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Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
81 responses to “One day until Iowa and there will be a prediction thread.”
First. Go Lions 🦁
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The amount of focus on Vivek now by MAGA is amazing. It’s the exact same thing that happened when Trump began to trash RDS. Trump is definitely no Reagan.
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2024 GE: CBS News Poll
(R) Trump: 50% (+2)
(D) Biden: 48%
–
(R) Haley: 53% (+8)
(D) Biden: 45%
–
(R) DeSantis: 51% (+3)
(D) Biden: 48%
YouGov (B+) | 1,906 LV | January 10-12
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Again, Jason, I know you disagree or won’t Vite for Trump I’d shes on the ticket, but we NEED to take back the White House, and if this helps…so be it”
Sorry, no can do.
If Rs want to win the WH with my vote, don’t put a BLM panderer on the ticket.
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Jack Poso 🇺🇸
@JackPosobiec
The Des Moines Register poll found that 43% of Haley supporters in Iowa would vote for Joe Biden in the general
Only 23% would support Trump
Half self-ID as Dems or Independents
That tracks
7:30 AM · Jan 14, 2024
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That poll looks like trash to me.
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There is no BLM panderer winning. Only Trump has been endorsed by a few BLM members. Both can be true.
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Damn. So Dems would vote for a Dem if Haley is the GOP nominee. Shocking.
Too bad HHR was not around in 1980. A lot of posters would freak out over the Dems who voted for Reagan.
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Yup the drats know what they are doing. Iowa won’t be close however
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Paging hee haw and the R AG. Can you come back from sea island and look into this?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/01/judge-schedules-hearing-claims-da-fani-willis-improper/
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They are going to be witnesses I doubt they lift a finger.
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According to Breitbart today:
”Many Iowan Democrats reportedly plan to brave frigid temperatures on Monday and “crash” the Iowa caucus to artificially inflate former Gov. Nikki Haley’s election results against former President Donald Trump.
The potential Democrat vote for Haley would confirm Haley’s campaign is backed by Democrats and establishment Republicans who hate the former president.”
I’ve also been reading Haley’s comments supporting climate change back in 2017. She has made similar endorsements in 2023. You combine her climate change stances, her blasé border invasion concerns, and infinite Ukraine funding with no words of caution about oversight, it’s apparent she will govern as a globalist just like Biden is doing.
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That was a very astute analysis of the election by Doug Schoen, a democrat pundit.
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Shipwreckedcrew
@shipwreckedcrew
From Doug Schoen:
“In many ways, the upcoming presidential election may mirror the 1980 election, when Jimmy Carter suffered a landslide defeat at the hands of Ronald Reagan.
What should alarm Democrats is that Carter, like President Biden now, was extremely unpopular, while Reagan, like Donald Trump, was considered almost unelectable. Similarly, inflation was a thorn in Carter’s side, much as it has dogged Biden since the first year of his term. Not for nothing, 2022’s inflationary surge hit the highest levels since … Jimmy Carter was in office.
On foreign policy, we were facing a number of challenges then, as we are now. In 1980, the U.S. was still dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis, not entirely dissimilar from the hostage crisis in Gaza and our issues in the Middle East.”
If you are under 60, you didn’t live through that election. You didn’t live through the “Reagan is Hitler” era.
Yes, the Democrats use that every 4 years regardless of who the GOP nominates.
If you are under 60, you don’t realize the degree to which “kitchen table” issues motivate a large segment of the electorate and they really don’t give a shit about the partisan claims each side makes about the opposition being unfit for office.
Inflation is high, interest rates are high, energy cots are high, crime rates are rising, I fear for the future of my kids and grand kids — and so on.
They then tend to vote against the side that they think is responsible for those problems.
Joe Biden doesn’t have much “good” to balance all that out.
Foreign policy and the state of affairs in the world are a horror show.
But the two killers are high interest rates and +17% cumulative inflation over the past 3 years. It was coined the “Misery Index” in 1979-80.
People see it in the store every day. They remember what milk, meat, and bread costs 3 years ago, and they see what it costs today.
