Yes according to a NRSC internal poll:
 | NEW MEXICO – Red Oak Strategic |
| Domenici | 38 |
| Heinrich | 41 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Yes according to a NRSC internal poll:
| NEW MEXICO – Red Oak Strategic |
| Domenici | 38 |
| Heinrich | 41 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
22 responses to “NM US Senate race in play?”
first
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At least make the Dems spend money there.
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Prominent FiveThirtyEight pollster Nate Silver posed a foreboding question for Democrats on Monday.
The question came on the heels of a devastating revelation for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign.
The president just reached a new all-time low in approval. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls, Biden’s approval rating stands at a mere 37.6 percent.”
Zzzzz….
Nate Silver is not a pollster.
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Boden finds some new lies for the day
https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1800601727789322578
– Claims he was a professor at UPenn, which he never was
– Claims he taught a constitutional law class on the second amendment, which he never did
– Says that you couldn’t own a cannon when 2A was implemented, which you could
– And ends by failing miserably to say the phrase “the tree of liberty is watered with the blood of patriots”
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a Facebook group called “Hedgesville and Historic Environs”.
SHOULD be “Historic Hedgesville and Environs”
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That was yesterday jason, today, Nate Silver is out there saying Biden will sweep the rust belt and win the election. You cannot make this stuff up.
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Nate Silver:
Yesterday: Biden needs to drop out, Job Approval is horrific.
Today:
NEW:@FiveThirtyEightForecast
Win probability
🟦 Biden: 53%
🟥 Trump: 47%
—
EC Forecast
🟦 Biden: 276
🟥 Trump: 262
—
Win probability + projected margin
Michigan
🟦 Biden: 59%
🟥 Trump: 41%
MI projected margin: D+2
—
Pennsylvania
🟦 Biden: 57%
🟥 Trump: 43%
PA projected margin: D+1.5
—
Wisconsin
🟦 Biden: 57%
🟥 Trump: 43%
WI projected margin: D+1.5
—
NE-2
🟦 Biden: 69%
🟥 Trump: 31%
NE-2 projected margin: D+4.2
Even though the polls Nate puts on his own web page have Trump in the lead in these states.
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As long as Nate can just pull numbers out of his ear, here are my projected guesses for the battlegrounds:
NC: Trump 51, Biden 42, others 7
AZ: Trump 49, Biden 42, others 9
NV: Trump 48, Biden 44, others 8
GA: Trump 49, Biden 43, others 8
PA: Trump 48, Biden 45, others 7
ME: Trump 48, Biden 47, others 5
MI: Trump 47, Biden 45, others 8
WI: Trump 48, Biden 46, others 6
NE_02: Trump 50, Biden 43, others 7
MN: Trump 47, Biden 48, others 5
VA: Trump 48, Biden 46, others 6
NH: Trump 47, Biden 46, others 7
NM: Trump 46, Biden 47, others 7
CO: Trump 45, Biden 48, others 7
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DW – read between the lines, and realize that with his “projection” he is saying that GA, NC, AZ are off the table for Biden. He basically only holds on to NV and NE-2 and that is the difference in the election.
Trump wins those two, he wins the election, which is what I have said for months. This is a big deal. For that dweeb little snit to say that GA and AZ are going Trump is huge, even when he packages it as, oh, Biden is going to win.
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Well, and Silver is just plain stupid to ignore the fact that Biden’s up only 10 in New York, and less than that in New Jersey. And in Virginia, both Fox News and Roanoke College say its a tie ballgame.
The 37.4 job approval doesn’t just take a toll on some states but not others. You cannot just lock in on four states and say here is the election. Biden’s job approval is currently worse than Jimmy Carter’s was on election day 1980 when Reagan slaughtered him. I know, Trump is no Reagan, but Carter was physically still in his prime and could speak without a teleprompter, while Biden cannot speak WITH one.
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They are banking on the debate. Dems truly believe it will be a Biden wipeout of Trump. They believe he’s actually sharp, will be able to kill Trump on the economy, J6, the border (belive it or not) and the key is they are going to start by asking him if he believes the election was stolen…to try to make him look bad.
I can promise you Trapper and CNN have a plan to make Trump look bad and Biden good.
That’s a lot to ask for.
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And Virginia is not some sort of recent movement. Going back to last year, there have been a total of 14 polls. 8 of them have had the race in the range of tied to Biden only +3. Its been close all along for anyone willing to pay attention.
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but again, that is just it DW. They are now left with nothing but to create a narrative that is different from reality. The economy is great. Biden is handling the Border better than Trump. Democracy will end (they use the Dictator comment a lot). and they have to create this narrative that Biden will win, or else people will flee the sinking ship.
You can bet he will be hopped up at the debate. I just pray that Trump, for once, can keep his tongue and not play into their trap.
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He won’t. Trump is incapable of controlling himself. The only good thing is that his act won’t matter. Opinions pro and con are set.
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Like when he said last week the revenge he was going to seek against his political opponents was winning the election?
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With that said, I do not think he can go a debate without running off the rails. Sadly, because all he has to do to shock america is to do exactly that. Stick to the issues. Say the last election is in the past, nothing more to say about it, what we need to talk about is today…and the election upcoming. Also, if he were to say my revenge is winning and leading the country back to prosperity.
He won’t, but I so want him to. If he did that, he would win in a landslide.
BTW with ten days to prepare, they will put Biden on a schedule where he sleeps most of the day and wakes up at around 3pm so he’s fresh at night.
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i remember when there used to be comments here late at night. I miss some of the old posters
i really think maybe each of us should pitch in $50 each and buy a few ads to attract new viewers. Maybe place then on RCP polling page or politico. Something like that
maybe get an article written about this page that’s been around for more than 20 ywars
thoughts everyone
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CBS News’ Major Garrett Says Hunter Biden’s Conviction Was Painful for the Nation”
Has serial panderer Nikki Haley asked us to feel HER pain yet?
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I am good for $50. Also pay one of those sites that brings your site up when people google “polls” for example.
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Put me in for $1.00. Is it tax deductible?
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I will do what people want. My concern is that a wider audience may not understand this freak show. My identity is the worst kept secret on the internet. I stand by every post I have made but I don’t want to be associated with the Gateway Pundit and ZeroHedge conspiracy theories. Also, do we really want a broader audience for Bunu? There should be a disclaimer that each poster is solely responsible for their own comments.
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NT
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