Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
56 responses to “Some stats to start the week.”
This is the 501st thread at HHR Phoenix. There are 28 subscribers. This should count the active posters as well as the lurkers. DW has done an amazing job of creating order out of polling chaos.
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Thanks Bitter for keeping all this going! More stats…HHR had 223 comments on the debate thread while RRH had only 66 on their debate thread
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This week will be dominated by talk about Biden’s candidacy. Rumors swirl, everything from a firm NO, he is staying the course to talks are under way on how to deliver the news of his departure. One rumor out there is that Biden will announce he’s dropping out today.
I am seeing some strength to the Soft-Coup theory, that the debate was an inside job where his handlers did not medicate Biden, knowing he would would perform terribly, so he would be forced out.
Explains why the debate was in June, why the CNN moderators were fair to Trump, and why the collective media was ready to express their shock at Biden’s condition when they knew this already.
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You know I am not into conspiracies. Sometimes, the truth is simple. Biden’s handlers thought that the narrative that Trump is Satan would be enough to win. Biden’s debate blew that up.
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SCOTUS opinions are usually released at 10:00.
I expect that SCOTUS will hold 7-2 that Presidents have immunity for official acts but a sliding scale on other undefined acts. Libs will howl that Trump should have no immunity for anything.
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SCOTUS blog has a countdown to 9:30. Stay tuned.
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Now SCOTUS says 10:00. 9:30 is when chat opens.
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I agree with Bitter. No conspiracy except that Biden had the questions. They practiced them for 6 days, but without a teleprompter he couldn’t remember the script. They thought without the distraction of Trump talking over him he would have been able to remember rehearsed lines for 15 previously discussed questions.
They thought Biden would hold his own and that could be sold as a big win, “see, there is no problem”.
Instead, it backfired in a big way.
The reason they wanted an early debate was not to “test” Biden, it was to change the narrative. Epic fail.
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I get it, there was no grassy knoll behind CNN’s debate stage. I don’t know what to make of it all, but what I meant by saying I see some strengths of the Soft-Coup theory is that unlike most conspiracy theories, it explains all the behavior and doesn’t create any worse unresolved problems. But I guess it would beg the question, why not just force him out? Why use the debate to get rid of him? Unless it was because the private pleadings went unanswered.
I guess we will learn more as the week unfolds. I am still thinking they are stuck with Biden, although it wouldn’t be too great a shock if he was replaced. I don’t buy the argument that no one else on the Dem side could beat Trump based on polling. Of course in this situation polls would look bad for the Dem in any Trump vs. [fill in any vanilla Dem senator].
But once that new replacement candidate had a few weeks and the populace got to know the candidate, those poll numbers against Trump would improve. Enough to beat Trump? Perhaps, but that goes back to candidate quality. Time will tell.
But at this point I am leaning toward Jill Biden refusing to step down.
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why the CNN moderators were fair to Trump”
I don’t think they were that “fair” to Trump.
They gave Biden the questions. They prompted him to use his time when he failed to do so. Dana Bash kept giving him hand signals on where to look on the camera.
And there were really no hard questions for Biden.
“You say inflation is “down”. But it is not really down is it, it is merely not rising as much. Prices are still 25% higher at least than when you took office is it not?”
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But once that new replacement candidate had a few weeks and the populace got to know the candidate, those poll numbers against Trump would improve.”
Why?
I think the exact opposite would happen. The generic Dem always polls better than anyone you give a name to.
All these “dark horses’ have vulnerabilities. “Getting to know” what they are will make their polls numbers go down, not up.
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fair enough…for CNN and how I would have expected, they seemed fair enough. Even Trump said they were fair.
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Because of Trump. Double-haters would eventually warm to the Dem because (s)he is not as bad as Trump.
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Newsome? Rs would have a field day pointing out his failures in CA and his personal baggage.
Whitmer? Who shut down garden centers and gave her husband special boating privileges/
The other names on the “list” besides Kamala are Michelle Obama, Hillary, Mayor Butt, Pritzker, RFK Jr (?), Shapiro, Bernie, Fauxcahontas, Stacey Abrams (!), AOC…
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination
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Because of Trump. Double-haters would eventually warm to the Dem because (s)he is not as bad as Trump.”
Not sure I even buy into that theory.
It depends on why they hate Biden. If they hate because of their economic situation, that won’t change.
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Even Trump said they were fair.”
He is a nice guy.
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Totally agree that Newsom would be a disaster for Dems. The biggest problem they have is with pushing Kamala aside. But that’s the DEI bed they made, now they have to sleep in it. Shapiro could give Trump a tough race. Not saying he would win, but probably would be closer than sticking with Biden and wouldn’t cause as much damage down the ballot.
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95% or more of Americans don’t follow politics like we do.
I would hazard outside of MI the vast majority of voters have no idea who Gretchen Whitmer is.
You would have just a few months to transform her into someone people are comfortable with as President, starting by explaining why a white woman should bypass a black woman VP.
The MSM would certainly help, and you can argue they elevated Obama from a glorified community rabblerouser to President in about 2 years.
But Obama was a clean slate, all they did is fill in the blanks, and they made him into a political God by inventing a resume for him. Nobody else is a clean slate, they have records.
In politics, anything can happen, but I think this “project” is not as easy as DW thinks it is.
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oh I don’t think its easy for them. But what is clearly hard to do is successfully run a dementia patient and win.
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Shapiro could give Trump a tough race”
I agree.
