According to North Star Opinion Research:
 | ARIZONA – North Star Opinion Research |
| Trump | 46 |
| Biden | 42 |
| Four Candidates: | |
| Trump | 37 |
| Biden | 33 |
| Kennedy | 18 |
| West | 2 |
- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
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Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
119 responses to “Trump has Edge in ARIZONA”
First
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First
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wow, Vic. Lol
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lol. It’s usually me whose typing first when someone else swoops in 😉
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Disclaimer: North Star Opinion Research has no apparent connection to former HHR poster, “Polaris”
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From that AZ poll:
57% of voters in Arizona say Joe Biden is not mentally capable of performing his duties as president for another four years.
Ouch. How many times in history has this even been a polling question?
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Here is another way to be able to have a peek inside Biden’s internal polling:
Headline: “More Liberals Are Calling for Justice Sotomayor to Retire”
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Yep. The left calling for Sotomayor to retire tells you all you need to know about what Biden’s internals are saying.
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I guess Tina does not hate Barrett and Kavanaugh today.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/03/stack-deck-so-trump-wins-leftists-melt-down/
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Call me old fashioned, but I like it that Supreme Court justices don’t always adhere to a political ideological road map. I prefer they are judicial conservatives.
Chicon
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Cannon is applying the law. I always said the PRA and the former president act would come into play.
Also, the espionage act (likely unconstitutional) does not apply to the president
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Anything a president takes and declares as his official record, is simply his official record. There is no provision in the law or second guessing.
Stoner can pout about it and consume more narcotics overnight.
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And stoner is stuck or phuqed with option 1 or option 2.
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Will Stoner also be able to prove that Trump personal packed up all boxes itself and knew wha was in them? If his staff a the GSA made errors, then it’s on them. This happens quite a lot actually.
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Tina is not opposed to hard-core political ideologues on SCOTUS. She just wants hard-core political ideologues from the Right on SCOTUS.
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Gas prices hit 5 months high.
Look for high inflation to go higher.
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Sshhhh Don’t tell Jason and Chicon. They won’t find the treasure on Oak Island tonight.
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OH Senate so far:
Matt Dolan 45.7%
Bernie Moreno 34.0%
Frank LaRose 20.3%
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And now Moreno in the lead.
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Bitter is a buzz kill. Tonight’s the night for treasure. Big treasure. Something like a horseshoe from the 1700’s. Anyone not watching will be sorry….
Chicon
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Sshhhh Don’t tell Jason and Chicon. They won’t find the treasure on Oak Island tonight.”
Huh, treasure is in the eye of the beholder.
Gary Drayton will find something to get excited about.
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Bernie Moreno 38.3%
Matt Dolan 37.3%
Frank LaRose 24.4%
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Gary is due for a bobby dazzler.
Chicon
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Bernie Moreno 43,552 38.2%
Matt Dolan 43,398 38.0%
Frank LaRose 27,127 23.8%
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LaRose is stronger than expected in parts of the state where Moreno needed to do well…bodes well for Dolan.
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Dolan 44962
Moreno 44852
Hard to tell what this means since we don’t know where it is coming from
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Bernie Moreno 43,728 – 38.2%
Matt Dolan 43,507 – 38.0%
Frank LaRose 27,169 – 23.8%
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Matt Dolan 48,161 38.5%
Bernie Moren 47,344 37.9%
Frank LaRose 29,577 23.6%
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Matt Dolan 48,161 – 38.5%
Bernie Moreno 47,344 – 37.9%
Frank LaRose 29,577 – 23.6%
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11.1% of the vote in, going to be an intersting night
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Southeast OH going to LaRose…that’s where Moreno needed to do well.
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Matt Dolan 49,436+38.58%
Bernie Moreno 48,470+37.82%
Frank LaRose 30,242+23.60%
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Bernie Moreno 54,721+38.52%
Matt Dolan 53,914+37.95%
Frank LaRose 33,418+23.53%
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Moreno making a comeback
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Bernie Moreno 60,659+38.64%
Matt Dolan 59,094+37.65%
Frank LaRose 37,213+23.71%
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Looks like it will be close….and the divisions will help Brown.
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btw if the constant updating is annoying, don’t worry, its just intermission in the Rangers – Winnipeg game 😉
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Bernie Moreno 63,342 38.6%
Matt Dolan 61,527 37.5%
Frank LaRose 39,024 23.8%
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Bernie Moreno 64,915+38.50%3
Matt Dolan 63,814+37.85%
Frank LaRose 39,865+23.65%
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Matt Dolan 75,678+38.97%
Bernie Moreno 74,464+38.35%
Frank LaRose 44,045+22.68%
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Matt Dolan 78,057 38.9%
Bernie Moreno 76,907 38.4%
Frank LaRose 45,574 22.7%
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Matt Dolan 79,757+38.74%
Bernie Moreno 79,054+38.39%
Frank LaRose 47,088+22.87%
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The bigger counties that are going for Dolan seem to be behind in the count.
