- Collins in Deep Trouble in Maine
- Monday Morning After Incredible Rescue
- Good Friday for those who Observe it
- No Trouble for GOP in Florida
- Breaking: Oak Island Treasure Found!
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
87 responses to “No free lunch thread.”
I know this site is a shell of the former HHR. I don’t post polls because they were not my favorite part of HHR and the copy and paste function of this platform is problematic. I appreciate DW and others posting them.
The number of posters is down and some are likely gone forever. Of course, 1 remains who apparently will never stop.
I do not want anybody else to leave. I would appreciate that if asked a direct question, there would be a response. Even a GFY is more courteous than dismissing the question and refusing to answer. That said, I just put up the threads. I am not the King of HHR.
The GOP is fractured right now. It needs to come together in order to win.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fanigate-goes-full-jerry-springer-das-alleged-lover-left-wife-dire-need-after-failing
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Bitter, the new HHR can grow as more people find it…especially during the election year.
–DW
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NEW HAMPSHIRE – GOP Primary
St. Anselm
Trump 45
Haley 31
Christie 9
DeSantis 6
Ramaswamy 6
Something Rich Baris points out is that Trump’s floor is solid around 40 give or take based on the state. You could add 100 more candidates to the ballot, and Trump’s number won’t move below that floor percentage.
Trump looks poised to win both IA and NH.
–DW
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In the hands of the mullahs, Ccp, and Russians.
tps://www.airforcetimes.com/pentagon/2024/01/11/pentagon-fell-short-in-tracking-1-billion-in-ukraine-aid-ig-finds/
WASHINGTON ― The Defense Department has not fully complied with enhanced tracking requirements for roughly $1 billion worth of equipment sent to Ukraine, a Pentagon Inspector General report released Thursday found.
Most of the improperly tracked equipment is night vision devices, but the list also includes drones as well as missiles. The report did not find any instances of misuse or diversion of the U.S. equipment, as Pentagon Inspector General Robert Storch noted such an assessment would “fall beyond the scope of this project.”
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Look like Nikita dropped some in NH, given her Biden light policy positions.
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Absurd. Haley is a solid conservative and Tina is just lying now.
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Here is an update to my chart showing the average gap–Trump’s lead or deficit in each battleground state, and where Trump exceeds 270
IA 10.6
OH 10.5 (was 9.8)
FL 9.1
TX 7.5
GA 6.4
AZ 6.0
NC 5.8
MI 5.1 (278 EVs for Trump)
NV 3.4
PA 0.8
WI 0.4 (was 0.0)
MN -1.8 (was -2.7)
ME -4.0
VA -4.8
CO -7.0
NH -7.5
NM -8.0
–DW
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Nikita is a solid conservative.
lol.
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Don’t forget the defense secretary “monitored all of this in real time from the hospital.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/01/did-secretary-state-blinken-tip-yemen-us-bombings/
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Demented removed the tootsies from the AUMF. Congress needs to reign in demented.
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Watch for the blob to run as the no names candidate.
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She is. Nobody satisfies you. Everybody is a RINO to you – except for Trump (who was a Democrat and funder of Democrats for decades).
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More fat jokes from unserious Tina. No substance but she can copy and post the thoughts of others.
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Iowa Republican Caucus
InsiderAdvantage
Trump 51
Haley 17
DeSantis 17
Ramaswamy 7
–DW
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Tina supports Putin winning and now opposes taking out terrorists who are attacking shipping in international waters. Quite a run for the alleged RINO Hunter.
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Bl supports fraud and grift
You are having a bad week.
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Zzzzzzzzz I support keeping Ukraine an independent sovereign nation and defeating Putin. You don’t.
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7% of Iowa Republicans are like Bunu? No need to visit there now.
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There are many mathematical formulas that are famous and sure:
“if two parallel lines are cut by a transversal, then the alternate interior angles are congruent.”
“if a Ron Paul loon supports a Republican candidate, then it is only because that candidate is perceived to have the ability to destroy the GOP.”
“The degree of support a GOP candidate receives from a Ron Paul loon is parallel to the candidate’s desire and ability to destroy the GOP.”
