


Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 54.9 | -12.9 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.3 / 50.3 | -4.0 |
![]() | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |

First.
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LOL!!
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In negotiations now with United Feature Syndicate.
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Cygnal generic pole. Ds lead continues to dwindle
Cygnal went from 44R / 48D to 45R / 48D. Statistically, this is not significant.
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Jobless claims just surprised in a good way. Initial claims fell to 198k, well below expectations (consensus ~215,000) and near the lowest levels in years. The 4-week average is now at its lowest since early 2024, and continuing claims also ticked down.
Hiring cooled late last year, but companies still are not letting people go. The unemployment rate recently dipped to 4.4%. That is an important signal of labor market strength. We saw sentiment from this show up during the holidays too.
U.S. spending beat expectations. Mastercard +3.9% YoY, Visa +4.2%, NRF around 4.1% and over $1T in sales. A sign of consumer confidence despite a crazy year of headlines.
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