Franklin & Marshall shows movement toward Trump in PA in 3-way race. Biden ahead 11 in Washington State, a place where he won by 19 in 2020.
 | PENNSYLVANIA – Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research |
| Trump | 38 |
| Biden | 48 |
| Four Candidates: | |
| Trump | 40 (prior poll 37) |
| Biden | 42 |
| Kennedy | 9 (prior poll 7) |
| Stein | 3 |
 | WASHINGTON – Echelon Insights |
| Trump | 37 |
| Biden | 48 |
99 responses to “More polls: PA and WA”
First again
LikeLike
Before we devolve into fighting over semantics when basically everyone agrees on where the race is, what is best for the country, that RDS would have been a better President and that Trump is still the underdog, I wanted to post a Reagan quote that describes neither candidate.
“The greatest leader is not necessarily the one who does the greatest things. He is the one that gets the people to do the greatest things.”
LikeLike
Thanks for that Vic.
I did want to point out the policy for the HHR aggregator of polls. The methodology includes giving a smaller share to polls with a tiny sample. It is disrespectful to the hard and long work put in by other pollsters to skew the average by allowing some poll to jump in the average with a tiny sample. And so these kinds of polls get a smaller part of the average. I did this with the FAU polls that came out last month with tiny samples. I gave them the smallest amount of the share, even though many of them favored Trump.
This Franklin and Marshall poll was taken over 12 days, to get only 431 RVs, a relatively small sample given the new age in which polling is done, involving a mix of texting, online surveys, and direct phone calling. All of the other polls in the average took a much larger sample. That is why you see only a slight dip in the average shown above, despite the Biden 42, Trump 40 poll that was added to the average in PA. F&M’s prior poll of PA had it Biden 42, Trump 37, but given their small sample it really doesn’t mean much.
LikeLike
I am firmly opposed to anti-Semanticsism.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Is Demented “surging”? What do the free passers suggest?
Marv, I answered you at the previous thread. My walk to the pink palace is a few minutes.
LikeLike
I agree that Trump is the underdog. But not because of the polling.
LikeLike
But I also have very good reason to be skeptical of a Marist poll showing a D+7 turnout model.”
Like I said, let’s just go back to the time honored tradition of accepting polls good for Trump without question, and attacking those that aren’t.
But at least DW admits he is not just “looking at polls”, he is unskewing them.
And the goalposts changed, he now admits what the graph showed is true, the gap narrowed, but explains it away by claiming the reason is the “poll is wrong”.
And it may well be wrong. But you can make that argument without trying to deny the facts.
Some things never change.
LikeLike
Marxist has a drat plus 7
lol
LikeLike
That poll showing Biden ahead by 10 in PA HAS TO BE WRONG.
Dems with cats were oversampled. Rs with pets were undersampled.
LikeLike
maybe drat plus 1 or break even. Any job approval post tranny gate?
LikeLike
I know demented dipped post SOTU, which was very divisive and a big miss. Then the next day he had demented moments, and then the tranny implosion.
LikeLike
Ok, so can we all agree
LikeLike
DW, as I mentioned the other day, “skew the polls” was indeed warming up in the bullpen.
Personally, I enjoy your stuff on the quality of various polls, no matter who is favored by said analysis.
This is Trump’s third straight election on the ballot, and Joe’s second (after two more as VP). They’re well known; the race isn’t gonna move much. The media noise will affect the betting markets.
Vic, there is no center lane on HHR. You are required to pick a side and fight to the metaphorical death over it.
Chicon
LikeLike
Vic, I agree with all your points.
GFY.
LikeLiked by 1 person
jason, do you really believe the election this fall will be a turnout of D+7?
I am not unskewing anything. Had I attempted to unskew, I would have given ‘new’ Marist numbers. I did not. I just pointed out the fact that they admitted in the internals, that they expect an electorate this fall of D+7.
I disagree with them. Just like I would disagree with a pollster if they said they expect an R+7 electorate.
The gap in the chart changed from Trump +3.8 to +3.7. That is a change, not a trend. These numbers have bounced up and down ever since I started this. Not long ago, the PA number was around +2 for Trump. Wisconsin has also bounced up and down. So has Michigan and the others.
I laid out a specific methodology for the polling aggregator and have stuck to it relentlessly, even when it does not favor Trump.
I do not “unskew” polls.
I do not deny facts.
I do not move goalposts.
I do truly feel bad that jason has taken on this way. There doesn’t seem to be any purpose to it.
LikeLike
I also agree with Vic’s points.
