The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

MIMETXAKIAOHNHNCMNGA
Gap+4.5+3.5+2.0+2.0+1.0+1.0+3.3+5.5+7.0+8.5
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Monday Polls

DW

MICHIGAN Senate

🟥 Rogers: 46%
🟦 El-Sayed: 43%

EPIC/MRA – 7/24-31; 600 LV

TEXAS Senate

🟦 Talarico: 48%
🟥 Paxton: 46%

🟦 Hinojosa: 44%
🟥 Abbott: 50%

Wedgewood Polls 7/30-31; 800 LV

SC-01 POLL

🟥 Honeycutt: 50%
🟦 Lacore: 48%
——
Full Field
🟥 Honeycutt: 43%
🟦 Lacore: 42%
🟪 Reeside: 5%
⬜️ Ellis: 1%

GQR for @MajorityPAC (Dem) | 7/15-22

CA-11 POLL (Chan internal)

🟦 Scott Wiener: 45%
🟦 Connie Chan: 40%
⬜️ Not sure: 11%

Lake Research | 7/14-19 | 400 LV

CONNECTICUT POLL By Great Blue Research/WFSB/CT Insider

DEM GOV
🟦 Ned Lamont (inc): 57%
🟦 Josh Elliot: 22%
——
GOV GE
🟦 Ned Lamont (inc): 55%
🟥 Ryan Fazio: 33%
—
🟦 Josh Elliot: 49%
🟥 Ryan Fazio: 34%

7/21-26 | Likely voters

69 responses to “Monday Polls”

  1. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @DeItaone

    ·

    ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX 55.6 IN JULY (CONSENSUS 54.0) VS 53.3 IN JUNE

    Like

  2. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @Five_Starrr

    **PA WEEKLY VOTER REG UPDATE** 7/27-8/3 Net🔴+30,195 Overall Lead🔵+25,811 Gains Since Dec 24🔴+105,108 BACK TO BACK WEEKS OF BREAKING NEWS!! The GOP gains over 30k, the largest gain in a single week this decade. It was another maintenance gain, almost completely out of Philly. Are we seeing the illegals finally being purged? The state is now the closest it has ever been to

    Like

  3. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    will boris mention the Pa numbers?

    Like

  4. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Don’t have the figures about what Paxton have spent so far campaigning against Talarico, but just read that James Talarico has spent over $12 million dollars in ads to introduced himself to Texas voters. $12 million and just a 2 point lead?

    And still below 50%.

    Like

  5. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    DW – You are doing a great job with HHR. I think if was a lucky development I was locked out. Keep up the fine work.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. DW Avatar
    DW

    Thanks Bitter. Will try to keep up with it all.

    Like

  7. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    What did the 2 dead Enders accomplish here? Nuffin.

    @ChuckGrassley

    Judic Cmte is ready to vote on Todd Blanche’s nomination Tuesday 9AM Blanche is right pick for Atty Gen &our country is safer w him leading DOJ Thx Pres Trump+ Blanche+ Sens Cornyn & Tillis for working thru the wkend w me to get the votes to advance this well qualified nominee

    ·

    5,915 Views

    Like

  8. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    I see Hong in Wisconsin was campaigning with Piker & Omar yesterday. LOL

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    Phil, shhh…Hong is planned for tomorrow’s Homer Hedgehog

    Liked by 1 person

  10. DW Avatar
    DW

    Interesting to me how so many forecasting models stay stuff like we should expect a Dem majority of 230-205 as though the GOP didn’t win the redistricting war.

    To get to 230, looking at the HHR projections, Dems would have to win all of the tossup seats, all of the Lean R seats, and some that are currently rated Likely R.

    Even using the ratings of Charlie Toupee Cook, the Dems would have to get all of HIS rated tossups (18!), and all but 2 of Charlie’s Lean R seats.

    Like

  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    Don’t get me wrong, its absolutely possible that the Dems get house control, but 230?

    Like

  12. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Baris says if Iran doesn’t change for the better and gas prices don’t come down it will be a Republican bloodbath in November.

    Like

  13. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    ”If you want to purchase food from one of communist Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s government-run supermarkets, you must… present some form of ID.”

    Amazing the audacity of socialist/communist leaders!!!

    Like

  14. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    ID to buy a loaf of bread. No ID to vote.

