According to a new poll from National Public Affairs:
 | NEVADA – National Public Affairs |
| Trump | 49 |
| Biden | 39 |
| Five Candidates: | |
| Trump | 42 |
| Biden | 33 |
| Kennedy | 12 |
| West | 3 |
| Stein | 2 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Brown | 33 |
| Rosen | 41 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
55 responses to “Trump up 9 points in NEVADA”
NV is trending out of play.
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Biden crashing on betting markets because NYT says he told “an ally” he was considering dropping out.
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It looks like Trump vs Harris at this point. Biden is all but finished and Democrats can’t pass up the black woman who is next in line…especially since she is the only candidate that the Democrats can legally transfer the Biden two hundred million dollar war chest to. — Phil
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He is probably waiting to see if there will be enough lucid moments in his interview on Friday that can be edited together to save him.
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Very possible, bitter. — Phil
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https://www.rvmnews.com/2024/07/moderate-mutiny-25-house-dems-in-competitive-districts-set-call-biden-to-end-it-video/
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WH denies NYT story as fake news, but the damage is done.
@AndrewJBates46
That claim is absolutely false. If the New York Times had provided us with more than 7 minutes to comment we would have told them so”
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BIDEN’S DEBATE DEBACLE
Joe came out all flustered and woozy
His performance? BAD!—t’was a real doozy!
Was he hitting son’s crack pipe or hitting the booze-y?
Whatever it was, it sure was NEWSY!
—-
Joe’s performance was awful, so very humongous
Proved he sure wasn’t the best choice among us
His woke administration is certainly bogus
Inept, and as ugly as a full body fungus.
——
He froze, stumbled, searched for a word
But all he did was lay a continual big turd
So the Dems their loins they must now gird
And make people forget all they saw and they heard.
Dems mode now is all panic city
Joe was not good, not even witty
His performance was rotten, some say sh.!.ty
Less chance to win than the dead Conway Twitty.
Dems are panicked and all in a frump
Joe left on the stage a big poopy dump
Joe gets destroyed by Donald J. Trump!
Do they keep Joe & take it in the rump?
—
Most now admit that Joe’s lost his groove
Must act now and old Joe remove
The “D Woke Way” they must prove
Is best–and continue their power over U.S. treasure trove.
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CNN has a poll where only 1/3 of Dems want Biden to drop out.
Doesn’t say much for Kamala’s popularity.
Le’s face it, probably most of us want Biden to stay in because replacing him with Kamala introduces new dynamics.
But 3 months ago when the race was tied if anyone asked us who do you prefer to run against I bet the vast majority would have said Kamala.
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If Harris does step in, she is going to be more difficult to beat than most expect. First woman President? That will appeal to some who would otherwise stay home.
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Remember, HHR is not normal or the real world. That said, Harris has her own problems. If she says that Biden sucked, she is either admitting she was part of his failures OR ineffective in steering Biden to better policies.
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With all due respect, I can not imagine she would do better than Hillary Clinton, how was soundly beaten in the electoral college. Clinton, for all her negatives, is an intelligent woman who had serious policy chops (albeit it bad policy), international as well as domestic experience. Kamala puts the term “empty suit” to shame. Will she get a few women to vote for her just because she’s a woman…yes. Enough to stop the Titanic. No
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Well, the bar for Harris is at rat level. I think she can reach that.
Chicon
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I can’t believe all the hand wringing over facing Kamala Harris in a general election. Seriously, if Harris gets elected President the country deserves what it gets.
she makes Biden look like a Rhodes scholar, FDR and Socrates rolled into one
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Vic – Every possible Democrat starts with a base of immovable Trump haters. Trump has a base of immovable supporters, too. Who wins the rest?
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Imo, Republicans should be doing what Scott Jennings did on CNN. He pointed out that Big Joe can’t run the country NOW. The Dems are trying to push him out in January; Republicans should be pushing for him to resign if he’s unable to run. Makes it harder to avoid Harris.
I know Bitter is concerned about her, and he could be right. I doubt, though, if many Dems would choose her if they could freely pick the best candidate to beat Trump.
