 | ALASKA – Data for Progress |
| Trump | 53 |
| Biden | 41 |
- Last week of the year. Will the scandals in Minnesota be investigated?
- Weekend thread……
- Merry Christmas!
- Christmas Eve
- Eve of Christmas Eve
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.0 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.8 / 51.0 | -5.2 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
99 responses to “Trump leads in ALASKA”
First
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oh come on. Lol
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Sorry Vic, had to be done. Lol. I will say this, that was the worst SOTU speech I didn’t watch.
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Tina, I suspect the handlers wanted to throw some red meat to the base. Their base tends to be dark, so…..
People here correctly point out that Trump needs to expand the tent to get moderates and independent voters. At some point Joe needs to do that. Time will tell if “dark” does the trick.
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I didn’t watch it either but it was miserable, awful and demonstrated…well…something. It had to, right, and even though I didn’t watch it, I’m an expert on it and i say it was bad.
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The SOTU speech sucked.
No, I didn’t watch. I never watched any of Fidel Castro’s 8 hours speeches either and they sucked too.
How did Katie Britt do?
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Well, the tone and content of the SOTU speech made one thing quite obvious. Biden is definitely not dropping out. It will be Trump vs Biden. That’s now settled.
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Vic – I watched all of it. I don’t think anybody switched their vote because of it. It was aimed at proving that Biden is alive.
One takeaway – Dems are pushing ABoRTION hard again. One of the guests identified by Biden was the Texas woman who went to another state for an abortion because the baby had terrible deformities and would not live. She is pregnant again. I do not oppose abortions in her sad circumstances but I think it is odd she wants the attention. “Look at me! They carved up my unborn child!” I hope this pregnancy leads to a healthy child.
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Katy Britt gave a solid speech. I figured she’d do well and she did.
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Didn’t watch Katy Britt speech either, but according to the left she gave her speech from her kitchen which made them really angry. Saying that is what Republicans want. Women in the kitchen barefoot and pregnant. Lol
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“Biden is definitely not dropping out. It will be Trump vs Biden. That’s now settled.”
I wouldn’t draw that conclusion at all. The replacement, if one is forthcoming, would not happen now anyway, or else it would create a rush of new candidates jumping into the race to grab remaining delegates. Dems don’t trust their voters to pick a candidate.
So if a replacement is forthcoming, it will be at the convention, which gives Dems more time to assess if there is any way Biden can defeat Trump. If the answer is No, then they pull the plug on him at the convention. He comes out and says, “my health has turned for the worse, and I just cannot do it. And behind door number 1, here comes the candidate who will get all my delegates…”
And the candidate who comes out will be a dark horse who has been crafted around the desires of the focus groups from all the key battleground states.
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Phil, don’t get me wrong, I hope you are right. But I have never seen Democrats just roll over and say, “Aw, shucks, we aren’t going to win this one, so we will try harder next time.”
They have done this before, just replace an unelectable candidate right at the end to save the seat. They stop at nothing.
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She gave a solid speech and a sharp contrast to the dark, bitter, and Andy speech given by Demented. No place for partisan speeches at the SOTU,
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Angry speech*
Above all, how can you refer o the dead victim of dementeds open borders agenda by the wrong name? You know the nurse probably hit him a few times last night.
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DW, two comments…
1. Quite a few Republicans don’t trust their voters to choose candidates either.
2. Once Joe has enough delegates, he’s only leaving if he and Jill want to. Unless they go the 25th Amendment route or he decides to leave, they’re stuck.
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or…
Obama gets on the phone the day before the Dem convention and tells Joe, “I need a new puppet, so you get out of this race right now or I will unleash all the dirt I have on you which will force you out.”
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The Democratic base is split. Biden’s coalition is composed of the liberal white intelligentsia (including Jews) + minorities (especially those government dependent) + diverse single cause advocacy groups (abortion rights, environmentalists, LGBTQ+, etc.) + college students/young voters enamored with socialism
The issues of age/senility, immigration, prices and inflation, Middle East, etc. are preventing this coalition from coalescing into solid support for Biden, mainly because he cannot appease/pander to all of them at the same time.
