According to new poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates:
 | ARIZONA – Fabrizio, Lee & Associates |
| Trump | 48 |
| Biden | 44 |
| Five Candidates: | |
| Trump | 42 |
| Biden | 37 |
| Kennedy | 10 |
| Stein | 2 |
| Mapstead | 1 |
- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
- Weekend thread……
- Merry Christmas!
- Christmas Eve
- Eve of Christmas Eve
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
57 responses to “Trump ahead in ARIZONA”
First
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now thst all is as it should be…
i should have expected that Biden would blame trump for Iran’s attack, yet I still find myself appalled and shocked. Hiw can we teach our children to take responsibility for their actions when the person sitting in the White House won’t
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It’s all trumps fault for arming the mad mullahs.
-Free passer
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Just found these month-old polls that never got publicized anywhere from what I can tell. I am not going to start a new thread with them, but just add them to the pages that store the polls. The aggregator only includes polls with Kennedy, so these polls won’t change the numbers:
Echelon Insights/Heritage Foundation
Arizona
Trump 51
Biden 45
3/12-3/19; 401 LV
Georgia
Trump 52
Biden 42
3/12-3/19; 400 LV
Michigan
Trump 51
Biden 45
3/12-3/19; 400 LV
Nevada
Trump 51
Biden 44
3/12-3/19; 400 LV
Pennsylvania
Trump 49
Biden 45
3/12-3/19; 400 LV
Wisconsin
Trump 46
Biden 47
3/12-3/19; 400 LV
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https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump
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DW, those polls were completed before The Great Biden Surge. Trash them, stat. 😉
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something interesting that I have seen in the polls is that Trump is underperforming in WI in most polls when compared to MI, PA, GA, AZ etc
I wonder what that could be. I thought the state was trending back to slightly R but maybe Im mistaken
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Vic, Wisconsin independents and libertarian minded people tend to be more liberal than many states, and the Kennedy vote hurts Trump here more than Biden, but these polls should also include Stein and West, as especially Stein will grab 2%. Wisconsin is a tossup and will remain so through election day.
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New Jersey Senate:
Kim (D) 47
Bashaw (R) 38
Fairleigh Dickinson University
I guess after they saw Emerson’s POTUS poll of NJ, they chickened out asking the Trump/Biden question.
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In NJ, Kim is another Fake Moderate.
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Vic, I spend a lot of time in WI. Many rural areas have swung hard to R. Three central Wisconsin counties were 55-45ish Obama, went Trump in 2016, then heavier Trump in 2020. The moonbat areas of Milwaukee and Madison are not as big as Chicago or Minneapolis; so the rural areas can still win statewide.
There was fraud in 2020, and I believe Trump won the state (Scott Hounsell has written about some statistical anomalies there). That said, it is as close to even as a state can get. Unless either Trump or Biden pulls significantly ahead down the stretch, Wisconsin will be within one or two either way.
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Fortunately, there are no Biden Free Passers at HHR. Not sure why Tina keeps mentioning Biden Free Passers.
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Ukraine Joe gets a free pass. He has consistently slow-walked more effective weapons systems that might have made a large difference earlier. They certainly would have prevented needless deaths. But, he’s The Hero of Ukraine……
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Fortunately, there are no Biden Free Passers at HHR. Not sure why Tina keeps mentioning Biden Free Passers.”
Stop trying to be cheap with the points.
She said the “slava free passer”, that has to be me.
Of course, we are still waiting for her to answer my question, did she give Trump a pass for being the mother of all RINOS or, if you prefer, the Ultimate RINO.
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I think the Hero of Ukraine is Zelensky.
Yes, Biden could have given Ukraine better weapons and sped up/increased the training of Ukrainians but in general he has been more supportive of Ukraine than some of the isolationist morons on the R side who should know better.
On Ukraine, I give him a B -.
Trump gets a D- although as I have said many times before, once President he is not going to abandon Ukraine, bet on it. Yes, he will say it is “loans” and it is “accountable” to satisfy the isolationist idiots but in the end he is not going to let Ukraine be annexed by Putin on his watch.
