Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
84 responses to “New thread to get away from Bunu.”
WHY is Biden getting ore than 33% of the vote in various polls?
(other than “because I hate Trump”)
33% or higher support for Biden based on…
–his youthful vigor?
–his foreign policy?
–his border policy?
–his DEI policies?
–his economic policies?
*******************************
I don’t get it.
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a great night for cows
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Walt – For the same reason that Dems ask how somebody convicted of 34 felonies could be leading any polls.*
*The convictions were politically motivated BS but that’s how Dems see it.
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Douglas Murray crushes Monk Debates again. This year anti-Zionism. He is one of the best conservative apologists today.
https://x.com/drelidavid/status/1803155859545227497?s=61&t=uLyKpWBwDwyCK292uUHCSA
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*Munk
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RIP, Willie Mays.
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I’m bummed.
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Good evening/morning. Bummed about Willie Mays, one of my Dads favorite players. Hopefully, Dad can get into a game/catch with him now.
Murray is great.
Let’s Go Oilers!
Cheers!
-NYCmike
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NYC – Stay for discussions.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13545333/child-rapist-inga-landi-angela-sauretti.html
Today’s feel good story. 23 year old woman captures and beats up illegal who raped a 13 year old girl.
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Trump and MAGA are close to defeating the Freedom Caucus chair Good in VA. This is troubling on many levels. Hopefully Good pulls it out.
Because the GOP so called “conservative movement” is so desperate to defeat Biden they dismiss or minimize every destructive action to dilute the true conservatives in the GOP on a national level.
Well … DeSantis is making great progress in Florida on a daily basis and solidifying this as a red state for a generation. It’s the antithesis of Cali.
In the long run… living in a solid red state is a no brainer IMHO. Some states are now making serious progress at a legislative level to elect more true conservatives and taking control of state houses which is encouraging. On a national level it won’t happen because of the corruption involved in DC.
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Trump, MTG and McCarthy defeating a 100% rated GOP conservative in a primary and the conservative media is silent. These people are not serious.
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The VIew says they will be cancelled if Trump wins.
This is an argument to vote for Trump even if he picks Vance as VP.
Nah, just kidding.
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Trump, MTG and McCarthy defeating a 100% rated GOP conservative in a primary and the conservative media is silent.”
Good is a Freedom Caucus moron who was one of the 8 idiots who thought the tail wagged the dog and insisted on replacing McCarthy.
You reap what you sow.
No free lunch.
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*The convictions were politically motivated BS but that’s how Dems see it.”
I don’t think even most Dems think Trump is guilty of “falsifying business records” and they understand it was a kangaroo court but the ends always justify the means.
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Trump and MAGA are close to defeating the Freedom Caucus chair Good in VA”
So now McCarthy is “MAGA”?
LOL
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Here we go, this is for DW.
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This lead in the betting market is wider than before the conviction.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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I like Biden at about 30%. If it gets down to that I will bet on him.
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wes would post this, so I am doing it for him.
“Several powerful New Jersey leaders affiliated with the Democratic Party have now been indicted in connection with an alleged corruption scandal that stretches back more than a decade.
On Monday, New Jersey Attorney General Matt Platkin, a Democrat appointed to office in 2022 by Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy, announced multiple charges, including first-degree racketeering, against six defendants: George Norcross III, Philip Norcross, William Tambussi, Dana Redd, Sidney Brown, and John O’Donnell.
According to Platkin’s press release, a group referred to as the Norcross Enterprise used unseemly means to acquire property, especially in Camden, and then coordinated with government officials to “craft” laws and regulations that benefited them. When officials and other residents refused to play along, the enterprise resorted to “coercion, extortion, and other criminal acts” to get their way, the press release said.”
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Let’s cut to the chase, shall we? The swing states aren’t going to go Biden’s way. He barely took Arizona, Georgia and Nevada with everything going for him last cycle. Iowa, NC, Ohio, Florida aren’t even going to be competitive. Biden has one shot and one shot only. Sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (plus NH) and win the one electoral vote in Omaha. That would give him a 270-268 skin of his teeth win. If he loses all the swing states what are the odds he does that? Pretty close to zero. I suppose Democrats can hope the NY hack judge throws Trump in jail. Big mistake if they try that. I’m certain that would clearly smack of desperation and only backfire. — Phil
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I’ll ask again. Where are the national polls from ABC, NBC, Quinnipiac, and CNN. Not a single one released since Trump’s “conviction”. I find that rather interesting. In the past, those outlets would be rushing out polls at breakneck speed after any bad news for Trump – let alone a felony conviction.
