This one from Cygnal:
 | NORTH CAROLINA – Cygnal |
| Trump | 45 |
| Biden | 40 |
| North Carolina Governor: | |
| Robinson | 44 |
| Stein | 39 |
- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
- Weekend thread……
- Merry Christmas!
- Christmas Eve
- Eve of Christmas Eve
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
69 responses to “Another new North Carolina poll”
First!
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Jason is this GOV poll more likeable?
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Mass migration from Haiti to the US is expected soon, as people try to escape the violence there.
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DW, intriguing that the POTUS top line is identical, but the GOV numbers not merely inverted, but rather a significant margin for Robinson.
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So we are plus 5 for president in both poles?
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With the hot cpi #,
Food prices up 21% since demented took power, while prices for goods are up 19%.
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+5 is doable in NC this cycle I believe. I do not see NC as the swing state it has been the past few years. Its trending more Florida than it is GA.
Interesting thought. How likely is it that even if VA is extremely close…Biden wins by less than 4%, it gets called right away, whereas NC, which might be the same margin for Trump, gets called after midnight.
And…does that happen to influence the vote in AZ and NV
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Mark Robinson today painted a positive NC timeline since having a Republican legislature in place – from being a dem dominated state with a poor economy to now posting a surplus and being business friendly comparing it to the state of Florida. His prediction is that NC is headed to being a solid red state.
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Vic, that could make a marginal difference, and a big difference in a tight race. It highlights the importance of using strong GOTV systems that emphasize early voting (some here hate early voting – me too, but it’s here). Bank every soft vote possible early so weather, news or general life doesn’t depress your vote.
Chicon
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Lots of news today — the Robt. Hur congressional testimony and a report from the House examining the J6 event in a more even-handed, factual manner,
https://cha.house.gov/_cache/files/d/9/d96ba6ce-03fb-4fc8-a4a7-5b5daf19d064/4F510144C1F427873D3298D955C8E19F.initial-findings-report.pdf
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Vic, I don’t recall 2020, but VA wasn’t called until at least 2300 EST in 2016, and HRC ended up winning by about 5 points. As long as DJT avoids a ten point beating like he endured last time, it shouldn’t be called until CA closes.
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This poll is better for Robinson. I still have reservations about him as a candidate and I still hope he wins.
Does the poll say what his AA support is? Curious to see if he attracts any of the black vote. Tim Scott only gets about 10% in SC.
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“Does the poll say what his AA support is?”
They only polled 600 LV, so any demographic subset can’t have a statistically significant outcome.
Chicon
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(some here hate early voting – me too, but it’s here).”
EV is not going to save Rs.
Rs can cannibalize their vote any way they want, its not going to make any difference if the Dems are illegally voting or counting illegal votes.
I think every R in America should vote on ED and thus minimize the chance that their vote will not count.
In my view GOTV money spent on rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic is wasted and counterproductive.
I have already written many posts on why I think the “if we can’t beat them we should join them theory” is on EV and VBM is political suicide for Rs.
The problem is not the R vote. It is the election process in many Dem dominated counties that allow the Dems to game EV and VBM as well as ballot harvesting.
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If VA is close it cannot be called early.
That is because for some reason the NOVA/urban vote is slower to come in so Rs usually start out in the lead even if it is not going to hold up later.
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“Does the poll say what his AA support is?”
They only polled 600 LV, so any demographic subset can’t have a statistically significant outcome.
Chicon”
Well, the black subset here is pretty large, 22%.
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Jason, lots of people plan to vote on election day and don’t. Getting the vote in prior to election day increases the vote. Evolve or die.
Chicon
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I have been opposed to Early Voting since my first vote in 1986. IF there are lazy slacker Republicans mf-ers who may vote by mail but won’t show up on Election Day, there is no reason to not get them to VBM. Again, they should show up.
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22% of 600 is roughly 132 AA voters sampled, far too small to trust the result (can’t do the math ATM, but it’s got to be a low double digit MOE).
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From the congressional report:
. Loudermilk discovered that the J6 Select Committee hid exonerating evidence of President Trump’s push for the National Guard at the US Capitol on January 6. Trump’s requests were rejected by Nancy Pelosi, DC Mayor Bowser, and the Capitol Police.
