Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 41.6 / 55.6 | -14.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 45.5 / 52.1 | -6.6 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +21 | 207 | 228 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
34 responses to “Time to turn off the lights.”
The Boston Fed sez….”Turning to the 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on China, we estimate an inflation impact of 0.5 to 0.8 percentage point.”
Now, what happens if decreased oil prices and easing government regulation (among many other inputs) put downward pressure on inflation?
Maybe the HHR Economic Illuminati can opine…..
https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2025/the-impact-of-tariffs-on-inflation
Chicon
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Btw, that % increase is to core inflation, not the full inflation rate.
Chicon
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That paper is almost 2 months old, before Trump modified and increased the scope of his tariffs . I would think they would predict a far worse impact to inflation with a current revision. Then again, if I had a buck for every wrong prediction by the Fed, I’d be loaded. Check out their transitory inflation treatises back in June 2021. You know, right before we went into the worst entrenched inflation since the 1970s. Your macro view is correct, but if the Boston Fed gets this one right, and you are a greater consumer of the items and products bearing the full brunt of their perceived cost increases, your personal inflation will be higher and more important than the more modest CPI average that you surmise.
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NEW: Elon Musk says that the United States Institute of Peace deleted a terabyte of financial data linking them to funding the Taliban and Iraqi leaders but he and the DOGE team were able to recover the data due to the agency’s ineptitude with technology.
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I’m more bummed about the fact that I just learned that the guy who played Tommy is now going deaf and blind, just like Tommy. Man, do I feel old –
https://nypost.com/2025/03/31/entertainment/roger-daltrey-the-who-frontman-going-deaf-and-blind-at-81/
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https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/scotus-must-stop-leftist-judges-lawless-sabotage-trump-agenda
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saw that Tina. The data also revealed financial abuses like exorbitant staff travel and other crazy perks. Unreal
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/march-sees-another-record-low-illegal-border-crossings/
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Not on the topic of tariffs, but…perhaps you all will find this enlightening…
My county is an example of issues with providing education NOW as compared to 60 years ago…
***********************
BERKELEY COUNTY SCHOOLS (states on personnel) [2nd largest school system in WV]
3021 total employees Berkeley County Schools (in 2025).
About 20,000 students.
37 buildings (33 schools, 1 central office building, 1 central bus garage, 1 maintenance building, 1 Special Ed administration building
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TO PROVIDE TRANSPORTATION:
240 bus drivers/ 1 Supv. of Transportation
TO PROVIDE MEALS:/
154 One Child Nutrition Director/plus cafeteria managers/cooks/Dietician
BUILDING MAINTENANCE/CUSTODIAL:
109 custodians
27 carpenters, electricians, plumbers, crew leaders, mechanics, print operator, foreman, general maintenance
CENTRAL OFFICE:
61 One Supt./5 Asst. Supts./ plus Adm. Asst./Directors/Managers/Coordinators/Treasurer (and besides salaries and other normal benefits, about 5 vehicles provided with tax dollars for Supt, Dir. of Transp, and some others)
33 Academic Coaches/Curriculum Specialists/Technology, Integration Specialists (some number of these may work at specific schools)
19 Attendance Director/Attend. Officers/Social Workers/Truancy Diversion Specialists
13 Technology System specialists
9 Accountants/Accountant II
(plus some of the secretaries listed below that work in the BCS system)
SCHOOL ADMINISTRATION:
33 principals
47 Assistant/Associate Principals
102 secretaries (some of these would be at central office)
EDUCATING STUDENTS: (1284 classroom teachers, Pre-K thru 12th grade)
418 Elementary School Classroom Teachers (does NOT include spec. Ed teachers there)
278 Special Education Teachers [more SPED teachers in county that all the high school curriculum teachers COMBINED (English, social studies, math, science, Health Phys Ed, the arts, etc.,etc, in the 4 large high schools) [Oh, and BTW, the federal govt provides funding for about 1/3 of the COST–(incl. for teachers and aides)–of students with special needs and special Ed eats up close to 1/3 of the budget each year]
256 High School Teachers (does NOT include the special Ed teachers at the high schools)
222 Middle School Teachers (does NOT include spec. Ed. teachers located in elem school)
173 ECCAT Permanent Authorization (Early Childhood Classroom Assistant Teacher) [ECAT was created by the state legislature 2 or 3 years ago for grades 1, 2, and 3–one ECAT per classroom]
143 Aides [some of these are school or teacher aids, many (most) are special Ed aides]
113 ECCAT Temporary Authorization (Early Childhood classroom Assistant Teacher) [temporary meaning they are full time employees, but not yet fully certified as permanent]
110 Pre-K and Kindergarten teachers
27 Librarians
STUDENT SUPPORT SERVICES:
63 Counselors
52 Psychologists/Speech Pathologists/Speech Assistants
49 Autism Mentors/Paraprofessionals
35 School Nurses/LPN
30 Student Social & Emotional Support Specialists/Physical Therapists/Occupational Therapists
…and a smattering of other employees like police officers stationed in schools, Athletic Directors, etc.
>>>>>>>>>>>
Sixty years ago in 1965 we did NOT have a lot of these positions. There were NO Autism specialists, NO Special Ed teachers, NO preK, NO Kindergarten, NO Early Childhood Classroom Assistant Teachers, Very Few Aides (if any), No Technology Systems Specialists, NO Technology Integration Specialists, NO Paraprofessionals, NO Academic Coaches, No Athletic Directors, etc.,etc. And we maybe had one (not 5) Asst Supts. and much fewer (if any) Vice Principals in schools.
