New Book:
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrat +15 | 210 | 225 |
Here is where Schumer and Jeffries get their orders….
DEMOCRATIC (DSA) Party Platform:
Strip Americans of all their hard-earned resources and retirement savings, forcing them to live hand-to-mouth, and then replace Americans by blowing all their money on illegals brought in from every cesspool country in the world; resulting in the USA becoming a Marxist third world country dominated by crime, injustice, and corruption.
According to Quantus Insights
10/26 – 10/28; 1221 LV; 3.2 MoE
US Senate
🟦 James Talarico: 48%
🟥 Ken Paxton: 49%
——
Governor
🟥 Greg Abbott (inc): 52%
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 46%
Gas price during Trump’s war against Iran. — Gas price after Dem’s war against fuel.
83 responses to “Paxton Up 1 in Texas”
First.
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I find it hard to believe that Paxton is only 3% behind Abbott in support. I also do not understand a voter who would say I will vote for Abbott but not Paxton (even though he sucks).
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well quantus is saying Abbott is up 6 while Paxton is up 1, so a five point gap, but yeah, lets vote to keep Abbott doing a great job, but at the same time, lets vote to get a federal government to stop Abbott from doing a great job.
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but I have never seen so many polls with such vast ticket splitting before.
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Lichtman is a moron, his “keys” suck.
Like Nate Silverhack, he was right until he wasn’t.
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The ticket-splitting reflects the success the Cornyn and Tillis wing has had convincing a not insignificant portion of GOP voters to “teach the rest of us a lesson.” What a pair of douches.
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There is a video of him and his son live blogging the 2024 election.
Hilarious.
Then he goes on the Young Turks and gets reamed by Cenk for being wrong and ends up screaming “stop disrespecting me”.
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The ticket-splitting reflects the success the Cornyn and Tillis wing has had convincing a not insignificant portion of GOP voters to “teach the rest of us a lesson.” What a pair of douches.”
You could also say it reflects the success of the MAGAs in calling everyone not 100% pure RINOs and traitors.
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I don’t agree with Cornyn and Tillis, I think they are just helping the Marxists.
But people often react a certain way depending on how they are treated, John McCain was a prime example.
There was very little upside attacking his military service, and there was very little upside calling lifelong conservative Republicans like Cornyn and Tillis RINOS.
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The Texas election hinges on how well Paxton has been able to show Talarico for what he is.
A radical who hates Christianity, opposes fossil fuels and meat in a state dependent on fossil fuels and livestock, and favors extreme positions like there are 6 genders and men should play in girl’s sports.
Against that is Paxton’s unpopularity outside his base, his baggage, and the fact he is a uninspiring candidate in general.
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I don’t believe in stupid tariffs and trade wars. I believe the US should fully support Ukraine no matter what it costs.
That would make me a RINO if I was still a Republican.
The fact I support 90% of Trump’s agenda would not matter.
I could be offended and not vote, or I could vote for a Dem. That wouldn’t happen in my case, but it may in others.
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I find it hard to believe that Paxton is only 3% behind Abbott in support.”
Yeah I think Abbott needs to win by at least 5 for Paxton to win.
But I think that is entirely possible.
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daugherty: BREAKING: Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd and AG James Uthmeier just announced the arrest of 31 people who traveled to have S*X WITH CHILDREN, and a total of 281 PREDATOR ARRESTS
17 of them were THEME PARK employees: “Who led the way? Disney! 13 Disney, Universal had 4.”
My gosh.
JUDD: “Those that showed up up had a total of 798 previous criminal charges. In addition to that, we gave them 488 new charges just to take with them as kind of a present.”
“Guess who he showed up to have sx with? A 14 year old little girl. The talk that he he used was so graphic that we obviously can’t release that to you here today…he said he can pick her up at school, then we can have sx in the car.”
LAW AND ORDER IN FLORIDA.
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Paxton is unpopular enough to be 5 points behind Abbott. The negative ads against Abbott are typical (helps big business). And Abbott did piss some people off with school choice.
However, Paxton is really unpopular. The Texas Senate should have convicted him at the impeachment hearing.
There will be many people to blame if Paxton loses, but one is Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick who told the R senators not to convict.
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Abbot will win by at least 5 here in Texas. Hopefully that is enough to drag Paxton over the line. It will be close, however. Abbott will win for sure. How do I know? Advertising. Hinajosa ads are non-existent. If she had a shot Democrats would be putting money into her campaign. They aren’t.
Paxton needs to stay within 10 with indies and hold Republican defections to less than 10%. I don’t know. Will be close.
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I threw this story out there about a month ago, but I’ll repeat it. My brother-in-law former Republican county judge in Kaufman County told me he won’t vote for Paxton – that he’s a criminal and an adulterer. I told him that was half the senate. So what? Don’t look at my brother-in-law as a barometer or anything because he hates MAGA and voted for Biden. How did that turn out? Trump won Texas by over 11. He’s a big establishment Republican (yes, RINO all the way – said he hopes Talarico won’t do much damage in the senate. Really? In what world? LOL
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New Generic Ballot poll by Pennsylvania State University McCourtney Institute for Democracy/YouGov
DEM 47%
GOP 43%
Same gap as Harvard/Harris
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I know a lot of people like txphil’s brother-in-law. Urban and suburban Republicans who don’t even want to hold their noses.
