The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

According to newly released (but stale) polling from Navigator Research taken July 31 – Aug 8 against 600 likely voters per state: Trump Harris Other AZ 46 45 5 MI 44 44 6 NC 46 46 4 PA 46 44 7 WI 45 45 8

According to a new poll by Roanoke College taken 8/12 – 8/16 against 691 LVs with a MoE of 4.5: VIRGINIA Trump 42 Harris 45 Kennedy 6 West 2 U.S. Senate: Cao 38 Kaine 49

According to a new poll from Saint Anselm College Survey Center taken Aug. 13-14 against 1,656 RVs: NEW HAMPSHIRE Trump 44 Harris 51 Kennedy 2

According to top rated pollster Insider Advantage, who polled 800 likely voters on August 18-19 with an MoE of 3.46 PENNSYLVANIA Trump 47 Harris 46 Other 3

According to new polling from UK pollster Redfield and Wilton taken 8/12-8/15 against 7,598 “voters” across these 10 states, presumably Registered Voters: Trump Harris Other FL 48 43 4 NC 47 44 3 AZ 44 43 7 NV 43 42 9 MI 45 44 6 GA 46 46 3 PA 44 46 4 WI 44…

This according to new polling from Focal Data, a UK polling firm who asked a minimum of 651 Likely Voters per state, through an online only survey method conducted 8/6-8/16: Trump Harris GA 49 45 AZ 46 45 PA 47 48 NC 46 47 NV 42 48 WI 44 50 MI 44 51

According to new polling from Rasmussen Reports, taken 8/13-8/17, against over 1000 likely voters per state. Ohio: Trump 50, Harris 42, Kennedy 4, Stein 0, West 1 Brown 47, Moreno 42 Pennsylvania: Harris 46, Trump 45, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 0 Casey 46, McCormick 43 Arizona: Harris 44, Trump 45, Kennedy 7, West 1,…

Here is a line chart showing the recent gains Trump is making nationally. These are actual numbers showing the averages of the actual polling, not opinion.

According to new polling from the NY Times/Siena College: NORTH CAROLINA Trump 44 Harris 46 Others 5 8/9-8/14; 655 LV NY Times/Siena NEVADA Trump 46 Harris 44 Others 5 8/12-8/15; 677 LV NY Times/Siena GEORGIA Trump 47 Harris 44 Others 5 8/9-8/14; 661 LV NY Times/Siena ARIZONA Trump 43 Harris 47 Others 5 8/8-8/15; 677…

This one from Quantus Polls and News taken Aug. 14-15 against 601 RV and a 4.0 MoE: WISCONSIN Trump 45 Harris 46 Other 4

This one by Cygnal, and they show another tie, and Casey with the edge in the senate race. They also show Shapiro +22 on his net job approval. I Just wondEr why it Was that Harris didn’t pick him? This new poll was taken 8/14-8/15 against 800 LVs with a MoE of 3.4: PENNSYLVANIA Trump…

According to new polling from Emerson College, taken 8/13 – 8/14 against 1000 LV with a MoE of 3.0: PENNSYLVANIA Trump 49 Harris 48 With Kennedy: Trump 47.4 Harris 46.8 Kennedy 3 U.S. Senate: McCormick 44 Casey 48

According to Scott Rasmussen’s RMG Research (not to be confused with Rasmussen Reports). Poll taken 8/6-8/14; 540 RV with a ±4.2% MoE MONTANA Trump 57 Harris 39 Other 3 U.S. Senate: Sheehy 44 Tester 49 Other 2

According to a new TIPP poll done for AmGreatness, 976 LV taken 8/12-8/14 with a ±3.4 MoE: WISCONSIN Trump 47 Harris 47 Other 3 U.S. Senate: Hovde 43 Baldwin 50

According to new polling from AARP, 8/7-8/11; 600 LV; R33/D32/I35. This is polling done by Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D): MICHIGAN Trump 45 Harris 43 Kennedy 6 Stein 1 West 1 U.S. Senate: Rogers 44 Slotkin 47