    Makes perfect sense. LOL

    Like

  15. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/08/03/us-news/naked-nutjob-who-leaped-from-brooklyn-bridge-and-miraculously-survived-identified/

    Not sure why he needed to be naked to jump off the bridge.

    Like

  16. DW Avatar
    DW

    The same Baris who polled three times in the last 48 hours of Massie’s primary saying each time it was tied.

    Like

  17. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Actually, I don’t know whether truly Baris’ polling indicates because of Iran the Republicans will take a bath in November or if he’s just saying that because he is so anti Israel. Hard to say, but we will find out in November. I know this. His past accuracy in GE polling makes me nervous. I hope he’s wrong, but it looks like Iran will be right where we are now in the coming months. Voters aren’t going to like that. Whether it cost us in the midterms is the question.

    Like

  18. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I am sure some leftist billionaire will fund the new “60 Minutes of Communism” show.

    “A former boss of “60 Minutes” wants to launch a rival news series with Scott Pelley and other correspondents and producers who have recently exited the iconic show — but insiders are skeptical about whether it can get off the ground, The Post has learned. 

    Bill Owens – who resigned last year as “60 Minutes” executive producer amid a dustup between CBS and President Trump over how a Kamala Harris interview was edited – is looking to raise around $50 million to fund two years’ worth of in-depth and investigative news segments, sources with knowledge said.”

    Like

  19. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    ssq texted me

    She is livid

    Says she heard on the radio on sports news something about the women’s pro basketball team in Indiana being called the Indiana Beavers.

    She says that is a far too racy and sexually suggestive name.

    Like

  20. DW Avatar
    DW

    The thing is Phil, polling keeps showing that even if the GOP brand is not liked at the moment, neither is the Dem brand, particularly with this seismic shift to communism. They are literally losing Bill Maher, James Carville, and others of the traditional tax and spend liberal democrat base. And yes, its still a base that’s larger than the commie takeover. But the commies are winning all these primaries in places where the general election is not going to be like AOC winning in NYC.

    Like

  21. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Although I think Trump is on the right track with Iran, he really should name ONE go to communications person on Iran. At the moment, the MSM shops around and gets answers from a variety of sources. This allows them to promote the “confusion and disfunction” narrative.

    He should say “only so and so speaks for me on Iran, period”.

    Like

  22. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The problem is that these things usually do operate as a wave. Maybe sometimes it is a tsunami like 2018, sometime it is a wavelet like 2022, but there is always a trend.

    So I think if the trend is negative for the GOP, the 230 figure is very possible, because it IS likely the GOP will lose most of the close races. Conversely, if the trend is not negative, the GOP will win most of the contested races.

    Like

  23. DW Avatar
    DW

    But that’s the point jason, 230 is easy to throw out there as a number, but much harder to put together an actual listing of seats. This is because the GOP won the redistricting war.

    And the polling of actual seats shows the GOP isn’t yet in that kind of danger, and there are tossup seats like that one in MI that the Dems seem bent on giving to the GOP by nominating a commie to run.

    Like

  24. DW Avatar
    DW

    Case in point, just released FecalData (F) generic ballot:

    🟦 Democrats: 44%
    🟥 Republicans: 36%
    🟨 Other: 4%

    We can focus on the gap if we want, but Fecal can’t get the Dems above 44.

    I suspect that from here on out there is going to be an increase in shy GOP responses in polling due to the rise of communism within the Democrat party. And the Dem hate going off the charts exponentially most strongly affects the results in seats that are already going to be deep blue anyway.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. DW Avatar
    DW

    And every GOP candidate in a contested race will demand the Democrat opponent explain their stand on the rise of the communists in the party. If the tossup race Dem goes full-Carville, then they lose the support of commies in the district, but if they Dem goes full AOC, then they lose support from more moderate dems.

    I don’t know that they can thread the needle saying, “while I don’t like communism, we are a big tent and its more important to defeat Republicans”

    Is the Democratic Party the home of communism in American or is it not?

    Like

  26. DW Avatar
    DW

    EPIC-MRA:

    MI Senate Democratic Primary

    🟦 Haley Stevens: 44%
    🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 42%

    EPIC-MRA (A) | 7/24-31 | LV

    Interesting!

    Like

  27. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    My problem with Trump on Iran is the start and stop pattern policy. Hell, I’m not saying don’t talk to the bastards. Keep reaching out diplomatically. That’s fine….but do it while using all the leverage he can muster. That includes continuing to hit them militarily. They keep playing rope a dope. Like Lucy with the football.

