The Hedgehog Report – Phoenix Edition

HHR lives! Sort of.

New Book:

2026 House Forecast

GOPDEM
Republican +5220215

2026 Senate Forecast

METXAKIAMIOHNHNCMNGA
Gap+3.5+2.0+2.0+1.0+1.0+1.0+3.3+5.5+7.0+8.5
Count48495051525347464544

Encouraging Poll of NY-17

DW

From A rated pollster Co-Efficient, who did an unusually large sample of 1,292 likely voters, adding some extra value to this poll.
NY-17 is currently on the Democrat side of the ledger on the HHR House Forecast page. I will have to run some numbers to see if this should flip over to the GOP side.

🟥 Mike Lawler (inc): 50%
🟦 Cait Conley: 45%
——
Net Favs

  • Pres. Trump: -7
  • Gov. Hochul: -13
  • Mayor Mamdani: -16
    ——
    @coefficientpoll | 7/20-22 | 1,292 LV

UPDATE at 10:37 a.m. on Friday: ANOTHER good poll for the GOP. VA-02 had been given up for dead as a Dem flip. But Spanberger’s gun grabbing and far leftist policies are apparently helping in this swing district. Tulchin Research is a Democrat polling firm and the best they can get is a tie. Dems are running former Rep. Luria.

VA-02 POLL For @HouseMajPAC (Dem)

🟥 Jen Kiggans (inc): 47%
🟦 Elaine Luria: 47%

Tulchin Research – D | 700 LV | 7/9-13
politico.com/newsletters/pl

70 responses to “Encouraging Poll of NY-17”

  1. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    First. Yesterday, my wife had Alaska King crab. 1 leg of the crab had 1 pound of meat in it. She said it was delicious and worth $99. I do not eat crab and the whole process of cracking the leg and claw and pulling out the meat looked and sounded disgusting.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://nypost.com/2026/07/24/us-news/cops-fume-as-mamdani-urges-new-yorkers-to-protest-netanyahu-after-arrest-fail/

    New Yorkers actually elected him.

    Like

  3. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    DEW,

    I like it when you put the rating of the polling company.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. DW Avatar
    DW

    Just updated the thread to include a poll I missed. VA-02 is rated a Tossup by most forecasters. But a Dem polling firm doing a poll for @HouseMajPAC (Dem) could only predict a tie.

    Tulchin doesn’t have much of a track record for which they can be graded. Their current polls show the Dem up 4 in tossup CA-22 (which I expect to go Dem), and they have the Dem up 1 in ME-2, a seat everyone figures will flip to the GOP.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. DW Avatar
    DW

    generic ballot:

    National poll By McLaughlin (R)

    Generic Ballot

    🟦 Democrats: 46% (=)

    🟥 Republicans: 44% (+1)

    Like

  6. DW Avatar
    DW

    Another one in the category of a Dem long-shot showing a fund-raising internal down only 1 point:

    FL-22 POLL – Dandiya (Dem) internal

    🟥 Belinda Kaiser: 46%

    🟦 Pia Dandiya: 45%

    ——

    @GQRResearch | 6/18-25 | 400 LV

    Like

  7. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    How bad is New York City? One of my daughter’s friends I have known since she was 5 and coached in softball is moving from the city to Jersey City because of the cost. She is marrying a woman who had surgery to became male. That’s right. The most woke person I know is fleeing New York to move to high tax New Jersey to save money.

    Like

  8. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    That’s wild, bitter.

    Like

  9. DW Avatar
    DW

    The problem i have with liberals who leave the conditions they voted for, is they move to better states and continue to vote for the conditions they fled from.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Like

  11. DW Avatar
    DW

    within two days we get an Emerson generic ballot D+11 and a McLaughlin that is D+2

    Which is correct?

    Well, today we get three polls of individual house races, and all three suggest McLaughlin is closer to the truth.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Zzzzzzzzzz

    Like

  13. GF Avatar
    GF

    But, DW, THE FUNDAMENTALS!!!

    (Seriously, that guy gets on my nerves.)

    Like

  14. GF Avatar
    GF

    TS Bertha missed me by a fair margin, though we still got a ton of rain and high winds around Gulfport. Flying back to CA today, not sure if my phone will allow me to post.

    Like

  15. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Speaking of Bertha…., did you know that the first female blues singer was a French woman named Bertha DeBlooz?

    Like

  16. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Looks like Lebron James is going to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers.

    Like

  17. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    YESSSSS!

    Like

  18. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    The Good news is that the ant infestation in the kitchen has dissipated

    They are gone.