LikeLike
Forgot to add
LikeLike
The MSM will try to promote the good ones, and bury the bad ones for Biden”
This is actually the most significant aspect.
Most people are not political “geeks” like us, they see the polls on the news media, and most of them unfortunately get their news from left wing MSM sites.
Donors also. Nobody wants to give money to a sure loser, and if you can manipulate the narrative to show hey, Trump can”t win, his donor base dries up.
So if Biden gains in the polls, for example, you can explain it away here as “oversampling”, “agenda polling”, whatever. But in the real world it will be amplified and deemed as Gospel.
But you won’t see that in the news that most people watch.
The coming media firestorm if Trump is still ahead or competitive by Labor Day is going to be really something. You ain’t seen nothing yet.
LikeLike
And if I were to get specific, I would point out from the data I see in the polls that Trump is holding up very well out west, with or without Kennedy in the mix. The southeast is where Trump seems to do better with Kennedy in the polling, as is the case in the mid-atlantic states including PA. But in the upper mid-west, here is where Trump seems to be hurt by the presence of Kennedy on the ballot, and this concerns me.
See jason, I can post things about being concerned with the numbers I see from the polling.
LikeLike
“The coming media firestorm if Trump is still ahead or competitive by Labor Day is going to be really something. You ain’t seen nothing yet.”
I agree completely. And this would be true if it was DeSantis, or Haley, or anybody.
LikeLike
The gap in the chart changed from Trump +3.8 to +3.7.”
Nah. You know better. You ARE denying facts.
On Jan 27 the gap was 4.7.
On March 6 the gap was 2.2.
This morning it was 0.6 when I first posted the graph. Now it is at 0.8 with a new poll, The last time it was 0.6 was like Nov 4.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
LikeLike
Another stunt that I know the pollsters have done is to shred polls they don’t like. Emerson admitted they did this. Back in January they polled the battlegrounds and found Trump way ahead. They hid that polling and did not release it. They got better numbers for Biden in February, and so they announced the movement toward Biden against the numbers they saw in January, and they showed those numbers.
Monmouth did a New Jersey poll. They released all sorts of pieces of it, but never the horserace numbers. They were always listed as held for future release. The future never came.
LikeLike
What is the difference between “disagreeing with a poll” and unskewing it.
By saying D +7 is wrong you are unskewing it. You are claiming Dems are oversampled.
No free lunch.
LikeLike
I was talking jason about the HHR polling aggregator numbers in PA, not the RCP average.
LikeLike
jason, there is a lot of difference between saying I disagree that the turnout will be D+7, and trying to reset their polling numbers to a D+1 turnout model, and then propose new topline numbers. People here and RRH elections did that in the past. That is what it looks like to unskew. I don’t do that.
LikeLike
I do truly feel bad that jason has taken on this way. There doesn’t seem to be any purpose to it.”
Zzzzzzzz…..
I commented on the FACT the gap had narrowed at RCP.
For that, you got all offended and called me a eeyore and compared me to RRH.
You should know me better by now, you want attack me go right ahead, but don’t whine when you get it right back.
LikeLike
I was talking jason about the HHR polling aggregator numbers in PA, not the RCP average”
You know I was referring to JeffP’s comment and RCP, I even posted the link.
LikeLike
I didn’t attack you jason. I pointed out that the numbers bounce up and down. That is true. They do move. But its not a trend. Its statistical noise.
LikeLike
And national polling not PA.
LikeLike
Jason, you would do well at RRH. You just summed up their eeyoring.”
I view that as an attack.
Sue me.
LikeLike
When you said this:
And the goalposts changed, he now admits what the graph showed is true, the gap narrowed, but explains it away by claiming the reason is the “poll is wrong”.
I mistakenly thought you were responding to my comment about the PA average further above in the thread. That was my mistake. Sorry about that.
LikeLike
jason, sorry about my RRH comment. I didn’t anticipate it be so offensive to you, and was meant lightheartedly.
LikeLike
Ok. We can move on.
LikeLike
I guess I will have to go to RRH to decide how offended I am….
LikeLike
Don’t take this the wrong way, but if you started posting at RRH you wouldn’t last 48 hours. I guess that’s a compliment.
LikeLike
Sorry DW, but your insult does not even make it to the top 50.
You will have to try harder.
Use “La Raza Pimp” as a reference.
LikeLike
Don’t take this the wrong way, but if you started posting at RRH you wouldn’t last 48 hours. I guess that’s a compliment.”
