According to Spry Strategies:
 | MICHIGAN – Spry Strategies |
| Trump | 48 |
| Biden | 44 |
| Three Candidates: | |
| Trump | 43 |
| Biden | 40 |
| Kennedy | 9 |
New Book:
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrat +9 | 213 | 222 |
***There are no “freepassers” here***
New Book:
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrat +9 | 213 | 222 |
***There are no “freepassers” here***
According to Spry Strategies:
| MICHIGAN – Spry Strategies |
| Trump | 48 |
| Biden | 44 |
| Three Candidates: | |
| Trump | 43 |
| Biden | 40 |
| Kennedy | 9 |
20 responses to “Trump up 4 in Michigan”
first.
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The “Biden surge” continues in Michigan!
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In the month of March, there were 11 national polls showing Biden ahead. There were three ties. And there were 27 showing Trump ahead. But oh yeah, Biden’s sure surging.
Like I said in the last thread, if Biden were to surge in the polls, I would be the first to admit it. But checking every metric, Biden Job approval, personal favorability, national polling, state polling, there is no evidence of any sort of surge.
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I see both sides of the argument here. Dw is correct in that there is no real surge, it’s just media hype, whike at the same time I understand completely what Jason is saying…basically, be diligent. Polls do sway public opinion because the media will hype them as truth. People love front runners, and sadly, most voters are uniformed voters, merely believing what the msm feeds them.
we have to be very aware and not to fall into a trap where we become complacent.
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Vic, I have no problem with that part of jason’s argument. Of course the left will use every means, like propaganda, to help their cause. They are trying to arrest Trump and throw him in jail to defeat him. Sure, we have to fight all that. But certainly there is no reason to agree with the messaging, or be scared by it.
Marist and Quinnipiac dropped some national polls in the average, and it created a dip. That is far short of a trend. But if one looks closely, one can easily see that the Trump 45, Biden 48 Quinnipiac poll was actually a one point improvement for Trump, compared to their prior poll. The Marist poll was a 1 point improvement for Biden. But either way, its all statistical noise. No trend.
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Hi Folks
Trump 49
Biden 41
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/election_2024_trump_8_over_biden_third_party_candidates_have_little_impact
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Hi Marv!
Interesting to see rasmussen this far ahead for Trump. Last cycle his polls skewed heavily to Biden, IIRC
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Hi Vic,
Yes, that’s my recollection too. RAS tilted toward Biden last time.
Also, both DW and jason are correct. I agree with DW that there has been little to no shift toward Biden, other than statistical noise, if that. I also agree with jason in that we should not become complacent.
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Is that a new ras pole? Is it taken well after the disastrous SOTU and Tranny day?
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Aloha Tina,
How is your trip to paradise going? If you don’t mind my asking, where are you staying this time?
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Marv,
Rasmussen must not have gotten the memo that we are in the midst of a “Biden Surge” and I agree that we cannot become complacent or take anything for granted.
The jet is available if you want it for the Final Four.
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Expected Consequences? Today it was reported that cases of TB and Measles has increased significantly in Chicago…the location(s) of the outbreaks? Illegal Alien housing centers (I refuse to call them Migrants. Migrants come here legally, respecting the system and the people who came legally before them).
Thank you Biden…TB cases in Chicago have now soared to their highest level in decades.
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Tina,
1099 LV’s, 31 Mar-2 Apr
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DW,
Thanks for the jet offer. I’ll take it to New York for the Yankees opening series against Toronto, followed by three game against Miami.
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Marv – ugh,. Just seeing that name of the Satan loving team made me throw up my breakfast
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Sorry, the “feel good” BS about there not being a shift to Biden is exactly that, BS.
Facts don’t lie, look at the graph.
Now, as I pointed out in the previous thread, there will be many ebbs and flows before this is over, so nobody should be offended when it is pointed out that the RCP average has narrowed.
And btw, DW is putting words in my mouth, I didn’t say anything about a “surge”. I said JeffP was correct in saying the gap had narrowed. And it has.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
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No, I am not doing that. I am looking at all the polls. It is statistical malpractice to do what you are doing. There is no trend here. Its the bouncing up and down of polling like it always does. You need a longer time to see if anything sticks.
I am looking at the polls, you are falling for the messaging.”
Nah, that dog won’t hunt.
You are basing everything on emotion, and you want polls to validate them. If they don’t, you attack them as wrong.
Malpractice my ass.
I am tired of the “good polls for Trump are right, bad polls for Trump are wrong” BS.
We have been down this rabbit hole before.
I am going to call it as I see it.
If that makes it “malpractice”, so be it. If it makes me more like RRH, so be it.
No free lunch.
The graph speaks for itself. Whether it is a “dip” or a “trend” is irrelevant.
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I can’t wait for the next “surge” in favor of Trump.
I will call it a “dip” for Biden and say the polls “oversampled” Republicans.
Just to watch heads explode, will be fun.
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jason, you are the one all emotional here. I am looking at the polls. To get a trend, you need a change that sticks. There has not been one. Check the graph again once they add the new Rasmussen showing Trump up 49, 41. I doubt Trump is ahead that much. But I also have very good reason to be skeptical of a Marist poll showing a D+7 turnout model.
New thread by the way.
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Marv, Sheraton Waikiki.
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