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Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
23 responses to “People are entitled to their opinions. Saying Trump is the greatest President since Lincoln is absurd. Both can be true. Discuss.”
Stone covers the plan to replace Biden with Big Mike at the convention via superdelegates.
Looks like Michelle vs Trump this election.
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Greatest President since Lincoln? Holy cow. I’ll vote for the guy in the GE vs any Democrat but surely no one believes that.
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Alex Jones? Isn’t he the clown that denied the existence of the Sandy Hook victims?
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Trump certainly has a decent argument for it since he ended the dark years (40 years of the Bush crime family)
If not for Trump, third wave Bushism might haven succeeded, and Jeb could be in his second term lol. And we would all be talking about George P Bush taking over or one of the others.
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I always get amused when today’s conservatives say they are the party of Lincoln, and how Lincoln was so great. Very confusing how they can proudly wave confederate flags, b1tch about the illegal War of Northern Aggression, while claiming that Lincoln was a great president.
That said, Lincoln was undoubtedly a great president. And its definitely a political winner to be compared to him.
A closer look at Lincoln would probably get labeled as a RINO by Republicans and at the same time, get him cancelled by Democrats.
Big Joe
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Not sure if there is going to be a prediction thread for NH, but here is my guess:
Trump 60
Haley 37
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I predict NH will be:
1. Biden will not win the most votes on the D side.
2. Trump 51, Haley 48
will be interesting to see how many Ds and left of center Indys vote in the R primary just to bust a nut on Trump.
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3. Haley will not be VP pick of Trump.
4. In the GE, Trump will not win NH.
Book it.
Oh, and Cash Cow agrees with me on everything I wrote above in NH.
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Bunu – Seriously. Is there any way we could get you to leave? Donate to a charity? Feed birds?
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Good point.
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I don’t just post the polls that I like:
PENNSYLVANIA
Susquehanna Polling & Research
Jan. 15-21
745 LV
Biden 47%
Trump 39%
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Better news…
NATIONAL poll
The Bullfinch Group
The Independent Center
Jan. 19-22
1,002 RV
Biden 42%
Trump 47%
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Remember that roughly 1 in every 20 polls are junk. Not going to dismiss the Susquehanna poll, as they have been somewhat reliable throughout the years, but it is valid to ask how Siena could have Biden ahead only 9 in NY, and VCU have Biden ahead only 3 in Virginia, while at the same time Biden leads PA by 8.
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Because people in each state are different.
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Sure, Bitter, people are always different in each state. And some states are shifting gradually to the red and some gradually to the blue. It wasn’t too many decades ago that West Virginia was a reliable BLUE state. But these things take time. There is no reasonable argument that can be made to suggest that overnight, based on two polls, NEW YORK is roughly the same as PENNSYLVANIA.
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but like I said, I am not going to throw Susquehanna under the bus. Their prior poll of PA had it a two point race, now they have it nearly an 8 point race, with the difference being a huge drop in Trump’s number.
It won’t be their final poll of PA, so will be interesting to see what they get later this Spring or early summer
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DW – You are the Poll Master. I just always find it interesting when people say, “If X wins Ohio by 4 they will win American Samoa by 9.”
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I agree Bitter that some of those types of connections are tenuous, if not outright silly. Especially if one tries to get too granular with it on only two data points. The value of such comparisons can be seen only in a more broadly applied principle, and that with a larger number of data points involved. For instance, in this case, Trump is leading nationally in the last six polls, from a variety of pollsters, ranging from 1 to 6 points. Trump has dominated in the polling of the seven key battleground states, of AZ, GA, NC, NV, MI, PA and WI. There are some polls to the contrary, like this Susquehanna poll. I suspect it to be an outlier, but will be watching other polls of PA carefully to see if Susquehanna has picked up a new trajectory, or if it was an outlier.
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Ok, sooooo, which thread are we posting in today. This thread, or the predictions thread?? LOL
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https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112
Coming Narrative
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Late morning…
Dave Wasserman…
New Hampshire was the first indicator on on election night 2022 that indie voters were penalizing MAGA-style Rs, helping Dems beat expectations.
The places where Haley is performing above average are also the places Biden’s support is likeliest to hold up the best in November.
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Full D.C. Circuit declines to rehear appeal of Trump gag order–on January 6th trial and it wasn’t even close. No member of the court even requested a vote to rehear the case.
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“Haley is performing above average”
Nobody knows how anybody is performing yet.
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She won all 6 votes in Dixon’s Notch. Landslide!
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