The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +1218217

2026 Senate Forecast

IATXNHMEOHAKMIMNNCGA
Gap+3.6+2.0+1.5+1.0+1.0+0.4+1.8+5.0+6.0+6.5
Count48495051525347464544

Hochul up 16

DW

NEW YORK GOVERNOR

🟦 Kathy Hochul (inc): 50%
🟥 Bruce Blakeman: 34%

Concord Public Opinion, for Education Reform Now (Dem)| 8/19-21 | LV

IOWA SENATE


🟥 Ashley Hinson: 50%
🟦 Josh Turek: 45%

IOWA GOVERNOR
🟦 Rob Sand: 49%
🟥 Zach Lahn: 46%

Emerson 8/31-9/1 | 750 LV

FL-16

🟦 Kelly Kirschner: 40%
🟥 Sydney Gruters: 39%
⬜️ Not sure: 21%

Sea Polling – D Internal | 8/24-30 | R47-D34 | LV

FL-09

🟦 Darren Soto (inc): 41%
🟥 Dan Green: 41%
⬜️ Not sure: 18%

Sea Polling – D Internal | 8/24-30 | LV

[11:30 a.m. update: two more polls added:]

NM-02 POLL

🟦 Gabe Vasquez (inc): 46%
🟥 Greg Cunningham: 43%

KOB4/SurveyUSA | 8/28-9/2 | 554 LV

Two years ago SUSA polled NM-2 and found Vasquez ahead 51 to 42 for the Republican. The final results were 52 to 48, meaning they were off by 5 in favor of Vasquez.

CA-48 POLL

🟦 Marnie Von Wilpert: 45%
🟥 Jim Desmond: 42%
⬜️ Not sure: 13%

🔵 Definitely voting: Von Wilpert +5
🔴 Probably voting: Desmond +12
🔴 Indie: Desmond +29

KGTV/SurveyUSA | 8/27-9/1 | 522 LV

19 responses to “Hochul up 16”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First

    Like

  2. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    DeItaone

    US JOBS SMASH EXPECTATIONS August nonfarm payrolls surged +162K, crushing the +53K consensus. Unemployment held at 4.1%, in line with expectations. Private payrolls rose +127K, while government added +35K. Hourly earnings increased +0.27% MoM / +3.09% YoY. Labor-force participation: 61.6%. Previous payrolls revised to +21K in July and +31K in June.

    ·

    36.9K Views

    Like

  3. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    How is Cruz being quiet here about his 2028 run?

    https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/2095333848405987681

    Like

  4. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  5. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I think the Russians manipulated the jobs data with trump

    -freepaser

    Like

  6. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Tina has completely lost it.

    Like

  8. DW Avatar
    DW

    RMG Research has Trump approval at 46/52

    Liked by 1 person

  9. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    ssq texted me.

    She wants to know about all the commercial ships in the Persian Gulf. She wants to know why there are so many commercial ships.

    Are they full of TV commercials or radio commercials? Are they old commercials like Burma Shave, and Brylcreme, or new commercials? Who is buying all these commercials? Each commercials ship holds millions…

    Like

  10. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    A woman went to the adult store to buy a new battery for her vibrator and put it on her charge card.

    When she got her charge card statement, she was surprised to see she was charged with “sexual battery.”

    Like

  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    I just updated the thread to include two more US HOUSE polls, both from SUSA. These two are among many where if it was true we were headed for a national blue-wave, these two seats would not even be close. But they are.

    NM-2 is rated by all the toupees as either lean or likely D. CA-48 is lean D by most of them.

    Like

  12. DW Avatar
    DW

    official: Mistrial in the Clancy case

    Like

  13. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    in the forest where all the trees were alphabetized, nobody could get onto it.

    Seems there was no “N” tree.

    Like

  14. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    “JG, seriously, are you or you not a parent?” Yes, GF, I am.

    Regarding the Lindsay Clancy case…

    Yes, she is a murderer. She viciously and savagely killed her three children. She even admits that herself.

    This is also the clearest case of insanity I’ve seen in American law in a long time.

    You see, GF, I have three daughters. My wife, after the third birth, severly suffered from postpartum pyschosis. She heard not one voice in her head, but eleven voices. I still remember her slamming her fists against her head to stop the voices, then trying to cut off her hair…anything to stop the voices.

    At all costs, I had to seperate their mother from her children. At all costs.

    I admitted her to the Harborview (Seattle) Mental Health Hospital. Still remember them locking the doors. When released a couple of weeks later she appeared comatose from over medication.

    Then the voices came back and the crying started. The constant crying. She had thoughts-terrible thoughts.

    I couldn’t make sense of her thoughts. Sounded like madness. The only thought I had was to take the girls to a safe place and away from their mother.

    Again, I took her to St. Francis mental health facility. This was all the while of taking care of my three young children at home. And thankful for the Family Leave Act.

    This went on for about five years. Admitting her to hospital stays. Signing papers. Taking care of my children. I reached out my church and especially the CPS (child protective services) and they helped.

    Postpartum pyschoisis is real. Mental illness is real. And so is insanity.

    If you are going to charge Lindsay Clancy with first degree murder, then might as well indict her then husband and mother of crimminal liability for not taking the children away from their mother.

    Like

  15. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Breaking News – 3 children killed by Clancy still dead.

    I recommend starting the new trial on Tuesday and sequester the jury.

    Like

  16. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    A panel decided to induct the late Dolly Parton into the Best Amricans Hall of Fame.

    The vote was not unanimous though. It was “9 to 5.”

    ********

    The jury of 12 Jamaicans was unable to come to a verdict when they tried the Jamaican rapper. They were DREADlocked.

    Like

  17. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    John Goggin, how is your wife’s mental health today?

    Like

  18. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    On a serious note, the one data center to be built here in my county will provide a combined ANNUAL payment to the County government and the county school system of $65 MILLION. @$20 million per year to county government and @$45 million to county schools.

    CURRENTLY, the total COUTY GOVERNMENT budget is $55 million.

    The total county SCHOOL budget is @ $350 million.

    I cannot for the life of me figure out how a data center gets the income to pay $65 MILLION. EVERY. YEAR. in just LOCAL taxes.
    Plus state taxes….federal taxes…

    A data center does not manufacture anything.
    WHAT IS their source of revenue that would provide such income to pay all these ANNUAL taxes and still make a profit?

    Like

  19. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

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