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The Dems still have other advantages.
They have VBM, ballot harvesting, drop boxes, and complete control of the vote count in the large metropolitan areas of the swing states.
And they have 95% of the media.
Trump has to win big, not just win.
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Biden at 28% odds at Betfair
Tempting….
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
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no polls
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The May deficits (one month) came in at $347 million. At that rate we are on our way to a 3 trillion dollar annual deficit. In fact the interest we’re paying on our debt now is the largest portion of our budget with the exception to social security. Is that sustainable? Can we continue to generously fund the pensions, salaries and aid to another country?
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Trump’s thin-skinned tendency to “remember” what he considers disloyalty, creates a lack of good judgment on his part sometimes. His endorsement of Good’s opponent, because Good endorsed Trump’s opponent during the presidential primary, is but one example. IMO, Trump should have stayed out of that race entirely, letting it play out without endorsing any candidate.
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“Can we continue to generously fund the pensions, salaries and aid to another country?”
No.
I hate Putin and am all in favor of supporting the people of Ukraine. But we don’t have the fiscal ability to indefinitely sustain the aid we’re sending out. There has to be a strategy for ending the war. Only Trump can get us there. The current $95 billion aid package will at least keep the war in a stalemate until then.
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Jeff G is a Putinista!!!
Chicon
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“Can we continue to generously fund the pensions, salaries and aid to another country?”
Yes. If it is in OUR interest, which the war in Ukraine is.
But of course, the vast majority of the aid is for military purposes, THAT is what bothers the Putin Lovers. The “pensions” is a red herring. Ask any of those Putin toadies if they approve military aid to Ukraine if you just cut out the “pensions” and they will all oppose it because they are hypocrites.
There is so much waste the government could cut and so many ratholes it pours money into before we have to worry about the drop in the bucket that is well spent aid to Ukraine.
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I hate Putin and am all in favor of supporting the people of Ukraine”
Zzzzzzz….
But you want to cut the aid off that keeps the Russians from winning.
You are a lying hypocrite.
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You can tell JeffP is a lying hypocrite because he readily admits the aid to Ukraine is what keeps the Russians from winning.
“The current $95 billion aid package will at least keep the war in a stalemate”
Also, another lie is that the $95 billion is for Ukraine, it includes aid to Taiwan and Israel as well.
But pathological liars like JeffP never know when one lie starts and the other ends.
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Jeff G is a Putinista!!!
Chicon”
The truth will set you free.
JeffP has been here shilling for Putin since the start of the war.
“Support the people of Ukraine” my ass.
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“There has to be a strategy for ending the war.”
I agree.
How about a “strategy” that gets the Russians out of Ukraine, obligates them to pay reparations for all the death and destruction they have wrought on innocent Ukrainians, and prosecutes Russian war criminals?
Would that be a good strategy?
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So we keep funding a stalemate indefinitely instead of trying to actually end the war.
…. small minds.
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Jason, your plan will never happen. Live in the real world.
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So we keep funding a stalemate indefinitely instead of trying to actually end the war.”
What is your plan beyond what it has always been
“Putin has nukes so we should surrender now”.
You have a new plan?
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Jason, your plan will never happen. Live in the real world.”
Ahhh.
It is a good strategy but will never happen.
Got it.
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…. small minds.”
I love it!
Surrendering to Putin is a sign of a “big mind”.
You can’t make this sh-t up.
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Here is the deal.
If Putin knew right now that Western aid would continue no matter what he would be much more likely to want to negotiate.
But he knows the Putin lovers will continue to try to cut off aid so he can prevail, so he has no incentive to negotiate in good faith.
Actually, I hope this is Trump’s strategy. Threaten Putin with even MORE aid unless he negotiates in good faith. There are some indications that might be indeed his “miracle solution”.
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With all due respect, any end to the war in Ukraine is going to come with territorial concessions. Crimea is off the table, they have been there for more than a decade. Donetsk will most likely remain part of Russia (a majority of the people there consider themselves Russian and not Ukrainian). That isn’t being negative, its just reality.
I believe that the West will continue to seize assets that they can and use that money for the rebuilding of Ukraine, and paying for reparations. Russia will complain and bluster about it, but that will happen, since they effectively are already seized…though it should be noted that its business as usual for Russian in certain parts of the world that we consider allied with us. As well, I believe that war crimes tribunals will be set up and those committing atrocities tried in absentia, though I don’t know that they will ever serve time.
