According to a new Emerson College poll
 | MISSOURI – Emerson |
| Trump | 53 (Lean: 57) |
| Biden | 40 (Lean: 43) |
| Undecided | 7 |
| Five Candidates: | |
| Trump | 50 |
| Biden | 35 |
| Kennedy | 7 |
| West | 1 |
| Stein | 1 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Hawley | 47 |
| Kunce | 38 |
| Other | 5 |
| Undecided | 10 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
52 responses to “Trump safe in Missouri”
Politico worried about MN and WI blacks voting for Biden…
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/06/21/biden-black-voters-enthusiasm-gap-milwaukee-00163496
LikeLike
jason Slava Ukraini!
June 21, 2024 at 9:22 am
Clinton couldn’t unload on an intern without without it being known but nobody ever talked about a vast conspiracy to kill a President? Zzzzzzzz.”
Exactly. But hey, the cousin of a friend of a maid of a neighbor overheard a conversation about someone who was at Daley Plaza and heard a gunshot from the “grassy knoll”.
This is of course contrary to every serious analysis, the video, and the physical evidence itself. Countless recreations have been made and they all point to Oswald firing 3 shots from a rifle from the window of the book depository and then escaping and killing a cop before he was apprehended. All other “versions” are unmitigated BS. “Grassy knoll”, “impossible bullet”, yadayadayada, all debunked dozens of times.
JeffP probably believes “Bush planted bombs in the twin towers, timed to the exact moment CIA suicide bombers flew into the building as a plot to start a war in Afghanistan, except the Pentagon, where no plane ever hit it, that plane was kidnapped”.
As Vic said, the amount of people and resources necessary to carry out these stupid conspiracy theories would make it impossible to ever keep secret.
Can’t wait for JeffP to tell us how the Apollo moon landing was “staged”.
LikeLike
One of the greatest TRUE conspiracy theories was the 1974 Azorian project to recover the sunken Soviet submarine K-129 from the Pacific Ocean floor using the custom designed ship, the Hughes Glomar Explorer.
The ruse was that this ship was supposed to be a pioneer in mining minerals from the ocean floor. They even staged an episode of NOVA pushing this idea. But hundreds of employees who were involved in critical design aspects of the ship knew what it was really for, and remarkably, word did not leak out until they had recovered a portion of the Soviet sub.
The official story is that the sub broke apart during the lift and we got only one-third of it. I showed the documentary to an acquaintance of mine who happened to be a Navy commander. He watched it, and told me not to believe everything they say, even though it was declassified. He saw evidence in the documentary that we might have actually recovered the whole thing, but claimed only a third, so as to still be hiding something from the Russians.
LikeLike
Another great conspiracy theory is that a group of guys convinced History Channel to pay them for years to look for a non-existent treasure on Oak Island.
LikeLike
Remember when Tgca was positive Trump would end work visa programs that “were stealing American jobs”.
Think again.
Trump Promises Green Cards to All Foreign College Graduates
Former President Donald Trump promised to give permanent resident status to any alien who graduates from any college in an interview on a podcast Thursday. Trump was the guest on “The All-In Podcast” hosted by venture capitalists Chamath Palihapitiya and David Sacks. Sacks hosted a hugely successful fundraiser for Trump in Silicon Valley.
“I think you should get automatically as part of your diplomat a green card to be able to stay in this country. And that includes junior colleges, too. Anybody who graduates from a college, you go in there for two years or four years, if you graduate or you get a doctorate degree from a college you should be able to stay in this country. And you know more stories than I do, but I know of stories where people graduated from a top college or from a college and they desperately wanted to stay here, they had a plan for a company, a concept, and they go back to India, they go back to China, they do the same basic company in those places and they become multi-billionaires, employ thousands and thousands of people and it could have been done here…….they can’t even make a deal with a company because they don’t think they are going to be able to stay in the country. That is going to end on Day One”.
Full disclosure: I personally am not totally against this, but what say the immigration deadenders.
Come from India or China, go to a junior college, get a green card.
Tina, NYC?
Any free passes for Trump.
LikeLike
Trump is wrong. There should be no “automatic” green cards.
There should be a program where green cards are granted to exceptional graduates in fields where it is in OUR interest to retain them.
