It’s early, but looks like Dems well on the way to flip Tillis’ seat.
 | NORTH CAROLINA |
| Whatley | 38 |
| Cooper | 47 |
| Carolina Journal/Harper | 11/9 – 11/10 | 600 LV | 4.0 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
55 responses to “GOP NC Senate Seat Gone?”
Zzzzz….. polls with 15% undecided are trash.
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Dems out with new email where Epstein calls Trump the worst person in the world.
So I guess that ends the narrative that they were best buddies?
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We don’t even know if the redacted name is Virginia Giuffre… but even if it is Virginia, and even if she has said Trump didn’t do anything wrong, the American people should believe their eyes: “We’ve all seen the photographs of Donald Trump with underage girls sitting on his lap.”
She doesn’t mention the underage girl was Ivanka.
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LOL
https://x.com/HawaiiGuy57/status/1988996316144496846/photo/1
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This is bad news, but glad he is ok
Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania was hospitalized early Thursday after suffering a fall near his home in Braddock, according to a statement from his office.
“During an early morning walk, Senator Fetterman sustained a fall near his home in Braddock,” the statement, which his office posted to X, read. “Out of an abundance of caution, he was transported to a hospital in Pittsburgh.”
The statement continued, “Upon evaluation, it was established he had a ventricular fibrillation flare-up that led to Senator Fetterman feeling light-headed, falling to the ground and hitting his face with minor injuries. Senator Fetterman had this to say: ‘If you thought my face looked bad before, wait until you see it now!’”
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To tell you the truth, I saw Fetterman giving an interview the other day and he didn’t sound as good as he had recently. I remember thinking I hope he is ok.
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Smells like BS, but if true it is pretty sick.
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The party of tolerance and diversity would love to be able to get rid of Fetterman and replace him with far left lunatic, because they cannot stand anything else or dissenting voices.
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Oh yes, I am sure the same people who gave Biden a pass will be out there calling on Fetterman to resign.
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Eric Swallwhole referred to doj for tax and mortgage fraud.
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The same Dems who attacked voters who questioned Fetterman’s health and ability to serve after his stroke during the election when he ran now say he is voting in support of Trump because of his stroke.
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Bitter,
I will not be applying for the job at the steel plant (steel sheets) in Mason county WV on the Ohio River.
A seven hour commute would be tough on even me.
Now there is ANOTHER small steel plant (rebar rods, I think) that is being built right here in Berkeley County about 120 minutes from where I live. But I doubt they will be hiring any 78 year olds….
:PSST…tonight is the night of the Chamber of Commerce dinner where my wife will be receiving the “Citizen of the Year” award.’
Keep the secret….
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Played bridge again today.’
Came in second.
I rely a lot on luck and LOC.
(LOC is Lay Of the Cards)
Took my $3 winnings and bought two donuts for $2.38 and $44 worth of gas.
So I still went in the hole today…
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Added a page for the 2026 US House races. Right now I just don’t see any path for the GOP to retain control. Not given the current environment. The 216 GOP to 219 DEM may actually be the GOP’s ceiling. It could get worse. Much worse.
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DW – Can Trump run for Congress in all 435 districts? It is the only way MAGA will come out.
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It’s way too early to make predictions on the House.
Remember the “red wave” that never happened in 2022?
We have to see how the redistricting battles sort out, including legal challenges.
There are plenty of paths for the GOP to retain control, and many where they could
lose too. Much will depend on the economy and other factors.
But saying the GOP “has no path” is complete speculation.
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The race for the house is a lot like the race for the Presidency, which came down to 7 swing states.
There are probably only 40 really competitive house races so the old swings where one party or the other made big gains is a lot harder now.
However, having said that, I am worried about my own rep, Rick Perry. He barely won against a fake moderate with a lot of name recognition (she is a former local TV anchor). He is too conservative for the district (includes parts of greater Harrisburg with a lot of Dems) and the Dems are spending a lot of money early. Billboards everywhere attacking him on healthcare and prices and even claiming he is “denying insurance to truckers”.
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Jason, I did say “Not given the current environment.” The environment can change, and I hope it does. But run now we are way down on the generic ballot, The left is full of vote-motivating hate, and MAGA voters don’t think they have to vote because Trump will magically fix everything.
I would be thrilled if in the coming months I can paint a better picture here due to circumstances changing. But I am going to post reality, not wish-casting. Let other site do that.
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Zzzzz…. sorry, that dog won’t hunt.
We are a year away from the midterms, we don’t know how the redistricting battle with sort out or how the economy will look lik, so eeyoring the election now is foolish.
Generic ballot? Puhhhleeze, a few points down (4 pts on RCP) at this point is completely and utterly meaningless a year before the election.
The left has always hated Trump, he still won, and the election in NYC, VA and NJ were hardly indicative of the MAGA vote, these are blue areas where the R winning would have been a surprise.
There will be plenty of time to jump on the gloom bandwagon, but this is not the time.
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Actually, most of the redistricting stuff is finished and locked in. I know that we COULD gain one more in MO if the map survives the courts and survives an attempt to make it a ballot measure which would effectively kill it for next year.
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I know there is a historical truism that the party in power always loses the midterms.
But there have been exceptions, and the last 3 elections have shown very close margins, exactly because competitive seats are dwindling.
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I am just trying to present an honest picture of what would happen if the election were today. I know very well it is not. And I expect things will change for the better and worse, and probably multiple times over the next year. So far there has been only ONE poll of a head-to-head house race (NH_02).