NATO is where I have to say I truly don’t know. That may be the final piece of negotiation that gets the war finished, but I do not know where it will come down. For or against. I know Jason wants them to be part of NATO, but given the condition that any NATO country that is attacked is considered an act of aggression against the whole, I think there are member states reticent to have Ukraine come in. Again, that leaves me at, “I don’t know.”
I do know that if we don’t continue to supply military aid (ITS NOT CASH) that none of this will happen and Ukraine will become a satellite state of Russia once again, repressed, and with repercussions for fighting back.
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The Economist gives Trump a 19/20 chance to win Florida.
And some people deny DeSantis turned FL deep red.
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https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president/florida/
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I do know that if we don’t continue to supply military aid (ITS NOT CASH) that none of this will happen and Ukraine will become a satellite state of Russia once again, repressed, and with repercussions for fighting back.”
This is what the Putinistas want, and THAT is why they oppose aid.
The rest is BS and Kremlin talking points.
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Jason, if you think Trump will succeed by throwing even more aid to Ukraine in the short term, then that’s a strategy for ending the war. It’s better than Biden’s strategy of funding a perpetual stalemate. Trump will end this. But to Vic’s point, Putin is likely to get more than nothing out of any deal.
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I know Jason wants them to be part of NATO, but given the condition that any NATO country that is attacked is considered an act of aggression against the whole, I think there are member states reticent to have Ukraine come in. Again, that leaves me at, “I don’t know.”’
It’s not a question of “what I want”. I understand the difficulties of NATO membership by Ukraine, starting with which borders of Ukraine is NATO defending.
The problem is what guarantee besides NATO membership would assure that Putin would respect whatever solution to end the war is arrived at. What would keep him from invading again if not NATO?
Perhaps Ukraine could be in NATO with a special arrangement that didn’t commit all members to go to war for it but would commit them to military assistance of a specified nature as a deterrent.
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Jason. Your last paragraph demonstrated why I said “I don’t know.” That’s a solid solution that you offered, and if someone were bright enough to tender that, it might satisfy both sides instead of NATO being the dealbreaker on both sides
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But to Vic’s point, Putin is likely to get more than nothing out of any deal.”
I don’t disagree.
He starts with Crimea and what he had before the war plus what he has conquered since then. He knows his idea of Ukraine pulling out of areas the Russians have NOT conquered is bluster and BS.
So any solution is going to be something in between, I think Trump will propose ending sanctions, the Russians pull back somewhat and keep some conquered land so everyone can say they won.
I personally won’t support this but it is better than Putin annexing Ukraine and moving on to further conquests. In the “real world” as JeffP puts it, Russia should pull out of Ukraine including Crimea, pay massive reparations, and face war crime charges for those responsible for the atrocities.
Putin will “win”, as defined by him. Because he is a ruthless dictator with no regard for human life, he will not look at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties and hundreds of billions in economic costs.
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Vic, there’s zero chance Biden’s handlers broker such a deal. Any real negotiations to end this war are going to be on Trump’s watch. If Trump loses, we’ll see four more years of stalemate with hundreds of thousands more dead on both sides.
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Jason, you are mistakenly besmirching JeffP.
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Jeff G, the name doesn’t matter, he besmirches everyone…..
Chicon
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Hi, Chicon. It’s his way. I should know after at least 14 years.
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Jason, you are mistakenly besmirching JeffP.”
How exactly?
He has been shilling for Putin since the war started.
I call it as it is.
GFY.
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“Mistakenly besmirching”
LOL
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Of course, Chicon used to support Ukraine, until he didn’t.
Now he just repeats Janzam’s Russia State Media talking points.
Sad.
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Biden dropping, Newsome and Hillary rising in the prediction markets.
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still no polls
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Jason, just wanted to make sure you were besmirching the correct Jeff. It’s a proud tradition to get besmirched by the Alpha A-hole.
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besmirched. A+ for word of the day Jeff
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Technically, Jason is not a Founding A-hole so he cant’t be an Alpha A-hole.
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BL, you need to make an organizational chart to clarify the A-hole hierarchy.
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I don’t trust Trump on Ukraine. He will defer to the Jans and Tinas.
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Bitter – I respectfully disagree. he was harder on Russia than Obama and Biden for sure, and does not want to be associated with helping Russia in any way after what’s been said about him. I think he will continue to fund military aid in the form of a loan, and this will entice Putin to come to the table and agree as I noted above.