Chicon
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from Biden’s team, who probably crafted this sentence for him: “I am running. I am the leader of the Democratic Party. No one is pushing me out. I’ve been knocked down before and counted out my whole life. When you get knocked down you get back up.”
You can do it Joe! Keep running! You can get up once more!
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2024 GE: NYT/
@SienaResearch
Likely voters
🟥 Trump: 49% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 43% [-1]
It is the largest lead Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015.
——
Registered voters
🟥 Trump: 49% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 41% [-1]
——
Full field (LV)
🟥 Trump: 42% [+2]
🟦 Biden: 37% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr: 8% [+1]
🟩 Stein: 2% 🟪 Oliver: 1%
Full field RV
🟥 Trump: 40% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 33% [+1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 10% [+1]
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
[+/- change vs June 25]
——
Biden (LV)
🟢 Approve: 36%
🔴 Disapprove: 61%
——
538: #1 (3.0/3.0) | 1,353 LV | 6/28-7/2
https://nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html
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Silverhack is going to have to ban Siena/NY Times now too…
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DW – no, they go along with the narrative. There was a reason they wanted to have the debate in June, and this is it. Now the deluge of horrible polls allows them (the leaders of the party) to sit in a room and decide, stick with Joe or get someone else.
One scenario we haven’t thought about, or talked about I should say, is Joe resigning for health reasons (helped by the debate), keeping this image as a benevolent man who fought for the common guy and had a great Presidency, meanwhile, they get Kamala to be a sitting President, the first Woman President btw, which is harder to beat.
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Suck it , Kamala…
Joe Biden
“Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
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If Harris does step in, she is going to be more difficult to beat than most expect.”
I doubt it.
So do a lot of Dems.
That is why 2/3rd want Biden to stay in.
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Kampala will do worse than demented.
She is unlikeable – her Thighness /loon Cheney hybrid.
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Maybe among Bitter’s liberal wine sipping friends and neighbors who hate Trump there is a woman who would vote for Kamala because she is a woman.
I don’t know any women like that. Not one. I know some women who will vote for Kamala because she is a Dem, but because she is a woman? Nah.
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Devastating Report: Biden Started Debate Prep at 11am, NAPPED Hours Later
https://conservativebrief.com/report-to-84148/?utm_source=CB&utm_medium=ProTrumpNews
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It would be nice if a R Ag arrested this clown.
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/fauci-tries-to-come-to-the-rescue-says-biden-looked-completely-fine-mace/?utm_medium=agg&utm_source=economics
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With the Presidential immunity decision, we cannot
Prosecute the obumbler for killing an American abroad.
Prosecute demented for harvesting and transporting illegals.
Prosecute Mute 43 for lying about wmds
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No one is pushing me out,” the president added, also saying, “I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end, and we’re going to win.”
Moments later, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated Biden’s comments at a press briefing, telling reporters that the president is “absolutely not” considering stepping down.”
I guess they can try the 25th amendment, but good luck with that.
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Chi – But will the DNC allow them to freely choose a different candidate? If Dem voters are stuck with a choice between Harris or Trump, I doubt any vote for Trump.
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Prosecute Mute 43 for lying about wmds”
Zzzzzz….. he didn’t “lie about wmds”.
He relied on the intelligence that every western leader believed in.
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I suppose House Democrats could try asking the GOP majority to impeach Biden.
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Once the MSM is convinced Biden is really staying in they will start the “GREATEST COMEBACK OF ALL TIME” meme.
Bet on it.
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Looks like Dr. Fauci is giving his medical opinion on Biden. Of course Fauci is a immunologist who probably hasn’t seen a patient in 50 years and hasn’t examined Biden.
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump·
“There ought to be some kind of a Statistic kept on Presidential Candidates who have knocked their opponent totally out of the Race through a single Debate. The excuses are coming by the minute: International Travel, a Cold, Waning Public Support, Polls, etc. But, as everyone with a “brain” knows, it was the TOTAL Annihilation and Destruction of Crooked Joe Biden, at the hands and mind of President Donald J. Trump, that did him in – And probably for good!” Attorney David Schoen
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Trump should keep quiet and let the Dems self destruct.
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Wow, Biden has a great plan to lower grocery prices.
Yep, this is brilliant.
Of course, the millions they spend defending themselves will be passed on to the consumers.
