The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.6 / 55.6-14.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.5 / 52.1-6.6

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +21207228

2026 Senate Forecast

MEOHTXMIGANHMNNC
Gap+2.0+1.4+1.2+1.8+1.4+4.5+7.0+12.6
Count5051524847464544

  • Tuesday!

  • Sen. Hawley cruising to re-election in MO.

    According to Remington Research Group: MISSOURI – US Senate – Remington Hawley 53 Kunce 39 March 6-8; 713 LV

  • DW failed us. No new polls.

  • Good news. 1 less hour of listening to Biden and Trump.

  • Klobuchar Clobbers Fraser in MN Senate Race

    According to a new poll from SurveyUSA: MINNESOTA – US Senate – SurveyUSA Klobuchar 49 Fraser 33 2/23 – 2/28; 1,603 LV

  • Until there are polls…

  • Trump leads in ALASKA

    ALASKA – Data for Progress Trump 53 Biden 41 Feb. 23-March 2; 1,120 LV

  • Time for those who did not watch the speeches to opine…

  • State of the Union Address Open Thread.

  • Vermont Polls

    Presidential Polls – Vermont: AVERAGE Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap University of New Hampshire 10/29-11/2; 1,167 LV 31 63 +32 University of New Hampshire 8/15-8/19; 924 LV 29 70 +41 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Final Average 33.6 56.6 +23 Zogby 4/13-4/21; 272 LV 35.1 56.1 +21 Florida Atlantic University 2/29-3/3; 111 LV 28 59…

  • 11 states polled by FAU.

    But beware the tiny sample sizes: VIRGINIA – Florida Atlantic University Trump 42 Biden 49 Feb. 29-March 3; 368 LV VERMONT – Florida Atlantic University Trump 28 Biden 59 Feb. 29-March 3; 111 LV UTAH – Florida Atlantic University Trump 46 Biden 38 Feb. 29-March 3; 166 LV TEXAS – Florida Atlantic University Trump 51…

  • Trump way up in IN, Biden with edge in MN

    According to Emerson, and SurveyUSA: INDIANA – Emerson/The Hill Trump 55 Biden 34 3/2 – 3/5; 1,000 RV MINNESOTA – SurveyUSA Trump 38 Biden 42 2/23-3/28; 1,603 LV

  • You know the drill. Post away.

  • As promised,,,New thread!

  • Trump cruising in MONTANA, senate race close.

    According to Emerson: MONTANA – Emerson/The Hill Trump 56 Biden 35 Five candidates: Trump 49 Biden 28 Kennedy 8 Stein 1 West 1 US Senate: Tester 44 Sheehy 42 2/26 – 3/2; 1,000 RV

  • And then there was Trump…

  • Super Tuesday Open Thread! Let the hyperbole, wrong predictions and GFYs begin!

  • Biden up ‘only’ 18 in CA. Trump way up in IA. Biden by 1 in PA.

    CALIFORNIA – LA Times/U of C-Berkeley Trump 34 Biden 52 Five Candidates: Trump 28 Biden 40 Kennedy 11 West 3 Stein 2 Feb. 22-26; 6,536 RV IOWA – Selzer/Des Moines Register Trump 48 Biden 33 Feb. 25-28; 640 LV PENNSYLVANIA – Axis Research Biden 40 Trump 39 Kennedy 8 Stein 2 West 1 Feb. 25-27;…

  • Thanks to DW (and despite me), HHR is back as a polling site.

  • Wyoming Polls

    Presidential Polls – Wyoming: Polling AVERAGE 66 27.5 38.5 FINAL RESULTS: 71.6 25.8 45.8 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap Cygnal 10/26-10/28; 600 LV 69 27 +42 University of Wyoming 9/24-10/27; 662 LV 63 28 +35 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21; 249 LV 66.9 25.9 +41 Emerson 10/4/23 68 15 +53

  • West Virginia Polls

    Presidential Polls – West Virginia: AVERAGE Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap Research America 8/21-8/27; 400 RV 61 34 +27 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Kaplan 6/4; 464 LV 55 28 +27 Zogby 4/13-4/21; 383 LV 62.7 31.3 +31.4 Emerson 10/4/23 59 23 +36

  • Washington Polls

    Presidential Polls – Washington: AVERAGE 37.7 57.0 3.0 19.3 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 39 54 +15 ActiVote 10/3-10/29; 400 LV 41 59 +18 Public Policy Polling 10/16-10/17; 571 LV 40 55 +15 Elway Research 10/8-10/12; 401 LV 32 57 +25 SurveyUSA 10/9-10/14; 703 LV 35 57 +22…

  • Utah Polls

    Presidential Polls – Utah: AVERAGE 57.0 37.0 20.0 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap ActiVote 10/7-10/30; 400LV 60 40 +20 Noble Predictive Insights 10/25-10/28; 695LV 54 34 3 +20 HarrisX 10/15-10/19;813 RV 63 31 6 +32 Noble Predictive Insights 10/2-10/7; 539 LV 54 36 +18 Public Policy Polling 9/27-9/28; 612 LV 54 39 +15…

  • Tennessee Polls

    Presidential Polls – Tennessee: AVERAGE X 59.0 36.5 22.5 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap ActiVote 10/5-10/28; 400 LV 62 38 +24 ActiVote 9/24-10/16; 400 LV 62 38 +24 Targoz Market Research 9/27-10/8; 1,200 LV 56 35 +21 ActiVote 7/25-9/2; 400 LV 63 37 +26 Pollster Dates/Sample Gap Trump Biden Ken. Gap Final Average…

  • Trump wins in SCOTUS. Per curium, SCOTUS tells Colorado to suck it.