Rep. Loudermilk also discovered that President Trump’s motorcade driver blew up J6 “super star witness” Cassidy Hutchinson who lied through her teeth about Trump grabbing the steering wheel of The Beast and assaulting a Secret Service agent. Her entire story was completely false, yet the mainstream media has never, ever corrected their reporting on this disgusting lie.
And in the report, there is evidence that Fulton County Georgia Fani Willis met with the illicit committee, and she participated in numerous calls with the sham committee. The J6 Committee even shared video recordings with Fani’s office but deleted the recordings to prevent Republican lawmakers from gaining access to it.
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The RNC, under the recent changes in leadership, seem to be revamping the entire organization – firing 60 staffers this week alone. The new emphasis seems to be on reviving donor trust that their money will be prudently spent, and availing themselves of the tactics Dems have used – early voting, ballot harvesting, having an accurate data base distributed to grassroots to better target R voters, and better communication with volunteers and the grassroots.
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Source: Initial Finding Report (p. 49-50)
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There is also a more energetic registration drive going on with grassroots volunteers, along with efforts to activate inactive voters. This is especially being led by evangelical leaders like Ralph Reed.
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Tina, Laudermilk’s report exposes how manipulated and distorted the J6 event really was. Nonetheless, if people don’t read it and the MSM ignores it, the J6 myth will continue to rule the minds of the public.
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”Last November RINO Rep. Buck from Colorado’s 4th congressionaldistrict said he would not seek reelection in 2024.
On Tuesday, Ken Buck, in a surprise announcement said he is retiring from Congress at the end of next week.”
Apparently Speaker Johnson was shocked by this announcement as it will leave the house majority almost with a minority number. I wonder if that was Buck’s intention.
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it’s quite conceivable that Buck is leaving early so that the local GOP can nominate someone other than Boebert for the implied special election, giving that candidate and advantage for the GE nomination against the carpetbagger.
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I wish Buck were to stay for now.
We seem to lose specials.
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CO4 is safe, even with a moron like Boebert. It’s not trending away like the 5th district.
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Biden Says He’s “Counting On The Border Action Happening By Itself”
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Tucker Carlson
@TuckerCarlson
In a classified briefing this afternoon, attended by officials from the Biden Justice Department, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claimed that Elon committed “election interference” in 2022 by “changing the algorithms” on X to alter the results of the midterms that year. Not coincidentally, the anti-TikTok legislation now being debated on the Hill would allow the federal government to force the sale of any social media platform that interferes in elections. Just so you know what’s coming in 2025.
·
1.2M Views
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Can Governor Polis, a democrat, nominate someone to replace Buck now?
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Ralph Reed? A blast from the past.
Not being critical. It just seems like he reappears every 4 years.
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Thanks for asking.
Cash Cow and I did 30 more feet of fence power washing in an hour and a half this morning before my luncheon.
We did 42 more feet of power washing in 2 hours after I got back from the luncheon.
My suggestion is that you should never have a wooden fence around the bulk of your property., unless you are young and stupid, or rich.
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The pollster “SurveyMonkey” is back…
Biden Job Approval
Feb. 23-March 4
19,743 A
Approve 37%
Disapprove 60%
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A discharge petition is being signed by some republicans which will make the Ukraine zealots very happy, as it probably means that $60 billion will be on it’s way to Ukraine.
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We need $120 Billion to the Ukraine,
-Biden’s Beotch
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Walt, consider skipping the washing step. I proceed to stain the deck in Wisconsin without the wash. Lasts ten years.
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Bitter, I’m curious…what is the “rubber, glue defense?”
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Should be $100 billion but good for now.
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But Walt is immortal. 10 years is nothing.
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I remember that if you called a child a name, they would respond in an exchange like this:
“You’re stupid.”
“I’m rubber. You’re glue. What you say bounces off me and sticks to you.”
Another variation is:
“You’re stupid.”
“I know you are. What am I?”
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Governors have nothing to do with Congressional races, Hochul found that out the hard way.
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Ukraine zealots”
Translation:
Anyone who is not a Putin Stooge and an enabler of Russian war crimes
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I vote for $120 billion since the Putin brigade is making it so difficult to do the right thing.