Ron Paul loons want to destroy the GOP as punishment for rejecting their messiah when he came.
–DW
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Rand Paul Unleashes on Nikki Haley, Kicks Off ‘NeverNikki’ Campaign
Rand Paul is neverHaley for all the wrong reasons. He hates the fact she is pro-Ukraine aid and for a strong US military and a strong defense of our interests around the word, none of which I have a problem with. But if the end result is she never becomes President I guess I am allied with him. I feel like I have to tak 20 showers.
My problem with Nikki “you have to feel my pain” Haley is this tweet, which to me disqualifies her from ANY elected office.
“It’s important to understand that the death of George Floyd was personal and painful for many. In order to heal, it needs to be personal and painful for everyone.”
Bitter says he merely “disagrees” with this statement. But why does he disagree? Probably for the same reason I do, he does not feel responsible for the actions of a rogue cop in Minneapolis and doesn’t want to be told by Nikki Haley what should be personal and painful to him.
The difference is he doesn’t think it was pandering to BLM, which I find incredible. How can trying to put a guilt trip on America for something nobody else was responsible for is not pandering.
The Golden Calf summed it up perfectly. He used “virtual signaling” instead of pandering but it is basically the same thing.
“People in Iowa had nothing to do with that, or Florida or South Carolina,” DeSantis said. “She was virtue signaling to the left, she was accepting the narrative and she was trying to impress people who are never going to like us.”
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Iowa Caucus weather forecast (Des Moines):
High temperature: 1
Low temperature: -8
–DW
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When will blob start working for the other team?
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BOOM
Here is a new state poll, but lets have some fun with it…will play name that state…no googling for it, just submit your guess:
Here is the result:
Biden 36
Trump 35
Guess the state:
A. Pennsylvania
B. New York
C. Rhode Island
D. Oregon
E. Maine
–DW
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Laura Loomer is posting that Nikki Haley and her friends in the Defense Industry are manipulating the weather in order to hurt Trump in Iowa.
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Philadelphia is going to erect a statue of Harriet Tubman outside of City Hall. The people making the decision must not have realized they are honoring a black female Republican veteran.
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I guess that pretty much ends any reason to listen to Laura Loomer.
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Oregon because every 4 years there is hope that it will vote for the GOP.
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Oregon is a good guess, but its wrong.
–DW
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DW,
Maine. Trump leads by 14 in the 2nd, Biden by 16 in the 1st, hence the Biden +1 top line.
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Maine is the correct answer. And here is the breakdown for the two congressional districts which by themselves are not really in play:
ME_01
Biden 43, Trump 27
ME_02
Trump 42, Biden 28
And so overall the rest of the state which is worth 2 EVs is where its a statistical tie.
–DW
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I guess. Ny
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Headline: Liberal Teacher Tells Students It’s “Offensive” to Identify as Straight
You can see where this is going…how much more offensive is it to also be a conservative Christian. Its what I have been saying for years. Eventually Christians will be jailed for hate-speech, because whatever we say (or refuse to say) will be construed as hate.
–DW
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Another headline: Republican Senators Contest Proposed Biden Admin Rule To Remove Kids From Foster Families Who Don’t Affirm “Gender Identity”
You must be a gender freak to qualify to be a foster family.
You must be a gender freak to be in our military.
You must be a gender freak to be in the public school system.
You must be a gender freak to be in government.
You must be a gender freak to be in the medical profession.
You must be a gender freak to participate in sports.
You must be a gender freak to participate in the economy.
Bottom line, Dems demand EVERYONE be a gender freak.
–DW
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DW – I know you are very committed to your faith and want to be a martyr (St. DW). I think you are going overboard on this one.
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That’s because they need the misfits to win. It’s how Obama won, and ever since. That’s why they push the agenda they do
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Oregon sc dismisses the lawsuit to remove trump from the ballot.
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NATIONAL MATCHUP:
John Zogby Strategies
Jan. 6-12
1,012 LV
Biden 46%
Trump 47%
–DW
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Bitter, its not that I am seeking martyrdom, just pointing out the news as its released. I will happily post headlines to the contrary when there is good news.
–DW
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Muh Polls Observations …Trumps poll numbers are beginning to trend down…very low percentages in these polls for both he and Biden.