But candidate quality will matter too, and none of the primaries have happened. So I agree there are a lot of variables.
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Actually, most of the redistricting stuff is finished and locked in.”
Far from it. VA wants to redistrict, we don’t know how successful that will be.
There is a legal challenge to CA Prop 50, and in other states too.
The map could be very different still.
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Even if the election were held today, a 4 pt generic advantage to the Dems is no guarantee.
This is because Dems “waste” a lot of votes in districts they are sure to win, same as how they needed more than a 2 pt advantage in national polls to win the Presidential election.
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However, I hope RNCC and the GOP candidates and the donors see it your way and organize and campaign like they are far behind.
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On the positive side, DNC workers don’t really want to work.
https://redstate.com/katie-jerkovich/2025/11/13/dnc-tells-workers-time-to-return-to-the-office-and-hilarity-ensued-n2196187
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We were home in 2020 and we still won”
Great argument there!
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IF. the Democrats take the House and Senate in large numbers and every candidate only runs ads that say Vote for Me Because Trump Sucks, Jason and Tina will say the election had nothing to do with Trump.
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Zzzzzz…..
The Dems already tried that many times and it failed each time.
There is no greater loser for Dems than running against Trump. They have spent 10
years trying everything under the sun to defeat him, indict him, impeach him, ridicule him, jail him, shame him, nothing worked.
So yeah, I think doing the same thing over and over and hoping for a different outcome is stupid.
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Seattle’s new mayor Katie Wilson: “We will not allow grocery chains to close stores at will”
There we go.
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Rs have won at least 2 of the last 3 elections because of Trump.
In 2024 he won the popular vote for the first time since 2004 for Rs.
Trump’s “unpopularity” is greatly overstated.
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Hopefully, betting against Trump will cost Bitter some money again, the dogs over at the York Aspca are always hungry.
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When Rs win, it’s never because of Trump.
When Rs lose, it’s always because of Trump.
Zzzzzzzz….
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I have read for years here about how “Trump hatred” is such a big factor.
I always yawned and sure enough Trump wins all 7 swing states, the popular vote, a record number of black and Hispanic votes, a record number of young people’s vote. He improves his performance in 48 of the 50 states over 2020. This after being impeached again, maligned for sedition, ordered to pay 90 million for defamation, ordered to pay 400 million for fraud, indicted on 90 felonies, convicted of 14 felonies, you name.
So pardon me if i take “Trump hatred” with a grain of salt.
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The Dems already tried that many times and it failed each time…except in Virginia, New Jersey and NYC last week.
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Trump is 2/3 (officially) when Trump is on the ballot. Trump will not be on the ballot in 2026 when MAGA stays home in close states. Again.
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The Dems also won 2 Senate seats – 2 – in the same year in GEORGIA running against Trump.
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DW, Another thing that we should all be hoping for is a quick and favorable Supreme Court decision in the Louisiana case (Louisiana v. Callais) . This could enable Republicans to eliminate or redraw minority voting districts before the 2026 midterm elections.
It has been estimated that up to 19 Democratic-held House seats, currently protected under Section 2, are targeted and would likely flip if redrawn in GOP-led states prior to the 2026 elections if the decision is rendered early in 2026.. Of course it’s unlikely, but we can dream, can’t we?
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The Dems also won 2 Senate seats – 2 – in the same year in GEORGIA running against Trump”
BS
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except in Virginia, New Jersey and NYC last week.”
A Democrat won in NYC, NJ and VA.
Blame Trump…..
Zzzzz….
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Bitter is at war with himself.
He claims Trump is hated and unpopular, but then admits Rs do better when he is on the ballot.
That is one heck of an “unpopularity”
Hilarious.
Here is the deal, the Dems have spent 10 years running against Trump.
He is President, the Senate is R and the House is R.
He appointed 3 SCOTUS judges.
Like I said, “Trump hatred” is grossly overrated.
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DW, Another thing that we should all be hoping for is a quick and favorable Supreme Court decision in the Louisiana case (Louisiana v. Callais) . This could enable Republicans to eliminate or redraw minority voting districts before the 2026 midterm elections.”
It could also void some of the minority districts Prop 50 is creating in CA.
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Mandani didn’t win running against Trump.
He won by promising more freebies than anyone else. sxdaS
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I guess you didn’t read the NY Post coverage. Trump was one Mandani theme.
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but then admits Rs do better when he is on the ballot.
Because Trump’s MAGA voters ALSO vote for R candidates down ballot. Are you really this stupid?
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Jason has been on a strange journey starting in 2015. He was Never Trump! along with MD and did not vote for Trump. In 2020, he did vote for Trump. In 2024, he had to be begged to vote for Trump because Trump chose Vance. Now he claims Trump is this unknown figure floating above the political fray.
Trump got my vote 3 times.
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I think you should be compensated for having your rights violated.
Sue me.
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Yes, but not this way. A special carve out for senators.
it’s a bad look
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Now he claims Trump is this unknown figure floating above the political fray.”
He is not above the political fray.
My point is that “running against Trump” has been a losing proposition for 10 years.
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Good news here, considering IPSOS/Reuters normally finds bad news for us:
Reuters/Ipsos – Generic Ballot
11/7 – 11/12
938 RV
Democrats 41
Republicans 40
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The generic has been good to us. Toss out the nbc pole, it is +1 either way, or even.
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May have been a faux pole. Anyway, I don’t pay attention to nbc and faux news poles.
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New Thread
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https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1989336997484237035
I wonder if this is the 700,000 reduction in. Snap reciepients mentioned by the administration
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