The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Democrat +15210225

2026 Senate Forecast

SCIAKSMEMIAKTXOHMNNH
Gap+3.5+2.5+2+2+2+1+0.5+2+3+5
Count46474849505152484746

Here is where Schumer and Jeffries get their orders….

DEMOCRATIC (DSA) Party Platform:

Strip Americans of all their hard-earned resources and retirement savings, forcing them to live hand-to-mouth, and then replacing Americans by blowing all that money on illegals brought in from every cesspool country in the world; resulting in the USA becoming a third world country dominated by crime, injustice, and corruption.

Wednesday Polling

DW

OHIO – SENATE

🟥 Husted: 44%
🟦 Brown: 47%

Suffolk 10/21-10/26; 500 LV

NYTimes/Siena is going with the Blue Tsunami narrative, but even they couldn’t give Nixon a rescue poll:

MINNESOTA – SENATE

🟦 Flanagan 54
🟥 Tafoya 40

SOUTH CAROLINA – SENATE

🟥 Graham Nordone 48
🟦 Andrews 48

FLORIDA – SENATE

🟥 Moody 50
🟦 Nixon 44

The Citadel has better news in SC:

🟥 Graham Nordone 43
🟦 Andrews 39

Finally, the worst gas lighter in Florida, St. Pete Polls has essentially conceded the races there, and remember they put their thumb on the scale for 8 points skewed to Harris two years ago:

FLORIDA – SENATE

🟥 Moody 49
🟦 Nixon 44

🟥 Donalds 48
🟦 Jolly 46

40 responses to “Wednesday Polling”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First.

    I would have stayed too.

    GFY

    Uh oh. I changed my mind and gave notice. Boss is pissed.

    The main factor was there are 2 partners in their late 60s and 3 associates (including me). That means I am essentially funding 1/3 of their semi-retired lifestyle. I don’t know if my current firm will be in business in 2 years. The new firm is larger and does not seem to be going anywhere. I am 58 and don’t want to be looking in 2 years.

    Like

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I can also add my wife to the new firm’s health insurance if she retires at 62 in 4 years. I have been on my wife’s insurance for 30 years because most plans sucked where I was at different jobs.

    Like

  3. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    The implication is that Rocky is gay.

    Rocky was a space alien made of rocks. Not sure how they reproduce.

    Like

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    Bolsonaro has landed in Florida. Now Trump needs to get him to address the nation to explain that this is what happens when a nation goes communist. Elections are a joke, and opposition leaders are thrown into prison unless they first escape.

    Like

  5. DW Avatar
    DW

    🚨 HOLY SMOKES. Trump UN Ambassador Mike Waltz just WENT BERSERK at the Cuban official who tried INTIMIDATING him in the middle of his remarks

    “BACK AWAY. THIS ISN’T HAVANA. You’re NOT gonna intimidate ME! Do you understand who you’re dealing with? This is AMERICA…SIT DOWN.”

    🔥🔥🔥

    “I’m the representative of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA — BACK UP!”

    “You can bring as many people as you want, PLEASE SIT DOWN.”

    The moderator got flustered! The UN is a total crapshow!

    I think these Cuban communists just KNOW what is coming. Rubio told Cubans to partner with the CIA, and they’re shook now.— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 27, 2026

    Like

  6. DW Avatar
    DW

    Click the link above to see the video clip…its must watch TV.

    Like

  7. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Bitter,

    Good move!

    Seems like your current bosses quickly admitted they are underpaying you.

    You gave good reasons for your deciding to change jobs.

    Wishing you the best.

    Like

  8. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Thanks, Walt. I’m not immortal. I don’t want to be looking in my early 60s if they close up shop.

    Like

  9. Jeff G. Avatar
    Jeff G.

    Tuesday is going to be a wipeout. I don’t want it to happen, but it’s going to. I think the D’s win most of the close Senate races. I am worried that this could lead to the end of the Republic. Commies don’t let something like an election boot them from power. If I’m wrong, I will delight in eating some tasty crow.

    Like

  10. DW Avatar
    DW

    I don’t think it will be as bad a wipeout as you fear.

    Like

  11. Jeff G. Avatar
    Jeff G.

    DW, I was confident two years ago because the R low-prop voters were swarming the early vote. This year, it’s the other way around. That’s my biggest concern.

    Like

  12. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Remember the Red Tsunami we were expecting in 2022? It didn’t happen because MAGA stayed home because Trump was not running. MAGA better come out now.

    Like

  13. DW Avatar
    DW

    Bitter, that’s a fair point. But in 2022 Trump was not in office and was being persecuted by Biden’s Department of Injustice. Trump is in office now, and doing rallies all over the place to rally the base, so the MAGA voters will turn out better than in 2022 when they were depressed.

    Like

  14. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    DW – I guess I don’t relate to voters who stay home. I always vote.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Rocky was a space alien made of rocks. Not sure how they reproduce.”

    Well, in the end the teaching little rockies so they reproduce.

    And Rocky talked a lot about his “mate” during the movie, never about any little rockies.

    So I think the inference that “he” was gay is pretty clear.

    Like

  16. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    In the end the teacher was teaching little rockies so they reproduce.