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YES! Send her a check…
Jill Stein announces “surge in support” after debate.
https://www.newsweek.com/jill-stein-biden-debate-cognitive-issues-green-third-party-1920503?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1720026461
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Biden is doing everything possible to implode and Trump wants to scream, “Look at me! Pay attention to me!” Does he have any self-discipline?
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Ok. Trump reposted something from somebody else. Still stupid.
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Biden should just cut to the chase and declare all grocery stores to be 503c charitable organizations that pass along all the food to consumers at cost, and take a loss when giving the food to illegals.
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If he quits, Biden has already written his endorsement of Kamala
”I mean, you got the first mainstream African-adjacent, Asian Indian (dot) female who is (in)articulate, and bight-me and clean and a nice-looking dame. She even worked a 7/11. That’s a storybook, man.”
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LOL
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It just keeps piling on…
WSJ – Presidential General Election
Trump 48% (+6)
Biden 42%
Other/Und 10%
1,500 RV, 6/29-7/2
Fabrizio (R) / Impact Research (D)
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-expands-lead-over-biden-after-debate-as-voters-age-worries-grow-wsj-poll-finds-c3a793ab
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Baris tweet:
Erie County, PA. Northhampton, PA. Juneau County, WI. Saginaw County, MI. Genesee County, MI. Maricopa County, AZ. Etc. etc. etc. Forget the palace intrigue. The only question is: Would this woman do better there than Joe Biden? No. Absolutely not.
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and another…
2024 GE:
@J_L_Partners
|
@DailyMail
🟥 Trump: 43% [=]
🟦 Biden: 37% [-2]
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
🟩 Stein: 2%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟨 West: 2%
⬜ Undecided: 7%
[+/- change vs March]
— 145 (1.6/3.0) | 1,000 LV | July 1-3
Its starting to look like a 1987 wrestling match between Hulk Hogan and “Mr. X.”
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BREAKING: A new low:
Biden Job Approval now at net -20.0
37.1 / 57.1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
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DW – Harris would do as well or better than Biden in Montgomery County, PA. She would match Biden in Philadelphia. She might do slightly worse in Bucks and Delaware Counties. PA is going to be close regardless of the Dem nominee.
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She would do worse than Biden in York and Lancaster and generally in PA with blue collar workers.
Biden still has some inroads as “Scranton Joe” the champion of the working class, but Kamala a a liberal California type politician has zero appeal to this group.
My view is she would run about 3 or 4 points behind Biden, pretty much putting the state out of reach for the Dems.
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ouch:
Raúl Grijalva (D, AZ-7):
“If he’s the candidate, I’m going to support him, but I think that this is an opportunity to look elsewhere,” Grijalva said in an interview. Referring to Biden, Grijalva added, “What he needs to do is shoulder the responsibility for keeping that seat — and part of that responsibility is to get out of this race.”
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In deep red PA counties, where Trump is already getting close to 80% of the vote, the R vote is probably maxed out already.
But yeah, places like Erie, Lancaster, York, Bucks, Cumberland, etc. the Dems can still bleed votes with Kamala.
I agree with Bitter that Kamala won’t do worse in Philadelphia and probably Montco than Biden, but she would have to do considerably better to overcome losses elsewhere. But considering the lopsided vote for Biden in 2020 in these two counties, only with significantly increased turnout can you get much better numbers, and that implies an enthusiasm for Kamala I don’t think is there.
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Normally, I yawn at national POTUS polls and focus on state polling, because its an election decided by the mathematics of the electoral votes of the states, not a direct popular vote.
But here is a case where in one day, three national polls with Trump +6, and suddenly its the state polling that doesn’t really matter. If +6 is true, and it appears to be, at least for today, then Trump is sitting on at least 314 EVs. Probably closer to 329, with room to grow.
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Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, who is attending Wednesday’s White House meeting with Democrats and is viewed as a possible replacement if Biden should step aside, told CNN the president “needs to communicate more” if he plans to rectify his poor debate performance.”
Wow, that is some profound sh-t there….
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Translation:
told CNN the president “needs to communicate more” so he will completely crash and burn and everyone will DEMAND he be replaced with someone like me.
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NT
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