I have persuaded a few by reminding them that Paxton allowed the schools to open during Covid. While, Talarico would have kept the schools shuttered.
I am surprised that Paxton never ran on that. It is a winning issue for people with children (especially who were kids during Covid).
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Phil,
I recall your anecdote. Call him back and say to him he is dead to you if he doesn’t care enough to save the country, hold his nose, and vote Paxton.
This is literally America’s last chance. No way to REMOVE statehood of D.C. and Guam, or to un-pack the SCOTUS.
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Noble Predictive Insights:
Hobbs 51, Biggs 45
Their prior poll was Hobbs +13
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I know, DW. It makes me want to beat my head against the wall. He’s oblivious to the consequences of Democrats getting control of all three branches of the government. He’s hopeless though.
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Tell your brother-in-law that you will recommend to your sister divorce him for endangering her life and the life of everyone.
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You can vote socialists into power, but you always end up having to shoot yourself out. See Brazil. Venezuela another examole. Once they gain power they will use any means to retain it. They’ll cheat, change the rules, redo the institutions….whatever it takes.
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Phil, Yep, this is why I posted the DSA platform on the main page:
DEMOCRATIC (DSA) Party Platform:
Strip Americans of all their hard-earned resources and retirement savings, forcing them to live hand-to-mouth, and then replacing Americans by blowing all that money on illegals brought in from every cesspool country in the world; resulting in the USA becoming a third world country dominated by crime, injustice, and corruption.
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And I consider this blog a community project. If any of you have suggestions to improve that DSA party platform statement or anything else just let me know.
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law former Republican county judge in Kaufman County”
If he voted for Biden then don’t believe he is voting for Talarico because of Paxton’s baggage.
Sounds like he switched sides long ago.
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Yeah, she’s kind of non-political, and tends to go along with whatever Hal says. She was brought up in a staunch Republican household but then so was he. Go figure.
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I think you need to add Marxism to the DSA platform.
THAT is what it is about.
You only have the consequences of what they propose, not the motive.
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He’s a big Bushie….and no, I don’t believe for a second he’s not voting for Paxton because of Paxton’s morals or lack of.
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TDS is a brutal disease.
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Oh it is a she?
Unfortunately, some women are attracted to Talarico’s effeminate demeanor.
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Ok, i now have who is a he and who is a she sorted out.
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No way to REMOVE statehood of D.C. and Guam, or to un-pack the SCOTUS.”
They will go for PR and DC. Guam is risky. Elects Republicans. Actually so does PR.
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A R could win in Guam by promising not to let it tip into the ocean!
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sorry, meant PR and wrongly typed Guam….
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GOP leading in all but six counties today in Florida in person early voting. They lead in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Duval (Jacksonville)
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Daugherty:
BREAKING: A young leftist woman is sitting in JAIL after posting that she’d SH00T President Trump at his Daytona Beach rally TODAY
FAFO. She found out.
Allison Albro reportedly posted a selfie with the caption: “Going to the trump rally in my city tmr so I can sh⚠️t him with my glock! wish me luck guys!!”
Within hours, the Volusia Sheriff’s Domestic Security Unit and the Secret Service were at her door
She claimed it was a “joke,” said she doesn’t have a firearm, and said she’d never hurt anyone. Yeah, OK.
She’s now charged with written threats to k*ll and unlawful use of a communications device.
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Once the Dems get full power, Allison Albro will be awarded the congressional medal of honor.
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We now have a poll of the Illinois senate race where the Republican is down only 11. Better shape than our candidate in North Carolina if the polls are correct.
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fake pollster Boris now claims Paxton will win. lol.
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just his commentary Tina or did he release a poll?
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https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16252625/Christa-Pike-statement-surviving-botched-execution.html
She has been in constant pain since the execution failed? Good
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Ok, i now have who is a he and who is a she sorted out.
Another reason Jason will never be appointed by a Democrat President to SCOTUS.
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If she is really in pain for the rest of her life then I support a commutation of sentence.
Suffering is worse than death.
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Pravda would be proud.
This is how Dana Bash led off her ‘reporting’ today on the Democrats’ ‘Dan Sullivan’ election scheme in Alaska.
“Unsurprisingly, [Trump] seized on the new reporting.”
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Just his commentary, dw.
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Another reason Jason will never be appointed by a Democrat President to SCOTUS”
Well, I do have some things going for me.
I was “foreign born”. Hispanic. I am not qualified. Those are 3 pluses right there.
I know not being illegal and not a criminal would also hurt my chances but maybe I can come up with something.
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it seems like they are going toward a drat plus 4. But with 35 most competitive rates it’s probably a pick ‘em
@OpenSourceZone
2026 Generic congressional ballot Democrats: 47% Republicans: 43% Penn State/YouGov poll | 10/14-10/20 LV
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Most of the Senate races were tightening on the RCP averages until the CNN polls.