Ahhh.. so it WAS an insult…
LikeLike
Don’t know if this has been posted yet (I haven’t lurked during the past few days), but this potentially could be a game-changer: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4570808-nebraska-governor-calls-for-legislature-to-reinstate-winner-take-all-electoral-system/
If Nebraska stops awarding electoral votes by CD, then Biden won’t win any EVs from the state even if he carries the Omaha-based NE-02 (which is likely). Were that to happen, Trump winning in the same places as last time plus AZ, GA and NV would put him at 269 EVs, which, given that. come January 3, the GOP will control at least 26 state delegations in the U.S. House (even if the Democrats pick up the House) and the GOP will hold at least 51 U.S. Senate seats, will result in Trump and his running-mate being elected president and VP. Without the change in law, Trump would need to carry one of the three Rust Belt states that Biden took from him in 2020.
My only concern were Nebraska to change its law and go statewide-winner-takes-all is that Maine, which is controlled by Democrats, might make a tit-for-tat change and take away Trump’s ME-02 electoral vote. Were that to happen, we’d be back in a scenario in which Trump would be capped at 268 EVs unless he won back one of those three swing Rust Belt states (or pulled off a more surprising win, such as in NH, VA or NM).
LikeLike
Have we has any bovine predictions regarding the WV GOP primaries? Apart from the Justice-Mooney battle royale in the Senate race, there’s a J6 challenger to Congresswoman Miller in WV-01 and a multicandidate primary in the open WV-02.
LikeLike
Hi Meldrim…
Good to see you.
Yes this was discussed a few threads back, with differing opinions.
I don’t think Maine would follow Nebraska because it has a much bigger chance going red than Nebraska going blue, and I feel the “Mainers’ are an independent bunch not likely to follow NE.
But “Anonymous” thinks there aren’t enough votes to make the change even with the recently announced support by the Governor.
I think winner should get all EVs of a state.
LikeLike
Tina
Rumfire!
LikeLike
I agree with Vic’s points. I also agree with Jason’s GFY.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Line looks better now.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
LikeLike
Overnight development on Nebraska.
Republicans say screw you to Trump. No changes will be made.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4574070-nebraska-lawmakers-overwhelmingly-reject-trump-backed-winner-take-all-electoral-system/
LikeLike
Yep, back to +1.1.
LikeLike
and the one that matters with the misfits included is back to +2.3
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein
LikeLike
Trump could win in NE-02 anyway. Trump won it 48-46 in 2016 and it went R in 2022 in the congressional race albeit only by 3 points. It was also close for Congress in 2016 (R +1), 2018 (R+2, and 2020 (R+4). In 2020 Trump lost by 5.
LikeLike
I doubt the Trump campaign made any concerted effort in NE-2 in 2020. They won’t make that mistake again.
LikeLike
“Trump could win in NE-02 anyway.”
Exactly. Losing it by only 5 last time puts it directly in play this time. And as you say, they won’t overlook it this time because with the EVs reapportioned after the census, all Trump needs is to flip AZ, GA, and NV to get to 268. Winning NE_02 would do it to get to 269.
LikeLike
Democrats are indoctrinating themselves with the idea that it is ok to be robbed and you should feel “sad” for the robbers.
It is good policy for them since this is the world they want for themselves.
https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2024/04/04/not-getting-it-abc-news-reporter-hit-by-smash-and-grab-robbery-feels-sad-for-the-folks-that-do-this-n2172319
LikeLike
There was a story some weeks back from Canada where they were encouraging citizens to put their valuables right inside the door, so the crooks would grab them and run after breaking in, rather than having to search the house and get into a violent confrontation.
LikeLike
Add Idaho to the growing list of states where Kennedy has the signatures to qualify.
LikeLike
Here are the arguments that Dems give on why they are going to win. I would not dismiss them out of hand, and in fact I would use them as blueprint for a strategy to combat them. These are not mere talking points, I find some of the arguments quite persuasive. In my view Dems have 4 very strong advantages:
THAT is why Dems feel “quietly confident”
https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2024/04/04/democrat-strategist-on-presidential-race-we-are-quietly-confident-n3785918
LikeLike
Maybe Kennedy can beat Biden in Idaho.
McMullin came within less than 6 points to beating Hillary in UT in 2016.
LikeLike
Those are absolutely valid concerns for the GOP and Trump. Money is probably the third most concerning on the list. Hillary had so much money she could burn it for fuel. She lost.
“95% of the media is lock and step with the Dems.”
I disagree with this. It’s probably closer to 99%. But the point is taken. To combat this, Trump will need to take his message right to the people. He should surround himself with YOUNG people and show how he connects with them.