    Promise to talk when we pull the military pressure.

    We halt the bombing.

    They attack commercial shipping.

    We start the bombing again.

    They promise to negotiate again if we stop the bombing

    we halt the bombing…..Rinse and repeat all the while they get periods of relief without actually clearing the strait.

    They just delay, stall, and never seriously negotiate. Trump said today they were duplicitous. Well, no shit Sherlock. Quit giving them respites and pauses. Also quit with the threats of this huge attack on Iran. They don’t believe you Mr. President. Your credibility with that with the Iranians is in the toilet. You never follow through. Hell, if you don’t intend to follow through quit with the threats to do it. They don’t believe you are going to follow through…. and so far, they’ve been right – every time. Again, I don’t want troops on the ground. Lifting the blockade and halting the bombing for the MOU was a mistake. I get it. We gave it a chance…but now we know they were just talking out their ass and had no intention of following through. We should keep that in mind going through. No more pauses.

    Like

  28. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    I hope that Michigan poll is off. If Stevens wins the primary Michigan becomes much harder to flip in November.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    But that’s the point jason, 230 is easy to throw out there as a number, but much harder to put together an actual listing of seats”

    My point is you don’t need an actual listing of seats because a rising tide lifts all boats.

    If there is a blue wave, all those close contests will go one way. That’s how you get to 230.

    Like

  30. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Stevens is a 30-1 underdog at Polymarket.

    You can get rich if you think she can win the primary.

    I guess they are not impressed by the poll.

    But the poll is good news because it will stimulate both of them to spend more money and level more attacks on each other.

    https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner

    Like

  31. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Trump said today they were duplicitous”

    I thought Phil said he was naive and been fooled by the Iranians.

    Which is it?

    Like

  32. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    I’m all for them spending huge amounts of money.

    Like

  33. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Promise to talk when we pull the military pressure.

    We halt the bombing.

    They attack commercial shipping.

    We start the bombing again.

    They promise to negotiate again if we stop the bombing

    we halt the bombing…..Rinse and repeat all the while they get periods of relief without actually clearing the strait.”

    Somehow, Phil thinks this is a bad idea.

    I don’t.

    It’s called negotiation.

    Like

  34. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    My problem is it took months for him to come to that obvious conclusion. Geez

    Like

  35. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Negotiation? Oh, is that what the Iranians are doing. LOL Could have fooled me.

    Like

  36. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    hey don’t believe you are going to follow through…. and so far, they’ve been right – every time. “

    Actually, no.

    They have been wrong every time.

    They never thought Israel would decimate both Hamas and Hezbollah.

    They never thought the Saudis and the Gulf States would unite against them.

    They never thought their nuclear facilities would be attacked.

    They never thought Israel and the US would launch devastating attacks on their military infrastructure, navy and air force.

    They obviously didn’t think the Ayatollah and most of the military and intelligence leadership would be killed.

    They never thought the US would blockade the Strait themselves and cause Iran to lose hundreds of millions a day.

    Iran has miscalculated EVERY time.

    Like

  37. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    My problem is it took months for him to come to that obvious conclusion.”

    Only in your mind and on CNN.

    In the real world, Trump has never been fooled by the Iranians.

    Like

  38. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Really? What do you call that MOU he signed. Never fooled?

    Like

  39. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Fecal Data?

    you gotta be crapping me…

    Like

  40. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    But wut about collapsing economy and muh tariffs?

    @QuantusInsights

    U.S. manufacturing PMI hit 55.6 in July making it the strongest reading in more than four years. Seven straight months of expansion, production surging, and factory employment growing for the first time in 33 months. There is also the factor of customer inventories are still low, so the rebound may have more room to run. 2026 looks nothing like 2022–25.

    Like

  41. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Iran continues to dispute Trump’s claims that Iran and the U.S. are in talks negotiating a deal for peace. While I don’t trust anything the Iranians are saying, I also don’t get too encouraged by what Trump says about a deal being close to hand.

    Like

  42. DW Avatar
    DW

    “If there is a blue wave, all those close contests will go one way. That’s how you get to 230.”

    But that is still talking like the re-districting war never happened. It did. The GOP won that war. Give the DEMS all of the tossups and they get only to 223, according to Charlie Cooks definition of a tossup that is.

    Like

  43. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Getting ready for another soiree on Tuesday. 12 people this time.