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Aaron Rogers in talks to be RFK Jr’s VP.
Not good, probably would cost Trump some votes.
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$120,000,000,001
Suck it.
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“it probably means that $60 billion will be on it’s way to Ukraine.”
Somebody do a welfare check on Putin, Janzam and Tina.
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Bitter always trying to up the ante.
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I would ask for points for “Ukraine Zealot” but I would have to share them with Bitter.
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I won’t miss either Buck or Boebert, truth be known.
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Did Bore (hur) identify how a then non demented senator stole classified documents from a scif, kept them for $, and blurted out the contents to a ghost writer, and not be charged for espionage?
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LOL
“Either way, last Thursday’s address wasn’t the reset the White House was hoping it would be. Just 17% of Americans who watched the State of the Union or followed news about it say Biden seemed “not as old” as they expected — while 51% say he seemed “about the same” as they expected and 24% say he seemed “older” than they expected.”
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Thanks for the explanation, Bitter. That phrase was new to me.
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Thomas Massie
@RepThomasMassie
The so-called TikTok ban is a trojan horse. The President will be given the power to ban WEB SITES, not just Apps. The person breaking the new law is deemed to be the U.S. (or offshore) INTERNET HOSTING SERVICE or App Store, not the “foreign adversary.” https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20240311/HR%207521%20Updated.pdf
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“An anti-Trump Republican group is planning to spend $50 million in a campaign to stop the former president from winning a second term in the White House.
Republican Voters Against Trump plans to share testimonial videos of Trump’s past backers who will share why they won’t be supporting the former president come November.
The campaign is orchestrated by Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist who has long been critical of Trump. The plan is to target “moderate Republican” and Republican-leaning voters in swing states with videos. The group had a similar strategy in 2020, when they shared more than 1,000 testimonials during an election that President Biden won.
The ads featuring the former Trump voter testimonials will be deployed on TV, streaming platforms, billboards, radio and digital media. They will run in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Longwell believes the anti-Trump coalition built up in 2020 was one of the determining factors in that contest, and that expanding the demographic in 2024 could be a determining factor in whether Trump returns to the White House.
“Former Republicans and Republican-leaning voters hold the key to 2024, and reaching them with credible, relatable messengers is essential to re-creating the anti-Trump coalition that made the difference in 2020,” Longwell, the president of the group’s Republican Accountability PAC, said in a Tuesday statement.
“It establishes a permission structure that says that — whatever their complaints about Joe Biden — Donald Trump is too dangerous and too unhinged to ever be president again. Who better to make this case than the voters who used to support him?”
TDS is a sad sick disease.
“Whatever complaints about Joe Biden”
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Unbelievable such a coalition of “Dummies for Biden” exists!
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Zzzzzzzz. So run ads of former Biden voters supporting Trump. Problem solved.
Sucks that I am going to see all these ads.
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Jason, in your opinion, what causes TDS among alleged Republicans?
Note to Bitter….at least your white hot hate for Trump has not gone to this extent.
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Oak Island is on. This is the week, my friends….
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Maybe they will find THE broken bottle that breaks the case wide open.
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I wish Trump had stayed a Democrat. Giving my vote to that amoral scumbag was necessary but I did not like it.
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Chicon and Jason both watch Oak Island?
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Why? You, Tina, and Jason would not vote for Haley if she was the nominee against Biden. People have limits.
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All the cool kids tune in.
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So many ripple effects from not being hired as the permanent Jeopardy! host.
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I think next week they will find a piece of silver. It won’t pay for Rich Lagina’s lunch but it has to be significant.
Plus someone will say that the Ark of the Covenant should be there.
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Jason, in your opinion, what causes TDS among alleged Republicans?”
The “conservative” pundits like Kristol, Rubin, etc. could not deal with the loss of influence. Once Trump got elected no one cared what they say anymore.
A lot of the TDS morons just couldn’t deal with being that wrong about Trump, first that he couldn’t be elected and second that he turned out to be a pretty good President.
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Study: Transgender surgery doubles risk of suicide
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/03/12/study-transgender-castration-doubles-risk-suicide-attempts/
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It could also be that whatever underlying issue led to suicide, also resulted in the transgenderism.
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