New Book:
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrat +15 | 210 | 225 |
Here is where Schumer and Jeffries get their orders….
According to Siena:
TEXAS
Siena/ReconMR
US Senate
🟥Ken Paxton 44%
🟦James Talarico 48%
🟥Abbott 48%
🟦Hinojosa 47%
October 5-8; 617 LV
For what its worth, Siena’s poll done with the NY Times was Talarico +6
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Due to the election getting closer and the difficulty keeping up with all the polls, Homer Hedgehog cartoons will be a bit more sparse between now and election day. I also will be gone several days over the next several weeks.
I hope Janzam can tell us when the TX voters will start paying attention.
LikeLike
I read through Walt’s “slavery was bad BUT” mumbo jumbo on the previous post, in the end I agreed with at least ONE point he made.
“And the Civil War was all about slavery”
True.
LikeLike
Maybe Walt can share a heartwarming story about a guard at Auschwitz who decided not to shoot 2 girls in the head and only shot 1.
LikeLike
Walt might be spending too much time with Tina.
And PLEASE let us ALL remember that, despite factual records that prove otherwise, 100% of every white person in the south supported slavery, 100% owned slaves, 100% beat all their slaves every Tuesday just because, 100% supported the confederacy and did NOT take up arms against the confederacy, and 0% of whites in the south did anything to help slaves in any way. And 0% of white slaves owners made legal provisions to free their slaves upon their death. Any and all historical data that proves or suggests otherwise will be burned or otherwise destroyed and never spoken of.”
“Nor were there any men in the south who left the south to go north and join the Union army to fight against the south, and it is a lie to say there were pockets of the south that took up arms and remained loyal to the union throughout the ENTIRE Civil war and were never controlled militarily by the Confederacy. Nor were there any whites in the north thst were opposed to fighting the southern states, nor were there any whites in the north that were racists back before 1865.”
“And the world would be a better place if we had just killed off all whites, whether they owned slaves or not, in the south in 1865 once the North won the Civil War.”
Made up garbage nobody ever said here.
LikeLike
I have no idea who is really leading in Texas. I know Tina will trash any poll where Paxton is not up by 20. Both can be true.
LikeLike
What will happen if Talafreako wins is we will be told that Cornyn would have lost by more.
LikeLike
In both Florida and Michigan, it seems the early voting shows Republicans outpacing democrats compared to 2024.
LikeLike
from Eric Daugherty:
Former Navy SEAL Carl Higbie goes on a RAMPAGE in favor of the public execution of Fort Hood terrorist Nidal Hasan on national TV:
“The same party that k*lls MILLIONS of babies every year through abortion is going to clutch their pearls about SH00TING a terrorist in the face!”
“An American military officer turned his gun on his fellow service members in the name of Islam, including standing over a nine-month pregnant mother and SH00TING her!”
“I want him to de in the most painful dath imaginable. I want ALL of these people that believe the same things to see it happen.”
“I certainly don’t care that he is in a wheelchair. Zero sympathy. Because he k*lled my brothers and sisters.”
Higbie is 100% right!
Hasan m*rdered 13 people on a U.S. base in the name of jihad. AND HE IS PROUD OF IT
Meanwhile he has leftists DEFENDING him all across America because they have suic*dal empathy.
He has been sitting on death row since 2013 while his victims’ families waited for justice.
LikeLike
The apologists for the South love to pretend the Civil War was not about slavery, it was for “economic reasons”.
Zzzzzz…
Slaveowners wanted to keep slaves for economic reasons, yes.
Slavery was evil, the South wanted to keep slaves, the war was about the fact the Southern states did not want to abolish slavery and tried to break up the Union to preserve that right.
Nothing changes that. Not “black slave owners”. Not “there were slaves in the North”. Not some Southerners opposed slavery. Not some Northerners approved of slavery. Not some Southerners fought for the North. Not some Northerners fought for the South. Not the North committed atrocities during the war. Not that people in the South suffered the consequences of fighting a war on its own soil and of losing the war.
None of that even remotely suggests the Civil War was not about slavery, and none of it serves as any justification for slavery or its evilness.
No war is fought with approval of 100% of the population on either side.
But Walt knows that.