    The bad news is we have seen our first ant spotted lantern hours

    Despite a lot of rain not too .any days ago, lot of myself. Looks dry.

    Like

  19. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    The other good news is that Manny the Cat got to spend the while day out on the patio under deck and resting and sleeping on the padded bench. Sadly he really is in his last days, very thin, little energy…

    Then, he came inside the house, jumped up in his chair at the kitchen table between me and the wife–just like old times when he did that every day for years.. And Manny promptly gobbled up 2 small plates of gravy and a healthy portion of meat picked from ribs cooked on the grill.

    We were astonished. Feeble Manny ate more this evening than we have seen him eat in the past 5 days.

    Like

  20. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    Frpn the very first, TV quiz shows were a one add done for the contestants, even if a co testa t WOn that day on “Queen for a Day” (for Pete’s sake, it was called Queen For a DAY, not Queen til someone got a higher score and beats you.

    Price is Right, Who Wants To Be Millionaire, etc. and practically all other quiz programs through the ages–winning contestants were NOT brought back to compete the next day, and the next, etc.

    ALL except JEOPARDY!

    We go from rooting for a person hoping they win and then they are back the next day to compete and win more, then the rest of the week, then still there two weeks later, becoming millionaires…and we quickly go from rooting FOR them to rooting AGAIST them. We say it is time to bring in some other quirky, high end autism smarty pants persons (who are probably ADDITIONAL OTHER examples of mixed breeds of alien life forms and a real human) and let them have a chance to win.

    Why not give the winner each night their big $23.500 (or whatever amount) check and bring on 3 new people to have a chance to win money.

    END THE PRACTICE OF JEOPARDY WINNERS COMMING BACK THR NEXT DAY, AND NEXT, AND NEXT UNTIL SOMEONE OUTSCORES THEM.

    Like

  21. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    And another thing…when I am looking for mach 3 replacement razor blades for my razor, it is cheaper to buy a pack of 3 mach 3 RAZORS AND BLADES that to buy a pack of 3 replacement blade cartridges.

    Like

  22. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    I like Jeopardy with the repeat champions. GFY

    Like

  23. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Walt – I am sorry to hear that Manny is struggling. I hope his last days are peaceful.

    Liked by 1 person

  24. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I was going to post the Lebron deal and say let the drama begin.

    Too bad the 76’s can only afford a has been.

    I guess Magic Johnson wasn’t available.

    Like

  25. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    ‘the most woke person I know is fleeing New York to move to high tax New Jersey to save money”

    Bitter knows a lot of woke persons, no doubt.

    In the past he claimed they could all afford to vote against their interests in the name of hating Trump.

    I guess times change.

    Like

  26. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    I guess Janzam forgot Trump was a liberal Dem for most of his life and was donating to Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid 4 years before he became President.

    Like

  27. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    F–k off Bunu.

    Like

  28. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Lol

    @CurtisHouck

    ·

    Trump with a legitimately great joke about CBS News under Bari Weiss and Iran… “While I have all of the press here in one place, I have to say that we’re having an amazing load of accomplishments that the media never talks about, for example, under my administration, a once feared and powerful regime that relentlessly attacked America has finally been toppled, their former leaders have been removed and they’re now being run by a gay dictator facing internal divisions, but I, for one wish Bari Weiss, all the best at CBS News. She’s a wonderful woman.”

    Like

  29. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Very true

    rump quipped that the news industry will “be broke” after he is no longer in office before saying he’d run for another term.

    “You people have no idea how lucky you are. When I’m gone, you’re all going to be broke. Your business model is going to be finished,” Trump said to the room of journalists. “There’s not going to be anybody to report on. Nobody gives a damn about anybody else.”

    Like

  30. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Advocating for term limits, Trump joked that a senator’s wife asked him to come up the stairs and “make love” to her, to which the senator replied: “I can’t do both.”

    Like

  31. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Is there hope for Janzam, Tina and Chicon the Putin sycophants who are also “bamboozled” by Russian propaganda? Hope springs eternal.

    “For years, Laura Loomer’s unflinching support for President Donald Trump was matched only by her fervent opposition to the US assisting Ukraine in its war against Russia.

    The far-right figure has accused Ukrainian soldiers of committing war crimes and President Volodymyr Zelensky of faking his Jewish faith. She once encouraged Russian President Vladimir Putin to seize the entire country.

    Yet, on Friday, Loomer released an exceedingly friendly 45-minute interview with Zelensky recorded in Kyiv where she praised the country’s drone tactics, acknowledged she spread falsehoods about the war and expressed regrets for amplifying narratives that benefited Russia.

