Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:42.0 / 55.1-13.0
Pollsters right in 2024:46.2 / 51.0-4.8

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +3216219

2026 Senate Forecast

TXMEOHMIGANHNCMN
Gap+4.5+2.0+1.4+1.4+1.4+3.6+6.2
Count5051525347464544

Virginia tied and Trump with leads in FL, AZ, and NV

According to Fox News:

VIRGINIA Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research
Trump48
Biden48
Five Candidates:
Trump41
Biden42
Kennedy9
Stein2
West2
June 1-3; 1,107 RV
FLORIDA
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research
Trump50
Biden46
Five Candidates:
Trump47
Biden40
Kennedy7
Stein1
West2
June 1-3; 1,075 RV
ARIZONA Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research
Trump51
Biden46
Five Candidates:
Trump46
Biden41
Kennedy8
Stein1
West1
June 1-3; 1,095 RV
NEVADA Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research
Trump50
Biden45
Five Candidates:
Trump45
Biden40
Kennedy7
Stein2
West2
June 1-3; 1,069 RV

54 responses to “Virginia tied and Trump with leads in FL, AZ, and NV”

  1. Virginia is officially a battleground state. Trump is expanding the map.

    Like

  2. Hard to believe Trump is only ahead in Florida by the same margin as NV and AZ.

    We need to start skewing some polls.

    • Poul Harris

    Like

  3. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Question: “Does Netanyahu listen to you”

    BIDEN: “I think he’s listening to me. They didn’t— they were gonna go into Russia”

    Janzam hardest hit, even Israel is going to attack Russia.

    Like

  4. Yes, Virginia definitely in play. For both Roanoke College and Fox News to say its a tie is quite remarkable. I would love to get a poll from Christopher Newport University.

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  5. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    “Dana Bash claims that Joe Biden shunning his grandkid is “disturbing on so many levels” not because that’s what the President is doing, but because “Republicans are using it.” She says it goes against “the brand and the kind of person that we all know and believe Joe Biden to be”

    Yes, the man we all know and believe Joe Biden to be….

    Like

  6. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    So the problem with Biden shunning his grandchild is that “Republicans are using it”?

    Actually, I haven’t seen ONE reference to Biden’s grandchild in any conservative media.

    Like

  7. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    I am skeptical about VA, but if Biden is forced to spend money there defending it that is still a plus.

    Like

  8. Sick headline: SPLC Expands “Hate Watch” to Doctors Who Oppose Child Sex Changes

    There is no such thing as a child sex change. Only horrific, irreversible sterilization of children who will grow up to never function normally. The evil SPLC is the group that hates and abuses children.

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  9. No little boy has any idea what it feels like to ejaculate, and yet an evil surgeon violates the Hippocratic Oath in the most evil sort of way, to take a knife and lop off the boy’s testicles and penis so he will never experience that feeling, and never reproduce. And because the knife cuts so many nerves, the poor child will lack feeling in this part of the body where God designed it to have so much feeling. Then the poor child faces a lifetime of doctor checkups, risks of infection, and drug therapy. This is sick and disgusting, and the sort of thing that Nazis were hung for doing to Jewish children during WWII.

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  10. Will Democrats be dumb enough to instruct the hack judge to jail Trump before the election? If so, it’s President Trump once again. They aren’t dumb enough I don’t think – but they might be eaten up with Trump hatred to do it anyway.

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  11. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    I don’t see the judge trying to jail Trump 4 days before the convention.

    But he might sentence him to jail pending appeal.

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  12. Oh I think they will definitely try to jail Trump. They have gone this far, and now its their only path. The SCOTUS might want to intervene, that is if they want to avoid Civil War II

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  13. DW – I am curious about your statement about another Civil War. Are you personally willing to kill people if Trump is sent to jail?

