According to Marist:
 | PENNSYLVANIA – Marist |
| Trump | 47 |
| Biden | 45 |
| Kennedy | 3 |
| West | 1 |
| Stein | 1 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| McCormick | 46 |
| Casey | 52 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
32 responses to “Trump up 2 in PA”
First!
LikeLike
Will a strategy to grow HHR bring back old time posters and those interested in polls OR will it bring more Gateway Pundit conspiracy loons, pro-Putin supporters, and anti-Semitic America-hating bastards like Bunu? HHR stands at a crossroads.
LikeLike
For what its worth, the final Marist poll of PA in 2020 was Trump 46, Biden 51.
LikeLike
Of the battleground states that Trump is trying to flip, this Marist poll of PA is only the third time Trump has hit 47% with Kennedy and others included. The other two were Bloomberg polls of GA and WI.
The Kennedy slippage is real. I see it every time I update the numbers, in the polling aggregator. I have to lower Kennedy’s number just a bit.
But this Marist poll of PA is pretty good for Trump, all things considered.
LikeLike
That’s right, we don’t want anyone who disagrees with us!
Chicon
LikeLiked by 1 person
Zzzzzzzzz You want more Bunus?
LikeLike
People are free to disagree. That are not free from the possibility of being called conspiracy looms or pro-Putin. I don’t know why you can’t understand that.
LikeLike
Bitter sez…”My concern is that a wider audience may not understand this freak show”.
As he’s said, HHR isn’t for everyone. It might not even be for anyone.
Why has the number of posters steadily declined over the years? There’s now about 4-6 consistent posters, with another handful posting sporadically. That’s not just a question for Bitter, but for everyone here.
Chicon
LikeLiked by 1 person
My guess is some posters assume that because we generally support the same candidates that we agree on everything. We don’t and some can’t stand being challenged.
I expect Chi to blame me for the decline. Fine.
LikeLike
I am feeling 2008 vibes on HHR. Here is reality I think.
My concern regarding GOP enthusiasm vs WOKE COMMIE DEMS
Wasserman: “Washington Co. (Marietta) now fully reporting. Trump 70%-29% in 2020, Rulli (R) just 53%-47% tonight. #OH06”
@stevedeaceshow
“Another special election last night, this one in increasingly red Ohio. And the two-year trend of Democrats over performing the polling/partisan breakdown on gameday continues. Albeit this time it was slightly below their average of almost 9, Democrats still over-performed by over 6. So that’s some progress, I suppose. But if you are not factoring actual off year/special election results into your forecast for this fall, and only looking at polling — which is currently all over the place and also clearly hasn’t caught up to the Democrat “turnout advantage” yet — then you are either intentionally cherry picking or just missing a key piece of data. Actual results always matter more than projected ones.“
LikeLike
RFK Jr. taking votes from Biden is Trumps best hope.
LikeLike
For those interested in following the question of Ballot access, here is a current summary of the states where the POTUS line on the ballot is essentially set to go.
First a reminder of the overall candidates running, other than Trump and Biden:
Minor Parties:
Oliver/ter Maat (Libertarian)
Green (Stein)
Terry/Broden (Constitution)
Cruz/Garcia (PSL/Communist)
There are 8 other parties out there that will be lucky to appear on the ballot of just 1 or 2 states, like the Prohibition party (yes, someone is still fighting that battle).
Independents:
West/Abdullah (I)
Kennedy/Shanahan (I)
And so 2 major parties, 2 independents, and 4 minor party candidates. Eight total. Here are the states where the ballot is set:
SC & UT: All eight candidates
NY: Trump, Biden, and Kennedy (Stein in litigation)
NC: Trump, Biden, Kennedy, West, Stein, Oliver & Terry
TX: Trump, Biden, Kennedy, Stein, and Oliver
North Carolina is the one that interests me here. With Trump winning the state in 2020 with the wind against him, and Biden portrayed as a kindly grandfather who gives out lollipops, there seems to be no path for Biden in this state in 2024. Especially so with Kennedy, West, Stein, and Oliver on the ballot to bleed off potential Biden votes. Terry, the Constitution Party candidate in theory could siphon off some GOP votes, but this would be very few and easily offset by FOUR leftists running besides Biden.
LikeLike
Yeah, North Carolina increasingly looks like it is off the table for Biden — Phil
LikeLike
Florida, nc and Georgia are off the table imo.