    Like

  44. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    BREAKING

    A new snag has developed for the Iran war peace deal.

    Trump us now demanding the Iranians agree to taking Mandami, MI Sen. candidate El Sayeed, Dem senator nut candidate in TX, congresswoman AOC, Tahlib, Pressley, etc. and various communist mayor’s from MA to WA, plusses a plane land of MSM reporters and anchors.

    The Iranians balked and said, “we may be crazy but we’re not stupid. We have an overabundance of whack jobs here…don’t need any more.”

    Like

  45. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    I am not seeing a blue wave. I don’t think the Ds get the senate. It looks grim in fact.

    The ds also have some bad candidates with baggage.

    Like

  46. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  47. DW Avatar
    DW

    MI-3’s Dem rep Hillary Scholten is running in a Likely D district (Harris +8). A host of Democrats however are running in closely contested races. What answer will they give?

    Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-MI) refuses — for the second time — to back Abdul El-Sayed if he wins the Dem Senate primary (The Midwesterner) “I will not stand beside someone who has allowed distinctly anti-American sentiment to enter our public dialogue.” She cites his campaigning with Hasan Piker + failure to rein in “rampant sexist” attacks on Haley Stevens. And she predicts Stevens will still win – “People are way too online. Get offline… Abdul is certainly winning in the online contest, but Haley is strongly winning with actual voters.”

    Scholten can afford to lose the commie vote and still win relatively easily. But tossup district Dems face the mathematics of either losing the commie/SDA vote or the votes of more moderate Dems.

    Like

  48. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I have thoroughly rearchrred it, and found that NOBODY, EVER has come forth with s musical play about ancient Inian cliff dwellers.

    This is my BIG chanve for fame and riches.

    Much bigger than my idea to make fame and fortune with my idea of making pawpaw ketchup, or making various wrist watches geared around natural disasters (Flood watch, tornado watch. hurricane watch, snow blizzard watch, tsunami watch, etc. Or making stickers to put on mirrors that say things like “the person appearing in this mirror may appear smarter than they actually are”, or …”sexier than they really are”, etc.

    Like

  49. DW Avatar
    DW

    I checked with Cash Cow and she says she wants a part in the play, but isn’t sure about being able to sing.

    Liked by 1 person

  50. Harry - Radiant Cheesecake Avatar
    Harry – Radiant Cheesecake

    Does this COVID talk help Republicans?

    I think it does. Fauci’s testimony reminded me that Paxton pushed to open Texas private and public schools in 2020.

    That sealed it for me. Not a big Paxton fan, but he has my vote for Senator for that reason alone.

    If parents are reminded about the 2020 school shutdowns, that has got to help Republicans.

    Like

  51. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    @AB84

    ·

    4h

    Imagine how crazy nursing homes are going to get when trans people get Alzheimer’s and start wondering where their dicks went.

    Like

  52. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Depends is lying here. He knew what frasuci was doing. Dr briquette also told depends that she went around president Trump. She and depends are quilty

    https://x.com/Mike_Pence/status/2084323415994065103

    Like

  53. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    in the musical One Eyed Eddie and the Indian girl with the woodrn leg (Patsy Swine)get married.

    The affectionate name he calls her is “Peg” and also “Hoppy the Hopi”. She refers to him as Jack”..her “lovable One-Eyed Jack.”

    He is so witty and when she is slow getting his food ready for a meal he tells her “shake a leg, Peg” or “hop to it, Hoppy” and she doubles over with laughter.

    Often her rejoinder is that he had better keep an eye on her, lest she might run off.”

    He laughs hysterically.

    He replies that “with one wooden leg she won’t be able to run very far or fast”, and she again doubles over with laughter.

    Then she says she is “glad there is at least one of us that can put a hand over their left eye and still be able to safely walk the ledge down to get water.”

    Then he doubles over with laughter.

    Besides a great story, good sub plots, interesting characters, and hit songs that will be sung, you can see there is also a LOT of good humor to entertain the people who will be buying tickets to see this play.

    ●●●●●

    P.S. I am having trouble finding a good looking, one legged, Indian looking woman who can both act and sing. I am considering Nicki Minaj..but would have to cut one of her legs off, of course…

    Any of you know someone who fits the bill who already is missing a leg?

    Like

  54. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    DW,

    Cash Cow is indeed being written into the play. Remember Duke Skywalker rescued her from the Gulf of Mexico and taught her to talk while riding her back to the Grand Canyon cliffs.

