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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.


  • Monday Morning After Incredible Rescue
  • Good Friday for those who Observe it
  • No Trouble for GOP in Florida
  • Breaking: Oak Island Treasure Found!
  • Hochul up 13 in New York
  • 2024 Election Polling Grades
  • 2024 Polling Aggregator
  • Walt’s List of Trump’s Achievements

Trump Job Approval

Pollsters wrong in 2024:41.6 / 55.6-14.0
Pollsters right in 2024:45.5 / 52.1-6.6

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrats +21207228

2026 Senate Forecast

OHTXMIGANHMEMNNC
Gap+1.4+1.2+1.8+1.4+4.5+5.6+7.0+7.5
Count5051494847464544
  • Despite Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons, HHR is not shutting down!

    March 14, 2024
  • Trump up in OH, but Georgia is close

    According to Emerson and YouGov/CBS News: OHIO – Emerson Trump 55 Biden 45 Five candidates: Trump 47 Biden 38 Kennedy 6 Stein 1 West 1 3/7 – 3/10; 1,300 RV GEORGIA – CBS News/YouGov Trump 51 Biden 48 3/4 – 3/11; 1,126 LV

    March 13, 2024
  • Just mailing it in.

    March 13, 2024
  • Another new North Carolina poll

    This one from Cygnal: NORTH CAROLINA – Cygnal Trump 45 Biden 40 North Carolina Governor: Robinson 44 Stein 39 March 6-7; 600 LV

    March 12, 2024
  • Trump with edge in North Carolina and Georgia

    According to SurveyUSA and Emerson NORTH CAROLINA – SurveyUSA Trump 50 Biden 45 North Carolina Governor: Robinson 42 Stein 44 3/3 – 3/9; 598 LV GEORGIA – Emerson/The Hill Trump 52 Biden 48 Five Candidates: Trump 44 Biden 37 Kennedy 5 West 2 Stein 1 3/5 – 3/7; 1,000 RV

    March 12, 2024
  • Tuesday!

    March 12, 2024
  • Sen. Hawley cruising to re-election in MO.

    According to Remington Research Group: MISSOURI – US Senate – Remington Hawley 53 Kunce 39 March 6-8; 713 LV

    March 11, 2024
  • DW failed us. No new polls.

    March 11, 2024
  • Good news. 1 less hour of listening to Biden and Trump.

    March 10, 2024
  • Klobuchar Clobbers Fraser in MN Senate Race

    According to a new poll from SurveyUSA: MINNESOTA – US Senate – SurveyUSA Klobuchar 49 Fraser 33 2/23 – 2/28; 1,603 LV

    March 9, 2024
  • Until there are polls…

    March 9, 2024
  • Trump leads in ALASKA

    ALASKA – Data for Progress Trump 53 Biden 41 Feb. 23-March 2; 1,120 LV

    March 8, 2024
  • Time for those who did not watch the speeches to opine…

    March 8, 2024
  • State of the Union Address Open Thread.

    March 7, 2024
  • 11 states polled by FAU.

    But beware the tiny sample sizes: VIRGINIA – Florida Atlantic University Trump 42 Biden 49 Feb. 29-March 3; 368 LV VERMONT – Florida Atlantic University Trump 28 Biden 59 Feb. 29-March 3; 111 LV UTAH – Florida Atlantic University Trump 46 Biden 38 Feb. 29-March 3; 166 LV TEXAS – Florida Atlantic University Trump 51…

    March 7, 2024
  • Trump way up in IN, Biden with edge in MN

    According to Emerson, and SurveyUSA: INDIANA – Emerson/The Hill Trump 55 Biden 34 3/2 – 3/5; 1,000 RV MINNESOTA – SurveyUSA Trump 38 Biden 42 2/23-3/28; 1,603 LV

    March 7, 2024
  • You know the drill. Post away.

    March 7, 2024
  • As promised,,,New thread!

    March 6, 2024
  • Trump cruising in MONTANA, senate race close.

    According to Emerson: MONTANA – Emerson/The Hill Trump 56 Biden 35 Five candidates: Trump 49 Biden 28 Kennedy 8 Stein 1 West 1 US Senate: Tester 44 Sheehy 42 2/26 – 3/2; 1,000 RV

    March 6, 2024
  • And then there was Trump…

    March 6, 2024
  • Super Tuesday Open Thread! Let the hyperbole, wrong predictions and GFYs begin!