They are going to see it in the next 60-90 days when they pay their heating bills.
This is where elections are won and lost — the 20% of the voters in the middle.
https://themessenger.com/opinion/2024-biden-approval-rating-1980-jimmy-carter-weak-foreign-policy-ronald-reagan-landslide
10:53 AM · Jan 13, 2024
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It’s the economy 2.0 plus the high inflation. Energy, food, home owners, car insurance, rent, etc,
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And we have the debacle in Afghanistan (Milley special😡, the fraud involving Ukraine and the grifter, the secretary of woke defense going awol, etc,.
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Nikita may sue Rds for a fake campaign ad (her claim). She hates the 1st amendment.
They are thrashing each other in the race for 2nd.
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Time for the ga legislature to get involved if hee has and the ag won’t do sheot because they are scared of the ga blob.
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Enough with the sea island strategy and wokeness
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/01/missing-sailors-confirmed-navy-seals-lost-boarding-mission/
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Another embarrassment for the military leadership. . Send seals during high waves for such a mission.
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Did you support Limbaugh’s stupid Operation Chaos in 2008 where he encouraged Rs to register as Dems to keep the Obama v Hilary contest going? I did not.
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https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/01/14/zelensky-to-join-klaus-schwab-for-special-address-to-davos-elites/
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Senate rino trash bill.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/01/13/speaker-mike-johnson-shoots-down-lankfords-senate-immigration-deal/
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Why the never trump folks are out of touch
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2024-election-about-10-7-not-1-6
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That doesn’t surprise me in the least bit.
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They realize to have any chance they have to eliminate the other first and ASAP. Tomorrow night will tell us a lot.
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The Politico opinion raises some good points. But , Hugh misses the big point,
2024 is about the economy and inflation.
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Apparently, Al-abc did a pole but habe no head 2 head numbers for prez.
Demented is down to 33 percent as everything continues to implode
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Is the10/7 date, the day that the demented allowed Pooty poot to do his incursion? Hugh Hewitt, like the gop-e, are allergic to focusing on the economy.
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Ann Selzer…she is admitting my poll doesn’t make sense.
“Her enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping,” Selzer said. “That 61% are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up.”
At the same time, Haley’s favorability ratings have also fallen to the point where they’re barely above water.
Prediction… Haley will not finish second.
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From 2016 up through 2022. The polls have been historically wrong. I have learned my lesson. Wait until the vote comes in.
I am beginning to evaluate floor and ceiling numbers for candidates. The available data in the poll internals hasn’t made sense to me all year. This SelzerNBC poll is a classic example.
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I also predict Trump will win but I doubt his ceiling is close to being over 50%.
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Regarding RDS… he will outperform media expectations and place a solid 2nd and win some delegates. I am pretty sure RDS is hoping to place second in SC to knock Haley out.
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Headlines today:
New evidence concerning the hijacker D.B. Cooper,…appears that Trump was involved.
Two Navy seals are missing off coast of Somalia..Trup weas to blame.
Cold Weather grips nation…Trump is to blame for poo-pooing glowbull warming.
Defense Sec. Austin has colon cancer…Trump seems to be involved.
Volcano in Iceland Erupting, Trump’s fault.
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ALL THE POLLS ARE WRONG. A HHR tradition.
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Zzzzzzzzzz The only person who ordered the invasion was Putin. He is solely responsible.
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It’s to be expected that RDS and Haley will be at each other throats at this point. Neither has a chance with the other in the race. The only way Trump gets this over fast is to win these early states by over 50%. Tomorrow will be a huge indicator.
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Breaking News – Only isolationist morons still believe it is possible to disengage from the world since the airplane was invented.
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“since the airplane was invented.”
Biden replies: “I remember it well, as I was campaigning in Ohio. I went into this bicycle store, and here were these two nice brothers trying to work on something. I ask what sort of bicycle it is, and they tell me its not a bicycle…its a flying machine, but we can’t work out the details. So I looked at their plans, made a few suggestions, and the rest is history.”
