- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
- Weekend thread……
- Merry Christmas!
- Christmas Eve
- Eve of Christmas Eve
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
76 responses to “Waiting for polls…”
First!
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damn!!!!
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jason was definitely correct about how the media will leverage rescue polls. Saw one story where they just flat out reported that Trump is getting slaughtered in PA, that Biden is way ahead. Period. They don’t even mention which polls, but obviously they were referring to the Franklin & Marshall poll showing Biden ahead by 10, although with Kennedy included it was only by 2. This was that goofy poll with a small sample where trump got two MORE points with Kennedy added to the poll, the only poll of any state where I have seen that result.
And so nevermind that other polls with MUCH larger sample, double or even triple the samples, show Trump ahead, the media knows of only ONE poll of PA that matters, and its this Franklin & Marshall poll.
Wall Street Journal, Redfield & Wilton, CNN, Morning Consult, Fox News…none of those are valid, only Franklin & Marshall.
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This was posted at RRH:
“For comparison, the GOP is at right-before-2020 numbers in total registrants, but the Democrats are down a whole *million* registered voters, about a fifth of their total voters that year.
Some other statistics compared to 2020:
Hispanics went from 948k D – 640k GOP in 2020 to 775k D – 715k GOP
The GOP is also net positive with voter registrations with Blacks, Asians/Pacific Islands/”Others” over that time span, though down about 40k with White voters and a bit with the other categories. Democrats are down in every group.”
And yet to win the election, Trump needs to flip 38,962 voters, 2020 Biden voters who now would vote for Trump in GA, AZ, NV, and NE_02, and that would get Trump to 269.
Biden doesn’t have much room to play with.
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Jason I play that course quite often, lots of local tournaments there. I can’t tell you a. Hiw unvelieveble a 28 is on the back nine if that course, much less anywhere
and
b. That was the easiest approach shot into that hole. Throw it behind and funnel it back. I actually turned it off before thst shot to do some work as I thought he’d have a shirt birdie chance. Wtf. Nerves I bet”
Just get it on the green for Christ sake. I am a terrible golfer and I could make that shot, not near the hole but anywhere on the green 9/10. I am not sure it was nerves, I think he just figured he was dialed in and went for the hole without allowing for any margin of error. Bhatia was injured, he could have outlasted him without any heroics. Did you see the stakes? 2 years full exemption, 1.6 million, Masters, etc. Yeah, he made the record books but I would rather win the tournament.
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Brazil has an extradition treaty with USA. Deep state hatching a plan to take out Musk using a third party. CIA has entered the cha
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Communist Pope refuses to go completely woke and endorse the trans agenda.
Now he will see that the Marxists that love him for being a Marxist will hate him for being transphobic.
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I guess everyone is getting ready for the eclipse. It’s been so silent the last two days.
So I will throw this out there. In the show For All Mankind they alter some of the reality of the day, including who gets elected President (spoiler alert Gore and Ted Kennedy get elected). So the question of the day is, what would have happened if JFK hadn’t been killed. Would he have won re-election (remember he wasn’t polling well). Would he have been popular if he had won in 1964…would he have kept going with Vietnam? Would the disillusionment of the 1960’s have happened? Would his brother have won in 1968.
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That was me, don’t know why its not showing as logged in
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Third time a charm
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Have spent the last 4 hours getting ready to begin spray painting the fence.
My concern is…some wind.
–Had to read the instructions on the sprayer, and put it together.
–build and tape together a plastic and metal poles barrier to place behind the parts of the fence I will begin spray painting, hopefully sometime this afternoon.
–rounding up paint brushes, etc. for when I have to do work with them instead of sprayer.
–and the most time consuming involved one long section of fence behind one of the multiple big raised flower beds right next to the fence. Behind the raised flower beds is a row of skinny decorative concrete thingies I put in to keep the dirt off the fence. Problem is there are leaves behind them and in the fence and grass and other things growing that needed to be painstakingly removed and grassed rooted out.
