Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:42.0 / 55.1-13.0
Pollsters right in 2024:46.2 / 51.0-4.8

2026 House Forecast

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Democrats +3216219

2026 Senate Forecast

TXMEOHMIGANHNCMN
Gap+4.5+2.0+1.4+1.4+1.4+3.6+6.2
Count5051525347464544

Biden up 7 in New Mexico

According to a new poll by Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling. Their sample was simply ‘voters’ with no indication as to registered or likely. PPP says that Hispanics in NM favor Biden over Trump 57/31. This survey found Biden’s job approval in NM at 44/50, which is much stronger for Biden than another Democrat polling firm (Civiqs) who recently found Biden at 38/56. Finally, I am curious as to why PPP only polled the Trump vs Biden matchup, when Stein is on the ballot already, and Kennedy seems on track to get there. This new poll is nearly identical to their poll taken last August, with Biden losing 1 point.

Also new is a poll of North Carolina from Spry Strategies

–DW

NEW MEXICOPublic Policy Polling
Trump41
Biden 48 (-1)
Undecided11
June 13-14; 555 V
NORTH CAROLINASpry Strategies
Trump48
Biden44
Three Candidates:
Trump45
Biden37
Kennedy8
Governor:
Robinson43
Stein39
June 7-11; 600 LV

39 responses to “Biden up 7 in New Mexico”

  1. DW,

    You pose good questions.

    You also know the answers to the questions you pose.

    Like

  2. DRUDGE

    USDA Suspends Avocado Inspections in Mexico, Citing Security Concerns…

    *******************

    THANK GOD THAT THE BIDEN ADMIN. IS FINALLY CRACKING DOWN ON THE POUROUS SOUTHERN BORDER.

    But I hear George Soros has immediately started and funded a group to oppose this Biden crackdown.

    “FREE THE AVOCADOS!”

    Like

  3. Thanks Walt. Just to be clear, I am not saying the topline results are wrong. Its possible that a stronger sample size, taken of likely NM voters, with Stein and Kennedy included might produce the same 7 point gap. But it might not too, and it would be nice to know. Would be great to see some other pollster survey this state.

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  4. DW,

    Did you catch this in the PPP poll in NM?

    “The poll shows that 44 percent of voters approve of Biden’s job performance as president, while 50 percent said they disapprove.”

    ***************************

    44% job approval???

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  5. Oops. sorry DW,, you already highlighted that.

    My bd. nevermind.

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  6. Maybe another polling company will poll NM soon. Perhaps

    Telephone Poll-ing

    Stripper Poll-ing

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  7. yeah, its just interesting, because Civiqs (D) consistently has Biden’s job approval in NM much worse.

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  8. oh and PPP also didn’t bother to ask about the US Senate race in NM.

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  9. PPP has an agenda and I don’t really trust any poll by them. Except maybe ones released just before the election, which are the ones used by the polling raters for accuracy.

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  10. The time to ditch Biden is coming in July I think. Reports that Obama, Clinton’s, Pelosi and Schumer are going to have a talk with Joe. It wouldn’t surprise me. Maybe in correlation to Trump being imprisoned?

    Regardless Joe is not going to make it much longer.

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  11. JeffP, jason will reply to you that this is silliness, that the Dems have no one on the bench who could do a better job against Trump than Biden.

    While I would agree with jason that it would be a huge risk to make a late change, if they have polling data that shows them a switch would improve their situation, they would take it.

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  12. Short of a 25th Amendment invocation, Joe and Jill must agree to withdraw. So far, they’ve not shown the inclination to do so.

    Also, they have a problem with the black vote. Tossing Harris would exacerbate the problem; keeping her is doom. Perhaps a black candidate? But, which one?

    Chicon

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  13. “Joe and Jill must agree to withdraw”

    Scalia didn’t agree to retire, and they found him under a pillow dead.

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  14. All I am saying is that if the Dems think they can improve their situation, they will stop at nothing to do so.

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  15. DW – glad you got your NM poll. I think that NM is more of a stretch than VA, believe it or not. The demographics there lend itself to the populace believing the media’s take on things (Trump and R’s are racist), plus, with such a small overall population, the big exodus from CA to places like Sante Fe, etc have giving it a very very blue CA tinge.

    With regards to replacing Biden, it’s going to be extremely hard to do barring a very public health issue. If the D party loses black voters then you can say hello to a 56 seat Senate and Trump presidency. Forget about just being black, Harris is also a woman, so their only choice would be a woman of color to replace Harris. Narrows the search even more. Newsome, the golden boy…no way. Whitmer? Again, piss off the black voting population. Buttagig (sic) non starter in this election. Someone from the House??? Who? Senate?? same

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  16. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    They don’t have that polling data.

    Besides, they can’t get around Kamala.

    Do you think Kamala would agree to bow out for Newsome or Whitmer, and admit she is as popular as a rattlesnake at a picnic, and thus should stand down for someone with their kind of baggage?

    If you really think Biden won’t be the nominee you can get rich betting against him.

    The Dems BEST candidate is Biden. He is close to tied with Trump despite being a near vegetable. That is pretty damm good.

    https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination

    Like

  17. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    You are looking for a reason to not oppose Biden.”

    Bitter, can I have some points?

    Some A-hole on a previous thread actually said I am trying not to oppose Biden, should be worth something.

    Thanks.

    Like

  18. IF their polling confirmed Virginia’s Mark Warner to replace Biden, and leaving Kamala Harris on the ticket was better, they would do it. That sures up Virginia for them, and almost certainly MN, MI and WI.

    Like

  19. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    All I am saying is that if the Dems think they can improve their situation, they will stop at nothing to do so.”