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See, I am capable of posting good headlines when they exist:
AOC Brutally Heckled in Her Own District
–DW
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My friend Robin M. Slowly says the Repubs should call things Bidenflation economically.
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JeffP, actually you are wrong on this. Trump’s numbers are holding steady and actually improving. Just yesterday Rasmussen had it 49/41 for Trump nationally. That’s a blowout.
The last time Zogby had a national poll was back in October and it was 43/41 for Trump. Today they found Trump +1. Statistically about the same as before, without significant movement.
But where there is clear movement is in Trump Favorability. Here were four Trump favorability polls from early to mid-December:
41/56
45/55
41/58
42/57
But then Dems started throwing Trump off the ballot or trying to do so, and now notice the last seven:
45/54
45/50
46/52
44/53
43/56
47/49
49/48
Much better.
I don’t point out any of this because I love Trump. I am for DeSantis. But its obvious to me that the primary is already over. And so I have moved on.
–DW
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While I want you to outlive me, a St. DW statue wearing a Mets jersey would be cool.
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2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Insider Advantage
Trump 51
Haley 17
DeSantis 17
Ramaswamy 7
2024 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary St. Anselm
Trump 45
Haley 31
Christie 9
DeSantis 6
Ramaswamy 6
Maine: Trump vs. Biden Critical Insights
Biden 36
Trump 35
Maine CD1: Trump vs. Biden Critical Insights
Biden 43
Trump 27
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden Critical Insights
Trump 42
Biden 28
California Senate – Open Primary LA Times/Berkeley IGS
Schiff 21, Porter 17, Garvey 13, Lee 9, Bradley 3, Early 3, Bassett 2
2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Suffolk University
Trump 54
Haley 22
DeSantis 13
Ramaswamy 6
2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Iowa St./Civiqs
Trump 55
Haley 14
DeSantis 14
Ramaswamy 8
2024 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primaryn WHDH-TV/Emerson
Trump 44
Haley 28
Christie 12
DeSantis 7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden I&I/TIPP
Trump 41
Biden 40
Trump
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy vs. Manchin vs. West vs. Stein vs. Mapstead
I&I/TIPP
Trump 37
Biden 34
Kennedy 8
West 2
Mapstead 1
Stein 1
Manchin 1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos
Trump 48
Biden 48
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Kennedy Reuters/Ipsos
Trump 30
Biden 29
Kennedy 18
General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports
Trump 49
Biden 41
General Election: Haley vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports
Haley 36
Biden 38
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/01/were-next-gonzalo-lira-reported-dead-55-ukrainian/
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Nikita has plunged in nh. It’s the race for second place.
3rd place finisher in Iowa is done.
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Paging hee haw and the useless Ga Ag.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fanigate-goes-full-jerry-springer-das-alleged-lover-left-wife-dire-need-after-failing
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DW,
Home now and scrolling through this post and comments
I would have been correct because I said Maine.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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Look at the RCP Trump/Biden trend lines. That’s what I am referencing. Trumps lost a couple points since last month.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
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Cash Cow and I discussed predictions for I and NH.
We agree, so this is a joint prediction.
Trump lost to Ted Cruz in IA in 2016 27% to 26%–in a crowded field.
Trump got 97% in 2020 with no real opposition–keep that in mind.
Cow and I say the 2025 IA primary caucus results will be:
49% Trump (Trump supporters less likely to show up for FRIGID caucus because everyone knows he is WAY ahead)
23% Desantis (IA gov. endorsement)
20% Haley
8% Vanswampy
Cow especially wants to see Trump under 50%
_________________________________________
NH
42% Trump
20% Haley (benefits most from Christie dropping out)
17% DeSantis. (I have no reason why he is not getting more traction)
5% Vanswampy
Place your bets (but Cow and I will not cover)
If Cow and I are WAY off, Cow says she will eat a (straw) hat.
I will eat a few more chocolate drops and coconut bon bons (whether I am way off or not)
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/01/biden-treated-like-toddler-pennsylvania-bike-shop-video/
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What if HHR is a micro accurate sample of the GOP primary voters? RDS wins. 😂
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The grifter killed an American journalist.