–and I have to be very careful (according to wife) not to disturb the various flowers that are beginning to come up in those flower beds.
–She tells me to stop and eat some lunch.
–and tells me I cannot work outside during the eclipse (not sure why).
I will have to PAINT BY BRUSH THE LOWER 6 INCHES OR SO OF ALL THE FENCE BEHIND THAT FLOWER BED BECAUSE THE CONCRETE BORDER THINGIES BLOCK THE LOWER 6 INCHES OF THE FENCE BOARDS.
UGGH!
Then I can start spraying…
BUT…once I start spraying I cannot stop for 30 minutes to do something else. BECAUSE the paint in the sprayer will dry and clog up the sprayer and involve a lot of time and cleaning.
I sure hope the spraying the 700+ feet of fence goes quickly.
BUT, they say after spraying a section–AND BEFORE IT DRIES, I should go over the boards with a paint brush…GEEZUS TOMORROW
I sense disaster.
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I have heard that to watch the eclipse safely, all you have to do is:
–turn your back to the sun
–spread your legs wide apart
–bend way down and look at the sun between your wide spread legs and with your head upside down. Sort of like you are mooning the eclipse.
**********************************************************************
THEY say you do not need special glasses to see the eclipse if you follow those steps.
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I have to take Walt’s advice. This is his 947th total eclipse he must know what he is talking about.
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I took a break and came inside to fix some lunch. I did notice the time and went out on the deck and looked at the eclipse (through the special glasses).
Big Whoop.
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Once I finish eating lunch and the sirens blare to give the all clear signal, I will go out to start the hand painting by brush on the lower sections.
No bets on whether I will actually use the prayer today…
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Full eclipse here. Pretty awesome. Once in a lifetime.
What is not awesome is Trumps lame position on abortion. He continues to more damage to the conservative movement on every level … I would argue just as much as any Uniparty RINO. Where’s Tina? Which is what his second term looks like if he survives … which I doubt will happen.
How about encouraging states constitutional rights and having a pro life position at the same time?
Nope…Trump is not pro life … the immoral man he is. Just much less pro abortion than Biden.
“It’s all about will of the people.” Trump Says.
The reason we are a constitutional republic is because our founders understood some things should not be left to the “will of the people.” “The people” sometimes want evil things that violate a God-given right to life.
If you don’t get this you are lost.
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Trump is not a social conservative or any kind of conservative.
Only morons think he is.
But I disagree that there is protection for a 15 week fetus in the Constitution just like I disagree there is a right to abortion in the Constitution.
In this case, letting people in each state decide seem like the right thing to me.
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“Just much less pro abortion than Biden.” Okay, and Trump has a functioning brain and can walk up a flight of stairs without falling, and Trump doesn’t need to be led around by the hand.
I was for DeSantis, and I don’t personally like Trump. But I am going to do all I can to help Trump win, because the country cannot survive four more years of Biden and whoever the puppet-master is.
I was for DeSantis because that was doing the election the easy way and potentially getting 8 years of solid leadership. But most in the GOP decided to do the election the hard way, with only the potential for 4 years, probably of mediocre results.
But Trump is still light years ahead of Biden. There is no point to going on in bitter disappointment on how the GOP primary played out. I have moved on and am doing what I can to help Trump win.
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Bitter was smart not to pay $100 a head to watch the eclipse here, although the company and the cider and pickled lamb tongues would have mitigated the fact the eclipse was a total bust, 92% sounds like a lot but at most it looked like it was 5:30 PM instead of 3:30 PM, BFD.
The birds thought so too, they did not freak out as advertised, and neither Amos’ cows or Lupita even lifted their heads from grazing, a big FU to the eclipse.
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Eclipse was fun, but mostly just showing it to my three year old son. We did the paper trick (which, tbh, I had never done in my 45+ years).