    March 5, 2024
  • Biden up ‘only’ 18 in CA. Trump way up in IA. Biden by 1 in PA.

    CALIFORNIA – LA Times/U of C-Berkeley Trump 34 Biden 52 Five Candidates: Trump 28 Biden 40 Kennedy 11 West 3 Stein 2 Feb. 22-26; 6,536 RV IOWA – Selzer/Des Moines Register Trump 48 Biden 33 Feb. 25-28; 640 LV PENNSYLVANIA – Axis Research Biden 40 Trump 39 Kennedy 8 Stein 2 West 1 Feb. 25-27;…

    March 5, 2024
  • Thanks to DW (and despite me), HHR is back as a polling site.

    March 5, 2024
  • Trump wins in SCOTUS. Per curium, SCOTUS tells Colorado to suck it.

    March 4, 2024
  • Post away!

    March 4, 2024
  • North Carolina favors Trump over Biden

    According to High Point University, who didn’t actually use the candidate’s names in this part of their poll: NORTH CAROLINA – High Point University Trump* 47 Biden* 41 2/16 – 2/23; 753 LV. *Poll used “Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate.”

    March 3, 2024
  • New thread. New week.

    March 3, 2024
  • Battlegrounds close according to “FocalData”

    I am debating whether or not to include these polls in the Aggregator simply because these polls are online only, and there are no undecideds or third-party selections among the likely voter samples. NEVADA – FocalData Trump 51 Biden 49 January 17-23; Likely Voters ARIZONA – FocalData Trump 50 Biden 50 January 17-23; Likely Voters…

    March 2, 2024
  • Who wants to be first?

    March 2, 2024
  • Biden with edge in VIRGINIA

    VIRGINIA – Roanoke College Biden 47 Trump 43 2/11-2/19; 703 RV

    March 1, 2024
  • Vic?

    March 1, 2024
  • Tight race in Texas?

    Yes, if you believe the University of Texas at Tyler: TEXAS – University of Texas at Tyler Trump 46 Biden 42 US Senate Cruz 41 Allred 41 February 18-26; 1,167 RV

    February 29, 2024
  • Found: State where Biden still leads

    According to Emerson College: CALIFORNIA – Emerson College/The Hill Biden 57 Trump 35 Feb. 24-27; 1,000 LV

    February 29, 2024
  • Trump leads all battleground states

    According to Morning Consult/Bloomberg: Morning Consult/Bloomberg ARIZONA Trump 49 Biden 43 2/12 – 2/20; 798 RV Morning Consult/Bloomberg GEORGIA Trump 49 Biden 43 2/12 – 2/20; 800 RV Morning Consult/Bloomberg MICHIGAN Trump 46 Biden 44 2/12 – 2/20; 702 RV Morning Consult/Bloomberg NEVADA Trump 48 Biden 42 2/12 – 2/20; 445 RV Morning Consult/Bloomberg NORTH…

    February 29, 2024
  • A thread to keep streak going.

    February 29, 2024
  • Trump up in ARIZONA

    According to Rasmussen: Rasmussen Reports – ARIZONA Trump 47 Biden 40 Feb. 21-26; 1,001 LV

    February 28, 2024
  • Lake leads in ARIZONA senate race

    According to Rasmussen: Rasmussen – ARIZONA Senate Lake (R) 37 Lake (R) 45 Gallego (D) 33 Gallego (D) 42 Sinema (I-Inc) 21 Feb. 21-26; 1,001 LV

    February 28, 2024
  • So Democrats who don’t like Biden and Republicans who don’t like Trump voted yesterday. The sun still rose in the East. Both can be true.

    February 28, 2024
  • More MI and WI Polls

    Trump with leads and a tie: Kaplan Strategies – MICHIGAN Kaplan Strategies – WISCONSIN Trump 46 Trump 41 Biden 36 Biden 39 February 22-23; 1,019 RV in MI, 941 RV in WI. North Star Opinion Research – MICHIGAN Trump 43 Biden 43 February 22-25; 600 LV

    February 27, 2024
  • Trump with lead in WISCONSIN

    According to Emerson: Emerson – WISCONSIN Trump 45 Trump 41 Biden 42 Biden 37 Kennedy 7 West 1 Stein 1 2/20-2/24/2024; 1000 RV

    February 27, 2024
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The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

 

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