    Later in the pay, Cash Cow is grazing close by when the bad Indian Damien Pinyon Nut and Rich liberal Indian Huwlett Plackard are standing close by thinking it ok to discuss dastardly secret plans since there are no other Indians around. But they did not know Cash Cow could talk and hear and was overhearing all their plans and would soon report back to Duke Skywalker.

    We may have to get someone to sing Cash Cows songs while she just moves her lips and pretends.

    Cash Cow cannot carry a tune in a milk bucket.

    Milli Vanilli milk…

    Like

  55. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Lots of liberals are rallying to Dr. Fauci in defense of his using the 5th to refuse to not answer “what day of the week do you think it is?” , “and what color tie are you wearing?”

    The pro Fauci people say:

    WE HAVE TO TRUST THE SILENCE”

    Like

  56. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I think Sammy Davis Jr. would be perfect for playing the role of One Eyed Jack.

    He is still alive, isn’t he?

    Like

  57. DW Avatar
    DW

    See if you can hire Rosie O’Donnell to be Cash Cow’s stunt double.

    Liked by 1 person

  58. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    I MEAN playing role of the Indian ONE EYED EDDIE.

    Like

  59. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Duke Skywalker takes Princess Sleah on a canoe ride on the Colorado River cutting through the canyon but a sudden flash flood has them hung up and marooned on a big rock with rushing water all around them.

    They sing a beautiful duet of “Stuck In The Middle With You.”

    Like

  60. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    A lost bison wanders into the canyon and falls for Cash Cow and sings “Something in the way she moos, attracts me like no udder…”

    Like

  61. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Free law lesson. If you answer ANY question, you waive the right to invoke the 5th Amendment on any subsequent question.

    Like

  62. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Busy day on the MLB trade front. Perhaps the biggest trade day I’ve ever seen. Let the dust settle.

    Like

  63. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Trapped on the rocks in the middle of rhe raging Cloorado, Duke Skywalker has an arrow, but is searching frantically for some yew wood to make a bow out of, so he can shoot twine he has over to the shore as part of his rescue plans.

    Princess Sleah finds a curved piece of sycamore and says, “Will this work?”

    And Duke responds by singing

    “It Had To Be Yew”

    Like

  64. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    DW,

    I laughed out loud about Rosie O’Donnell as Cash Cow stunt double….

    LOL

    Like

  65. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Leftovers fr Fridat night’ sooree was supper this evening.

    Like

  66. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Since I don’t cook, I am always on clean up duty after supper.

    Not too many dishes to wash UNTIL the wife begins cleaning out the fridge, and then taking whay dirty things were in the dish washer and stacking them for me to hand wash in the sink, so it would be empty for the soiree tomorrow.

    Wife had to empty the dish rack strainer twice so I could have a place to put the dished after I washed them. Plus she started to dry off a couple that she found still had food partials on and made me rewash those.

    I had already worked 2 more hours down at the Hospice facility this morning to add to the two hours I did last week refurbishing furniture there, hanging things on the wall…

    Then ran errands this afternoon to get this and that for tomorrow including a new lawn sprinkler to replace the one I ran over with the car on Saturday.

    Then vacuumed and dusted.

    Then do the ever growing number of dirty dishes after supper.

    Then we have to water the flower gardens and pots of flowers. Wife takes the back yard and I am assigned flower beds in the front of the house. I HATE watering, because it stirs up all the insect critters who get so much joy out of biting and chewing on me and causing, welts, sore and itchy spots all over me.

    I do not know how they get thru my jeans and other clothing to bite me on my legs and torso.

    Yes, of course they eat my head, face and arms up as well…

    Like

  67. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Plus,, my one and only good pair of sunglasses fell of while watering and unrepairably

    broke . Now I have to use the sunglasses the dentist makes you wear with Briarwood Dental stamped on them.

    Like

  68. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Walt invented fire and the wheel but does not have a dishwasher? Mrs. Walt is cruel.

    Like

  69. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    .R. itter

    We DO HAVE A DISHWASHER.

    But my wife pulled out the dirty dishes out if the dishwasher and had me do them by hand in addition to the dishes and pans from supper AND all the dishes she pulled out of the fridge whe. She cleaned out the fridge.

    It makes her happy to see me enjoying washing dishes by hand in the sink

    I like making her happy.

    Like

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