Someone above asked the alt-history JFK in ’64 question, so here is my take. He wasn’t polling all that well, but it’s not like he was in Biden territory. Right or wrong (mostly wrong, in retrospect), he got a lot of cred for the Cuban Missile Crisis resolution, and though he was in hot water in the south and blue collar areas in the north over civil rights, given how many of the northern areas stuck with LBJ, I don’t know what Republican then running could have peeled off those voters (this wasn’t Nixon in ’68 with all the law and order stuff harming the Dem prospects). Kennedy being killed probably killed any Republican hopes in ’64; Nixon’s ’62 loss in CA almost certainly put him out of the running, and we had, what, Rockefeller and Goldwater? I still think a Goldwater vs Kennedy race would have been interesting, been largely policy based (they were friendly to one another in the Senate), and could have had some demographic effects downballot (WWC southerners moving to Goldwater, moderate NE Republicans shifting to JFK), and Kennedy’s dawdling in Civil Rights might not have seen a 95-5 AA split for the Dems (Nixon won about about 1/3 of the AA vote in 1960).
Ultimately, I suspect JFK wins by about 53-47, perhpas a little bigger. Lib fanbois like to believe if would have been a 59-41 blowout, but I just don’t see it absent major events like JFK being killed and LBJ’s nuking of Goldwater. A number of GOP Senate losses in ’64 were reasonably close (some even razor thin); RFK would not have run in NY wth his brother still in the WH, so Kenneth Keating probably holds on, and NV, OK and TN at a minimum flip to the GOP, and Probably IN and OH as well. The other TN seat. WI and WY were close enough that not having a top of the ticket blow out might have gained one or both, which woud have mitigated the 1958 disaster when those first term Dems were up for re-election.
The real “what-if” is would Kennedy have kept Johnson? Or would LBJ stick around? There was no love lost between them, and Kennedy was fond of George Smathers while LBJ considered leaving the ticket and going back to the Senate where he was king.
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DW…just wait until Trump punts on gender treatments for minors and chicks with dicks playing women’s sports.
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Jeff, that is one issue I don’t think he will punt; he came our forcefully against the Trans Day swap of Easter. It’s also a no-brainer winner not only across the base, but with Hispanics and those Blacks who are gettable (either to crossover or just stay home and not vote Dem).
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After the election if he wins… he punts.
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I smell a ragin’ case of TDS.
Chicon
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“I have moved on and am doing what I can to help Trump win.” DW.
Sure…have at it. Not me. In my district the MAGA Trump endorsed candidate is attempting to primary our rock solid conservative with a spine.
I donated to his campaign in 2016 & 2020. Voted for him twice. I will reluctantly vote for him unless he caves more before Election Day. But that’s it.
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Trump ain’t that stupid…but it’s what he really believes.
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The poor bastard has terminal TDS.
I think he will go the way of Amoral Scumbag, who to this day still hasn’t forgiven Trump for trashing hapless Jeb!
I don’t disagree that Trump is an opportunist. But to say he would favor a transgender agenda is just character assassination, has not basis whatsoever.
Stupid TDS nonsense JeffP is known for.
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It’s truth baby.
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I am not that sure Kennedy would win re-election. He didn’t really win in 1960 either, if truth be known, and its hard to see he was going to be more popular in 1964 than he was in 1960.
He probably would have beaten Goldwater, but I am not sure Goldwater would have been the nominee in 1964 either.
Kennedy was very popular with the media and the coastal elites. But America in 1964 was a very different country than it is today and Kennedy’s ‘Camelot” did not connect that well with middle America.
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JeffP
April 8, 2024 at 5:06 pm
It’s truth baby.”
Nah, it’s just BS. I guess it is your fallback idiocy since your corrupt DOJ and rogue prosecutor friends you had so high hopes for haven’t derailed Trump.
Show me one statement/action by Trump that gives any indication he would favor men in women’s sports or a transgender “agenda”.
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In truth, I was a stronger DeSantis supporter than JeffP, and I can prove it.
Ron dropped out and endorsed Trump.