Same with immigration. Those that expect “mass deportations” will be disappointed. Once in office Trump will announce with great fanfare that he is “closing the border” (won’t happen) and deporting criminals and undesirables (some will be deported). But of the 8 million or whatever illegals Biden let in, 95% are here to stay. If he deports more than a couple hundred thousand I would be very surprised.
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Kangaroo Court Day 1.
One less day Trump has to campaign, and many more dollars that could be used to fund it.
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New NYT Siena poll shows the race closer than the last poll.
FEAR NOT. IT HAS TO BE WRONG!
LET THE UNSKEWING BEGIN!
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2024/04/15/the-nyt-just-dropped-a-new-2024-poll-here-are-the-results-n2637774
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That’s old news Jason, we talked about that poll last week. That’s actually a pretty good poll for Trump, given they have him ahead nationally 47/46. Trump ahead nationally in the popular vote means he is on track to win the electoral college.
And this was the poll that expects a turnout of a D+6 electorate that is D-34, R-28, I-31.
Same poll has Biden’s Job Approval at 40/58 among likely voters, and 38/59 among registered voters.
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Everyone disappeared
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Seems like Vic.
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I’m around to dicuss polling etc., but I’ve got nothing today. Slow news day, it seems.
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waiting on the new CBS/YouGov national matchup poll
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Ma, the old poll bait ain’t worth a plugged nickel.
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Oh wow, there is no way to sugarcoat THIS poll…just terrible. Huge sample size too. This is a REAL poll.
FLORIDA
Trump 40
Biden 46
3244 RVs – Univ of North Florida
3/31-4/4, 2020
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Recent Sienna polls (since they switched to a likely voter screen three polls ago.
Biden +2 in mid December
Trump +4 in late February
Trump +2 in early April
Trump inched up six points in February, the Poll Deniers might say, then Biden surged to within two in April.
Or, they’re all with the same margin of error and the race hasn’t moved much at all the whole time.
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If any of you have a pacemaker device implanted, please check the YEAR on that Florida poll.
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You shouldn’t have told them….
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MAGA Mike Johnson signals he won’t put Senate supplemental on the floor despite increased pressure
The speaker faces mounting pressure to pass additional security funding for Israel and Ukraine from Democrats and some GOP lawmakers after Iran’s strike against Israel.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/johnson-signals-wont-put-senate-supplemental-floor-increased-pressure-rcna147747
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yeah, I just didn’t want to be responsible for someone having a heart attack or something.
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Stock market fell again sharply, Just bad economic data and continued ME tension.
But the free passers blame Trump
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Maybe you should find some Free Passers and post at them. They are not at HHR.
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Biden executive order:
“I am running for re-election, and election day is only about six months away, and so the stock market should only go UP never DOWN. To make sure it doesn’t go down again until November, I am ordering a bull market today, and every day until election day!”
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Its a joke of course, but so should be the notion of Biden just canceling loans that people signed and swore they would repay.
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Also watching very carefully to see what FDU does with the rest of their New Jersey poll. I confirmed from the link showing their questions, that a large section is “Further Questions Held for Future Release”
But that is EXACTLY what Monmouth did with their New Jersey poll, and in the end they shredded it and never released it.
All we have is that Emerson poll showing Biden +5 with Kennedy included and +7 in Trump vs. Biden only.
And don’t think that Emerson is somehow honest. They were the ones that did several battleground states in January, were shocked by the results, so they refused to release them. But when the numbers looked better for Biden in February, they mentioned the January numbers to show that improvement.
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The NY hush money trial could actually help Trump if he plays it right. The affair with PB Centerfold McDermott was legit and Stormy was fabricated. Had to pay both under the circumstances. Again prosecuted on a bogus technicality. It’s going to be a media circus.
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BREAKING IN WASHINGTON: The US Supreme Court has just upheld Idaho’s ability to implement a prohibition on sex reassignment procedures for minors. Healthcare practitioners may be subject to penalties of up to 10 years in prison for administering puberty blockers, hormone therapies, or mastectomies that do not align with the child’s biological sex.
AWESOME!
My son in law won our state case a couple weeks ago at a lower court.
