According to Emerson – 11/8-11/10 850 RV
 | ARIZONA |
| Biggs | 43 |
| Hobbs | 44 |
Same poll has Biggs running away with the GOP primary: Biggs 50, Taylor Robson 17, Schweikert 8
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
42 responses to “Tight Race for AZ Governor”
Trump really breaks people….
.
@SarahLongwell25
has Epstein questions: “One question is did Trump actively—we know he’s covering it up. We know he spent time with women who were victims. Do we know if he participated in the pedophile ring as it seems like maybe Prince Andrew did? And, well, did he kill him?”
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https://x.com/nickberoxbe1989/status/1989089225967653300
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If this is the best an MSM poll (IPSOS/REUTERS) can do I wouldn’t throw the towel in yet for 2026.
“When asked who they would vote for in congressional elections if the election were held today, neither party stood at a clear advantage. Forty-one percent of registered voters said they’d pick the Democratic candidate, and 40% said they would go for the Republican candidate − a difference that falls within the poll’s margin of error.”
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A warning sign is that 40% of Dems said they were very enthusiastic about voting in 2026 while only 26% of Rs said the same thing.
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Senator Kennedy:
I THINK HIS TESTICLES ARE ON BACK ORDER FROM CHINA”
@SenJohnKennedy slams Sen. Chuck Schumer — accusing him of being too afraid to stand up to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
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USAID was funding BBC?
https://x.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/1988786873138077892/photo/1
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Dems forced to take down post about Trump “having Thanksgiving Dinner with Epstein in 2019”
But now a new “bombshell” that Trump met with Epstein and ex-Prince Andrew in London in 2021.
Zzzzzzz……..
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“only 26% of Rs said the same thing.”
Trump is going to have to sell his accomplishments and somehow fire up the MAGA voters to get excited to come out and vote. Maybe every GOP candidate should legally change their names to Trump to see if that would help.
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That would be an impressive feat given Epstein died on 8/10/2019.
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Candidate quality matters.
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BreitbartNews
·
.
@SecRollins
drops multiple BOMBSHELLS: -SNAP is going to make EVERY recipient reapply to verify “they can’t survive without
it” -Benefits are being paid to nearly 200,000 dead people -Half a MILLION recipients are double-dipping “This is just data from 29 mostly red states. Can you imagine when we get our hands on the blue state data, what we’re going to find?”
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Buenos Dias – Didn’t someone say all elections are local. 40 seats will decide the House, as has been very thoughtfully conveyed on this site. At the end of the day all of it matters, candidate recruitment…economy…MAGA getting out to vote…Trump…fear of socialism (who would have thought that would come back to be in vogue)…but local issues will also matter
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On the new House seats page showing the current forecast per seat and which party is expected to win control, once polling rolls in for individual seats you will be able to click on the house seat label (i.e. AZ-1) and it will take you to the polls for that race.
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“Candidate quality matters.” Yes and No. Outgoing Atty General of Virginia Jason Miyares strongly disagrees.
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DW- Tina always blames the candidate unless Trump endorsed them. Oh wait. She still blames the candidate and never blames Trump for anything.
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The DNC calls the no taxes on tips “crumbs”.
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The path of others was mentioned. Here again was my path:
2016 GOP primary…desperately wanted someone other than Trump because I didn’t trust him to not destroy the GOP and then become Schumer’s lapdog should he somehow win. Given what we knew at the time, this was not an irrational position.
2016 General Election…I held my thumb over Trump’s name on the ballot as I voted GOP for every race. I decided on the way to the polls I would go ahead and reluctantly vote Trump/Pence.
2020 General Election…Voted Trump without any mental reservation.
2024 General Election…Voted Trump and took others with me to the polls to do the same in desperate effort to save the country from sure disaster
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Now that I finally figured out how to display the last five threads at the top, regardless the author, and have a consistent structure setup to display polling data…I feel like we are finally to the place where the page is more or less where it should be. Always looking for further improvements however.
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DW has the distinction of being more rabidly anti-Trump in 2016 than I was. His lists reasons Trump would lose were epic. So much so I saved them.
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list of reasons I should say.
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I tried to post one of his lists but it did not go.
Is it in moderation?
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I was wrong about 2016. I underestimated Trump’s ability to get a valid coalition, and overestimated the public’s perception of Hillary, and of course polling firms also badly missed 2016. Remember Hillary canceled the fireworks not to jinx it, but she sure was measuring the new white house curtains.