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  14. For the record SILO is a better bunker show than fallout (though I haven’t watched all of fallout just a couple episodes. seemed cheesy but maybe if I watch it more it would become better)

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  15. Bitter, we have been in a “cold” Civil War for many years now. Sometimes there are flare ups when its a “hot” Civil War, like when that leftist shot up the Republicans at the baseball practice, nearly killing Steve Scalise. But we are a nation with completely opposite and incompatible ideologies. There is no fix to this. I would prefer to just split the country up and let the left go off their leftist cliff which would result in their utter failure and collapse. But I don’t believe the left will allow a peaceful separation. They will insist all states comply with their radical and bizarre agenda.

    For many, the left’s jailing of Trump would be yet another significant escalation in this ongoing Cold Civil War. I am not at the point of literally going to battle, though some might be. I would like to fight and win this war without firing shots. But in the end, I will defend myself. I still am of the belief that I will die in prison simply because I am a Christian. That idea was laughed at ten years ago, but looking at what is going on now, its not as funny or impossible.

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  16. I still, respectfully, laugh at that idea. While you might want to be a martyr, I don’t think you will get your wish in the US. You probably have to go to another country to fulfill that wish.

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  17. I didn’t say it was a wish Bitter, I don’t seek it, but it will seek me. They will say change your beliefs or else. Its already happening. Vermont just said that if you are a Christian, you cannot be a foster parent. Change your beliefs or else. Most people who are not devout people of faith look at it like, okay, you root for the Mets, just change to rooting for the Phillies and so what’s the big deal–its just a ball game. But its not that way when you are committed to the teachings of your church. You don’t just give it up to satisfy a political power. Early Christians were compelled to offer a pinch of incense in worship of Caesar. They refused, knowing they would be eaten by lions in the arena.

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  18. DW – How are you planning on splitting up? Who has to move and where? Will there be the job somebody wants to do in a place they want to live 1500 miles away? What if a state with a Dem Governor now gets a Republican Governor in the next election? Do all the Dems have to move and the state join the new country or would it be red area surrounded by blue like West Berlin during the Cold War.

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  19. Well Muslims don’t allow woke.

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  20. I didn’t post it above, but Arizona was previously polled by Fox News. So here are the changes from their prior poll, pre-kangaroo court verdict:

    Arizona:

    Trump 51 (+2)

    Biden 46 (+1)

    Five Candidates:

    Trump 46 (+3)

    Biden 41 (+2)

    Kennedy 8 (-2)

    Working with these polls all the time, I keep noticing slippage in Kennedy’s numbers.

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  21. Bitter, that’s the problem with Civil War II. Not easily divided up based on a geographical location. But its also true that migration has been and is happening. The result has been blue states getting bluer and red states getting redder. I suspect that this will continue.

    I have seen some interesting maps where the USA is broken up into parts. The one that I thought looked the best had six countries arising from the ashes:

    1) a left coast communist state that included coastal CA, OR, WA, and all of HI.

    2) a conservative (free) country that included the rocky mountain states, great plains states, TX, MO, AR, and LA, all the way to the Mississippi river in the south, but crossing over and including rural IL, IN, and OH.

    3) a leftist state in the upper mid-west that is carved out of eastern MN (twin cities), across Wisconsin, including Madison, Milwaukee, and then northern IL to include Chicago, northwest Indiana, and then it would go into lower Michigan all the way across to Detroit. (Upper Michigan still connects to country 2 above).

    4) New England and mid-atlantic states. ME, NH, VT, NY, MA, RI, CT, NJ, PA, MD, DE, and a few counties in northern VA.

    5) A very conservative country in the southeast: Most of VA, WV, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, NC, SC, and FL

    6) Alaska is left to itself.

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  22. So you don’t have to move while 100 million or more do. Got it.

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  23. For those who follow the betting markets (I don’t):

    @Polymarket

    • Presidential Winner

    April 18
    🟦 Biden: 45% (+2)
    🟥 Trump: 43%

    May 7
    🟥 Trump: 47% (+2)
    🟦 Biden: 45%
    .
    May 30
    🟥 Trump: 54% (+15)
    🟦 Biden: 39%
    .
    JUNE 7
    🟥 Trump: 56% (+22)
    🟦 Biden: 34%

    Probably not what Fat Albert envisioned.