The flip side to some of this is every time a person opens the wallet to pay for food, the sticker shock is an ad against Biden and for Trump. People who are pulling from retirement saving to buy food won’t care what the media says.
The rogue prosecutions are a two-edged sword as they run the risk of validating what Trump has been saying that they are out to get him. This could play well for Trump in AA communities. Trump should go and campaign in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee. Tell how they are out to get him. Ask the AA community for their votes.
And then there is Biden himself. Trump is responsible to make himself attractive, but the flip side is Biden has consistently trailed Trump in the polls on personal favorability. He does stuff like cancel Easter and replace it with yet another alphabet soup celebration day.
At a certain point, people will have enough of this, regardless the defects of the GOP candidate.
Like I said earlier, I was for DeSantis because that would be doing the election the easy way, with the hope of 8 years of prosperity. But the vast majority of Republicans wanted to do the election the hard way, and only get 4 years out of it, if successful in winning.
LikeLike
Damm, there are pro-Israel Republicans that would be afraid to tweet this.
Senator John Fetterman
@SenFettermanPA
·
Follow
In this war against Hamas—no conditions for Israel.
LikeLike
At a certain point, people will have enough of this, regardless the defects of the GOP candidate.’
Let’s just hope it won’t be too late by then.
LikeLike
More context on the national matchup polling.
I want to look at the pollsters in these following categories, and see how many polls Trump led versus Biden led so far in 2024:
University polls:
Trump: 4
Biden: 7
Ties: 1
Media polls:
Trump 32
Biden: 9
Ties: 7
Democrat pollsters:
Trump: 2
Biden: 2
Ties: 1
Republican pollsters:
Trump: 7
Biden: 0
Ties: 0
Other/Independent:
Trump: 32
Biden: 2
Ties: 2
UK Pollsters:
Trump: 5
Biden: 0
Ties: 0
LikeLike
Perot beat Clinton in Utah (and Bush in Maine, FWIW) in 1992.
LikeLike
I have not seen the type of movement towards Trump in the suburbs that would make me think that he could carry NE-02 this year. Without the change in law, he will need to carry one of WI, MI or PA.
LikeLike
Jason, good to “see” you too. Now GFY. : )
LikeLike
jesouss, did you see my red-shift/blue-shift chart a few weeks back? It showed the movement, per state, between 2020 actual results, and 2024 polling.
I will post an updated version of this chart sometime soon.
There are still no states that have shifted even a little toward Biden. But right about in the middle of the chart are states like VA, AZ, and GA, that have shifted about 5 points toward Trump. That’s what Trump needs to flip NE_02.
LikeLike
The site lists 20 subscribers. Ok, you lurking bastards. Join the discussion.
LikeLiked by 1 person
”Rep. Victoria Spartz, the only Ukraine-born U.S. lawmaker, will not vote for the proposed $60 billion aid package to fuel Kiev’s war with Russia.
Spartz has expressed her desire for the Biden regime to offer a clearer strategy for its continued involvement in the war. She also wants the government to pay closer attention to how Ukraine will spend any aid it receives — and believes any aid that is sent should be in the form of a loan.”
Finally, some sensible thinking!
LikeLike
Zzzzz… it will pass anyway. Grandstanding ass.
LikeLike
No Labels, the centrist group which has sought to field a third-party presidential bid, is abandoning efforts to create a “unity ticket” aiming to win the White House, the organization announced Thursday.
“No Labels is ending our effort to put forth a Unity ticket in the 2024 presidential election,” Nancy Jacobson, No Labels’ founder and CEO, said in a statement. She said the organization had planned to offer its ballot line to a ticket only if it could identify candidates with a credible path to winning the White House.”
Despite the Lincoln Project turds saying this is a “positive” development, I actually think the opposite.
LikeLike
They raised $70 million. Spoke to 30 candidates. Couldn’t find anyone to run.
Even Fat F–k Christie, slimeball emeritus, turned them down.
LikeLike
to fuel Kiev’s war with Russia.”
Janzam is really Putin’s toady, geezus.
“Kiev’s war with Russia”, you really have to despicably dishonest to pretend Kiev is the one that started the war with Russia.
LikeLike
Kiev does not have a “war with Russia.” Ukraine was brutally invaded by Russia on Putin’s order.
LikeLike
I thought Biden was raised in a black church…
BIDEN: “The only reason I’m able to stand here is because of the Greek community. That’s not hyperbole!”
LikeLike
Kiev does not have a “war with Russia.” Ukraine was brutally invaded by Russia on Putin’s order.”
In the real world, yes.
