Now we have polling data for all 50 states, and so here is an update of the chart showing the actual 2020 results against the gap in polling for 2024. Keep in mind some of these 2024 numbers are based on only one poll. This is the first update that includes some states showing a blue-shift, but as you can see these are deep red states, and not any of the hotly contested battleground states.
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
27 responses to “Red Shift / Blue Shift Update”
1st!
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god bless America! Always, not just in frustration because GF stole my first
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DW,
nice graphic!
Thanks!
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Thanks Walt! Glad to be of service. Here is an update on the betting markets, if anyone cares about them (I don’t):
@Polymarket
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 77% (+54)
🟦 Biden: 23%
.
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 64%(+28)
🟦 Biden: 36%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 61% (+22)
🟦 Biden: 39%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 59% (+18)
🟦 Biden: 41%
That is 268 EVs. Trump’s floor.
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Kennedy now on ballot in New Jersey
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This isn’t an indictment of DW’s Red/Blue shift model, but rather of the polling itself; if anyone believes that the only states to vote to the Left of 2020 this year are currently some of the reddest in the nation, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
It’s quite possible that every single state will vote to by he right of 2020 (just not enough to flip some of them, obviously).
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GF, its partly due to the caveat I mentioned, how several of these states have but one poll. And its easy for any given poll to sample left or right of the average of many polls. And when you have deep red states that in 2020 were probably maxed out as they often are for the Republican, then its easy for any given poll to fall short of that maximum.
What is interesting to me is the bottom end of the chart and how many of the deep blue states have been softened up and are so far removed from the 2020 gap.
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Ummm Trump needs to be lobbying for RFK Jr to join debate stage in June.
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RFK Jr is the biggest loser third party candidate I’ve ever seen. utterly pathetic joke of a candidate.
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Boden already said RFK not being there is one of debate stipulations btw along with being able to mute Trump.
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Secret Service recording of Jeo Boden landing
https://x.com/I_am_Bart_/status/1790392673636848112
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GF says:
“It’s quite possible that every single state will vote to by he right of 2020 (just not enough to flip some of them, obviously).”
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Isn’t tat what the chart DW posted is showing?
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Cash Cow here.
This evening, Walt is going to his high school alumni banquet. It is his 6oth reunion (if anyone can believe that (HA!).
Anyway…he was the class president, so he has to go to the podium and give a class response.
I am helping Walt by reviewing his speech.
I have crossed out several GFYs and extensive parts of his long-winded speech.
Also, I do not think it should begin with “I started out as a child…”
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Cow, have Walt change it to “I was born at a very early age…”
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Start with “It is so great to see so many here tonight. 60 years. Three generations have been born and raised since our graduation. And they still aren’t as cool or smart as us.”
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When Putin ignored demon king Charles
https://twitter.com/realchasegeiser/status/1791574928375873947
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“Isn’t tat what the chart DW posted is showing?”
Walt, not if you check out the first six states at the top of the list; all reliably Red states, but apparently shifting to the Dems.
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GF, those six states at top of the chart are based largely on one or two polls per state, and one of them is Zogby. So again, that is a huge caveat, not any real “movement” toward Biden. I expect that as the summer goes on, this chart will sharpen with more polling added.
Perhaps I should only include states on the chart with sufficient polling to get a real average.
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DW – Stay true to your plan. People can accept it, start their own blog or F off.
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I killed the thread again. Damn.
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Cash Cow here.
Walt’s alumni banquet speech for the class of 1964 was a smashing success.
He took my advice and opened with my suggestion of
“A priest, a pastor and a rabbi walk into a bar….”
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Seriously Walt’s speech was well received and everything went well.
Well, except for the kerfuffle and ruckus about Cash Cow needing to be seated at Walt’s table with Walt and Mrs. Walt. They finally agreed to let me have a chair.
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Guess what?
this afternoon when I went to punch the button to put down the garage door, it would not work.
Figuring there was something wrong with the door opener, I dragged out the big ladder, climbed up and unplugged and plugged back in the garage door opener. Still not working.
Got the tape measure and measured the two seeing eyes to see it there were aligned properly. Still not working.
Then I check the GFI outlet in garage….NO POWER ON THIS CIRCUIT!
Check the breaker box, everything is fine.
Check the GFI outlet and push to reset and turn off the amber light.
It will not reset. GFI outlet and needs to be replaced…
…FOR THE FOURTH TIME SINCE WE HAVE MOVED IN TO THIS HOUSE 4 YEARS AGO!.
(the house was 4 years old when we bought it)
Son of a…
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yeah, don’t complete that sentence…this is a family blog. But…I would be FURIOUS if that were my house
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Walt, I hope you told that outlet that it could GFI.
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U.S.A. is opening swap lines this week with the japs and dumping dollars into their system in exchange for overinflatedwildly overpriced japanese yen (in form of japanese treasuries.)
Money spigots going boom to keep the Japanese Yen from collapsing.
Great for risk assetsbitcoingold; terrible for wage earners as usual.
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For Janzam the Putin Lapdog “Slava Ukrani” has nothing to do with Nazis, it was used for decades before there were Nazis. For her education, here is why I proudly use it. Once again it shows how beholden Janzam is to Putin’s propaganda machine.
“In early March 2023, a video surfaced online showing the execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war.prisoner of war. The unarmed soldier’s last words were “Slava Ukraini” – a Ukrainian national salute that means “Glory to Ukraine” – before he was shot multiple times and collapsed to his death.
Ukrainian officials condemned the POW’s murder as a war crime. The Ukrainian people were horrified and indignant at yet another blatant display of the Russian military’s cruelty.
Even before he was identified, Oleksandr Matsiievskyi became a hero with his softly-spoken yet defiant last words, embodying the resoluteness of the Ukrainian people in the face of Russia’s all-out war. Artwork sprouted up online and offline, etching him into eternal memory, while many civilians and public officials took to social media to celebrate his bravery.
His last words, “Slava Ukraini,” is a more than century-old slogan deeply tied to Ukrainian identity.
Ukraine’s detractors have long attempted to depict the phrase “Slava Ukraini” as something nefarious, yet it has been a patriotic rallying cry among Ukrainians for generations, akin to “God save the King” in the U.K. or “Vive la France.”
The Putin Nurse should apologize for suggesting that I used Slava Ukraini because I support Nazis.
But because she has zero moral principles I won’t hold my breath.
Slava Ukraini!
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Walt’s alumni banquet speech for the class of 1964 was a smashing success.”
Walt has a lot of practice. His first speech was at the graduation of the Pyramid Building University in 2954 BC.
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