But tell me how a practicing Jew who states those against Zionists are anti-semites and the US and Israel have a “moral obligation” to eradicate Hamas gets nominated in today’s Dem party. You think he would be acceptable to the Squad? Yesterday Ilhan Omarhad a rally in MI with the President of Somalia without word of English or ONE American flag.
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Uh, rally in MN not MI.
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Shapiro could be nominated by the Dems IF he is has the best chance to beat Trump. They play to win. IF they push out a President, telling the anti-Semitic Dems to STFU for a few months is easy.
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What got Shapiro elected in PA (fake moderate) won’t sell to the Democratic base so I think he is a non-starter.
IF he was able to get nominated, he would be a good candidate for the GE, although he might have trouble winning MI.
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“You think he would be acceptable to the Squad?” Absolutely not. But thankfully the squad doesn’t get to choose our president, much less the Dem candidate.
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I agree that the most likely outcome is they stick with the demented in chief. But if they find another way that gives them a better shot, and better protections against a wipeout in the congressional races, they will take that way.
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Shapiro could be nominated by the Dems IF he is has the best chance to beat Trump”
BS.
The Dem party is run by anti-Semitic Dems.
“More than four-in-ten Democrats (45%) say Israel is going too far in its military operation against Hamas, compared with 12% of Republicans.”
We know the Dems are afraid to do anything that alienates the far left of the party.
They are not nominating Shapiro.
Taking bets
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But if they find another way that gives them a better shot, and better protections against a wipeout in the congressional races, they will take that way.”
The only way to do that is convince Jill Biden and Kamala Harris BOTH to agree.
Good luck with that.
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Ten days and counting until the bat crazy insane NY judge tries to send Trump to jail.
He has no doubt got the call from the Democratic cabal to drop the hammer on Trump. Biden must be saved. It’s the only card they have left to play after the debate.
Trump sentence to jail or house arrest to prevent him from campaigning.
The media throws a ticker tape parade.
The gals on The View have on the air orgasms
Trump raises 300 million in the first 24 hours after the sentence is pronounced.
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When you weed out the posts from some idiot talking about his vegetables and pig farming, the nonsensical attacks on Tina and Jan, the constant stupid copy-and-paste posts from MAGA-related websites, I am not sure that the actual posts regarding the debate will actually exceed those of HHR.
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10/10 Dems want Trump to lose. That is the prize they want.
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I invite Anonymous to post the link to his or her blog so we can read it.
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SCOTUS blog – Absolute immunity for core constitutional acts. Which means? Waiting….
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No immunity for unofficial acts….
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Remanded.
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Jackson’s dissent is basically a Vote Democrat rallying cry.
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The Supreme Court rules that President Trump has absolute immunity on official acts and no immunity on unofficial acts. So who defines what is official and what is unofficial?
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Sotomayor fears for democracy.
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When you weed out the posts from some idiot talking about his vegetables and pig farming, the nonsensical attacks on Tina and Jan, the constant stupid copy-and-paste posts from MAGA-related websites, I am not sure that the actual posts regarding the debate will actually exceed those of HHR.”
You are free to leave and GFY anytime.
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So who defines what is official and what is unofficial?”
The Democrats.
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Was it 6-3 or 7-2?
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6-3
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Found this on social media, not sure if its true nor not…
WISCONSIN — It’s already too late to remove Joe Biden from the ballot.
NEVADA—After tonight, the fourth Friday in June, it will be too late to remove Joe Biden.
GEORGIA—Only a few weeks remain before it will be too late to remove Biden from the ballot.
Wisconsin does not allow withdrawal from the ballot for any reason besides death. In Nevada, no changes can be made to the ballot after 5 p.m. on the fourth Friday in June of an election year or a nominee dies or is adjudicated insane or mentally incompetent.’ If Biden were to withdraw less than 60 days before the election Georgia his name will remain on the ballot but no votes will be counted. In Texas, the two party’s nominees have until the 74th day before the election to withdraw from the ballot. Some states, like South Carolina, do not allow candidates to withdraw for political reasons.
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First female President makes the cover of Vogue!
https://x.com/nypost/status/1807731835079660002/photo/1
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In the result, it is 7-2. Barrett concurred in the result. She only disagreed with III-C. She would leave open possibility for prosecution for crimes in office like bribery.
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Wisconsin does not allow withdrawal from the ballot for any reason besides death.”
See, always a loophole.
And according to DW, the Dems will do what they have to do.
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In the result, it is 7-2.”
Which liberal voted for immunity?
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New math fails you.
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Just now finding this Chris Wallace gem:
Chris Wallace (halfway crying): “Joe Biden agreed to this debate tonight because he needed to change the narrative, and he changed it. He sunk his campaign.”
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The opinion was 7-2. There were 2 dissents. 9-2 = 7.
Thomas also wrote a concurring opinion.
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so it was Kagan that agreed with the majority?
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Unlike the Anonymous Coward, I admit when I am wrong. It was 6-3. However, only Jackson and Sotomayor wrote dissents. Kagan joined Sotomayor’s opinion.
Did I miss Anonymous Coward’s summary of the opinions within minutes of being released?
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Speaking of the SCOTUS, here are the ages of each member, further underscoring the importance of the election this year:
Thomas 76
Alito 74
Sotomayor 70
Roberts 69
Kagan 64
Kavanaugh 59
Gorsuch 56
Jackson 53
Barrett 52
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Did Anonymous Coward predict the decision? I have prescription reading glasses so maybe I missed it.
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Point, Jason! Points! The Anonymous Coward has no substantive response.
Maybe it is the poster who was the Great Connecticut Conservative Lawyer who made money representing local Democrat governments.
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NT
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