According to a new poll from The Bullfinch Group:
 | ARIZONA – Bullfinch Group |
| Trump | 44 |
| Biden | 38 |
| Other | 13 |
| US Senate: | |
| Lake | 41 |
| Gallego | 41 |
- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
- Weekend thread……
- Merry Christmas!
- Christmas Eve
- Eve of Christmas Eve
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
20 responses to “Trump up 6 in ARIZONA. Senate race tied.”
First.
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only two kinds of people. The quick/first and the dead
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Free passers had a bad week.
Inflation is surging.
Market dropped.
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Never heard of bull-finch.
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Bullfinch is new this cycle. They just recently had Trump trailing in MI 39/42 and trailing in PA 41/44. But absolutely no track record. Not saying that to disparage them, just reality. They are new.
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There are no Free Passers at HHR.
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DW, just posted the following for you at RRH given your putting up the D-Corpse poll:
DW, did some math (took a while to crunch all the 2020 numbers, though I am skeptica about turnout being the same…we’ll see). Anyhow, those nine swing states amounted to 32,730,240 votes (20.638% of the NPV), and Biden’s overall margin was 371,957 (1.136%). A roughly 5-5.5% swing in these “battlegrounds” is consistent with the overall swing we’ve seen in national polling, so there’s that.
Just for fun, I also ran numbers on the Big 3 for each side (CA, NY, IL, and then TX, FL, and OH). Here is what I found;
Big 3 (D) had 32,194,036 votes total (20.3% of NPV), and Biden won there by 8,122,034, or 25.228% (7,097,010 out of CA and NY alone; there’s the Biden NPV margin and then some in just those two states – NPV margin was 7,060,528).
Big 3 (R) had 28,351,541 votes (17.877% of the NPV), and Trump won the group by 1,478,568, or 5.215%. What stood out is that TX outvoted FL by a mere 234,653 votes, despite having enough population to warrant 9 more Congressional Districts. I’ll be interested to see the difference between the two this time around given the great migrartion of Republicans to FL from Blue states, as well as the increased Hispanic vote in the RGV and elsewhere in TX (Enten amongst others noted that the raw Dem vote in those areas of TX remained roughly static, it’s just that Trump turned out a bunch of new voters for whatever reason).
To save you the time, the other 35 states and DC amounted to 65,319,078 votes, and the overall Biden margin in that grouping was a whopping 45,105 (0.069%).
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I saw that…thanks.
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btw Met haters…they are 5-2 since their horrendous starts and almost won both those games
yesterday they scored 16 runs….which is what they scored in their first 9 games. Ouch. Last three games. 29 runs
meet the Mets, meet the Mets…step right up and great the Mets. Bring the kiddies, bring your wife…
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and their newest deGrom is striking out 19 batters per 9 innings at AAA
…guaranteed to have the time of your life, because the Mets are really socking that ball, hitting the home runs over the wall
East side, west side, everybody’s coming down…to meet the M-E-T-S Mets of New York town
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Vic/DW- You poor bastards. You know what’s coming.
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Julie Kelly:
Second–and stunningly–Jay Bratt basically admitted they do not have proof that Walt Nauta, charged with conspiring with Trump to conceal classified files from Trump’s lawyer then the FBI to impede grand jury investigation, moved boxes that actually contained papers with classified markings.
He also indicated he did not believe DOJ would have to prove that at trial. HUH?
That prompted a heated response by Woodward. “Show us the evidence” he said. If, as Bratt stated, they can’t or don’t have to prove Nauta moved boxes with records with classified markings “there is no crime.”
DOJ making “assumptions” that any boxes Nauta moved contained sought-after evidence.
And get this: All the boxes retrieved during MAL raid are at the corrupt Washington FBI field office. Agents apparently removed the alleged “classified documents” and put some sort of marking as to where the contraband paper was in the box.
Suuuure.
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The Box doc case is the Russia hoax 2.0.
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we scored 16 runs in a game. Let me dream
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“I am surprised that went in the basement. Considering all of the plaques, dinosaur attacks, asteroid and meteor strikes, and natural disasters that you have survived, I though you would go outside and yell, “Bring it!” at the storm.”
Bitter,
I DID go outside with the other family members to watch and listen. They say it sounds like train and I told my son, “if I hear the sound of a train I am out of here and heading for the shelter room in the basement.” A few seconds later I heard a train noise…and a train whistle of a train on the main line between D.C. and Kansas City that is only 1/2 mile down the road from my house.
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DW
April 12, 2024 at 3:39 pm
jason, and all the Asian “stans” are a joke, Putin could retake them any time he wanted to.
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DW, Does that include Stan Lee?
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I hate the wind about as much as I hate Biden.and woke Dems.
I come back from my meeting at 2 p.m. change clothes and eventually grab the 5 gallon paint bucket that has about an inch of still in the bottom. I wanted to put stain o the TOPS of the vertical fence boards of about a dozen sections of fence. I stir that up and walt away to get something and the fricking wind blew the 5 gallon paint bucket over. Lost about 1/2 of what was in there.
I understand now why people in Okla. during the dust bowl went crazy due to the incessant fricking wind. I am trying to do the touch up painting and the wind is blowing hard THE WHOLE FRICKING TIME. The weather gauge instrument says the constant wind was mostly in the 20-25 mph range. It was shaking the fence. I wore an old winter coat and a toboggan and painted for 3 hours in the wind.
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if you want to know what that wind feels like, drive down the road at 25 miles an hour, put the window down and stick your head out and drive like that for 3 hours.
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hmmmmm 6 out of 8.
Bitter – Let me enjoy it…
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BTW Jason, how much would it gall the PGA tour and all the writers if DeChambeau wins. Im rooting for it, though I also like Scottie as well.
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Im playing in the morning and went to the range today…and used my “Masters” swing. 😉
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