And so even though I strongly dislike Trump, I am going to honor the wishes of my preferred candidate and support the one he endorsed.
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I think that if JFK had lived, he would have also stayed and escalated the war in Vietnam. His weakness caused the Cuban Missile Crisis so I don’t give him as much credit for resolving it. He would still have been looking to prove he could stand up to communism.
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“In truth, I was a stronger DeSantis supporter than JeffP, and I can prove it.
Ron dropped out and endorsed Trump.”
A little self righteous.
Well…I think it was more of keeping a pledge than a “endorsement” He never appeared publicly with Trump. He knows he is a cancer to conservative principles.
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Easy…
https://nypost.com/2023/09/16/trump-fumbles-megyn-kelly-query-can-a-man-become-a-woman/
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I don’t give him any credit for “resolving it”.
He should have supported the Bay of Pigs invasion, the exiles were willing to do the fighting, all they needed was air and logistical support. And the force had to be larger than 1,500.
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https://adage.com/article/marketing-news-strategy/trumps-bud-light-support-puts-brand-back-political-conversation/2540676
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Ballot Access Update for Battleground states.
Who cares about Kennedy, Stein and West in states that will be a blowout for Biden or Trump. But here is an update impacting states that at the widest stretch could be in play:
AZ: Kennedy, Stein
CO: Stein
FL: Stein
GA: Kennedy
ME: Stein
MI: Kennedy, Stein
NC: Kennedy, Stein
NH: Kennedy
NM: Stein
NV: Kennedy
OR: Stein, West
TX: Stein
WI: Stein
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The sky was overcast in Philadelphia. It got a little darker and then brighter. Yeah.
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Pro life leader Frank Pavone, the National Director of Priests for Life, was happy with Trump’s abortion stance. Sorry Jeff, to produce such credible reasons for why you are so wrong. Pavone issued the following statement to Trump’s abortion position:
“President Trump is taking a similar stance to the one taken by the Founders. They had to start a nation; we have to save the nation by winning this election. Right now we have a nation divided on abortion. But by saving the nation itself from destruction by the Democrats – by saving the Constitution, free and fair elections, freedom of speech and religion, and by stopping the extremism of the Democrats on abortion — we will in fact preserve the very mechanism by which we can continue to build a culture of life.
I thank the President for his statement but I don’t expect him to do my job; I expect him to do his. My job and the job of the pro-life movement is to lay out the moral absolute of the right to life, which does not admit of compromise. No abortion can ever be justified.
Pro-life leaders, meeting recently for strategic planning, issued thisjoint statement that reflects the pro-life work that needs to be done in the next seven months.
We look forward to continuing to work together with President Trump and countless citizens to leading our nation to ever greater fidelity to its founding principle that governments are instituted precisely to preserve the unalienable right to life.”
I know Jeff tries to discredit DJT whenever possible. However, RDS’s 6 week abortion ban has proved to be an extreme measure in our current highly divided environment. It’s now going to precipitate bringing abortion up in the November election, acting as bait to bring out more Dems to overturn this ban, putting FL in more jeopardy of defeating Dems. Trump warned DeSantis this would happen. But, by RDS not seeing the bigger picture of securing an election first before promoting such a restrictive abortion ban, abortion will now become the headliner in Florida’s presidential election, rather than more important issues like the economy and border etc.
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ya I saw a bunch of ppl standing outside staring at that thing at work.
I told everyone I don’t trust some cheap glasses sent from China. They might be ok but they might not.
No thanks
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Trump has now held every position on abortion from Planned Parenthood funder to Pro-Life.
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I worked on hand painting the lower foot of the fence. On the tie on my knees or butt, twisting to try to get paint brush in tight places and twisting to try to keep off the wife’s flowers. coming up. Cleaned up me and the paint brushes etc. Ate supper.
I can barely move.
More pain in hips and knees and back than I have ever had.
No using the electric paint sprayer today.
Will try using that tomorrow.