LikeLike
The “core four” of 2016 won’t be up for grabs. Florida, Iowa, NC, and Ohio. If Biden wants to waste money in those states he can be my guest. Florida is a really expensive market, and I can’t see the Biden campaign throwing away millions for that longest of long shots. His shot at getting to 270 would be sweeping Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin plus the Omaha district in Nebraska. That would get him to 270 on the number. With him losing Georgia, Arizona and Nebraska this cycle, he has no margin of error whatsoever. — Phil
LikeLike
Some brutal numbers for Biden just dropped from Economist/YouGov:
NATIONAL POLL: YouGov/Economist
🟥 Trump: 42% [=]
🟦 Biden: 40% [-2]
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Other: 3%
Independents: Trump 37-26%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP 44% [=]
🟦 DEM 44% [-1]
[+/- change vs June 4]
—
Extremely/very enthusiastic about voting for President in November
66% of Republicans
46% of Democrats
—
Definitely will vote for President
87% of Republicans
80% of Democrats
—
President Biden Job Approval
Overall: 40-58 (-18)
Independents: 24-64 (-40)
—The Economy: Getting better or worse?
Getting better: 19%
Getting worse: 51%
—
538: #4 (2.9/3.0) | 6/9-11 | 1,398 RV
Oof…Net Job Approval -40 among Independents??
LikeLike
Basketball legend Jerry West (from Cabin Creek, WV) has passed.
He was 86.
LikeLike
RIP to The Logo.
Chicon
LikeLike
You know you are great when the NBA logo is your outline.
LikeLike
Retribution Trump is back to fight the deep state
https://twitter.com/littlememzz/status/1721558775189172541?s=20
LikeLike
Just a random observation here…there are several Dem polling firms (Civiqs, Democracy Corps, Data for Progress, Change Research, PPP-D) that had been putting out national polling numbers. The last three of these Polls had a Trump lead, but all of them have gone silent since 4/22. Hmmmm.
LikeLike
Another new national poll:
NATIONAL POLL:
@cygnal
🟥 Trump: 47% [+1]
🟦 Biden: 45% [=]
Always vote: Trump 48-44%
—
🟥 Trump: 41% [=]
🟦 Biden: 38% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr: 8% [-1]
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 2%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 45% [+1]
🟥 GOP: 45% [-1]
[+/- change vs May] 67 (2.1/3.0) | 1,500 LV | 6/4-6 | ±2.5%
LikeLike
It’s one thing to be the GOAT in a sport. Only West could rise to the level of Logo.
LikeLike
Deep State? Zzzzzzzz
LikeLike
In OH-6 there were 334.000 votes cast in 2020. Last night 74,000.
this was solely a case that the republicans thought it was an easy win and Dems decided to come out. It ended up 55-45…
anyone here think this year will be a dem landslide?
LikeLike
Vic, there are several ways to look at it. Its a special election. Rdelbov over at RRH pointed out that if the GOP spent HUGE money in OH-6 to run up the score last night, then the RRH wizards there would have complained about the wasted money that could have been spent elsewhere. But they instead took the minimalist approach, won by a comfortable ten points, and the RRH wizards are upset it wasn’t a blow-out landslide.
LikeLike
10 point margin and it’s not a blow out?
LikeLike
NT
LikeLike
Long ago Rdelbov used to be a regular poster @ HHR. I liked his thinking but he was ridiculed by a few and eventually left for RRH. There is a line drawn between vigorous, opposing POVs but healthy debate, and posts that are meant to be demeaning or simply untrue. Chicon, IOW, made some relevant points whether or not you like them.
LikeLike
The mid terms of 2022 and every special election since the GOP is under performing in turnout and the Dems are over performing polls. That does not bode well.
LikeLike
Not when compared to Trumps numbers in 2020. It’s the trend for every special election.
LikeLike
DW “Vic, there are several ways to look at it. It’s a special election. Rdelbov over at RRH pointed out that if the GOP spent HUGE money in OH-6 to run up the score last night, then the RRH wizards there would have complained about the wasted money that could have been spent elsewhere. But they instead took the minimalist approach, won by a comfortable ten points, and the RRH wizards are upset it wasn’t a blow-out landslide.”
This is Pollyanna perspective.
LikeLike