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  24. Schools in the UK are not any better than the schools here. Redfield and Wilton found this: Less Than One in Six British 18-24-Year-olds Know What ‘D-Day’ Was

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  25. Bitter, I know you disagree, but I believe that what DW is saying is not so far fetched. I started a book about 20 years ago about the US splitting in four nations…never finished it, as life happened. It seemed far fetched then, it doesn’t now.

    History shows us that holding together nations is difficult, holding together one with 50 small “states” in it, even harder. California has morphed into its own being, and that, combined with the large “Aztlan” Movement there portends an inevitable New California. The irony is that it won’t last 50 years with all the competing factions in it.

    Texas, well…Ive found out Texans are Texans first, I can see TX, OK, KS, NE, LA and up north forming a country. The Southeast, and then New England and the rust belt staying the USA. All without a shot firing. The politics are strong…

    Now with that said, cooler heads could prevail and the center finally stand up and say, no mas. But with all the wokeness being shoved down peoples throat, I think there is going to be a massive backlash sooner rather than later.

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  26. BTW, I want to point out something about the whole Aztlan and “take the southwest and CA back” movements, who believe the land was stolen from Mexico and belongs to Mexico. Prior to the Spanish coming “Mexico” never extended further north than say…Guadalajara. The peoples of the southwest and California (BTW there were hardly any native americans in the state) were never part of Mexico. In the mid-1700’s the Spanish started colonizing there were less than 100,000 living in California, even less in Texas.

    By 1790 there were only 100 people living in California that spoke Spanish, the rest were native populations. In 1845, there were only 92,000 people living in California, then the US “acquired/won” California in the war with Mexico (BTW James Knox Polk was a very underrated President).

    The fact is that the southwest was NEVER part of Mexico before the Spaniards came, was only part of “Mexico” for about 30+ years before the US won it during the war with Mexico, so this false claim that this was “Mexican land, stolen by the USA” is patently false.

    In fact, most hispanics (those of Mexican decent, or migrants) were less than 10% of California’s population as late as 1960!!! In 1910, Latinos made up a grand total of 2.1% of California’s population, driving another nail into the heart of the claim that “reconquistadores” movement makes that this was Mexico’s land.

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  27. Fun fact – in 1840 Kentucky was the fifth most populous state, out of 24…

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  28. Brutal new numbers for Biden just dropped from Clarity Campaign Labs.

    Job approval: 34/55 (-21)

    Biden’s personal favorability is at -17, while Trump’s is only -6

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  29. Vic – You and DW can carve up the country if you want. I am not moving for any reason unless it involves a beach house in Ocean City, NJ. I look forward to death to be done with all the nonsense.

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  30. Bitter, I am well aware its not likely to be carved up, only because the left will insist ALL 50 states become like California.

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  31. Well, here is one for you.

    *********************************************************

    In the WV primary in May where my friend and former student in high school who was WV Senate President…

    Seems that a group called Stand for Us spent $400,000 in ads against the sitting VERY CONSERVATIVE Senate president saying he was a RINO (ABSOLUTELY UNTRUE), said he was in cahoots with Joe Biden to help illegal immigrants (ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE).

    (My friend says they spent close to a million dollars against him, but I have not seen the facts to back that claim.

    This group has stated they are targeting state R legislators in WV, Kentucky and Idaho. Supposedly, Stand for Us is very mad at Biden and open border policies, and Biden admin policies to allow illegals to be covered under federal health insurance.

    The Senate President went from 12 points ahead of his nearest of two primary opponents in April to getting beat soundly in the May primary.

    As far as I know, my friend was the only one who they targeted, but they may–MAY– have also targeted one other incumbent conservative senator who also lost.