If I can get out of bed…
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Well put by Seth Dillon…and MAGA hates it…and so do some of you who defend Trumps stand today. Including several “Christian” political ops. What a joke.
1. It is wrong to intentionally kill an innocent human being unless you live in a state that says it’s fine.
2. Abortion intentionally kills an innocent human being.
3. Therefore, abortion is wrong unless you live in a state that says it’s fine.
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You are okay with killing babies for political advantage. Fine. At least admit it. Pavone…who freaking cares what he thinks.
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So you’re voting Biden so he can put radicals on the court?
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How idiotic have people become that when a conservative calls out Trump for his compromising stands on issues that built the damn party.
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So does that mean if we lose the House, Senate and White House it was really Trump the reason we lost all these elections Trump is so concerned about?
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Wrong, Trump is the only GOP president to put reliable conservatives on the court.
No Roberts, no Harriet Miers
No Souter
No Sandra, No Kennedy
No John Paul Stevens
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So I agree that if Kennedy survives that Goldwater is not the candidate. His candidacy was a sacrificial lamb to the Taft part of the party, who was a small c conservative. Definitely dedicated to limited government, if he hadn’t have died in 53 he might have been the nominee in 60 over Nixon.
I don’t know who would have run, but my guess it would have been a liberal R in the Rockefeller mode. Kennedy’s approval rating had fallen from 82% to 58% and was dropping in Nov 63. Not exactly danger zone, but as noted above, he barely “won” the election in 1960 and he would have definitely kept going in Vietnam, which was a losing proposition no matter who was in charge
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How idiotic. Just because I know Trump is cancer to conservative principles doesn’t mean I wouldn’t vote for him. I voted for Romney and McCain against Obama for Gods sake.
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Hmmm…Kavanaugh and Barrett ARE NOT RELIABLE conservatives. Do your homework.
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Deepstate simply didn’t want to the Kennedy’s in there no matter what
Killed JFK
Killed MLK immediately after he was wiretapped telling a friend he was planning on endorsing RFK
Killed RFK once he got momentum in the primary
Killed JFK Jr once he took the lead over hillary in her senate race (Epstein groomed candidate to take the WH next)
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“Hmmm…Kavanaugh and Barrett ARE NOT RELIABLE conservatives. Do your homework.”
They are compared to the people the last 6 GOP presidents before Trump have appointed to the SC.
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Deep state = time to tune out
you can make claims without blaming a deep state. I don;t think you truly understand what it would take to accomplish everything claimed there. Remember, it only takes one to break their silence to expose something, and the sheer magnitude and number of people involved in one of those alleged actions, much less four, eliminates the possibility or probability they occured.
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BL… “Trump has now held every position on abortion from Planned Parenthood funder to Pro-Life.”
And so called Pro Life organizations and “Christian” political ops are completely okay with it. That’s the impact of Trump on the GOP.
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Pain pills kicking in.
I can move.
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Jeff – I can see your points as someone dedicated to the pro-life movement, but I would like to know what you believe is the end game for the movement. Do we continue to push for a complete ban on abortion (with potential exception for rape) nationally.
Right now we have taken a huge step forward getting Abortion returned to the states, but realistically, do we stand a chance of getting a national ban, and if we do push for it, what are the electoral consequences. We’ve made gains because we won elections, but will a push for a national ban cost us the presidency and some congressional seats?
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Trump targets Lindsey Graham for pushing abortion ban
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/i-blame-myself-lindsey-graham-president-trump-blasts/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=i-blame-myself-lindsey-graham-president-trump-blasts
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I am frankly tired of Jeff’s sticking it to Trump, belittling everything he says, resoundingly saying everyone who supports him is cultish because his guy didn’t even get near the finish line. Somehow, when your candidate couldn’t get through the first couple of primaries, it should say something about his overall appeal to the party he was running under. No matter what a neat guy RDS is to you Jeff, he simply couldn’t cut the mustard. Maybe his stature and public charisma will grow in the next few years. But, the main hope we have to turn the dem agenda around is to support our nominee, keeping the slings and arrows to a minimum, because if the Dems win we will suffer much worse under their policies.