    That is true as a general rule.

    As a practical matter, they don’t have a Plan B for Biden.

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  20. I agree jason that they don’t have a plan B. If they did, they would have already done it. But I think they might just still be looking for one.

    Like

  21. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Mark Warner? Who? LOL.

    I bet 90% of DEMS in MN, MI and WI never heard of him.

    And he is not even that popular in VA, he won in 2014 by like 20k votes.

    Warner is an unknown lightweight that would be crushed by Trump, you read it first here.

    The odds of Kamala bowing out for Mark Warner are slimmer than Bunu resigning from the Nazi Party, about 0.001%

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  22. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Hey, Kamala, why don’t you just let an obscure white guy nobody outside VA has ever heard of run for President, you just be a good little soldier and stay on as VP.

    Liked by 1 person

  23. yes, a southern white male would be the obvious replacement for the woman of color from California. Got it. oh, and keep her in the subjugated second spot as well.

    Like

  24. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    I agree jason that they don’t have a plan B. If they did, they would have already done it. But I think they might just still be looking for one.”

    Yeah, but it won’t be to “voluntarily” replace Biden. He would have to die or become incapacitated, in which case Plan B-Z is Kamala.

    There is no free lunch for the Dems.

    In my view, their best bet would be Klobuchar, because she already ran for President and is better known than a Mark Warner. But Kamala is not bowing out for Klobuchar.

    Like

  25. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Someone ask him why he needs a doctorate if he is going to get reparations, free everything, and property?

    “Where is our modern-day 40 acres and mule?” Michelle Rashad, a Chicago Lawn resident, asked rhetorically. Rashad is also the executive director of Imagine Englewood if.., a nonprofit organization that’s dedicated to creating safe and empowering spaces for young people in Englewood. 

    For Rashad, reparations for Black residents would include free education at any level, free healthcare, and programming to support Black home and land ownership. 

    “So if I want to get my master’s, I’m gonna get my doctorate, all of that should be paid for like the next 100 years,” she said. “Black folks should have free health insurance, but if not all of it, at least making sure that we have we were able to access free mental health services. I also feel like Black folks should have easier access to land and property. There should be a shortcut for us considering we were once property. We should be able to own property.”

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  26. Jason will dismiss it because I suggested it but Gov. Shapiro of PA is lurking. He was elected because he ran against a moron who decided that the most important issue was to have no exceptions for any abortion. Shapiro was able to run as a Fake Moderate. He’s Jewish so…..Dems will force their angry Muslim voters to STFU or take their chances with President Trump.

    Like

  27. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Nah, I think Shapiro would be a strong candidate but I dismiss him not because you suggested it but because anyone who says the quote below has no shot at the Dem nomination.

    “Tonight’s speech is about a topic I frankly did not think that I would have to talk about because it is so eminently obvious Hamas is evil and those who support them hate Jews,” he said. “It’s particularly not obvious on America’s college campuses where […] moral relativism has settled in.

    “The goal of Hamas was and is clear: genocide against the Jews,” Shapiro said, “Not just genocide against Jews in Israel, genocide against Jews everywhere.”

    Shapiro admonished Hamas for strategically placing its military headquarters beneath a hospital, where an attack would pose risk to civilians; this puts an international law of war that forbids targeting civilians and attacking hospitals to the test, he said.

    “There’s a reason that the Pentagon is not located beneath a hospital. There’s a reason Israeli military bases are not located beneath hospitals,” he said. “The entire purpose of the rules of war is to make it easier for military to target one another while not harming civilians.”

    Anyone in support of Hamas is in support of genocide, Shapiro said.

    “Those who support Hamas support Jew murder, full stop,” he said. “They do not support a two-state solution, they do not support the state of Palestine, they support Hamas. They support genocidal terrorists.”

    “You can’t destroy a Jewish state without killing a s—load of Jews,” he said.

    Like

  28. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    I agree Shapiro is a flaming liberal and a “fake” moderate.

    But his views on Israel and Hamas would never allow him to be the nominee, it’s not just “angry Muslims”, even the mainstream of the Dem party no longer shares those views, unfortunately.

    Like

  29. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Can anyone come up with a quote where Trump “clearly said he would disregard the law”? Or is the “non-partisan democracy watchdog” lying?

    A sprawling network of Democratic officials, progressive activists, watchdog groups, and ex-Republicans has been taking extraordinary steps to prepare for a potential second Trump presidency, drawn together by the fear that Trump’s return to power would pose a grave threat not just to their agenda but to American democracy itself.

    “Trump has made clear that he’ll disregard the law and test the limits of our system,” said Joanna Lydgate, the CEO of States United Democracy Center, a nonpartisan democracy watchdog organization that works with state officials in both parties. “What we’re staring down is extremely dark.””

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  30. I guess its easy to laugh at Mark Warner, but Michael Dukakis and John Kerry were very similar…okay, I get the irony here, they both lost. But neither Dukakis or Kerry ran as replacements to a memory care patient.

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  31. The videos of the obumbler aiding demented are fake. They are Russian disinformation.

    -cn and n.

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  32. Lol Ap “fact checked” that he did not freeze up. What a crock.

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  33. Tina, all of the Biden demented moments have been faked by Biden himself to lure Trump and Republicans in, so that during the debate, Biden will drop the mask and be young, fresh, articulate, and full of Solomonic wisdom.

    Either that, or they will send out a stunt double to do the debate.

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  34. Tina – How is Pittsburgh?

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  35. Cao thanks all his supporters including Cash Cow

    Liked by 1 person

  36. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Bunu really loves the Goebbels theory.

    Like