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But the free passers blame Trump”
Hey Tina, have you given Trump a pass yet for being RINO EMERITUS?
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Johnson should tell the Freedom Caucus Putin Toadies to GFTs and do the right thing for Israel AND Ukraine
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Today is the 159 anniversary of the death of Abraham Lincoln and the 112th anniversary of the sinking of Titanic.
I was hoping Walt would share his personal memories of both events.
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It is also the day in 1947 when Jackie Robinson broke MLB’s color barrier with the Brooklyn Dodgers. Hard to believe 77 years ago people were such racist morons to oppose him. Sadly, the Phillies manager, Ben Chapman, was one of the worst. He was so vile that even Southern players on the Phillies were critical of him.
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Ben Chapman probably would have booed Mike Schmidt and Santa, too….
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Zzzzzzzzzzz
Santa was in 1967. Fans who booed Schmidt were idiots. They confused the fact that he was so great and naturally talented that he did not seem to give full effort.
Maybe you should criticize Dodgers and Giants fans who actually murder opposing fans at games.
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Those people were from Bad Philadelphia anyway.
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Why is Biden running so many abortion ads when so many at HHR say it is not a big issue?
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Still a zzzzzzzzzz
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What else does he have to talk about. Then again, maybe all the polls that say abortion is down the list of important issues are wrong. Toss ’em.
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Biden does not need abortion to be the most important issue to all voters. He just needs it to be the most important issue to enough voters.
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What else can he run on? Defunding the police? Men in women’s sports? Electric cars? The fact is by failing to endorse the more extreme conservative positions on abortion, Trump took a lot of the wind out the Dem sails on this issue. The ads seem like a desperate effort to keep the “Rs will outlaw all abortions” meme alive.
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Abortion does not need abortion to be the most important issue to all voters.”
Damm, Bitter just called Biden “Abortion”
HHR is a tough place.
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Too late. The Internet is forever.
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Babylon Bee:
Trump proves hes is a true Republican by compromising on abortion.
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Dobbs was the correct Constitutional decision. It has been a political lifeline to Democrats and disaster for Republicans. All can be true.
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More Babylon Bee headlines
Rashida RTlaib condemns violence against innocent Iranian missiles.
Biden announces plan to win over young voters by getting rid of Blockbuster’s rental late fees
Biden furious to be called home from beach just because WWIII was starting
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I think a “disaster” is hyperbole.
Most Americans actually don’t agree on unrestricted abortion.
In my view, most people who view abortion as the MAIN issue in elections are already voting for Dems.
And yes, most Americans don’t think abortion should be completely banned either. The only way Dems can get an advantage on the issue is by trying to convince people that is what will happen if Trump wins.
I think it is a hard sell. The election won’t be decided on abortion. You read it first here.
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One of the problems Dem have is they think more people think like them than actually do. They think everyone supports the transgender agenda. Eco-terrorism. Unrestricted abortion. Defunding the police, etc.
The Dems might be overreaching on abortion. Only about 28% of Americans think abortion should be legal in ALL cases.
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I think abortion will be the issue that carries Biden to victory. I have already said I I expect Trump to lose and it will not be due to fraud.
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“I was hoping Walt would share his personal memories of both events.”
I remember both clearly.
But I did two episodes of fence painting today 11-2:30 (then rest and lunch break) and 4-7:30 p.m. Cleanup is a bitch.
Got 11 more sections of fence done. 25 of the 47 inside fence sections done. And tops hand brush painted on about 5 more sections.
Off to NC on Tuesday and Wednesday for funeral.
Next window of opportunity for fence is Thursday. Meeting Friday–then I have to get more 5 gallon buckets of paint. These 712 feet of fence will cost about $1,000 in paint alone. It will be the Walt Memorial Fence.
But late afternoon on Friday is possible as well as Saturday. And Monday and Tuesday of next week. Of course, it depends on the fricking weather–WIND AND RAIN. Then we fly to Boston to drive to NH to see my sister who is now under Hospice care at the nursing home.
Last night, some scattered showers here. lots of lightning and thunder.
TODAY, there was big storm clouds in the distance and thunder, some rain fell while I was painting. I told the rain to GFY.
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