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SCOTUS properly ruled on Roe v Wade…it’s a states rights issue. The national ban is a straw man argument at this point and isn’t possible Constitutionally from how SCOTUS ruled without legislative law or amendment to the Constitution.
The issue I have is Trumps continuing deterioration of core conservative values and convictions. He personally is taking a pro choice position from 1990’s…publicly. This is just one of several compromises he has made since early 2020. Trump Populism has taken over the GOP and has very little room for solid conservatives or values anymore. If elected he will cave on transgender craziness too.
In my congressional district MAGA is running a Trump supported candidate against an our solid conservative two term representative. They will win…but it’s the principle… they have none. It is happening in other districts too. It’s disgusting to me.
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I have values and live by uncompromising conviction. You have a problem with that? You defend Trump like a brainwashed groupie.
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Ok, this is me not keeping up with Trump recently. When he was President he took a decidedly pro-life position, and backed it up with Judges. What happened this past week or so that changed that. I am asking, because, to be honest, I have been disconnected from politics while concentrating on other issues the past couple of weeks. thanks
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Jan my opinions of Trumps failures in 2020 were long before RDS ever announced he was running.
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“Trump Populism has taken over the GOP and has very little room for solid conservatives or values anymore. If elected he will cave on transgender craziness too.”
Guess the party shouldn’t have let Neocon lunatics take over the party creating two fake wars, institutionalizing American torture, Patriot Act, trashing Ron Paul, supporting the Gaza genocide etc.
Now you get Trump
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I need to go to bed…but I will post links when I have time and your online.
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And Jan there are plenty of conservatives like me that feel the same way.
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DeSantis with just a vessel for the Never Trumpers to take him out and restore Bushism.
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….shrouded in fake prolife BS even though the man had autism and didn’t know what he was campaigning about.
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ugh, and then the idiot shows up. I guess his mom turned his internet in the basement back on.
Hey Coward. Paul and his ilk are the worst. He’s a scumbag…
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https://x.com/heliand_22/status/1731747534433853645
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2024
This is a pro choice position in the nineties.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-signals-support-15-week-abortion-ban-rcna144213
2016
Trump as “Pro Life”
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/19/trump-ill-appoint-supreme-court-justices-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-abortion-case.html
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So, Rs like goober and bid s Beotch want to push a federal ban on abortion, even though for decades they “claimed” roe vs wade was wrongly decided by federal courts.
These same Rs have no issues with paying for abortions of illegals.
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@AbbyJohnson former Planned Parenthood Now Pro Life and Leader
“No, I will not be praising a pro-choice statement made by someone who says they are “prolife.” No, I’m not going to say that a person who has said they are sooooo prolife for years still needs to be “educated” on this issue. No “prolife leader” is celebrating any statement made today. Don’t listen to anyone who says that we are. The only people “celebrating” a prochoice statement are people who don’t believe in protecting innocent children from abortion at the moment of conception. We have got to stop listening to “leaders” who are willing to sell their soul for an election and/or “leaders” who still need education on the most important issue in our lifetime. If you don’t understand the significant damage abortion does to our society, then step aside.”
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I wonder what Trump will do with the Fauci matter?
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Jeff. I read the article and I think maybe I am misunderstanding, or misinterpreting the position. I see this as the next step after overturning Roe v Wade to get something on the books nationally. A full scale ban on abortion altogether would a. never stand legal scrutiny, b. would be an electoral nightmare resulting in a super majority of Dems in the Senate and big numbers in the House.
Could I be wrong. Yes, but I want to understand how your view, and why you are concerned. Getting Roe v Wade overturned was step one, and he accomplished that, and now what is next. To try to do something on a national level that limits this horrendous practice. What am I missing.
I appreciate you engaging me in this discourse.
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Irony Meter explodes. Jan trashed every candidate not named Trump.
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