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Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
22 responses to “Until there are polls…”
First
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Presidential election winner 2024
Trump 54%
Biden 34%
https://polymarket.com/
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Damm, I should put $100k on Biden.
If he wins I will have money to pay the new taxes.
If he loses I will be broke but happy.
Win-win
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I cannot find anything definitive about this supposed new poll of Florida from Baris. So there are no polls this morning.
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I could not find anything more either in that Baris pole. +15 or +16 appears too high for Florida. I can see demented losing by 6-8., however.
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The meds wore off….
Biden in PA yesterday.
“Pennsylvania, I have a message for you: send me to Congress!”
and
“The U.S. Capitol — the same building where our freedoms came under assault on July the 6th!”
and
Biden says almost every world leader has grabbed his arm, pulled him aside, and said “you can’t win again”
and
“We added more to the national debt than any president in his term in all of history”
This is all in the same speech.
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Several other polls, though a little dated now, have had Trump up 9 or 10 points in Florida. 15 might be a little stretch, but not outrageously so.
My problem with Baris has always been that he has no ability to just release a poll with topline numbers and make it clear. He just tweets and hints about the data, and even when he does release a poll, he fills out a huge paragraph with if this, then that, but exclude this and you get that, but in this region its like this…just shut up and give us the topline numbers for goodness sake.
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The drawback of Pennsylvania being a swing state in 2024 is that Biden and Trump are going to be coming here again and again.
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Fortunately, after six straight elections where the Democrats kicked the snot out of the Republicans in PA, the state became a battleground again in 2016.
Ohio went from battleground to red.
Michigan went from blue to battleground.
Wisconsin voted for the Democrat in every election from 1988 until 2016, and is now a major battleground.
Iowa went from battleground to red.
Yet I keep reading that Trump is unable to grow the tent.
I love this place.
Chicon
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“Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem.”
That quote by Reagan went a long way toward attracting the Reagan Democrats in the Rust Belt. The next Republican who said anything remotely similar was Trump.
Chicon
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Looks like Ohio, Iowa and Florida are no longer battlegrounds.
The poles suggest a high angle to lower/mid double digit lead.
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Single*
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Bitter. Your Fall is going to be non stop ads everywhere. You will be inundated.
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Zzzzz.. what a crock.
Everyone here has given credit to Trump for bringing in a lot of blue collar/working class voters and flipping that vote from Obama to red in hundreds of counties in battleground states.
If is not the unanimous opinion here that only Trump could have done that in 2016 but it is certainly mine.
However, it is also true that R have lost a lot of the suburban vote especially in larger metropolitan areas. Fraud or no fraud, if the Dems had lost even a small amount of these suburban voters Trump would have won AZ, GA, WI, MI, PA and NV for an easy EC win.
In my view, blaming Trump for the loss of the suburban vote is simplistic. While that view is popular here, I think it has more to do with the influx of indoctrinated left wing voters that are a product of the far left academia from which they hail. But it doesn’t matter really why, it is a fact.
So yes, Trump has a huge problem growing the tent. Trump HAS made those states competitive, but even so he won 2016 by a measlye 75,000 votes if you add his margins in PA, MI and WI, and then he lost in 2020 by about 42,000 votes in AZ, WI and GA. Not to mention he lost the popular vote by 3.5 million votes in 2016 and by 7 million votes in 2020. Was it fraudulent? Yes. But little has changed, of the battleground states GA is really the only one that made significant changes to its election process.
In 2024, unless he can grow the tent further and make some inroads into the suburban/independent vote and win outside the MOF, he is likely going to lose again.
So far, his rhetoric does not show that he comprehends this. Not surprising.
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I know. I would prefer that PA was solid Red so I could ignore both Trump and Biden. But I will have to endure endless ads.
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The problem with that is that Trump is no Ronald Reagan.
Reagan actually believed government was the problem, Trump is a crony capitalist that believes exactly the opposite.
Trump is a creature of the swamp. That is why few outside of the hardcore supporters believe he has any intention of draining it.
If Rs actually wanted someone to drain the swamp they should have nominated the Golden Calf.
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The poles suggest a high angle to lower/mid double digit lead”
Is Poland interfering with our elections again?
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So with Biden in a must win situation with Michigan, and
with Biden angering the Muslim community in Michigan
It now seems that Muslims in Michigan are now running Biden’s foreign policy as it relates to Israel.
Scary.
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DW – Those Muslim Democrats know that Trump is very supportive of Israel. They will show up for Biden, even if reluctantly, in November.
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But what about the auto workers? They lose their jobs.
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New Thread
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