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No. Putin did. No war. No journalist in Ukraine. You are blinded by your support for Putin’s victory.
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Bl is having a bad week with the blob falling apart, the report of the fraud, and the grifter killing an American journalist.
Maybe, he can grab choka chip ice cream with demented
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IA a prediction range
The weather will help RDS in IA. He has got an army of caucus captains. Late deciding and “caucus switching” will favor him.
Floor and ceiling percentages.
Trump 35-44% I believe not debating is hurting him.
DeSantis 28-38% He has had a great campaign and organization in IA.
Haley 15-20% Suburban women like her a lot.
Vivek 5-8% He will never get out of single digits with Trump running.
Others 1%
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If you look at the actual ratings by age group Trump only won ratings on the 55+ the other night.
“Post-script on this — Fox’s viewership advantage in this head-to-head entirely driven by boomers. The DeSantis-Haley debate basically tied Fox-Trump among 25-54s and won 18-34 demo. So basically a reflection of the broader generational divide on the Right.”
CNN’s Republican Presidential Primary Debate and Post Debate Analysis Ranks #1 In Cable News Among Both P25-54 And P18-34 Demos
Combined TV & Streaming Audience of 6.4 Million
Debate Surpassed Fox News in the P25-54 Demo
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“White House national security spokesman John Kirby in a Thursday briefing confirmed that at this point US military supplies to Ukraine have stopped. The aid dried up after the very final aid package of $250 million was authorized by President Biden at the end of December based on the Presidential Drawdown Authority, and as Congress blocked his $100 billion supplemental budget request.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-hails-unprecedented-3bn-arms-deal-uk-us-supplies-have-stopped
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Sorry, Jeff. HHR is just as fractured as the GOP.
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I am glad you Knowledge that. I never hear that in the “conservative” media etc… It’s going to take new leadership and a coherent conservative agenda. I am not even sure what core beliefs the GOP has anymore.
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*Acknowledge
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Old people like me love love love Faux News.
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Jan to reply in 3,2,1
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Laura Loomer is stalking and confronting Ron DeSantis across Iowa, calling him a bitch.
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She is a nut case like Bunu.
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Don Jr has said Loomer will be the next White House Press Secretary.
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However I overcame that addiction years ago.
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Nice. Let’s hope the US comes through soon.
“U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the expected 2.5-billion-pound ($3.2 billion) military aid package during his visit to Kyiv on Jan. 12, according to the Kyiv Independent’s reporter.
The two leaders also signed a new deal on security cooperation, the first bilateral commitment finalized as part of the security assurances announced by the Group of Seven (G7) last July.
The newly announced aid package includes air defense equipment, anti-tank weapons, long-range missiles, and training for Ukrainian soldiers, Sunak said. The U.K. government announced earlier that the tranche also consists of the “largest ever commitment of drones.”
Of the 2.5 billion pounds, at least 200 million will be spent to procure and produce thousands of military drones for Ukraine, including surveillance, long-range strikes, and sea drones, read the U.K. government’s press release from earlier today.
The prime minister noted that this is the U.K.’s largest assistance package since the start of the full-scale war. Ukraine’s head of state clarified that the $3.2 billion package is allocated for this year.
The security deal signed by Sunak and President Volodymyr Zelensky stipulates London’s commitment to support Kyiv for a period of 10 years, according to Ukraine’s head of state.”
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DeSantis says conservative media carries water for Trump: “He’s got basically a Praetorian Guard of the Conservative media. Fox News, the websites, all this stuff. They just don’t hold him accountable because they’re worried about losing viewers.”
So true…I have lost trust in many of these people. This is exactly what the Woke Commie Dem media does. There will be huge price to pay.
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Are we going to have a predictions thread? Contest??
Btw there have always been factions in the GOP all the way back to 1856.
Heck – look at 1980 Conservative Reagan vs the “Rockefeller wing candidate” Bush
1952 – Taft (ultra conservative) vs Ike wing
1912 – Taft v Roosevelt
Late 1880’s – progressive wing vs conservative wing
Etc etc
Believe it or not we are always going to have to be the big tent Party or else we die. This labeling everyone who’s not lockstep with what a person believes the party should be a “traitor” is absurd.