Automatic green cards for junior college graduates in any field? Horrible idea.
But I can’t wait for Tina to give Trump a free pass on this.
LikeLike
One of the greatest TRUE conspiracy theories was the 1974 Azorian project to recover the sunken Soviet submarine K-129 from the Pacific Ocean floor using the custom designed ship, the Hughes Glomar Explorer.”
That is a great story and I watched the show and read about it too. Fascinating stuff.
But that is not really a “conspiracy” theory. That was a legitimate program to recover the Russian sub and obviously the details of what was found could be a legitimately considered secret and classified. The “ruse” was also not a “conspiracy”, the only intended “victims” of the ruse were the Russians. This falls under espionage, and faking out the enemy is a standard practice in espionage.
LikeLike
Another great conspiracy theory is that a group of guys convinced History Channel to pay them for years to look for a non-existent treasure on Oak Island.”
LOL
Of course, you might say the “conspiracy” here is getting us to watch while both the History Channel and the group of guys make millions.
LikeLike
Another conspiracy, along the same lines as Oak Island, was from 1975, a walk-on practice roster football player for Notre Dame named Rudy Ruettiger was allowed to get into a real game and he recorded a meaningless sack on the final play of the game. A couple of pranksters on the team mockingly carried Ruettiger off the field.
Years later Ruettiger convinced someone that his story was worth making a sports movie out of it, and the 1993 movie Rudy was the result, propelling him to fame and a place on the motivational speaker circuit.
LikeLike
IPSOS did an odd sort of poll where they didn’t really have that big of a sample, and they grouped the battleground states into three groups:
AZ/NV, then the rust belt MI/WI/PA, and the third group, NC and GA. One of the things they asked was how certain voters were to vote, on a scale of 1 (least likely) to 10 (most likely). Here is the average for each category:
AZ/NV:
Trump voters: 4.20
Biden voters: 3.75
Kennedy voters: 2.58
MI/WI/PA:
Trump voters: 4.32
Biden voters: 4.21
Kennedy voters: 2.79
GA/NC:
Trump voters: 4.24
Biden voters: 4.02
Kennedy voters: 2.76
I take away from this that Kennedy is just a placeholder for people to object to the two choices, Trump and Biden. They are not really going to stand in line to vote for Kennedy because they believe in him. In the end, he might struggle to get 3% in the battleground states, not much different from Stein, West, or Oliver.
LikeLike
Here are the toplines IPSOS found among those who said 10 absolutely certain to vote:
AZ/NV: Trump 27% Biden 20%
MI/WI/PA: Trump 25% Biden 25%
GA/NC: Trump 23% Biden 24%
Then the overall numbers:
AZ/NV: Trump 36%, Biden 33%, Kennedy 5%, Other 8%, Don’t know 15%
MI/WI/PA: Trump 37%, Biden 35%, Kennedy 8%, Other 3%, Don’t know 15%
GA/NC: Trump 36%, Biden 36%, Kennedy 4%, Other 4%, Don’t know 14%
Obviously this is a wonky poll, as there is no way there could be 15% Don’t knows, just five months away from the election.
In fact, given the increasing awareness of the lawfare used against Trump, I wonder how many people who say don’t know/undecided, are really going to vote Trump, but are afraid to tell anyone, given the fear of pushback.
I cannot think of any POTUS election in my lifetime where the two candidates were more known than Biden and Trump.
Trump was already president, and Biden has been around forever. Biden and Walt were going to fight in the duel, but were pushed aside by Burr and Hamilton.
LikeLike
Ukraine 2 x Slovakia 1
Sorry Janzam, this happened to you.
In other news, both the Netherlands and Norway say the F-16s they are providing Ukraine are free to strike targets inside Russia.
I bet Janzam will oppose this “escalation”, although she has no problem with the Russians using their planes to bomb targets in Ukraine.
“Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren has reassured Kyiv that the 24 F-16 fighter jets that the Netherlands intends to donate to Ukraine may be used to strike targets inside Russia.
In an interview with POLITICO at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Ollongren said the Netherlands would not impose a limitation as was the case with Belgium, where Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has warned Kyiv not to fly the F-16s it gets from his country in Russian airspace.