Small red counties are going big for Moreno and there are a lot of them.
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Matt Dolan 80,897+38.61%
Bernie Moreno 80,838+38.58%
Frank LaRose 47,803+22.81%
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can it get any closer
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I count Dolan leading in 37 counties, Moreno in 28 and LaRose in 8
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Bernie Moreno 82,674+38.71%
Matt Dolan 82,324+38.54%
Frank LaRose 48,599+22.75%
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Bernie Moreno 85,569+38.65%
Matt Dolan 85,314+38.54%
Frank LaRose 50,505+22.81%
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More importantly…ITS A POWER PLAY GOAL….Rangers tie the game 1-1
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It shows Moreno is a weak candidate even Trump’s endorsement is enough to get him to 40%.
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Bernie Moreno 89,002+39.07%
Matt Dolan 87,133+38.25%
Frank LaRose 51,688+22.69%
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Dolan is still going to net another 10k votes in Cuyahoga.
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Nikki Haley getting 22% of the R vote.
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only 21% in
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Trump getting 72% of the R vote, Moreno getting 39%
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Bernie Moreno 93,107+39.5%
Matt Dolan 89,709+38.0%
Frank LaRose 53,153+22.5%
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uh oh….I hope there is more Dolan vote somewhere
Bernie Moreno 97,762+40.0%
Matt Dolan 91,933+37.6%
Frank LaRose 54,634+22.4%
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Moreno’s margin so far won’t overcome the big county vote Dolan is going to get. He needs to get ahead by about 25k to compensate for a Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton dump. A lot of his counties are ahead of the count.
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Bernie Moreno 100,887+40.4%
Matt Dolan 93,170+37.3%
Frank LaRose 55,397+22.2%
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Bernie Moreno 110,684+41.2%
Matt Dolan 98,758+36.8%
Frank LaRose 59,240+22.0%
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AP called it for Moreno
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Hamilton and Franklin are only 11% in.
That being said some of the counties that were early for Dolan have switched to Moreno.
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NYT just called it for Moreno
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If Moreno wins maybe Trump can win by a big enough margin to pull him over the line.
I have my doubts.
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Bernie Moreno 115,698+41.6%
Matt Dolan 101,359+36.4%
Frank LaRose 61,191+22.0%
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ugh – we should rename ourselves to the shoot in the foot party. Geez. WTF, how does this always happen. the “send a message” candidate who has no chance of winning the GE wins the primary to show us that unless there is 100% fidelity, we will lose you a winable seat. UGH
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I dont understand how they called it if Cleveland and Columbus are still only 22% and 9% in
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Well there are not a huge amount of R votes there. But the way I see it Dolan will net about 25k votes in those 3 counties.
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Now Trump will have to waste time going to OH to try and drag Moreno across the finish line.
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“the “send a message” candidate who has no chance of winning the GE
Vic, you don’t know what you’re talking about. You have been hanging out with Bitter and Jason for too long.
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Of course, NYT and AP are rooting for Moreno.
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Bernie Moreno 130,538+42.5%
Matt Dolan 110,665+36.0%
Frank LaRose 66,117+21.5%
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MG – I really don’t believe Moreno can get it done. Now, with that said, I though Vance might lose and he won…so who knows. But I don’t believe he was the best candidate for the state.
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Why do I waste my time in this echo chamber?
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Because MG, I am happy to be proven wrong. I will be very happy if Moreno wins…btw, and happy to admit I could be wrong.
Can you tell me why you like Moreno, thats a serious question, not a barb. I would like to hear more about him and why you think he could win
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sure we echo, we all echo the desire to win Senate control and we want the candidates that poll the BEST against the Dem, not the WORST.
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Moreno obviously got it done, and by a lot.
Bernie Moreno 139,090+43.1%
Matt Dolan 114,952+35.6%
Frank LaRose 68,439+21.2%
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F–k Ohio. Time for Oak Island.
Maybe Trump can drag the 2nd amendment hater across the finish line.
We will see.
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I don’t think anyone saw this size of a win for Moreno…and as a matter of fact, no one had Dolan up this much either.
Bernie Moreno 160,858+44.4%
Matt Dolan 127,246+35.1%
Frank LaRose 74,416+20.5%
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There’s a bigger spread between the top 2 Ohio senator candidates than expected. Apparently Moreno jumped something like 15 pts after Trump’s Saturday’s endorsement.
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BTw did anyone notice Biden lost three counties to Phillips
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Bernie Moreno 180,324+45.4%
Matt Dolan 137,495+34.6%
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Moreno at almost 50%. Never thought that would happen, and it looks like it all came from La Rose, because Dolan is where he was at in the polls, around 34-35%
Bernie Moreno 200,547+46.2%
Matt Dolan 148,454+34.2%
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President Trump bringing up the name change for the Cleveland Indians was the coup de grace in this.