Society changes, and the need to add positions in BC Schools changes as the public, society, courts and legislators demand / require schools do more and more things. And in 1965 we did not have the illegal drug scourge, higher divorce rate, higher single parent families, higher children classified as homeless, higher societal violence and threats, mental health disfunction (of parents and students), higher number of students with English as a second language, higher rates of autism and special needs students as we do now.
HOW do you fix this?
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Retlaw asks- how do you fix this?
Answer – homeschool your kids. In this day and age, sending your kids to public school is the equivalent of child abuse.
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I predict the Dem will win the SC set in Wisc.
Will be pleasantly surprised if the D does not win…
Have no clue about the special election in FLA…
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FLA2025,
Hard for a typical working family to home school with both parents working full time jobs.
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very true, Retlaw. Your next option is to push hard for school vouchers and send your kids to a well researched private school. If you go religious, like Catholic, you immediately avoid all the LGBTQ indoctrination and maybe the kids spend more time focusing on math and reading.
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Chicon,
The Boston Fed analysis looked at the marginal effect of imposition of tariffs, all else equal (ceteris paribus to economists). That doesn’t mean that overall inflation will turn out to be the same as the marginal effect.
Perhaps the tanks Egypt is massing in the Sinai Desert move and attack Israel. We could have a full-scale war in Palestine and petroleum prices would skyrocket. The inflationary effect of a doubling of oil prices would overwhelm any impact from the tariffs.
Or, how about this one. When the Biden administration handed out $3-5 trillion to households long after the Covid recession was over, people started spending that money. After a couple of months, prices started to rise quickly. Any impact from tariff changes by the Biden administration could not have been seen as the inflationary impact of the helicopter drop (of money) overwhelmed any trade changes.
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Walt, I agree that the Dem will win in WI. Probably a point or two.
The special elections in Florida will be wins for the Republicans, but by significantly smaller margins than in November.
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Bill sez…That doesn’t mean that overall inflation will turn out to be the same as the marginal effect.
Exactly.
Chicon
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Hi Bitter,
Are you going to put up an election thread? We have the Wisconsin Supreme Court and those two Florida US House of Representatives special elections happening today.
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retlaw,
Early voting numbers heavily favor GOP in Fl elections today.
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I will be here to blame trump when the R loses the Wi Sc race.
-free passer
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I will be here to blame trump when the R loses the Wi Sc race.”
LOL
Tina the Cultist wants to preemptively absolve Trump.
So who should we blame?
If everyone who voted for Trump voted for the R, he would win.
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@ProfMJCleveland
Trump Derangement Syndrome” has mutated into “Trump Derangement Judging.”
·
11.9K Views
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I would be pleasantly surprised if the R won WI.
It’s an important race, will affect everything from gun rights to redistricting.
Betting markets have it about 8-1 for the Dem, it is a tempting bet.
I think Rs will win the 2 FL races.
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They always said that sosh security and Medicare had massive fraud. The gop-e looked the other way sadly,
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1906526419079082173
– Democrats did give MILLIONS of illegals Social Security Numbers
– They were REGISTERING TO VOTE
– Elon Musk has confirmation THEY DID VOTE
– Democrats qualified illegals for MAX SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS
– They enrolled in Medicaid with their new Social Security Numbers
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Yes.
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JUST IN: Elon Musk launches GET OUT THE VOTE operation for Tuesday’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race in support of Brad Schimel. This is a PAID get out the vote – $20 for each person you recruit. AND – that voter themselves can get $20 if they submit a photo near the polling location. Recruiting 100 people = $200 bonus + the title of “Block General” “You can sign up to be a block captain for your zip code on the America PAC website right now. If you do, it’s $20 for taking a photo with somebody. Knock on doors, give them a digital or paper picture of Brad Schimel.” “They just have to go thumbs up and hold a picture of Brad Schimel, and you get $20. It’s easy.” “The whole point of it is to just make people aware of the election… please vote!”
Dems will whine Musk is “buying the election”
They won’t mention $200 to protest Tesla.
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I turned the lights off.
Nothing happened.
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“Tim Walz Says He Is Prone to ‘Being a Trainwreck’”
We should thank him for not announcing this before he was picked for VP.
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ssq stole my post.
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Jounalism in America:
Lesley Stahl had the audacity to ask a Jewish hostage, who was tortured and starved by Hamas, if Hamas really meant to starve him or if they just didn’t have enough food”
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Arrest the employees
@amuse
DOGE: The DOGE team fought for days to gain access to the United States Institute of Peace. Eventually, with help from the FBI and Metro Police DOGE was able to access the agency and discovered massive fraud, waste and abuse-including payments to Taliban and Iraq.
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Another example of an incompetent or maybe compromised judge:
CannCon
@CannConActual
BREAKING: After an 8 year-long battle in Federal courts, spanning the two separate voting systems (Diebold and Dominion), Federal Judge Amy Totenberg has DISMISSED the Curling v Raffensperger case for “lacking jurisdiction”. It took this judge EIGHT YEARS to determine her Court didn’t have jurisdiction!? How many MILLIONS of dollars were squandered by both
@MarilynRMarks1
and
@VoterGa
AND the taxpayers of Georgia!? This judge waited ONE YEAR since the trial ended before issuing this Order.
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Todd Bensmen is tentatively positing that Trump’s tariff policy with Mexico has been working to decrease the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. It is being reported that fentanyl coming across the border has been reduced 50% since Trump came into office. It is also being reported that the cartels are looking to shipping their product now to Europe.
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The 4 soldiers missing in Lithuania have been found dead, supposedly because their heavy vehicle tipped over in a swampy area and they drowned. Very sad…..
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New Thread
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