“There is not” a Belgian-style restriction, Ollongren said. “We are applying the same principle that we have applied to every other delivery of capabilities, which is once we hand it over to Ukraine, it’s theirs to use,” she said.
LikeLike
Ah, the trend continues for voters in close states to vote Trump for President but a D senator to apply the brakes to possible Trump insanity.
Seems the voters are trying to be Soloman and proposing to split the baby (government).
LikeLike
SSQ texted me after she read the headline on this thread.
“Trump safe in Missouri”
She wants to know what is IN the safe?
Why is it in Missouri and not in FL where Trump resides?
LikeLike
Walt, I am still a bit agnostic on the senate races, waiting for the campaigns to get into high gear. The reality is, historically, that incumbents have a huge advantage, and they are hard to unseat, unless there is a particular scandal, or something like that. The golden age of presidential coat-tails has long been over. Ticket splitting has been a reality for a while now.
Cruz and Scott are also incumbents and they are not being seriously challenged. But the Democrats are the ones with more incumbents that happen to be up for re-election in states where they can be reasonably challenged. It doesn’t really surprise me that in June the polling shows all incumbents on both sides of the isle doing fairly well.
However, in the end, I see these races tightening as the challengers soften up the voters with ads and mailers, and campaigning. And then there will be an impact due to this being a POTUS election year. My prediction as of now is that Republicans will flip WV, MT, OH, NM, and VA, but fall short in MD, MI, WI, NV, PA and AZ.
I know that these predictions might seem a bit odd. But Hung Cao is the real thing. He did well in his attempt to win the house seat two years ago, and he is the exact opposite of the empty suit Tim Kaine. The NM race is just a hunch.
LikeLike
Law enforcement raiding top politicians in NJ.
Lae officials raiding top politicians in CA.
What is going on?
******************************
I say lots corruption on state and local government levels by various elected D officials.
District Attorney (or was it prostitution attorney?) in Baltimore fraud… illegally taking COVID PPP money to buy houses in FL
NJ big bust earlier this week…
Oakland CA mayor…
County official in a DC suburbs county this week… (he suddenly resigned and then a few days later feds charge with embezzlement of $125,000–campaign money I think)
An elected AA judge is some southern state for all kins of fraud and financial stuff…
******************************************
I think the Dems have found ways new to abuse and misuse both taxpayer funds including the crush of COVID money) and campaign funds
BTW, ALL perp are Dems, and in all these cases except NJ, the alleged perps are all persons of color since the Okland mayor is a Hmong. (I guess you can call me racist for pointing this out–but I say it has to be the racist media who publish these stories).
LikeLike
Wow. This AP article reminds me of when a Dem is charged with a crime, the party is always left out. In this case, “illegal immigrant” and “Venezuela” are left out.
LikeLike
My prediction as of now is that Republicans will flip WV, MT, OH, NM, and VA, but fall short in MD, MI, WI, NV, PA and AZ.”
I think they will flip WV, OH, MT, NV and MD.
I think AZ will be close.
But I would only bet on the first 3.
LikeLike
DW,
“…But Hung Cao is the real thing.)
In these times of the spectacular rise of acceptance of transgenderism it should be of no surprise that we have a “Hung Cao”.
Everyone expects to have a Hung Bull…
LikeLike
Jason, “two men” and it also left out what they did to the girl before strangling her to death.
LikeLike
And of course New Jersey is a question mark, with the potential independent senate run by the incumbent crook Menendez.
But New Jersey remains in the top three states that are criminally under-polled.
LikeLike
–The GA college student…raped and murdered by an illegal alien.
–The NJ mother of 5 who was raped and murdered by an illegal alien.
–The 12 year old girl in Houston who was murdered by two illegal aliens…
–WV woman this month murdered near Martinsburg about 5 miles from me by an illegal alien who also had several weeks earlier severely stabbed three others in next door county who had to be airlifted to facilities in MD.
ALL of these have been done by illegal aliens from central and south America.
How many more…?
*************************************************
–Add in innocent U.S. citizens who have died in car crashes when hit by a van load of illegals trying to outrun law enforcement.
–Add in innocent USL citizens who have died when hit by a car driven by an illegal aliens.
–Add in innocent law enforcement officers who are injured or killed by illegal aliens.