    “I was bamboozled by Russian propaganda,” she told Zelensky, “and I came to believe a lot of untrue things about Ukraine.”

    The admission marked a stunning reversal by one of Trump’s most loyal allies — one the president appeared to immediately embrace. On Thursday, Trump shared a promotional clip of the interview on Truth Social and wrote: “Very good!!!”

    Like

  32. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Will Tina, Janzam and Chicon ever apologize for their years of spreading lies about Ukraine and Zelensky while supporting a despicable dictator like Putin and his atrocities in Ukraine?

    Not holding my breath.

    Like

  33. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    More bad news for Putin toadies Tina, Janzam and Chicon.

    Russia is suspending fuel exports because of domestic shortages.

    “Russia said Saturday it would extend a fuel export ban until the end of the year. 

    Ukrainian strikes on oil depots and refineries have caused unprecedented shortages and queues at petrol stations. 

    Ukraine has said its strikes are aimed at damaging Russia’s war effort and force the Kremlin to negotiate an end to its more than four-year offensive. ‘

    Liked by 1 person

  34. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Putin never envisioned in his wildest nightmares how this was going to turn out.

    Liked by 1 person

  35. DW Avatar
    DW

    I sometimes wonder of Tucker Carlson was a leftist plant all along. Pretend to be conservative for 15 years, get a huge following of conservative Republicans, then go fully anti-semetic, and pro-Putin, and see how many people can get pulled along after him and thereby split the conservative movement.

    Like

  36. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Laura Loomer wins the prize of being the most sycophantic “journalist” on the propaganda circuit. She plants herself around stories and people who will give her attention and publicity in return for being a servile flatterer of them. Her association with Trump exemplified this behavior. I think he has finally shed her from his inner circle, as she only served to be a negative influence in his political world. It’s not surprising she would then find another willing target to slobber over so people, like Jason, can use her for some sort of POV authorization and patronage of Zelensky.

    Like

  37. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Like

  38. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    The free passers are prolly happy that their idol stiffed contractors.

    Like

  39. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    Well, the $800 million defamation settlement by Dominion Voting Systems against Fox whereas Tucker Carlson, although not individually named, didn’t help Carlson nor losing almost 4 dozen high profile advertisers also didn’t help his image. He was rightly fired by Fox.

    The same could probably be said for some over at MS Now.

    Like

  40. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/1966/lebron-james

    Has been? Zzzzzzzz

    Like

  41. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Trump tried to stiff contractors, too. In business and as President.

    Like

  42. DW Avatar
    DW

    And all of those contractors and subcontractors who are blistering angry with Obama will show up in November and vote for every Democrat on the ballot. And if they forget to show up, someone will help them out and put their ballot in a drop box filled out for every Democrat.

    Liked by 1 person

  43. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Muh Trump. See never ever a mention of Hussein.

    Apparently one of the contractors put a lien on the garbage can.

    Like

  44. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Trump has openly talked about criticizing and not paying contractors who did shoddy work for him. Obama, OTOH, “library” monstrosity was plagued by cost overruns and he simply did not pay his subs – big difference.

    Like

  45. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Muh Trump. See never ever a mention of Hussein.

    Tina already posted about Obama. Did she need an Amen?

    Like

  46. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    How is this, Tina?

    Obama AND Trump both supported partial birth abortion, Planned Parenthood, Durbin, Reid, Ted Kennedy, Schumer, Pelosi, Bill Clinton, and many other Democrats. Trump donated more money.

    Like

  47. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Posting from Victoria, BC. GFYs

    Liked by 1 person

  48. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Janzam, Tina and Chicon will give Putin a free pass on this.

    Bet on it.

    “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday he will share evidence with the United States showing Russia is assisting Iran in targeting U.S. bases in the Middle East via satellite surveillance.

    “Since the beginning of July, we have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states and U.S. military facilities located there,” Zelenskyy said on X. “These images subsequently appear in Iran. At the same time, there is a clear correlation between Russia’s satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes — both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage inflicted.”

    Zelenskyy’s accusations of Russia helping Iran target U.S. troops are not the first. Multiple sources, including a senior U.S. official with direct knowledge, told CBS News six days into the war that Russia was providing intelligence to Iran regarding U.S. positions in the Middle East. 

    Like

  49. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    The Cult loved Laura Loomer when she was a Putin stooge.

    Now that she disavowed the same Russian propaganda the Cult is addicted to she is no longer useful.