So his angry tirade was probably aimed at shoring up his base. Later he will try to unite everyone in hatred for Trump.
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Having to do a base speech at the Sotu suggests that his base is fractured.
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It will be Trump vs Biden. That’s now settled.”
That has always been my view.
The Dems have no bench, no knight on a white horse so to speak. Possibly Michelle Obama was the only one to fit that role, and she is out.
They don’t have anyone more popular than Biden.
DW says someone will rise at the convention.
But who?
Biden is the Dems best shot and they know it.
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Because angry and unhinged have bad connotations, the MSM has settled on a word for Biden’s speech.
“Fiery”
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/february-jobs-soar-275k-smashing-estimates-january-revised-shaprly-lower-and-unemployment
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I took a look at Predictit to see if the speech had any impact on the odds. Very little.
Trump (+1) 48
Biden (-1) 43
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jason asks WHO, a very valid question. And I agree that the Dem bench is slim. But the point of a dark horse is that its someone unknown–2% of the population or less has even heard of the person.
But then the candidate is molded into what the focus groups from the battleground states say they want.
Then they spend money like crazy and see what happens. They could then say we are done with old re-tread candidates, here is a fresh face for everyone.
Here is a partial list of Dem senators they could draw from:
Ben Ray Luján
Mark Kelly
John Hickenlooper
Michael Bennet
Gary Peters
Amy Klobuchar
Jean Shaheen
Maggie Hassan
Cory Booker
Martin Heinrich
Jeff Merkley
Ron Wyden
Mark Warner
Patty Murray
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Nice list but every one of those has serious negatives. None of them have national stature.
Klobuchar is the best of the bunch since she already ran previously. But she has very little appeal outside the liberal intelligentsia, can you see her campaigning in Georgia?
Sorry, I don’t see anyone on that list that can run better than Biden against Trump.
Unless he keels over, the Dems are stuck with Biden, there is no plan B.
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https://www.aol.com/5-people-killed-gaza-aid-125733780.html
(killed as a result of parachutes not deploying during U.S. aid drop.)
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I agree with DW that if you could run a generic DarK Horse he/she might perform better than Biden. The problem is you have to give Dark Horse a name. Once you do that, the “dark horse magic” is gone.
Name him Corey Booker and all of sudden its geezus this guy is dumber than a rock. Name him Ron Wyden and its geezus that is one ugly m-fer. And so on.
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Damm, Biden is committing genocide in Gaza?
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DRUDGE headline
“Lying on the Floor Good for Health?“
So THAT is why people in congress live to be such a ripe old age!
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Good one, Walt
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The SOTU address did nothing more than inflame and divide the R and D bases more. It was far afield from being unifying or conciliatory. Instead it threw aspersions and mud at over half the country, while calling to battle the leftist portion to run wild and support his unsustainable agenda.
I did listen to the entire speech, texting to our son afterwards that it was a waste of time. Katie Britt’s follow up response was motherly, with concern embossed in her voice for the country. However, I’m not sure it was the one needed to adequately emphasize the inappropriateness of Biden’s vision, leadership, and policies. I definitely don’t think she has the experience or mojo to take on the VP slot.
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Wait, Katie Britt named her son “Ridgeway”?
Taking her off my VP list, something wrong with her.
Anyone who names their child something that sounds like a housing development can’t be VP.
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Wait, Janzam doesn’t think Britt should be VP?
Damm, that is one hell of an endorsement in my view.
I am putting her back on my VP list.
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Also, IMO, there is no standout dem in DW’s list of presidential substitutes for Biden. I could actually see HRC or Newsom having more possibilities than any of those dem politicians.
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I agree there is no standout in the list. That’s the point of a dark horse. They craft the candidate into a champion of all the issues that come out of the focus groups of the battleground states, and they spend like crazy and present the dark horse as a fresh face instead of Trump.
Don’t get me wrong, I HOPE you all are right and they stick with Biden. But it would be a first if the Dems in power just shrug their shoulders and say, “Aw shucks, we will try harder next time.”
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I did listen to the entire speech”
Janzam might be a Putin sycophant and a war crimes enabler and the mother of all deadenders, but I give credit where it is due.