–Add in property loss as a result of theft by illegal aliens.
LikeLike
Walt, this should be in EVERY ad of every GOP candidate. This and the economy are the two clubs that the GOP can use to bludgeon every Democrat candidate.
LikeLiked by 1 person
The latest Civiqs (D) Biden Job approval leaves him with ONLY the state of Hawaii where he has positive job approval, 48/41.
LikeLike
From RRH Elections:
Financial warning signs for Biden and Dems:
“Former President Donald J. Trump out-raised President Biden for the second consecutive month in May, outpacing his successor by roughly $81 million in donations over the last two months as he rode a surge of financial support after his felony conviction.
In May, Mr. Biden’s campaign and its joint operation with the Democratic National Committee raised $85 million, compared with $141 million for Mr. Trump and the Republican National Committee, according to the two campaigns. In April, the Trump team also brought in $25 million more than the Biden team.
The Biden campaign said it entered June with $212 million on hand combined with the party. The Trump operation and R.N.C. have not released a full tally of their cash on hand since the end of March. A partial count on Thursday, revealed in Federal Election Commission filings, showed that Mr. Trump had amassed a war chest of at least $170 million with the party.
Overall, Mr. Trump was a daunting $100 million behind Mr. Biden at the start of April. In two months, he cut that cash deficit by at least half. And for the first time, Mr. Trump’s principal campaign committee had more cash than Mr. Biden’s: $116.5 million to $91.6 million.
LikeLike
You may be opposed to this, but one of my best accomplishments as a State legislator about a dozen years ago–when we Rs were in a DECIDED minority (67-33)–was getting a key amendment passed to deny ILLEGAL ALIENS being awarded State higher ed grants. My amendment passed the House Education committee on which I serve on a 24 for to 1 opposed vote (There were only 8 of us Rs on that committee).
LikeLike
Good work Walt.
LikeLike
I doubt anyone here is opposed to denying higher ed grants to illegals.
LikeLike
Hawaii where he has positive job approval, 48/41.”
Maybe it’s time to make Hawaii into five CA counties.
LikeLike
Poland 1 Austria 1 still in first half.
Earlier today, much to Janzam’s chagrin, Ukraine 2 Slovakia 1.
I know Janzam wants Russia to win the Eurocup but, alas, they are not competing.
“The Russian Football Union has been suspended from all UEFA and FIFA competitions since the invasion of Ukraine”
I am sure Janzam is very upset at this terrible “escalation”, doesn’t FIFA and UEFA know Putin has nukes?
LikeLike
And some people say the Dems are not looking out for you…what an injustice.
Chicago has suffered so many murders from gun violence that the city is now offering to pay out $1,500 in funeral costs to help bereaved families.
The funds will be paid out as part of the Emergency Supplemental Victims Fund and will provide families with finances to help bury their loved ones.
Shooting victims can also receive $1,000 to help cover basic needs like their medical and grocery bills – as well as up to $1,000 for temporary relocation costs.”
LikeLike
“Chicago has suffered so many murders from gun violence that the city is now offering to pay out $1,500 in funeral costs to help bereaved families.”
That’s like that California program years ago that offered to pay to give each homeless person his or her own shopping cart.
LikeLike
I am skeptical this many Dems oppose Garland. Skew this poll.
“Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Republicans, 32% of Democrats and 42% of unaffiliated voters believe Garland is guilty of contempt of Congress.
Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republicans say Garland should be removed from office and sent to jail for refusing to comply with congressional subpoenas, an opinion shared by 34% of Democrats and 37% of voters not affiliated with either major party. “
LikeLike
Democrats in Nevada are DESPERATE to keep RFK off the ballot there. First they rejected his petition because his signatures were collected without a named veep. So he got an entirely new collection of sigs, with his veep, and now they are claiming NV law invalidates his new petition given he is registered as a Dem in New York.
The HHR average in Nevada without Kennedy is Trump +4.4, and with Kennedy its Trump +5.3.
Democrats in Nevada play the game in two ways, DIRTY, and then FILTHY DIRTY. July 5th is the deadline in Nevada for independents to qualify.
LikeLike
In CA_48, Darrell Issa is way ahead according to SUSA, 56-34, while in the POTUS race there, its
Donald Trump: 52%
Joe Biden (inc): 36%
Trump won the district by +12.4 last time.