LikeLike
What will happen if Talafreako wins is we will be told that Cornyn would have lost by more.”
We will also be told that the “GOP-e” is responsible for Paxton losing.
Tina and Janzam will never admit Paxton is the mother of all crappy candidates.
LikeLike
I would propose a compromise on the execution.
Have the execution available for downloading after it happened rather than being shown live.
Anyone who chooses to air it or download it is free to do so.
LikeLike
The difference is nobody will be watching anyone dying in real time. They can watch the video of the death of someone.
LikeLike
Hope springs eternal.
“CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten recently highlighted data showing that early-October generic congressional ballot polling has understated Republican performance in 14 of the 16 election cycles since 1994.”
LikeLike
(Some of you people on here are absolutely loony on lots of things related to the civil war… and make all sorts of wild, unfounded, untrue charges and aspersions against me for what I posted…).
Not me.
Nothing personal, I am not going to agree with any theory that the Civil War was not about slavery or that there was any justification for slavery or that anything that happened during or afte the war changes that.
I can live with the charge of being “loony” for believing that.
LikeLike
I hope so jason, and that would be consistent with FL, MI, and last I checked OH showing strong numbers for Republicans in early voting.
https://flvoicenews.com/florida-turnout-tracker/
As you can see in Florida the numbers look pretty strong.
LikeLike
I would prefer it be shown live but I can accept Jason’s compromise.
I think the worst argument is that showing it live will make him a martyr and inspire more attacks. That raises the question of why were there so many prior terrorist attacks without a live execution of a terrorist?
LikeLike
·
BREAKING: Florida Republicans are returning their mail-in ballots at a HIGHER RATE than Democrats vs 2024 — and the statewide mail lead for Dems is now FLAT from 2 years ago RETURN RATE: Republican: 24% (+1) Democrat: 23% STATEWIDE MAIL: 2026: D+7 2024: D+7 I’ve been watching this for days now and I am seeing no Democrat surge or wave. An inordinate number of NPAs suddenly voting blue would be required KEEP VOTING
LikeLike
Oh, continues to see a continued drop off by drats. The yutes and Aas are not turning out.
LikeLike
In the Eagles loss on Sunday, not sure why during the return the guy tackled the runner when he did. there were other players swarming down field to bring him down with 0:00 on the clock, but instead he tackled him with 0:01 on the clock allowing the game winner.
LikeLike
DW – The Eagles players missed several chances to tackle him. I think that the kicker was the last possible defender. If there were players behind him, I am not sure they would not have also missed the tackle. It was horrible to watch.
LikeLike
I guess the play that really messed it up for the Eagles was the one prior to their field goal, where the runner was instantly stuffed and tackled, not allowing enough time to come off the clock before the field goal.
LikeLike
They should have run it 3 times but passed twice instead. The incompletions stopped the clock as a gift to the Jags.
LikeLike
John Elway made the same mistake in 1982 in the game against Cal, where he panicked and called timeout too soon so that after Stanford kicked the ‘winning’ field goal they had to kick off due to several seconds still being on the clock.
The result was Cal making five laterals on the way down the field to score a touchdown with the Stanford band out on the field–the famous play to beat the band.
LikeLike
I had to watch this play as the Internet talks of nothing else (besides the Commanders QB who let the clock run out instead of spiking the ball or throwing it out of bounds, watched that fiasco too)
I don’t think you can chase a runner down and look at the clock at the same time.
It was just bad luck for the Eagles that the runner didn’t get to take one more step before the tackle. If you look closely, the kicker slowed him down just a tad, otherwise he might have gone all the way.
LikeLike
I think Walt’s perspective is skewed because he had friends and neighbors who served on both sides of the civil war.
LikeLike
Speaker Johnson DROPS this warning to millions of Americans
If we let the Democrats win the midterms, THEIR DAY ONE AGENDA:
“It would roil the markets and it would empower our enemies around the world at the worst possible time!”
Contrast ALL of this with MAGA and Republicans. Trump is proposing election integrity, a PERMANENT ban on opening up the border for any future president, ban on transgendering kids, lower taxes and destroying fraudulent spending
Vote like our republic depends on it!