Anyone with the stomach to listen to an entire Biden speech shows incredible intestinal fortitude. She can probably down alligator sushi with curried mountain goat testicles and think nothing of it.
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But it would be a first if the Dems in power just shrug their shoulders and say, “Aw shucks, we will try harder next time.”
That assumes they think Biden will lose.
I think that is a wrong assumption.
I think they assume the MSM, the DOJ, and hundred of millions in ads demonizing Trump will pull him across the finish line.
They don’t think running Biden is a losing proposition.
Let’s face it. With Biden’s personal issues and the situation of the country and his approval numbers, he should be losing by at least 10 points even against a Trump.
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“They don’t think running Biden is a losing proposition.”
Today. I believe they are gravely concerned and are watching the polling very carefully. They can easily steal a close election. If they see it slipping away, where GA, AZ, and NV are safe for Trump (and right now all three are outside the margin of error) and CO and VA become tossups, that is probably too big a lift to steal. So they will have to act.
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present the dark horse as a fresh face instead of Trump.”
Patty Murray was a “fresh face” 30 years ago.
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I think your scenario has less than 10% of happening.
I can’t think of the last time any party was able to manufacture an instant presidential candidate. That is why I was skeptical of Mooch Obama, she isn’t prepared.
The convention would be way too late for that. None of the people you mention are prepared to step into that role of presidential candidate.
The people that are, like Kamala and Newsome, are bad candidates.
All the dark horses are gimpy horses.
Btw, you left Mayor Butt out?
Are you homophobic?
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The Dems have a couple of names that could be viable.
Shapiro and Cooper.
But Shapiro is “too Jewish” for the times, and Cooper is too “moderate” for the times. Neither appeals to the Dem base.
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Jason – The Dem base has one issue. Defeating Trump. They will vote for Biden regardless of VP.
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For the MSM, the latest Biden speech is always the best in his entire life.
John P. Flannery
@JonFlan
Biden gave the best speech of his entire life – and when the nation needed his force and energy.
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“The Dem base has one issue. Defeating Trump”
Sad but true.
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One radio guy this morning gave a quick summary of last night’s speech.
The democrats thought it was the best speech ever!
The republicans thought it was the worst speech ever!
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I just watched Biden’s speech for the third time. Got goosebumps all over even the third time. I nominate it for best speech since Lincoln’s Gettysburg address. Here in Bogo Pogo everyone is talking about it. I am organizing a Biden rally and a voter registration drive here, I plan to send a barrel of Bogo Pogo votes to a swing state, whichever looks closer near the election.
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To be fair, at this point every Biden speech could be his last.
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Classic
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😂😂😂
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Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” G. MICHAEL HOPF
Interesting words……
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Excellent.
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I have enjoyed the debate over whether or not Biden will be replaced. Jason could be absolutely right, and I could be wrong. One weakness in your argument is that you still presume Dems will play by the rules and historical norms. I know its hard to do, but you have to think like a criminal with a lifetime of corruption. If you can think that way, then you can understand the Democrat mind and be open to what they might pull off at the last minute.
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DW, I think your mindset of thinking like a criminal is spot on, as that’s exactly how the Dems act, under the rationalization they have the high and moral ground to do so. Also, they are in for the long game, like the Chinese. If one ploy doesn’t fly they don’t quit, but simply go on to plan B thru Z
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Hakkeem Jeffries said Biden is running against MTG and George Santos.
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know its hard to do, but you have to think like a criminal with a lifetime of corruption. If you can think that way, then you can understand the Democrat mind and be open to what they might pull off at the last minute.”
Actually, I am not arguing about that. I don’t put anything past the Democrats.
My point continues to be that the problem with that scenario is not that the Dems would be incapable or unwilling to pull it off, it is that they don’t have anyone with a better chance of being elected than Biden.
Where I disagree with you is the part where you think focus groups could “mold a new candidate” that would somehow appeal to enough people to win the election.
That is all fine in theory but very difficult in practice. You need a viable candidate first.