LikeLike
2024 GE:
@Rasmussen_Poll
🟥 Trump: 49% (+9)
🟦 Biden: 40% 🟪 Other: 7%
🟥 Trump: 46% (+10)
🟦 Biden: 36%
🟨 RFK Jr: 9%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
D35/R33/I32 | 6/20 | 1,000 LV | ±3%
LikeLike
538 has banned Rasmussen because these sort of numbers don’t agree with 538’s desired polling average.
LikeLike
The Dems must have their own polling showing Kennedy hurts them more he does Trump or they wouldn’t be going through such efforts to get him off the ballot.
LikeLike
“The Dems must have their own polling showing Kennedy hurts them more he does Trump or they wouldn’t be going through such efforts to get him off the ballot.”
Yes, in Nevada. If they found the opposite in other states, they would be demanding that he be included in the name of fair play and democracy!
LikeLike
Poland Austria was a good game – I thought Poland was actually going to win it…but Austria found the back of the net twice and it doesn’t appear lewandowski is going to save them. First team eliminated. First time Austria beats Poland in 30 years
LikeLike
The Dem internal polling in New York is clear as well. Two voters backed by the DNC have opened a lawsuit against RFK aimed at keeping him off the ballot. It must indicate that NEW YORK is in play with RFK included. There is only ONE publicly known poll of New York with RFK included, done by Emerson just before this lawsuit was opened up, and it had Trump 38 / BIden 44 / Kennedy 6
LikeLike
the left and the media are so delusional. On key there is a WAPo article out that stated that black support is overstated by trump and he’s lying. In it it states that he brought his “nazis” to the bronx. the wapo states he shouldn’t have gone there because it was an African American and immigrant neighborhood and “sparsely attended”. From the article –
“It’s the same strategy that the campaign deployed when he held a rally in the Bronx: Gather together a modest crowd and then overhype the scale and importance of what happened.”
wasn’t that crowd estimated to be in the tens of thousands?
the media will continue to lie to the American public to save their Stalinist left wing government
LikeLike
I was rooting for Poland.
GFYs.
LikeLiked by 1 person
So Biden left today for Camp David, will be holed up their for the next 6 days with no public events.
Trump better be prepared. CNN will give Biden the questions, Tapper and Bash will cut off Trump’s mic, and it will basically be 3 against 1.
The questions will be about saving democracy, “reproductive rights”, “climate change”. Biden won’t be challenged and he will lie about “lowering inflation and costs”, while Trump will be challenge on all his answers.
I hope he will have a few sessions with that scenario with people playing Biden, Tapper and Bash.
The MSM is going to portray the debate as a Biden win no matter what.
LikeLike
Soccer? No comment.
LikeLike
Hawaii Agrees To ‘Historic’ Settlement In Youth Climate Case | Barron’s (barrons.com)
F..ing insane.
LikeLike
Trump will hold a rally in Philadelphia tomorrow. I will not be there. Both can be true.
The rally will be at Temple University in North Philadelphia. He would get a bigger crowd in South Philadelphia or Northeast Philadelphia but I know he wants to reach out to more minority voters.
LikeLike
”wasn’t that crowd estimated to be in the tens of thousands?”
The Bronx crowd was estimated at 20,000.
LikeLike
The Temple University site has an audience capacity of 10,000. That’s good size for a rally.
LikeLike
There is parking right next to the Liacouras Center. There is also a subway station and train station. However, attendance may be down because a lot of suburban voters are p*ssies and won’t come into the city.
LikeLike
Almost 81% are black/African American in that Philly neighborhood, with whites comprising 13%. Trump has long said he wanted to reach out into neighborhoods not traveled by the typical Republican candidate. He seems to be doing just that. It will be interesting to see if he can get the same positive buzz that he received in the Bronx.
Also federal judge threw out indictments against the Nevada backup Republican elector slate. The SCOTUS verdict on POTUS immunity will be one of the last ones to be released – coming next week. I wonder if waiting until the very end bodes well one way or the other.
LikeLike
New thread with new poll, to put a new smile on your face going into the weekend, unless you are Bunu or Paul.
LikeLike