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Top 36 excuses given by Trump supporters for his failure and ultimate defeat:
1. The system was rigged [Janz]
2. The polls are wrong
3. The media was biased, lied about Trump [Janz]
4. Hillary cheated
5. The GOP establishment failed [Nick]
6. Talk radio is at fault
7. The voters are wrong
8. Pence failed
9. Too much outside money for Hillary [Janz]
10. Wives of white gun show males failed to show up.
11. The people wouldn’t accept Trump’s lies
12. Country won’t accept any more Reagans.
13. Ryan and McConnell undermined Trump.
14. Too many illegals voted.
15. Kasich rigged Ohio in favor of Hillary.
16. Poll workers committed fraud.
17. All the candidates would have done worse than Trump. [Janz]
18. The Jews used their influence in the media to hurt Trump.
19. Romney and McCain also lost. [AlbertHodges]
20. No Republican could have won this year–Hillary just too strong. [Janz]
21. I don’t know anybody who voted for Hillary
22. Bush convinced the Kochs to not fund Trump.
23. Cruz did too much damage with his convention speech.
24. Rubio didn’t endorse soon enough.
25. Polaris is always right, so Trump must have won.
26. Mrs. Donald was unfairly accused of plagarism.
27. Someone hacked Donald’s twitter–that wasn’t the #RealTrump.
28. The Russians failed to come through with Hillary e-mail dump.
29. Trump wasn’t a politician, so we had NO IDEA what he was like!
30. Who, me? I never supported Trump!
31. Khan was a set up by liberals and establishment Republicans to make Trump look bad
32. Voters forgot to re-weigh themselves to match re-weighted polls.
33. #NeverTrump Repubicans cost Trump the election. [The godfather]
34. Hillary’s health ended up being too good. [JeffP]
35. Hacked data failed to doom Hillary. [JeffP]
36. Trump flipped on immigration.
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That was DW on August 30, 2016, for some reason it won’t let me post the comment with the date.
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I had forgotten all about “Karate Chop” Kasich!
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Ok, now I will entertain you guys with MD shilling for none other than Sarah Palin!
August 30, 2008
Mdefl says:
Damn,
Palin is good. Hit the nail squarely on the head and has figured out how to use new media to maximum effect. In 2016, it will be Madame President, Sarah Palin.”
Mdefl says
Gang,
You have to see this interview CNBC did with Palin a couple of weeks ago. This lady knows the energy issues like the back of her hand. I don’t know, I think energy just might be an important issue now. Just a wild guess on my part. The lady is a winner!
Mdefl says
Biden is in deep, deep trouble in the debates but I still hope that the Dems keep knocking her experience. That plays right into our hands
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Jeffrey Epstein claimed that Hillary Clinton had a sexual relationship with former attorney and White House counsel Vince Foster.”
Nah, THAT cannot be true.
Only emails about Trump are true.
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Foster had the intestinal fortitude to sleep with Hillary but not the will to resist suicide?
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LOL, that made me laugh
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Far left pollster IPSOS/Reuters gave us a D+1 generic ballot…now…
Republican firm Cygnal goes the other way:
Democrats 50
Republicans 44
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My wife was genuinely surprised in being awarded the Citizen of Year from the county Chamber of Commerce.
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Congrats to Mrs. Walt! Well deserved I am sure.
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I wish these pollsters would get smart and do a generic ballot only from congressional districts that are competitive. There could pick the top 50 and start churning out tracking polls from just those 50. That would tell us much more than ensuring they get in their samples voters from 90/10 dem or gop districts.
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Neopolitan News/RMG poll | 11/5-11/13 RV
President Trump approval Disapprove 50% (-1) Approve 49% (+3)
An improvement since their last one in late oct.
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Yep, a national generic is pretty meaningless.
I would say a Dem lead of 5 points means it is tied in swing states, any lead under 5 favors Rs.
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The Palin pick was very popular on HHR, even a Dem named Gnasher said he was “panicked”.
Things changed later when the MSM ganged up on her, but the initial reaction was glowing.
rdelbov
This was a grand slam pick.
an absolute wonderful pick
wes
To all the “Palin’s not qualified” Kool-Aid drinkers on here, Sarah Palin first won elective office in 1992. In Alaska, I believe the elected officials take office in December rather than January. Obama was elected to the state legislature in 1996. This means Palin first took elected office 49 months before Obama. Palin then defeated a three-term incumbent Mayor on a platform of cleaning up the city they lived in 1996–just as Obama cruised to a safe legislative seat with only token opposition. Palin crushed the former Mayor in her reelection bid. Then because of her rising profile in the state, she faced two heavyweight politicos in 2006. In the primary, she faced incumbent Governor Frank Murkowski, who had had a decades-long political career in Alaska with no losses. She easily dispatched him then faced former Governor Tony Knowles, the most durable Dem since the 1970s in Alaska politics, who had beaten a Republican in 1994 and won handily his reelection bid in 1998 before coming just a few thousand votes shy of toppling Lisa Murkowski for Senate in 2004. She beat him by 6 points and now has an 80%+ approval rating in the state. Obama never has faced a serious electoral challenge either in his bid for State Senate or in his bid for national Senate and has 4 fewer years of elective experience than Palin. If the Marxist Dems want to get into the experience debate, then McCain needs to put a Bush quote into a new context: “Bring it on!”
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Walt hasn’t been this proud since one of his women won “Concubine of the Year” in Constantine the Great’s court in 329 AD.
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And 600 years before that, it was very early in Alexander’s Macedonian army, back when they just called him Alex and he was only mediocre.
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Congratulations to Mrs. Walt. Good thing she gave Walt the night off to attend the dinner or he would have been home doing chores.
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and now one of the better pollsters last year, Quantus and their generic ballot:
Democrats 44, Republicans 39
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A district judge just ruled that the annual State of the Union speech by President Trump is canceled, and in it’s place will be the Democratic Party rebuttal speech.
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new thread
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