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Redfield and Wilton (a Brit polling firm) is out with a new national poll.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joe-biden-administration-approval-ratings-and-hypothetical-voting-intention-2-march-2024/
Key takeaways:
“The economy is the most-selected issue for both Donald Trump 2020 (66%) and Joe Biden 2020 (51%) voters. Other important issues for Biden voters include abortion (43%), healthcare (37%), and the environment (25%), while 53% of Trump voters select immigration, 25% select healthcare, and 25% also select government spending.
Looking ahead to the 2024 Presidential Election, our latest hypothetical voting intention finds Donald Trump has widened his lead over Joe Biden to four points nationally.
After weighing by likelihood to vote, 43% (+1) say they would vote for Trump and 39% (-2) of respondents say they would vote for Biden if they were candidates in 2024. 9% (+1) would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while a further 7% (+1) say they don’t know how they would vote.”
Abortion is not going to carry Biden across the finish line if HIS OWN BASE is more concerned about the economy than abortion.
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jason, I accept the weaknesses of my argument. I just feel like we are battling an enemy that would have no problem smothering Biden with a pillow in the night, so in the morning they could say he died of natural causes, allowing them to pick a replacement.
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This topic reminds me of the Brady Bunch episode where the band wanted Greg as the lead singer because he fit the costume.
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Biden caught on hot mike bragging to a Democratic congressman that he told Bibi that he and Bibi were about to “have a come to Jesus moment” LMAO
Perfect thing to say to the leader of the Jewish state. Way to go, Joe! Moron. You couldn’t make any of this stuff up.
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Biden cannot comprehend how someone else might actually want to WIN a war, because the only thing he knows is how to lose them.
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I thought that was Jan and Tina. They certainly know how to lose a war. Just cut off military aid.
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Bl’s bff got us into several wars from Afghanistan to Iraq and Ukraine and then the ME. We lost all,
Bl probably leaped up and applauded when his bff wants to build the the Gaza outpost. You know another way to bring illegals here or re create a Beirut situation.
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Jack Poso
@JackPosobiec
REVEALED: Illegal immigrant asylum seeker charged in Laken Riley’s murder is an ‘active member’ of Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang, released into US by Biden’s DHS report https://thepostmillennial.com/revealed-illegal-immigrant-asylum-seeker-charged-in-laken-rileys-murder-is-an-active-member-of-venezuelan-gang-released-into-us-by-ice-report?utm_campaign=64483
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Is Laken somehow related to Lincoln or Laker? Demented is beyond incompetent.
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I will eagerly await the news if Bibi comes to Jesus.
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America Runs on Duncan
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No. It’s a stupid idea.
Putina’s buddy is having a bad week in the Black Sea. Of course, other than nuclear submarines (the ones that don’t kill the crew), the Russian Navy hasn’t done much since Japan crushed it in 1905.
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Headline: Dems Upset Biden Referred to Illegal Alien Alleged Murderer as “Illegal”
They. Don’t. Give. A. ****. About. The. Murdered. Girl.
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Zzzzzzzz Dems in swing states will not be distracted from defeating Trump.
I know DW has hopes for Jill Stein in Wisconsin.
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Sinema would probably pick Manchin as running mate.
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Stein absolutely will grab votes out of Madison, WI. How many is the question.
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The only issue where I agree with Biden is military aid to Ukraine. The only issue where Putina disagrees with Putin is….ummmm…. whether to bomb schools or hospitals first.
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For the new “Gaza pier,” let’s have the Taliban provide port security.
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Fat Fani draws one primary challenger.
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https://babylonbee.com/news/white-house-explains-security-fence-around-capitol-is-to-keep-president-from-wandering-off-grounds-during-state-of-union
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https://babylonbee.com/news/white-house-explains-security-fence-around-capitol-is-to-keep-president-from-wandering-off-grounds-during-state-of-union
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Charles Barkley Tears Into Biden, Dems: “They Only Care About Black People Every Four Years”
Ding Ding Ding…we have a winner!
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Barkley also dominated Barney.