  • South Dakota Polls

    Presidential Polls – South Dakota: AVERAGE 60.5 34 26.5 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap The Hill/Emerson 10/19-10/22; 825 LV 3.3 62 35 +27 Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 10/12-10/16;500 RV 59 33 +26 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Ken. Gap Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy 5/10-5/13; 500 RV 50 31 11 +19 Zogby 4/13-4/21; 303 LV…

  • Oklahoma Polls

    Presidential Polls – Oklahoma: AVERAGE 64.8 34.4 30.4 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap ActiVote 10/3-10/29; 400 LV 67 33 +34 WPA Intelligence 10/16-10/18; 502 LV 65 29 +36 ActiVote 9/13-10/19; 400 LV 66 34 +32 SoonerPoll 8/24-8/31; 323 LV 56 40 +16 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21; 391 LV 52.9 39.8 +13.1 Emerson…

  • Nebraska Polls

    Presidential Polls – Nebraska: AVERAGE 55.5 38.8 16.8 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap Change Research 10/30-10/31; 600 LV 57 39 +18 Economist/YouGov 10/21-10/28; 1220 LV 55 40 +15 The New York Times/Siena College 10/23-10/26; 1,194 LV 53 39 +14 Change Research 10/18-10/21; 815 LV 55 41 +14 Torchlight Strategies 10/5-10/8; 600 LV 57 37 +20…

  • North Dakota Polls

    Presidential Polls – North Dakota: AVERAGE Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap WPA Intelligence 9/28-9/30; 500 LV 59 32 +27 Lake Research Partners 9/23-9/26; 500 LV 50 40 +10 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Public Opinion Strategies 6/15-6/19; 500 LV 62 28 +34 Zogby 4/13-4/21; 300 LV 55.4 36.6 +18.8 Emerson 10/14/23 54 17 +37

  • Kentucky Polls

    Presidential Polls – Kentucky: Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21; 248 LV 59.6 34.9 +24.7 Emerson 10/2/23 55 26 +29

  • Kansas Polls

    Presidential Polls – Kansas: Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap Docking Institute 9/26-10/16; RVs 48 43 +5 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21; 410 LV 48.9 43.9 +5 Emerson 10/4/23 47 31 +16

  • Indiana Polls

    Presidential Polls – Indiana: AVERAGE 57.0 40.7 16.3 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap ActiVote 10/3-10/28; 400 LV 58 42 +16 ARW Strategies 9/23-9/25; 600 LV 55 39 +16 ActiVote 8/28-9/30; 400 LV 57 43 +14 Emerson 9/12-9/13; LV 58 41 +17 Lake Research Partners 8/26-9/2; 600 LV 52 42 +10 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap…

  • Idaho Polls

    Presidential Polls – Idaho: Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21: 309 LV 59.8 30.5 +29.3 Emerson 10/4/23 55 26 +29

  • Arkansas Polls

    Presidential Polls – Arkansas: Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Harris Gap Hendrix College 9/5-9/6; 696 LV 55 40 +15 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21; 385 LV 48.3 41.7 +6.6 Emerson 10/14/23 57 24 +33

  • Alabama Polls

    Presidential Polls – Alabama: AVERAGE 58.8 33.5 25.3 Pollster Dates/Sample Trump Biden Gap Zogby 4/13-4/21; 513 LV 59.8 32.3 +27.5 Florida Atlantic University 2/29-3/3; 179 LV 57 38 +19 WPA Intelligence 8/23-8/26/23; 500 RV 57 32 +25

  • Post away!

  • Alaska Polls

    Presidential Polls – Alaska: AVERAGE X 54 44 2.0 10.0 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Alaska Survey Research 10/20-10/22; 1,703 LV 55 45 +10 Alaska Survey Research 10/8-10/9; 1,254 LV 54 46 +8 Alaska Survey Research 9/27-9/29; 1,182 LV 2.9 52 43 6 +9 Alaska Survey Research 9/11-9/12; 1,254 LV 47 42 4…

  • Massachusetts Polls

    Presidential Polls – Massachusetts: AVERAGE X 33.0 61.5 3.1 28.5 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap University of New Hampshire 10/29-11/2; 744 LV 34 60 4 +26 MassINC Polling Group 10/29-11/1; 582LV 31 61 3 +30 Emerson 10/24-10/26; 1,000 LV 36 59 +23 ActiVote 10/2-10/30; 400LV 34 66 +33 ActiVote 9/6-10/16; 400 LV 33…

  • Missouri Polls

    Presidential Polls – Missouri: AVERAGE 55.7 43.3 12.4 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth. Gap Research Co. 11/2-11/3; 450 LV 54 39 +15 Remington Research Group 10/28-10/29; 721 LV 54 40 2 +14 ActiVote 10/6-10/27; 400 LV 58 42 +16 ActiVote 9/8-10/10; 400 LV 57 43 +14 Emerson 9/12-9/13; 850 LV 3.0 55 43 +12…

  • Maryland Polls

    Presidential Polls – Maryland: AVERAGE X 33.6 61.8 2.9 28.2 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Trump Harris Oth Gap Morning Consult 10/23-11/1;472 LV 31 64 +33 Chism Strategies 10/28-10/30;510 LV 33 56 1 +23 University of Maryland 10/23-10/27; 500 LV 34 61 2 +27 ActiVote 10/6-10/30; 400 LV 37 64 +28 The Washington Post/University of Maryland 10/17-10/22;…