    Like

  17. DW Avatar
    DW

    Me too Bitter. I vote every time and it never occurs to me to stay home. Every election, every primary, even when almost nothing is on the ballot. Even situations where its a primary and the candidate is running unopposed. I still show up and fill in the oval. Even when the workers look at me and say, oh a voter! You are number 12 for today!

    Like

  18. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    The new firm is larger and does not seem to be going anywhere.”

    Two ways to read this…

    Like

  19. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    JeffG is always wrong so finally we have some good news on the election today.

    Like

  20. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    Oh wait, JeffG.

    Sorry.

    I thought it was JeffP.

    Like

  21. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    It will likely come down to Dems getting to 50 and then Alaska ending up in court.

    Like

  22. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    And Rocky talked a lot about his “mate” during the movie, never about any little rockies.

    So I think the inference that “he” was gay is pretty clear.

    Or “mate” was the word that translates. How long does it take to make baby rocks? You really hunt for wokeness whether it exists or not.

    Like

  23. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    I alternate in being more positive or negative for the election.

    On the negative:

    1. Party in power usually loses seats
    2. Trump below water in popularity
    3. Gas and food prices high
    4. Dems well funded and motivated

    On the positive:

    1. Dems have a lot of radicals running
    2. Blowback against socialism/DSA is real
    3. MI and TX Dem senate candidates not that popular with blacks
    4. Many of the contested races are in red areas, suggesting the IF Rs do turnout they will win.

    Like

  24. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    You really hunt for wokeness whether it exists or not.”

    LOL

    Let me fix that.

    You always make excuses for wokeness or pretend it doesn’t exist.

    Like

  25. DW Avatar
    DW

    A man in the UK is facing up to 10 years in prison for speaking out on social media against news reporters.

    Like

  26. sane_voter Avatar
    sane_voter

    Voted yesterday. Not crowded, but the polling location was well run so people got their ballot quickly. The procedure is 1) Show your drivers license, 2) sign a screen, 3) receive your paper ballot, 4) Fill out the ballot by filling ovals with a black pen, 5) Personally insert your filled out paper ballot into a scanner that confirms it was read properly while depositing it into the secured box. This is the gold standard. Too bad every state doesn’t run their elections like Florida.

    Liked by 1 person

  27. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    You always make excuses for wokeness or pretend it doesn’t exist.

    Zzzzzzzzzz

    Like

  28. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    LOL

    A third survey seems to confirm that Florida — which has trended quite Republican in the Trump era — is a second-tier target for Democrats.

    The poll shows GOP Sen. Ashley Moody leading Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon by 6 points, 50-44%. It follows a University of North Florida poll last week that put Moody up by a similar 4-point margin, 49%-45%.

    Republicans will be happy their lead remains outside the margin of error.

    But that’s still competitive.

    Like

  29. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    None of the races the Dems lead by 3 are competitive, however.

    Like

  30. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    There is a MN poll showing Flanagan up 54-40 on Tafoya.

    Like

  31. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    I’m on a rollercoaster regarding the midterm results. My sensible mind wonders how any freedom-loving American could vote for democrats, considering the policies they want to impose on people should they win. However, it’s also beyond me why “citizens” don’t vote, considering how easy it is. I think Trump is attempting to rally his base by barnstorming the country, and literally holding daily packed events. Today he will be in Ohio…again. But, with all the negativity ladled out by the Dems, the dem-captured press, and establishment republicans, I question whether it will be enough to stem the tide of opposition foisted against him and his party.

    Like

  32. DW Avatar
    DW

    yes, and that poll is in the roundup at the top of the thread.

    Like

  33. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    BTW, I’ve always voted, whether or not if I liked the candidates. It was always a binary choice – choosing the best of the lot.

    Like

  34. DW Avatar
    DW

    but all the other recent polls of MN have it exactly at 3 points. These include 2 polls done by Rasmussen, SUSA, and Traflagar. Further aged was Mason-Dixon and Morning Consult showing it a 4 point race. Even the Dem internal done by GQR had it an 8 point race. So yeah, I expect NY Times/Siena to be significantly off.

    Like

  35. DW Avatar
    DW

    two years ago St. Pete Polls said that Trump would hang on and win Florida 50/45 over Harris.

    Like

  36. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    “ BREAKING: The RNC and Michigan GOP just scored a major election integrity win in court against Michigan Sec. of State Jocelyn Benson — blocking her push to wipe out electronic pollbook records just SEVEN DAYS after her own election certification for governor”

    Like

  37. J-hole Avatar
    J-hole

    My prediction is Bitter won’t like the new law firm in a few months.

    I also predict his old law firm will still be around in 2 years.

    Like

  38. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    It is possible I am making a mistake. You left out a third prediction.

    If Bitter’s bosses who claim to value loyalty decide to close the firm, they would give no warning and just close.

    Like

  39. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I have not slept in days pondering this. I chose an opportunity over comfort (for now). A Judge told my wife that I should start looking months ago.

    I understand why my bosses are pissed since they matched the other firm and I said I was staying. I wish they had just said they could not match. But I accept I am the villain here. Maybe the new bosses will be terrible and I will regret it. Or everything will be fine.

    Like

  40. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Well, pondering is over and que sera sera (Doris Day).

    Like

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