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https://thefederalist.com/2024/03/08/exclusive-liz-cheney-january-6-committee-suppressed-exonerating-evidence-of-trumps-push-for-national-guard/
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Baris Florida pole has Trump plus 16 over Demented in Florida
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On the same show CNN show Barkley co-hosts and in which said those things last week, he said, far, far worse about Trump. He made it clear he is all in for Biden in regards to his vote. Barkley recently said he would punch any person wearing a Trump mug shot shirt in the face. So you might want to be careful in selectively quoting him.
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Corey. When are you going to come out and admit you’re a Dem. It’s ok. This is a safe space.
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link to the Baris Florida poll?
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FWIW, I don’t see links to Baris Twitter about it. Other than a Miami sample.
That lead “appears” high.
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Totes safe!!!!
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I can’t take anyone who calls RDS “DeSoros” seriously, but Schweikert has always been an arse, and has put out bad info countless times.
Baris is a Trump sycophant, and he screwed himself badly with his polling and predictions in 2022. I doubt he recovers; Trafalgar made the same mistakes and isn’t taken seriously anymore.
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Finally Biden says something true:
BIDEN: “We added more to the national debt than any president in his term in all of history!”
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The Biden Troll is ridiculous.
Nothing Barkley said about Trump detracts from what he says about Dems and Biden.
The point is not whether he likes Trump or not, it is that the Dems are bleeding black votes.
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Baris is a Trump sycophant, and he screwed himself badly with his polling and predictions in 2022. I doubt he recovers; Trafalgar made the same mistakes and isn’t taken seriously anymore.”
I don’t agree. Maybe Baris is pro-Trump, so what, most of the MSM polls are partisan and skewed to the Dems.
He was wrong in 2022, but he has a decent record overall.
If we are going to dismiss him for being partisan, then we might as well dismiss another 95% of polls.
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Fair enough, Jason, and if his FL prediction of +16 and a ten point lead in MD county comes to pass, I’ll give him another look.
But his incessant hyping of David Giglio as a serious candidate in CA-20 this year and Duarte’s seat last cycle, only to see him flame out in low single digits, makes me question the methodology. Like Trafalgar in 2016 and PPP way back in 2008, Baris strikes me as someone who got one cycle right, and then based his reputation off that miracle win.
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Hey look, Nate Silverhack, a glorified former baseball statistician, traded his prediction that Dems would win everything in a year Dems into a lifelong career predicting Dems will will win everything.
The truth is just about all the polling was wrong in 2022. It was really wrong in PA and AZ. In GA and NV the Dems had very narrow wins but most polling had it within the MOE.
Baris was clear that he based a lot of predictions on the proven theory that election results pretty much move in tandem. He thought the red wave tide would lift all boats so to speak. For 2016 the massive blue collar vote Trump was getting in OH and PA was indicative that WI and MI and even MN would show the same trend.
In 2022 it moved in tandem against the predicted blue wave, Rs underperformed just about everywhere except NY and FL (for local reasons).
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Against the predicted red wave, not blue wave.
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My recollection is that Trafalger was pretty close in 2020, compared to others.
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LOL PPP – He still has me banned on his twitter account. I can’t remember his name anymore, but he got pissed because I called him out on his bad polling. My only banning on the internet.
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Vic – hard to believe that someone as polite as you could be banned! As Joe would say….c’mon man!!!
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LOL Thanks. I have “mellowed” over the years, but when I got involved heavily in the 2010 election I was a bit of a “firebrand”… on to another point
Think about this…in CA now, with their new min wage, a McDonalds worker makes $40K a year if they are full time at the min wage. What do you think that’s going to do to the price of burgers.
Yesterday, I took the young one to the mall and he wanted a jamba juice and some pretzel bites from Auntie whatevers. Total cost $20…with tip (BTW what the heck is it that now we get shamed into giving fast food employees a tip every time we order…come on man!)
With prices like that, Biden loses in November. I am sorry. I know many will disagree with me, but people are fed up with the cost of things, and right or left, they blame (correctly) Biden
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I have a message for you. Send me to Congress
-Demented @ Pa Rally
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13175569/Treat-Williams-crash-death-guilty-avoids-jail.html
Forgiveness? I don’t believe in it but I guess some do.
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