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Its a bloodbath 😉 To be honest, I also never thought Trump could move the needle this much. This is a significant win, and maybe, just maybe Trump can get him over the hump and he can be the 51st Senator
Bernie Moreno 243,501+47.3%
Matt Dolan 173,413+33.7%
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The Guardians is sooooooo ridiculous
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Marv – My wife said she really liked Maui.
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Stay or go. No free lunch.
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Bitter,
Glad to see that Mrs Bitter enjoyed herself. Where did she stay and did she see any of Lahaina?
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Moreno now winning Columbus and Akron.
Bernie Moreno 265,595+47.8%
Matt Dolan 186,371+33.5%
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Moreno has 47% of the vote. That is a good number. A very close vote would exacerbated the divisions
Let’s see if Dolan and LaRose endorse him. They should
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Now that Ohio is gone, how do we get to 51 GOP Senators? Maybe PA.
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If I lived in Ohio I would have trouble voting for Moreno because of his stupid anti 2nd amendment position.
But I suppose in the end Brown is even more anti-gun so I guess I would hold my nose and vote for him.
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I am sending McCormick a check. I am impressed on the amount of emails he sends me and letters.
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I have to say Im impressed by the margin of victory, and Jason, you may be right, it might be large enough to squelch the divisions and unite the party.
Brown is a horrible Senator, but he doesn’t come close to representing the constituency in Ohio, maybe Cleveland, and that’s about it.
Bernie Moreno 307,351+48.6%
Matt Dolan 209,916+33.2%
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Results here
https://www.realclearpolitics.com
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inching towards 50%
Bernie Moreno 371,613+49.4%
Matt Dolan 247,702+32.9%
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Getting 50% against 2 solid candidates like Dolan and LaRose is impressive.
I take back my comment about him not being able to get 40%.
I also see he came close to Moreno in Cuyahoga and Hamilton and even won Franklin, which shows he didn’t get skunked in the more moderate suburban vote.
If Trump wins by 10 I think he has a chance.
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They found silver on Oak Island.
Yes, it is only 2 inches long and probably the tip walking stick or something, but treasure is treasure.
GFYs.
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I was looking at Biden’s vote in OH.
He is doing poorly in rural areas against a guy who quit and endorsed him.
Harrison Co.
Biden 396. 69%
Dean Phillips 177 31%
Some of these people might vote for Trump.
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The Golden Calf got 30,000 votes in OH.
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Dolan is now down to winning only two counties, one of them cleveland area and that may change as well. I agree that he may have a chance after this size of victory. Could be MG was right.
Bernie Moreno 454,554+49.7%
Matt Dolan 301,105+33.0%
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If Moreno avoids an Akin moment, he’ll win. Not many people who vote for Trump will split their vote. This election is too charged for that.
Chicon
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America 2024
“A transgender migrant was kiIed in broad daylight by a man shouting homophobic insults…. The suspect is an illegal immigrant from Venezuela linked to a drug cartel. But it gets worse: The DA is DECLINING to charge him. But it gets even worse than that: 2 days prior, he was charged with multiple felonies, including illegally having a gun. But that’s not all. It gets even worse. On March 3, the suspect was arrested yet AGAIN. This time, he drove without any license….. Guess what? HE WAS RELEASED AGAIN.”
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50% and now dolan down to winning only one county, and that has less than 1,000 votes. Pretty Impressive
Bernie Moreno 483,568+50.0%
Matt Dolan 317,398+32.8%
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If Moreno avoids an Akin moment, he’ll win. Not many people who vote for Trump will split their vote. This election is too charged for that.
Chicon”
I think Trump has to win by at least 10 for Moreno to win.
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That’s insane Jason. and sadly, believable in the Biden and the Far Left Republic
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Trump beat Biden by 8% in 2020, and I believe he will increase those margins in the state, which may carry Moreno over the line.
Heck, if Vance can win there, anyone has a chance.
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Seems like maybe all that early vote for Dolan was early vote and urban vote. At one point he was winning 38 counties.
Seems like Trump’s rally had a big impact.
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I hope Moreno is a better candidate than Vance. Vance beat Ryan but Brown is a stronger candidate than Ryan.
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Damm, great polling there Emerson…
ttps://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2024-poll-dolan-26-moreno-23-larose-16-32-undecided-in-gop-primary/
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https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2024-poll-dolan-26-moreno-23-larose-16-32-undecided-in-gop-primary/
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Geez, its like 30% of the undecided broke for moreno
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Bernie Moreno 540,555+50.4%
Matt Dolan 351,709+32.8%
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So its actually Moreno picked up 27% of the undecided vote and Dolan 6%
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One broadcast talked about an exit poll in Ohio where 70% said they wanted to vote for an “American First” candidate. That seemed too high of a figure. However, it also seems like a miracle Moreno captured so much of the vote after such weak polling before the primary.
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A link to support that 70% figure:
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/03/19/exit-poll-70-percent-of-ohio-republican-primary-voters-say-important-ohios-next-senator-supports-donald-trump/
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Bernie Moreno 552,964+50.5%
Matt Dolan 359,867+32.9%
Frank LaRose 182,307+16.6%
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