In life you never ever get 100% of what you want. Compromise is the one constant in life. The sooner we all realize this and start working together, the better
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Although this thread is NO FREE LUNCH, hre is something that flies in the face of that.
“NEWS IN NUMBERS
$1,500
The amount that women during mid-pregnancy will receive under a new program in Flint, Mich., aimed at helping remove families and infants from deep poverty. The program recipients will also receive $500 each month throughout the first year after birth. The program has no restrictions on income.”
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“NEWS IN NUMBERS
60-80
The Maine House vote, along party lines, against an impeachment resolution that targeted Shenna Bellows, the first secretary of state in history to block someone from running for president by invoking the U.S. Constitution’s insurrection clause.”
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Vic – There will be an Iowa Prediction Thread on Monday.
I have voted for Republicans I did not like or fully agree with because the Democrat is always worse. I was the first person to use the term Amoral Scumbag at HHR and it described Trump (Jason stole it for Robbie). Despite that, Trump got my vote in the 2016 and 2020 GEs. I prefer DeSantis or Haley as the nominee but that won’t happen so Trump will get my vote (but not respect) in 2024.
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“NEWS IN NUMBERS
$3.1 billion
The amount that the Biden administration is spending to convince farmers and ranchers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester carbon in the ground. The grants also aim to help make amends for a century of system discrimination by the USDA against Black, Native and other historically underserved farmers.”
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Bitter – I know you do. You tolerate a lot on here, and always vote R. I also realize that the primary season is the time to back your preferred candidate, so I understand the staunchness of some, just not the need to continually attack others in the party. Reagan’s 1st rule, right.
Walt – They could do that without giving away the money for free. They could purchase the carbon credits created by sequestration, and then resell them…actually turning a bit of a profit, while at the same time, getting the farmers the income they would have lost…all without the taxpayer spending billions.
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Vic – I was the first to use the term Deadenders at HHR to describe posters who were willing to back candidates doomed to lose to “send a message.” The only message sent by losing to Democrats is that the Dem wins.
Reagan used to say it was better to get 80% of what you want than drive off a cliff with all flags flying.
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Speaking of Ammoral Scumbag I haven’t seen a Robbie fly by in a long time.
I am going to try to post more polling, like I did above. Maybe it will get some of our old people back. Then I think about it, 20 year is a long time. Lots of people have been on here, and I guess a lot have had life changes in that time.
Still, I hope this blog thrives again. Maybe we can do something so it’s not in word press, so easier to post and read comments, like the format Dave had. I’m going to check with some web people ive used before. I wish there was some link to how the page used to look, for them to get an idea.
Ok…lets see if I am the last poster of the night…yet again. Thank you COVID.
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I was the first person to use the term Amoral Scumbag at HHR and it described Trump (Jason stole it for Robbie).”
BS.
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I agree the format Dave had was a lot better than this one, no criticism of Bitter, he had to play the hand he was dealt. Ideally we would just have purchased the site from Dave, then we could have had the annals too, so Bitter couldn’t make up a story about “inventing Amoral Scumbag” ( I probably called Amoral Scumbag that way before Trump).
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Jason – agreed. Buying it from Dave would have been best, but we have to work with what we have, and thank you Bitter so much for keeping this alive.
I will definitely look into how to make it more like what we are used to.
I found the hedgehog report facebook page which has 38 members, but can’t see the members. I thought that might be a way to get some back…the good ones anyway 😉
Maybe DW you can’t start to do analysis of the polls, the way we used to do it. I will keep posting as many as I can find as we head into the general, in addition to House and Senate races where I can find them.
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Mad man nails it more or less https://twitter.com/ronin21btc/status/1746087944425746594?s=20
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https://twitter.com/KaladinFree/status/1745819751857659951?s=20 DeSantis ad destroys Neocon Nikki
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Bunu post. Zzzzzzzz
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Zzzzzzzzz. I did call Trump Amoral Scumbag long before you stole it to use for Robbie.
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ever watch those state farm commercials where they throw the red flag. Shame we dont have a video replay of who was first LOL
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