Even so, Talarico is now only 1.8 over Paxton.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/texas/talarico-vs-paxton
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A D +4 would win the Dems about 10-12 seats in the House and maybe 2 in the Senate.
It would be a great outcome at this point.
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GOP clearly having its best day so far in early in person voting in Florida. Will soon reach a total early voting (in person and mail) lead of 100,000. Need to keep piling it on to build up as much of a firewall as possible before Tuesday.
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“Conservative ” Peggy Noonan wants a big blue wave.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-case-for-a-historic-wave-c11a0a92?st=iHN6Ti
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How old is Peggy Noonan, like 97 or something? She obviously has dementia if she says she wants permanent Marxism, injustice, crime, corruption, and 90% of the population living in poverty.
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Where did you see Baris’ commentary on the Texas race? I have trouble believing he said that.
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Baris’ poll of Texas done a while ago had Paxton down only 2
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The Bee strikes again. Spell “woman.”
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GOP’s firewall is now 100,505 in Florida. Hopefully it will grow more before election day.
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No, Tina. Unfortunately, Baris has not said that about the Paxton race. You can’t cite from anywhere that he said that. I wish it were so. If you can I stand corrected.
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Noonan is a conservative. Trump never was. Trump is anti-Dem but still not conservative. I don’t want Dems to win as part of some long range recovery for the GOP. You fight the battle you are in.
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https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-913354
Today’s feel good story. Bunu hardest hit.
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Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., criticized New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed over their views on Israel Thursday, calling their positions “wrong” and saying they did not reflect congressional Democrats.”
Sorry, Nancy, too little too late, the genie is out of the bottle.
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“they did not reflect congressional Democrats.”
Which congressional Democrats? Nancy, please tell us why during Trumps SOTU speech, all of the Dem caucus kept looking up to Omar (or whatever her real name is) and Tlaib?
They were looking to see if they had permission to clap or not.
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Gas here is $3.74
Diesel is $5.75.
I did not fill up. If I did prices would fall farther…
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Driving…tune into a fox station covering a Trump speech to boost R candidates.
I can only take about 5 minutes of Trump. I could listen for hours to Ronald Reagan.
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Rumor has it that Illian Omar is calling Obama to see if he still has the number for that birth certificate guy.
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Yesterday in Florida the GOP had a good day, but it took until 8:00 p.m. to reach a 31,403 gain on Dems in ballots cast in person. Today at 2:20 p.m., The GOP has passed that mark.
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Grayhouse poll:
Hobbs 50%
Biggs 45%
Hopefully this tightening will help us in the vulnerable house seats in Arizona.
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In Illinois, I haven’t seen a single ad from the Republican running for Senate.
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If IL is resting at its rough partisan baseline, hard to see a nationwide blue wave. I think we’ll see Dem overperformance in some localized/regional contests, but falling short elsewhere. Polling out of NY has broadly looked like a baseline as well, so looks to Dems to put up solid numbers in the upper Midwest and perhaps in some traditionally ruby red places but still come up short in the latter. CA is also loooking close to baseline, unless the polling is undersampling Dems out here.
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IPSOS generic ballot
Dem 50%
Rep 44%
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In Florida GOP already has reached yesterday’s total vote count, while Dems are 10,600 behind their count from yesterday.
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Republicans to control the Senate is now at 29% on Kalshi. Some money to be made if you disagree.
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last three generic ballot polls that came out today were Dem +4, +6, and +7. Not like the +10 to +14 pollsters were pumping out a few weeks ago.
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Might s well get it started…
2026
ELECTION PREDICTIONS
*******************
(I AM FENG ROSY)
House D 230+2 other R 203
Senate D 47 R 53
*****
10 Senate close races:
ME R Collins
NH D Pappas
SC. R
OH D Brown
MI. R
MN R Tafoya
IA. R Hinson
KS. R Marshall
TX. R Paxton
AK R.
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I am feeling rosy…
I have no clue as to governor races.
********
in WV I figure the Ds will go from current 9 seats to improve to 15 total in the 100 member House of Delegates and from current 2 out of 34 state senators to 3 total D after election.
Both R H of R CDs safe for R incumbents, but D candidates will each get @ 40%
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Walt, I can put up an official prediction contest thread, but will have to work on it over the weekend.
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DW,
Sounds good.
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Big Data / Baris has Moody +7 in Florida
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I like Walt’s predictions.
Walt has a good track record.
He correctly predicted George Washington would win both the 1789 and 1792 elections.
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However, Walt did lose money on his bet that the Electoral College would not be unanimous in 1788-1789.
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https://www.dailymail.com/sport/college-football/article-16253931/bill-belichick-jordon-hudson-split.html
Damn. I guess you can’t believe in love any more.
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Whatever you think about Baris (and I think less and less of him) he DOES poll Florida better than anyone. On the number in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Moody by 7 in Florida? That’s not great against an avowed socialist in a state like Florida. She should be blowing her out by double digits.
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loser Haley Stevens threatens to pull support for Abdul
https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/2116353227872686273
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