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  32. Who paid to have Hunter Biden accompany his father Joe Biden on his trip to China?

    Who is paying for Jill Bidden to fly from France back to the U.S. to attend Hunter Biden trail and then fly back to Europe for other events there the next day?

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  33. Walt – Maybe the mastermind of that group is…..Tina. She thinks every Republican is a RINO except actual RINO Trump.

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  34. How will they make Alabama into California? Oh, wait. The expansion to 27 SCOTUS Justices fear.

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  35. Interesting enough California has an oversized influence over the rest of the country because of the entertainment industry. Many laws that don’t exists in other state, but do in CA, are shown in films and TV, making the rest of the country believe they are the same in their state. Same with morality. Don’t expect the entertainment industry to start putting out wholesome content…unfortunately the rest of the country, especially the young people, consume this, and fall prey to its message.

    Also, Bitter, no one is advocating for the split, but you do have to see how regional its become in the US.

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  36. dude. enough with the fascist crap

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  37. You really are a true moron aren’t you. Its no wonder you never come out of your moms basement, someone would probably pummel you.

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  38. I’m drunk and off my meds.

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  39. So Trump will win. And Putin will invade the Baltic nations. Fun. Fun. Fun times. And the end of the Democratic Republic. I’m gonna drink myself to death.

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  40. No greater love than this that a man lay down with Trump and accept that rape is inevitable.

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  41. Meds are your friend Paul. you know that, and I say that honestly, not as a joke.

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  42. Trump should be tried for treason. And anyone who supports Trump is a traitor to the Democratic Republic of the United States.

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  43. My girls got our first win of the season tonight over an older team 12-10! Our 8th graders took down the 9th and 10th grade squad. We previously lost to them 11-1 and 17-6.

    Liked by 1 person

  44. way to go Bitter

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  45. OK, I have had time to check the KY state legislature primary results. No incumbents were defeated there, so it does not seem that Stand for Us PAC spent any $$ there to defeat incumbent Rs.

    Plus, on the Stand for Us webpage they only have a long story up on how they defeated Senate President Blair in the WV primary–nothing about similar success in KY, or Idaho.

    _________________________

    In Idaho, there were a number of R incumbents defeated. But Stand for Us was not apparently involved there. It seems there were two other PACS that got heavily involved in spending against incumbents over gun issues some other issue and about half the incumbent Rs were defeated in the primary.

    **************************************************

    BTW, I was embarrassed that the WV primary turnout was about 30% (and the two farthest east counties in WV had the lowest turnout at 18% and 21%).

    BUT, in KY, the primary turnout was 12% !!!

    Some of the winners in the KY state senate races who won got less than 1,000 votes.

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  46. Bitter,

    Congrats on your girls winning.

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  47. that’s awful Walt. In this day and age when so much is at stake such apathy is pathetic. People need to wake up and realize the blessing they’ve been given to live where they live and not in some place where they have no voice and no vote

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  48. Fox News reporting that the corrupt judge has admitted that one of the kangaroo court jurors is guilty of misconduct in the sham trial of Trump. While the case was still going on, this was found posted on the social media page of the court:

    “’My cousin is a juror and says Trump is getting convicted! Thank you folks for all your hard work!!!!’”

    So as suspected, it never mattered what the evidence was, the guilty verdict was always a foregone conclusion.

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  49. Freefall continues…BIden job approval at net -19.2 at 538.

    Only 37.5 approve, an all-time low.

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  50. Paul

    -maybe don’t pick a “progressive” who supports Genocide like Joe, and perhaps the left won’t abandon ship next time.

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  51. The left chose an old racist A-hole as their candidate, and now they are mad Trump is winning.

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  52. jason Slava Ukraini! Avatar
    jason Slava Ukraini!

    Zzzzz…

    Bunu tries to insult the A-holes by calling Biden an A-hole?

    Others have tried before to besmirch our reputation, it is like water off a duck’s back.

    Like