    Like

  50. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Has been? Zzzzzzzz

    “There is currently only 1 active NBA player over 41 years old: LeBron James.”

    There is probably a reason for this.

    Like

  51. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Only here for 3 hours. Seems secure.

    Like

  52. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    There is probably a reason for this.

    There is. He’s mf-ing King James and still outscoring many in the league.

    Like

  53. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Jan, The free passers have no problem paying contractors that do shoddy work especially gubment ones.

    Like

  54. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    And a free passers to the diety that stiffed contractors for no apparent reason.

    more contractors will file liens against the trash can.

    Like

  55. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    I have no doubt Putin has been providing intelligence to Iran regarding American bases in the Middle East and been doing it for years. Absolutely they have and particularly since February.

    Like

  56. txphil1 Avatar
    txphil1

    Trump has now paused US military attacks on Iran for the second day in a row. So much for ramping up the military leverage. At least the blockade remains in effect. I guess that’s something.

    Liked by 1 person

  57. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    “Trump has now paused US military attacks on Iran for the second day”

    Is Trump Tacoing and it’s not even Tuesday?

    Like

  58. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Trump probably thinks everything is shoddy work if he can escape paying.

    We used to go to Trump’s Taj Mahal in Atlantic City. It looked glamorous as long as you did not look too closely.

    Like

  59. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    Sen Kennedy blasts Buffune. Buffune wants to circle jerk with Schumah.

    Like

  60. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Did the Space Needle even though I hate heights.

    Liked by 1 person

  61. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    There is probably a reason for this.

    There is. He’s mf-ing King James and still outscoring many in the league.”

    We will see.

    He said he can still sacrifice, still grind, still hustle and that the 76’s can win the NBA championship with him, so that sounds great.

    Of course, what else could he say?

    I don’t think “I am old, tired, and just want to end my career with a team with low expectations”?

    Nah.

    And of course “scoring” is great if it translates to wins.

    Since winning the title in 2020 his team:

    2021-22 Did not make playoff

    2022-23 Lost conf final

    2023 -24Lost in first round

    2024-25 Lost in first round

    2025-25 Lost in conf semi final

    But maybe he is the Tom Brady of basketball and still has it in him for more glory.

    Like

  62. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Tina was all for Trump stiffing contractors for work already completed but is worried about Obama’s contractors?

    Like

  63. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Thune should call Trump in and explain what “separation of powers” mean.

    Like

  64. jason yupanqui Avatar
    jason yupanqui

    Trump has now paused US military attacks on Iran for the second day in a row. So much for ramping up the military leverage”

    Phil was unhappy when Trump bombed Iran 11 days in a row.

    Phil is unhappy when Trump stopped bombing 2 days in a row.

    Yeah, there is a pattern here.

    Like

  65. John Goggin Avatar
    John Goggin

    My take on the Lebron James signing with the 76ers is obviously how much gas does he have in the tank. I remember Patrick Ewing signing with the Seattle SuperSonics at age 38 and basically didn’t have anything left.

    He’ll have some good players around him in Philadelphia, but he also had Luka Doncic as a teammate with the Lakers.

    Like

  66. janzam Avatar
    janzam

    Pinned

    Eric Daugherty

    @EricLDaugh

    ·

    BREAKING OVERNIGHT: Sen. Mike Lee will OFFICIALLY object to Leader Thune starting August recess until the SAVE America Act is passed It takes ONE SENATOR to block the automatic recess and ask for the YEAs and NAYs. LFG “I hereby object to any effort to put the Senate into recess in August—at least until such time as the Senate has passed the SAVE America Act—and hereby request a roll call vote. Do not assume you have my consent. You do not.”

    Like

  67. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    John – 21 ppg last season without much help. Also, the Lakers play in harder Western Conference. Easier road to the Finals in the East.

    Like

  68. Bitterlaw Avatar
    Bitterlaw

    Also, Maxey, Edgecomb and Brown can handle the ball. Embiid and James can own the paint.

    Like

  69. Tina Avatar
    Tina

    LOL -to be parroted here.

    @shepmjs

    ·

    MSM doesn’t know what to make of the bombing halt except “US is running out of missiles.” Dems are dying to post “Trump TACO” but are also hesitant

    Like

  70. retllaw Avatar
    retllaw

    WVians can always be counted on to send help. We do that when other parts of WV get hit by devastating floods.

    I think WVians can scrounge around in their basement s sheds, attics, trunks the ofb

    cars to find spare missile they could send to gov’t to be used to bomb Iran

    Like

Leave a comment