I say up only 3 because the same pollster had Biden over Trump in PA back in January by a margin of 42 to 37, and again Biden leading in March by two, 42 to 40. So my expectation for this poll was Harris +5 or more. Their final 2020 poll was Trump 44, Biden…

Fox News: 🟥 Donald Trump: 50%🟦 Kamala Harris: 49% Pew Research: 🟦 Harris: 46%🟥 Trump: 45%🟨 RFK Jr: 7%🟪 Other: 1% Economist/YouGov: 🟦 Harris: 46% [+1]🟥 Trump: 44% [+1]🟨 RFK Jr: 3%🟪 Other: 2% J. L. Partners: 🟥 Trump: 43%🟦 Harris: 41%🟨 RFK Jr: 5%🟪 Other: 2% Democracy Corps (D) / YouGov Blue (D) 🟦…

According to a new poll from Quinnipiac University whose last poll of PA in 2020 found Biden ahead 51 to 44 over Trump. This new poll was taken Aug. 8-12 against1,738 LVs. PENNSYLVANIA Trump 45 Harris 48 U.S. Senate: McCormick 44 Casey 52

According to same American Pulse Research & Polling poll that also showed Sheehy up 6 points. Aug. 10-12, 538 RV: MONTANA Trump 52 Harris 38 Other 8

According to a new American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 538 RVs taken Aug. 10-12: MONTANA Sheehy 51 Tester 45

According to new polling by McLaughlin and Associates taken 8/6-8/8 against 800 likely voters. FLORIDA Trump 52 Harris 44 Kennedy 3 U.S. Senate: Scott 52 Mucarsel-Powell 42

according to a new poll by ActiVote done against only 400 likely voters, and a long span of time, 7/31-8/13, and it has a 4.9 MoE. TEXAS Trump 53.3 Harris 46.7

According to Suffolk University USA Today/Suffolk poll taken 8/7-8/11 against 500 likely voters. This same pollster found the race in Florida tied in 2020. FLORIDA Trump 47 Harris 42 Others 7

According to a new poll from ActiVote taken over a long span of 7/20-8/12 against only 400 Likely voters. This race has been tightening, with the last four polls in a row ranging from a 4-6 point Brown lead. OHIO Moreno 47 Brown 52

At Rasmussen reports, Mark Mitchell has been mocking other pollsters for their sudden stoppage in releasing new polls. Will see what happens when they finally post something. Meanwhile, here are the numbers nationally, according to Rasmussen:

Best U2 song.

Polling by Siena College done August 6-9 against likely voters Trump trails head to head 46 to 50 in all three states, and with the others included: WI: Harris 49, Trump 43, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 0 MI: Harris 48, Trump 43, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0 PA: Harris 46, Trump 44, Kennedy…

According to new polling from Trafalgar Group (NV, NC, AZ, and PA, 1000 LV each) and InsiderAdvantage (MI and WI, 800 LV each) from August 6-8: Trump Harris ARIZONA 48 47 NEVADA 48 45 NORTH CAROLINA 49 45 PENNSYLVANIA 46 44 WISCONSIN 49 48 MICHIGAN 47 49

Perhaps so. The chart below tracked daily the average of all national polls, and it seems now the numbers are settling back into the same range of Trump vs. Biden prior to Biden’s debate debacle.

According to a new poll from Cygnal taken Aug. 4-5 against 600 LV with a MoE of 3.99 NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47 Harris 44 Kennedy 4 Oliver 1 Stein 0 Terry 0

According to AARP (Fabrizio Ward-R / Impact Research-D) poll taken 7/24-7/ 31 against 600 LV: GEORGIA Trump 46 Harris 44 Kennedy 4 West 2 Stein 1

Sheehy up 2 in this new Emerson College poll taken August 5-6 against 1000 RVs: MONTANA Trump 55 Harris 40 Five Candidates: Trump 54 Harris 39 Kennedy 5 Stein 0 West 0 U.S. Senate: Sheehy 48 Tester 46