In Janzam’s world of abject Putin adoration, Ukraine invaded Russia, bombed schools, residences and hospitals, displaced 10 million people, killed, raped, tortured, and exiled hundreds of thousands more.
But this Ukrainian aggression against peace loving Pooty Poot can be ended, if we can only stop aiding Ukraine murderous campaign against him.
LikeLike
“Have we has any bovine predictions regarding the WV GOP primaries? Apart from the Justice-Mooney battle royale in the Senate race, there’s a J6 challenger to Congresswoman Miller in WV-01 and a multicandidate primary in the open WV-02.”
Cash Cow has been in contact with groups of other cows in WV CD-2.
She “herd” that Miller should win so Cash Cow is putting all her butter money on incumbent Carol Miller.
That is the “Herd Word”.
LikeLike
Janzam “evolved” from “Zelensky’s war” to “KIev’s war”
I don’t know which is more revolting and disgusting.
LikeLike
They say they want to inspect the remains of the Key Bridge, but much of it remains underwater and submerged.
So..it remains to be seen.
LikeLike
I hope Cow is right this time.
I remember when he claimed Mooney was absolute toast and couldn’t possibly win.
That turned out to be, hmmm, BS.
LikeLike
Cash Cow says Mooney will be crushed by Governor Justice in the GOP race for a nominee for U.S. senate.
Justice will prevail.
LikeLike
Cow is only wrong when she is not right.
LikeLike
A little secret I will let you in on….
Cow’s only expertise in on the 3 most eastern WV counties.
She did hedge and say “anything cud happen.”
LikeLike
DW,
How could trump be at 38% in a two way with Biden, and jump to 40% in a 4 way when other Quixote candidates are considered?
Does not make sense.
LikeLike
We have had 20 posters on the lifeboat.
Meldrim, Chicon, Tina, Janzam, Albert, DW, jason, Bitter, NYC, Vic, Paul, Bunu, Amoral Scumbag, JeffP, Walt, GF…. I think the Biden Troll was here and a couple other Anonymous. SDC was here at the beginning.
LikeLike
Some salmon are really lucky. 100,000 baby salmon were in a tank truck in Oregon that overturned on a sharp turn. As luck would have it, about 80,000 of them landed in or close enough to a stream to survive. Although it was the wrong stream to be released in, they will “imprint” this stream and eventually return to be eaten by bears, fished, or if they are really lucky, spawn.
LikeLike
WHat IS the story on SDC?
LikeLike
I just saw a ref call traveling in an NBA game. That is almost as rare as a solar eclipse.
LikeLike
Switching back and forth from 76ers game and a show about King Tut’s tomb. There may be some mystery. Or not.
LikeLike
walt, I saw that, explained by the fact that the poll had a small sample. Odd that it took 12 days to get 430 too.
DW
LikeLike
The King Tut show is good, I have watched a lot of Lost Treasures of Egypt episodes.
LikeLike
but yes, this is the only poll I have seen where Trump went UP in his number when Kennedy was added
DW
LikeLike
I just saw a ref call traveling in an NBA game”
Had to be somebody off the bench. Would never be called on one of the Gods.
LikeLike
You have to admit Biden has to be the most religious President in History.
BIDEN: “One of the things that I learned early on was that I had a very close relationship with the Greek American community — for real! In the heart, and, I mean, real! In the church there, as well!”
LikeLike
Trans people on Reddit arguing over whether they should commit mass suicide or mass genocide to accomplish their political goals”
Hmmm….
LikeLike
So the mystery is why did King Tut get a small tomb? Maybe he was the original A-hole.
LikeLike
Suicide seems counter-productive.
LikeLike
It’s Kyiv.
Kiev is what Putin calls it.
Who is surprised jan calls it that also?
LikeLike
So the sneaky rat successor Pharoah might have stuck it to Tut and taken the tomb meant for Tut. Douche move
LikeLike
Tut was barely an adult when he died. Seem strange he would have already commissioned a large tomb like the one supposedly stolen from him.
But maybe not, the things too a long time to excavate and life expectancy was probably 35.
LikeLike
Bitterlaw
April 4, 2024 at 10:05 pm
Suicide seems counter-productive.”
I think it is preferable to mass genocide.
LikeLike
At 10:30 on CSpan-3, there is a lecture on Harriet Tubman. An armed black woman Republican leading a military raid? No wonder she only merits the third CSpan.
LikeLike
Speaking of the Eclipse, San Antonio Metro is the only place where both the eclipse in 2023 and the total eclipse of the sun were both at 100% totality. The path’s actually criss cross above the region
LikeLike
good morning?
LikeLike