LikeLike
KalshiPolitics
·
7m
POLITICO: Top Democratic pollster says that the recent round of NYT/Siena polls were “too rosy”
LikeLike
Aren’t ny slimes/slimena poles the worst in the biz?
LikeLike
unfortunately, Johnson is right, but unfortunately, its too late to do much about it. In damage control mode. Trump will have to veto everything the next two years.
LikeLike
The Commanders play was hilarious. The have 45 seconds, they can let it go down to like 10, spike the ball, kick the FG and win. Instead they run a passing play with 15 to go and even then, all the QB had to do was throw the ball out of bounds. Instead he lets himself be tackled while holding on to the ball. Then he is actually lying on the ground and not really trying to get up quickly when another player runs up and motions “spike it”.
But it was too late, probably too late anyway because there were receivers downfield that had to get back too.
Had it been the Broncos and I still cared if they won or lost, I would have killed myself.
LikeLike
As to the polling, its true I have NEVER seen so many examples where the Dem internal polling (which historically is the rosiest for the Dem candidate), was then outpaced by a university or media poll showing an even bigger lead for the Dem, often 4 to 8 points better. Its insane.
The way it works is the candidate’s pollster is polling constantly, so when they release an internal, they pick the two or three days in a row that gave them the highest mark. I have seen it where they even released an internal that had Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday, but not Tuesday, as a means of juicing their numbers. But the university and media polls often go much darker blue.
LikeLike
In 1998 the Dems were projected to lose up to 30 seats.
They ended up winning 5.
Hope springs eternal.
LikeLike
Of course, even then it didn’t win them the House.
LikeLike
Republicans in Florida having an awesome day so far in mailed in ballots:
2024 Mail returned was
D+7.0 (D+211,285)
2026 mail so far
D+6.8 (D+36,857)
Shift from 2024 to now
R+0.2
2024 finished D+7.0. This cycle is D+6.8, a R+0.2 shift. Percentage points of the mail ballot, not the raw vote gap. A smaller Democratic lead is an R shift.
LikeLike
The trial is expected to last 3 weeks?!? He was getting paid to work 5 full time government jobs at the same time
LikeLike
GOP keeps gaining in Florida:
2024 Mail returned was:
D+7.0 (D+211,285)
2026 mail so far:
D+6.7 (D+36,620)
Shift from 2024 to now
R+0.3
2024 finished D+7.0. This cycle is D+6.7, a R+0.3 shift. Percentage points of the mail ballot, not the raw vote gap. A smaller Democratic lead is an R shift.
LikeLike
2024 Mail returned was
D+7.0 (D+211,285)
2026 mail so far
D+6.6 (D+36,537)
Shift from 2024 to now
R+0.4
2024 finished D+7.0. This cycle is D+6.6, a R+0.4 shift. Percentage points of the mail ballot, not the raw vote gap. A smaller Democratic lead is an R shift.
LikeLike
With fl ds will exhaust their numbers. Rs will have reserves with the reg advantage
LikeLike
A federal judge just ordered Florida to stop counting mailed in ballots because Democrats need more time to catch up.
LikeLike
Can I get the brand that Eric Daugherty is drinking?
UPDATE: GOP operatives say the ENTIRE 2026 midterm battlefield is “INSIDE 3 POINTS” and Democrats believe the polls are “too rosy” for them — POLITICO
WE’VE HEARD THIS BEFORE.
One House Democrat: “It’s starting to feel overhyped.”
This happens EVERY ELECTION CYCLE and we can cancel them out by voting in droves
LikeLike
I continue to believe Paxton will defeat Talarico. Would Cornyn have been doing any better? With such a humiliating primary, and with so many of the base and grassroots fed up with Cornyn, I think it’s fools gold to keep on groaning about “if only” Cornyn was the nominee. Nonetheless, we will see what the numbers turn out to be after November 3rd. Should Paxton lose there will be nothing but jeering for those who supported him ——> me. However, should Paxton win there will be crickets from those same people.
LikeLike
Gasoline prices here ra ge from $4.19 to $3.87 per gallon
Never before seen such wide price difference in a 10 mile area.
LikeLike
Walt, its because some stations are seeing a path forward to lower costs to replenish their supply so they are gambling a bit against the competition hoping to win on volume and that the prices do drop some. The more cautious stations are holding the prices higher in case their costs don’t drop.