–DW
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Seltzer is the gold standard of Iowa. Even when she’s off, as in 2020, she openly critiques her own work and offers plausible explanations ahead of time (the whole foray tie or near tie being whacky back then).
If she’s sensing something wrong in her crosstabs regarding Haley, I’d take her at her word. I think RDS still come in second, and possibly a stronger second than we might otherwise think.
If I’m wrong, cream sodas for all. (Did NYC migrate over, or did he bail a la the vegan nutjob?)
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* Four way tie, not “foray.”
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NYC did not get in the lifeboat.
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Sometimes I wondered if TCGA was actually vegan at all, or just trying to get Jason’s goat
Jason – in your honor, I have adopted the bacon, proscuito and salami diet. Bacon for breakfast, Proscuito and stick salami for dinner. Working like a charm 😉
Seltzer is the gold standard, but I can see how those cross tabs are correct if she really does have all that Dem and Indy support. They would not “enthusiastically” support her if they are trying to cause chaos, just trying to get RDS out of the game.
I am still stuck on my prediction for tomorrow night. I think weather has a lot to do with it. Dems and Indy’s can say they are going to go out, but -7* is darn cold, and I think they pass when it comes to spending hours caucusing.
Stay tuned
GF glad youre back
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Hee haw and the ag are scared by her?
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Nikita also fell for this.
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Shipwreckedcrew
@shipwreckedcrew
The podcast last week by the
@NRO
Editors has one of the worst segments I’ve heard on the Appeals Court oral argument last week re the immunity claim made by former Pres. Trump in the DC prosecution.
Contrary to all four participants, Trump’s attorney did NOT say a POTUS could not be prosecuted for using Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival. The answer he gave was a “qualified yes” — premised on POTUS first being impeached and convicted by Congress.
Just about the entirety of their discussion on the subject reflected a complete ignorance on the legal issues, and it was obvious that none of them had actually listened to the recording of the argument, they were simply talking about it based on what they had read.
2:15 PM · Jan 14, 2024
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“You cannot expect black women to be perfect. We need to be allowed to stumble. We need grace. We are all sinners…”
But apparently Trump is not allowed to stumble, and doesn’t get any grace.
–DW
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Hee haw finally makes a remark on fat fani.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111756731425977572
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Hee haw and the ag need to make their moves. Be strong.
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She is playing the race card.
https://www.ajc.com/news/crime/fulton-da-defends-special-prosecutor-during-church-speech/HLHFIKVP4FHIJH4ANZYV7HKHP4/
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https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/01/14/nbc-admits-deep-state-exists-key-operative-mary-mccord/
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https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/13/georgia-trump-prosecutor-nathan-wade-contempt-00135478
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This behavior is no surprise. You knew there was something.
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Good point and the media (Politico and the AJC) are openly publishing these articles. They would be defending these corrupt officials.
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I keep waiting to hear of a mass shooting by Tgca. I hope I am wrong.
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DeSantis: You can be the most worthless Republican in America, if you kiss the ring, Trump will say you are wonderful.
TRUE
Narcissist Trump
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-investigation-intowhat-really-happened-on-january-6-entering-new-phase-speaker-johnson-support
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https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/01/14/atlanta-da-fani-willis-plays-the-race-card-giving-proactive-speech-at-big-bethal-ame-church/
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“You Cannot Expect Black Women to be Perfect” – Fani Willis Plays Race Card After Allegations of ‘Improper’ Relationship with Top Trump Prosecutor
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Shouldn’t the irs be targeting big bethel ame?
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Bitter – did we ever know who TCGA really was?
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No. Just an angry little man who claimed to be a conservative who worshipped Trump (who is not a conservative) and hated DeSantis (who is a conservative).
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Bl, ny Mike never made it here?
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And Marv, he posts infrequently.
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Hall of Fame NFL coach Tony Dungy says Taylor Swift is part of why fans are ‘disenchanted’”
Dungy was one of several former football stars interviewed by Fox News, and was asked about a poll that showed less than 25% of Gen Z-ers consider themselves “avid sports fans.” Fellow Hall of Famer Rod Woodson attributed the cause to the interest in sports betting, and there are more general fans rather than fans of teams, but Dungy went another route in his explanation of it.