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There were 2 Founding A-holes. Me and MD. Nobody will fill the void in the A-holes but the remaining A-holes work hard.
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I have never shilled for Putin… it’s ridiculously dumb to even insinuate.
My perspective regarding Ukraine is the west (if not so corrupt along with Ukraine) could have weaponized Ukraine several years ago, to deter against Russia aggression and Putin played western leaders Merkel, Cameron and Obama. Watch BBC Putin and the West documentary.
Regarding Trump… the question all along is will he support Ukraine joining NATO? I am guessing no. J
The senseless dying of youth that don’t know each other, for the old men that do know each other is a tragedy regardless.
For the love of God our country has many more pressing issues to debate and need to be addressed.
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I realize this perspective is beyond Jason’s elementary thinking so please disregard his ignorance.
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Looking at Ukraine in a vacuum is exactly the wrong approach. I think Trump actually might understand that.
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If Ukraine is not admitted to NATO, Russia will keep coming after it.
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Sorry, Bitter, again I disagree. If they keep the Donetsk region in negotiations they will consider that the buffer zone they are looking for to justify the invasion, and will not re-invade. My guess is that in the final settlement there will be strong language surrounding a response to further incursions, including, but not limited to immediate entry into NATO for Ukraine. This alone would suffice to dissuade a further invasion.
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Vic – Putin does not want a buffer zone. He wants all of Ukraine. He has said this before.
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Bitter – There are things people say, and the reality of situations. There is bluster, and then there is reality. In a negotiated peace settlement the buffer will be enough with a commitment to not join NATO, and the West will only agree under the condition that if another invasion occurs, then Ukraine is immediately absorbed into NATO.
Cream Soda, or Philly cheesesteak bet on that.
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Vic – Putin did not send hundreds of thousands of soldiers to die for a buffer zone. Ukraine was never going to attack Russia. That was not good enough for him. We will just have to disagree on this.
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Bitter – We will have to disagree. I am discussing how I think this will end. I think I have a fairly decent grasp of the situation. Keeping territory already acquired satisfies his “base” at home, not taking over the rest of Ukraine is a compromise the rest of the world will most likely accept, and Ive discussed NATO above.
After two years, if Trump commits to continued military aid this will end. It’s at a stalemate and will remain that way, and he knows that. I stand by my assessment above. We can agree to disagree.
What is factual is the Mets are now only 0.5 games out of a playoff place. Let’s see how they blow this chance.
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It is depressing that the Republican Party is being taken over by isolationists and those who would appease a KGB thug.
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This is not new. One of the reasons I don’t identify anymore as a Republican.
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Very torn over the reelection effort by VA Rep. Good.
Since he is the leader of the Freedom Caucus, I want him to be defeated in the primary, because I consider the Freedom Caucus to be whack-a-doodles..
On the other hand, Trump wants him defeated in the primary.
I am torn because this puts me on the same side as Trump.
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It’s been the game of cat and mouse ever since Putin replaced Yeltsin.
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Defeating Good in VA is all about revenge for McCarthy and Susan Wiles. Interesting they didn’t go after Miss Mace and Matt Gaetz for dumping McCarthy.
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Walt – The real world sucks. I wish Trump had remained a registered Democrat. He didn’t. So I am stuck supporting him. Thankfully for the last time.
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Supporting Ukraine joining NATO should be the first foreign policy question in the debate for Geezer Bowl II.
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bitter. I don’t think we are any different in foreign policy. I believe it to be one of the tenets of the GOP and something we’ve always done better.
i am far far far away from being an isolationist as you know personally, and would like to think that after the Trump populism fades away we will again be the leaders.
with that said, the complete victory over Russia you want is not tenable. Without s negotiated settlement this will go on for s decade or more. Even if Putin died I do not believe his successor would give in. Nationalism is to Russians what entitlement programs are to Dems, forever and untouchable.
sometime a compromise is the correct solution, but you know what a compromise is…when both parties come away dissatisfied
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Vic is right. I guess we’re both Putinistas.
Chicon
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McCarthy did go after Mace in South Carolina, and lost big. Florida has yet to have its primary, but it is unlikely Gaetz will lose. They do have more investigations against him in the Ethics Committee now though.
The difference with Good in Virginia, is that Trump wanted him out, because Good endorsed DeSantis. The McCarthy angle is just secondary there.
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