But the popular convenience store stations can afford to gamble a bit, knowing they can also win on fried chicken, hot dogs, and other fast food.
LikeLike
Nonetheless, we will see what the numbers turn out to be after November 3rd.”
LOL
We were supposed to see the voters paying attention after Labor Day.
Now I guess we have to wait until the night of the election?
Janzam lock for HHR Clown 2025.
LikeLike
Should Paxton lose there will be nothing but jeering for those who supported him ——> me. However, should Paxton win there will be crickets from those same people.”
Not me.
I will breathe a huge sigh of relief.
But Paxton will still be a crappy candidate and Cornyn would still have wiped the floor with Talarico.
LikeLike
Now I guess we have to wait until the night of the election?
Everything before election day is speculation and based on one’s own choice. After Election Day it represents reality. Paxton has a lot of rough edges, but is more reliable in executing difficult policies, laws, especially those protecting children from transgender surgeries. Cornyn is a slick establishment politician who goes along to get along. I doubt he would wiping anyone’s floor……
LikeLike
and with so many of the base and grassroots fed up with Cornyn, I think it’s fools gold to keep on groaning about “if only” Cornyn was the nominee.”
LOL
I guess this is an admission that “the base and grassroots” don’t win elections.
So unless the deadenders wouldn’t vote for Cornyn, considering Cornyn has a lot more support among non-Maga Rs and Indies, he should run away with the election against a weirdo communist.
LikeLike
Cornyn is a slick establishment politician who goes along to get along”
Translation: he would have won by at least 10 and wiped the floor with the commie.
LikeLike
they are down $15 in oil prices. Yet pump prices are barely down 10-15 cents. Ridiculous. As is the variance.
Hopefully Pooty and sniffy quit the sheot about blowing up diesel.
LikeLike
Everything before election day is speculation and based on one’s own choice.”
Major goal post moving alert.
Do I have to go back and get your posts where you said Paxton would pull ahead after Labor Day when Texans started paying attention or do you admit you were wrong?
LikeLike
Hopefully Pooty and sniffy quit the sheot about blowing up diesel.”
Zzzzzz….
Ukraine is completely justified in going after Russia’s oil industry.
If Trump is worried about he can tell Putin to GTFO of Ukraine.
LikeLike
Paxton has a lot of rough edges”
LOL
Is that the code word for “unpopular and loaded with baggage”?
LikeLike
Paxton leads
·
🚨 NOW: NEW TEXAS US SENATE poll 🔴 Ken Paxton: 47.2% (+0.5) 🔵 James Talarico: 46.7% Quantus Insights | 10/9-11 | N=839LV
LikeLike
Cornyn is a slick establishment politician”
Repeating this lie over and over doesn’t make it true.
Cornyn is an actual CONSERVATIVE and Republican with decades of votes and activities to prove it. He doesn’t sell out his conservative principles in order to enhance his MAGA credentials.
Paxton is a populist with zero conservative principles he wouldn’t sell out for whatever current MAGA winds are blowing.
I hope he wins because the alternative is a lot worse. But replacing him on the ticket was a monumental mistake, win or lose.
LikeLike
Wow, “conservative” Paxton leads by 0.5% in red TX against a weirdo communist who was just AWOL for 2 weeks?
Hallelujah, bring out the champagne and the dancing girls.
LikeLike
So the freepassswrs are not concerned about gas prices after all. Who knew?
LikeLike
This was a project began 3 years ago under demented. But the Marxist has to intervene
·
🚨 NOW: ONE BIDEN JUDGE Ana Reyes has BANNED the Trump admin from cutting down any more trees on the East Potomac golf course in D.C. through at least Oct. 26 Judges are now deciding whether the President can trim trees at a public golf course. WAY IN OVER HER HEAD The National Park Service says it’s simply carrying out a 2019 rehabilitation plan to restore the course’s look and reopen views of the Washington Monument GET THESE ACTIVIST JUDGES OUT OF THE WAY.
LikeLike
So the freepassswrs are not concerned about gas prices after all. Who knew?”
Gas prices are high because of the Iran “war”. Gas was at least a dollar cheaper than when the war started.
