthermore, being a “populist,” IMO, is a good thing, because they are more in sync with the wishes and needs of ordinary people. Trump has succeeded where most have failed because he says what many are thinking – about our own border invasion, the outsourcing of jobs, the rising costs of energy, the over regulation and red tape inhibiting growth, the corrupt behavior of leaders, how small American communities have been ignored and/or disseminated. Vance is aware of much of this because he lived it, survived it, and is now in government acting as an opposing force trying to correct these flaws and injustices. I also don’t picture him as being wildly unpopular, nor taking his ball home if he doesn’t get what he wants. Instead, I see him as standing his ground, augmenting Trump’s policies, adding morale to the military and being a fresh honest face in a political arena full of tired old ones.
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Jan – Many of your posts are just copying links and tweets. The danger of populism is that is that it is often anger without a plan. Being against everything is easy. Being for something is harder.
As for Vance’s list of accomplishments, I also married a successful attorney. Do you want me in office?
Oprah and Michelle Obama also wrote best selling autobios. Do you want them in office?
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Here is something better to listen to than a J. D. Vance or Trump speech.
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Within your answer is the problem that I have with Vance, the most virulent MAGA supporters, et al. You conflate “populism” with “conservatism”. Just as the Ron Paul sycophants are not “conservatives,” though they try to co-opt the term, neither are “populist”.
Populism is a fad based form of politics that changes with political whims. There is no lasting doctrine. We saw in the late 1800’s until 1920, and it’s the same now. It is short term thinking that appeals to the current anger of the electorate, and has no long term sustainable plan.
Your comment on Vance demonstrates this principle. You stated “has cogently spoken at overseas affairs, speaks assertively for conservative principles,” when he doesn’t. His view on “overseas affairs” is…he doesn’t have one. He advocates for us to abandon our allies, close our doors to participation in the global world, and put on blinders to anything happening outside our own borders. It is a myopic policy at best, and sadly dangerous in the long term. It shows his inability to learn and adjust after ascending to office, and is the antithesis of Conservatism. His positions do not lift up our military, they marginalize its purpose.
I think would be disaster of an addition to the ticket, and worse if he ascended to the office of President.
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Why does this site hate YouTube? It was Bryan Adams’ Summer of 69.
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Trump/Vance?
Trump would be a fool to pick Vance.
The Dems could come up with all sorts of slogans and oems about
Trump/Vance
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“Trump and Vance, not a chance!”
“Trump going on a bunch of rants”
“Can Trump keep it in his pants?”
“Not one, but TWO ‘can’ts’”
“How many pardons of themselves can felons grants”
“Can’t win in Ameria, go try France”
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”Jan – Many of your posts are just copying links and tweets”
I’ll be sure to not post what others are saying anymore, to what has become a closed society of answers here. Be assured, though, that my observations about Vance, no matter how unpopular they are here, are my own. Like I already posted, don’t be trembling in your shoes, as I doubt Trump will have the nerve to pick someone as independent-minded as Vance.
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Don’t whine. A simple GFY would suffice.
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Jan – were not closed to new ideas, we don’t agree with those you espouse. I think I have done a good job of supporting why I believe the isolationists/populist positions are not ones I support.
You don’t agree with me, I don’t agree with you on this, but there are lots of things we agree on. The need for a strong border. The need for better fiscal policy (I do not believe in shutting down the government, but in prudent planning to trim the budget). Lower taxes. Less regulations. So see…we agree on more than we disagree.
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General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Trump 44
Biden 40
Kennedy 6
Stein 1
West 1
Trump 46
Biden 43
Trump 49
Harris 43
Trump 48
Newsom 40
Trump 48
Whitmer 38
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
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Thanks MG
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Evangelical leaders which represent a large portion of the GOP base are opposing the Trump led GOP platform revisions toward a pro choice position. This issue could end up costing the GOP on Election Day.
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Christianity is our moral center and provides our most cherished ideals. Conservatives should be defending what makes us a nation, recovering the principles of our Christian political tradition.
Instead, they’re busy tending the dying embers of neoliberalism.
-Sen. @HawleyMO at NatCon 4
TRUE!
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Jeff – I missed the pro choice movement. Can you explain to me what they are trying to put in. I pray to God they are not.
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The attempt to eradicate social issues from the GOP platform has happened before. Prior to Reagan, Republican candidates also wished to have no ties to faith voters committed to the cause of life. They had a lackluster constituency largely devoid of enthusiasm. Reagan’s moral vision created a political revolution.
You cannot beat passion (even for the wrong things) with sterile self-interest. The ideologically enthusiastic base is the energy that pushes the train forward.
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https://www.christianpost.com/news/trump-proposes-gop-platform-that-softens-stance-on-abortion.html
Also same sex marriage and federal funding for abortion. I knew Trump was going to push this crap.
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It’s a states rights issue no need to change national platform.
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I am a pro life Christian. I’m also a pragmatist. The reality is most voters support keeping abortion legal. This is a losing issue for the Republican party. As long as Trump and the Republican party don’t promote abortion l support their decision to remove any language concerning abortion in their platform.
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Pragmatism over principle is what has destroyed this nation.
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Literally zero women or Democrats who weren’t voting for Trump will now support him because of the RNC platform change.
But many Christians, conservatives, and principled voters who Trump takes for granted may very well sit out or vote third party because of the RNC platform change.
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A genuine conservative like DeSantis will never have a chance on the national stage ever again in my lifetime. I have accepted that reality. So I really don’t care what the GOP does anymore.
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Principles over pragmatism loses elections. I’m not saying don’t have principles, but when they are unpopular there is no need to be so public about it. The Republican party can still have a pro life stance without it being in the platform. There are many issues that Republicans support that are not in its platform.
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Well some people who have gotten wind of what’s going on in the platform committee …are reporting they prefer the old school DEM pro choice position. Which is exactly where Trump stands if you take the time to listen to him.
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“Never” should never be used in predicting the future.
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I was opposed to gay marriage because words have meaning and marriage already had a definition. I was ok with civil unions.
Now that gay marriage has been legal for several years I have come to a stunning conclusion. Gay married people are as boring as straight married people.
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