The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

Weekend thread… if you are an ISIS terrorist, watch out for Trump. If you are a captured lobster, watch out for Somali hijackers.

AI isn’t ready for prime time. I asked it to create an image of a Nativity scene. The first try had Mary looking way too healthy for having just given birth to a 1 year old toddler, as shown in the image. A second try looked goofy. The third try had the head of baby…

Thursday night open thread

According to Siena College, 12/8-12/12; 801 RV; 4.1 MoE NEW YORK Stefanik 30 Hochul 49

This according to Emerson College, 12/6 – 12/8; 850 RV; 3.3 MoE OHIO Husted 49 Brown 46

According to Pan Atlantic Research | 11/29-12/7 | 820 LV MAINE Collins 42 Platner 43 Collins 43 Mills 43

According to PPP, 599 RVs, 11/20-21, 4.1 MoE MI-04 Bill Huizenga 44 Sean McCann 42

Saturday night fights

According to PPP-D 11/18-19; 549 RV; 4.4 MoE PA-10 Scott Perry 44 Janelle Stelson 48

Thursday night thread

According to MIRS/Mitchell Research 11/18 – 11/21, 616 LV, 3.7 MoE MICHIGAN Rogers 42 Stevens 40 Same poll has Steven with edge for Dem primary: Stevens 27, McMorrow 24, El-Sayed 16.

No polls today, and given all the nasty things said over the weekend in the last thread, I hereby declare today, December 1, 2025 a day of peace and reflection. Please refrain from saying nasty and hateful things to others who post here. If that means you cannot post anything at all, then take the…

Weekend open thread

Happy Thanksgiving

A potential pickup opportunity in New Hampshire according to St. Anselm, a B rated pollster, 11/18 – 11/19 2112 RV 2.1 NEW HAMPSHIRE Sununu 41 Pappas 44

Saturday night thread

According to new polling from Ragnar Research, 11/12-11/17 LV. TEXAS Cornyn 47 Allred 40 Cornyn 46 Talarico 40 Cornyn’s primary challenger Paxton tied with Talarico and trails Allred by one in same poll.

Here is the full statement: “Cherfilus-McCormick, 46, and her brother Edwin Cherfilus, 51, both of Miramar, worked through their family health-care company on a FEMA-funded COVID-19 vaccination staffing contract in 2021. In July 2021, the company received an overpayment of $5 million in FEMA funds. The indictment alleges that the defendants conspired to steal that…

Cygnal, 11/12 – 11/13; 605 LV, 4.0 MoE ALABAMA Tuberville 53 Jones 34

According to Siena College, 11/10 – 11/12 802 RV 4.0, this compared to the most recent poll from the Manhattan Institute, 10/22 – 10/26 900 LV 3.3 who had Stefanik ahead 1. NEW YORK Stefanik 32 Hochul 52 The poll does represent a 5 point improvement for Stefanik compared to Siena’s prior poll.

According to EPIC-MRA 11/6 – 11/11; 600 RV; MoE 4.0 MICHIGAN Rogers 42 Stevens 44

According to Emerson – 11/8-11/10 850 RV ARIZONA Biggs 43 Hobbs 44 Same poll has Biggs running away with the GOP primary: Biggs 50, Taylor Robson 17, Schweikert 8

The 2026 race for control of the US House of Representatives currently gives the Democrats a slight edge. 197 Safe GOP Margin Flip 198 TX-9 8.2 Flip GOP 199 TX-32 7.2 Flip GOP 200 TX-35 7.2 Flip GOP 201 OH-9 6.7 Flip GOP 202 NC-1 6.2 Flip GOP 203 ME-2 5.3 Flip GOP 204 IA-1…

It’s early, but looks like Dems well on the way to flip Tillis’ seat. NORTH CAROLINA Whatley 38 Cooper 47 Carolina Journal/Harper 11/9 – 11/10 600 LV 4.0

MAINE Collins 45.8 Mills 41.7 Collins 40.9 Platner 44.8 Poll by Maine’s People Resource Center, Oct 26-29, 2025 — N=783 Same poll has Platner up two in Democrat Primary.

United States Senate GEORGIA GEORGIA 41.3 42.7 +1.4 Pollster Dates/Sample MoE Collins Ossoff Gap Quantus Insights 9/9 – 9/12 624 RV 4.0 38 38 0 TIPP 7/28 – 8/1 2956 RV 1.8 44 45 +1 Cygnal 5/15 – 5/17 800 LV 3.4 43 46 +3 Trafalgar 4/24 – 4/27 1426 LV 2.9 43 48 +5…

Schumer shutdown Over. All Government hostages Released. Ayatollah Democrats Furious over Trump Victory.

“And that’s the way it is, November 9, 2025, the 39th day of captivity for the American government by Chuck Schumer.”

“And that’s the way it is, November 8, 2025, the 38th day of captivity for the American government by Chuck Schumer.”

“And that’s the way it is, November 7, 2025, the 37th day of captivity for the American government by Chuck Schumer.”