But Tina knows that.
Tina is not worried about the price of gas. She is worried about Ukraine blowing up her hero Putin’s oil industry.
LikeLike
2026 New York Governor 🔵 Kathy Hochul: 47% 🔴 Bruce Blakeman: 44% Pollfinity poll | 10/8-10/12
LikeLike
Jan and Tina can rejoice! Actually all of us can.
Quantus Insights
🟥Ken Paxton 47.2%
🟦James Talarico 46.7%
***Alternative Reality***
🟥John Cornyn 51.2%
🟦James Talarico 42.7%
LikeLike
The freepassers were mute about Biden’s prices. They never even “knew” food prices went up 23%.
Gas is high because of the antics of sniffy and pooty.
LikeLike
It is not because hormuzzle is closed
LikeLike
It’s over for freako. Yesterday he came out saying Biden’s open border was bad.
LikeLike
Cornyn and the freepasssers want Paxton to lose.
LikeLike
I said to wait for Mid to late October polling. But no.
LikeLike
Cornyn and the freepasssers want Paxton to lose.
Another lie. Everybody at HHR wants Paxton to win.
LikeLike
Last week the freepassers strongly suggested that muh Hispanics were upset because of the deportations.
·
There’s literally no sign of a reversion of support from Hispanic voters in Florida. Florida early vote looks like 2022, but with mutual higher volume. DeSantis won that by 19.4. And people might misremember, but he didn’t poll like he’d win by 19. Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody poll like DeSantis and Rubio in 2022. But there are fewer polls now, which should also tell you a lot.
LikeLike
Cornyn and the freepasssers want Paxton to lose.
The free passers still stand behind Cornyn and criticize Paxton. However, if Paxton wins they’ll just shuffle on and say nothing. It’s Cornyn who has said he wishes Paxton will lose, as it will teach the MAGA supporters a lesson to not go against the establishment republicans again.
LikeLike
This morning Steve Cortes did a voting analysis of AZ Hispanics. Their “beef” is not deportation but the economy, gas prices etc. in which they blame the current president.
LikeLike
Do I have to go back and get your posts where you said Paxton would pull ahead after Labor Day….
And you said back in 2016 Trump would lose. There are no crystal balls, Jason, only subjective predictions. Why don’t you stop trying to pick a fight!
LikeLike
I want Paxton to win. I think he may lose which is almost impossible in Texas. Both can be true.
LikeLike
From the Daily Signal:
“Amid a pending divorce, Ken and Angela Paxton likely have their fair share of disagreements. But one thing they agree on: Democrats only have a shot at winning Texas if Republicans fail to stand by their candidates.
As election day nears, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is neck and neck against Democrat state Rep. James Talarico. The race is so close not because Texas has suddenly swung left, but because Republicans are undercutting their own candidates.”
LikeLike
I want Paxton to lose and he will lose.
LikeLike
MAGA dropped that Ohio mental health center hot potato pretty quickly.
LikeLike
here is yet another example. The dem in the AZ Gov race released an internal poll showing a lead of 4 or 5, but that wasn’t good enough for pollster HighGround so they just dropped a poll of only 400 LV showing a lead of +17 for Hobbs.
This is insanity. I have never seen a cycle where this keeps happening over and over. The BEST and most optimistic polls for any candidate are always the released internals. But not this year. Crazy.
LikeLike
·
BREAKING FLORIDA POLL: Governor: Byron Donalds: 52% (+11) David Jolly: 41% US Senate: Sen. Ashley Moody: 52% (+11) Angie Nixon: 41% Stetson University | 10/1-9 | LVs AND THERE IT IS It only becomes reality if every Floridian storms the polls and banksShow more
LikeLike
The GOP romp in Florida continues today:
2024 Mail returned was
D+7.0 (D+211,285)
2026 mail so far
D+6.4 (D+38,934)
Shift from 2024 to now
R+0.5
2024 finished D+7.0. This cycle is D+6.4, a R+0.5 shift. Percentage points of the mail ballot, not the raw vote gap. A smaller Democratic lead is an R shift.
LikeLike
RCP has Florida senate only Lean R.
LikeLike
Leave a Reply