“I think we’ll always have sports in some form or fashion. Some people are disenchanted with it,” Dungy said.
When asked about the Taylor Swift effect, Dungy said the megastar is an example of why people aren’t that interest in the NFL.
“That’s the thing that’s disenchanting people with sports now,” he said. “There’s so much on the outside coming in. Entertainment value and different things that’s taking away from what really happens on the field.”
The woke NFL will probably cancel him now.
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Dems cooking up a plan in Iowa: dems for Haley
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dems-hatch-republicans-day-scheme-boost-haley-vs-trump-iowa-caucuses
I remember when all republicans hated John McCain only for him to come out of the blue in NH to win. I think deepstate and the donors are trying to engineer a Haley victory there like they did for McCain and then pump the polls for her once she wins.
“Live free or die” should probably become the dumb a$$ state if they try to ruin the GOP yet again
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Vivek was correct in his post last week. The donors will probably demand DeSantis bend the knee to Haley once Fox starts pumping her up after a fake NH victory.
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There are outdoor signs on PA’s interstates “Contact sports change your child’s brain”
The wokesters are trying to cancel contact sports, the NFL will one day wake up to the fact the leftists are really not football fans. But it will be too late.
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Sometimes I wondered if TCGA was actually vegan at all, or just trying to get Jason’s goat”
Puhhhhhlleeeeze…
It’s a llama.
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I predict:
Trump under 50%
Golden Calf comes in second
Maybe wishful thinking….
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Trump first and then Vivek second would be the best outcome
The worst outcome would be Haley in 2nd because fake news would use that to try to build a narrative for her in NH.
DeSantis finishing above Haley would be helpful.
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They will continue to make the NFL as woke as can be until its unwatchable.
BTW who else though the Lions defender had a massive handful of jersey on the 4th down play
They came for the NHL, and Bettman is probably the worst, most woke commissioner of them all, but the players and fans rejected he and his woke warriors. They will come after the NHL soon and cancel it…or try to.
They already have to some degree. It’s been four or five Rangers games in a row that I don’t see any fights. WTH.
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Vivek is a buffoon, right out of the Paulista coward playbook. Go home already…coward.
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Well 2024 has been real good for this Detroit/Michigan sports fan…Michigan Natty…Lions first playoff win in 30 years (watching with my 24 yo adult son made it more fun) and Red Wings are 5-0-1 in January.
Now if the best conservative Governor in my lifetime who the media and establishment hate could go head to head with Trump in the primary he might win too.
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The NHL players and fans are holding fast against woke craziness.
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Yeah I saw that jersey grabbing a couple times. But we have been screwed by the referees so much it’s poetic justice the Cowboys are out and we get the extra home game next week. LOL.
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What the heck…
First all AI poll I have ever seen…
Apollo AI
POLL ALERT AI & Tech poll Iowa Republican Primary
1/14/2024- PoliTech AI
Donald Trump: 38%
Ron DeSantis: 35%
Nikki Haley: 14%
Vivek Ramaswamy: 13%
Sentiment Trend:
Trump: falling
DeSantis: rising
Haley: falling
Ramaswamy: rising
N=500 (70% Republican 30% Independent)
(more methodology information in the thread below)
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Jeff
I guess I never noticed the Lions logo next to your name. I was thinking about that. so many years without a home playoff game and then two in two weeks. The Rams had plenty of chances to win that game anyway. Three red zone forays and 9 points…lose by 1. It’s on them. Stafford was amazing, but failed when they needed him most.
No one to stop the 49’ers now. No offense to the Lions, but they aren’t beating them on the road in January. Not yet any way.
Can’t believe how the cowgirls laid down…ok, yes I can. HAHAHA, they are already talking about Belichick taking over there. I pray not, I really really pray he doesn’t tarnish himself and sink that low. 😉
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No way that AI poll is right. I think Trump’s floor is 45% and whomever finishes second ceiling is 25%.
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When everyone hates joe biden.
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