Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
164 responses to “Welcome to the antiquated WordPress blog – Afternoon edition”
First
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Second
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In Florida, the number of Registered Republicans is:
5,455,480
Dems:
4,400,561
A difference of about 1,054,000.
Right now in Florida, GOP ballots:
4,290,041
Dem ballots:
3,158,411
A difference of 1,131,630
A gap larger than the party ID gap, meaning DEMS are simply not turning out as much as Rs. The larger the gap continues to grow, the more it has to be true that Ds have a turnout problem.
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Bueller? Bueller?
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The Atlantic says people threatening to leave if Trump wins ARE SERIOUS this time.
Hey Dumbchuck, any more room in mommy’s basement?
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I am sure Musk can setup a fund to pay for their one-way tickets.
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Victor Joecks
@VictorJoecks
With Rural NV showing up strong and big lead heading into EDay, Rs will take this.
If Rs won EDay like they did in 2022, you’d be looking at a landslide.
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not sure why there are any comparisons being done to 2022. Congressional elections totally different from POTUS, and cannot compared to 2020 due to covid voting.
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Who is Victor Joecks?
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not sure oa, but Baris linked him:
Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
·
11m
Something has got to change for Democrats in Nevada, very soon. The required margin among indies was already approaching wishful-thinking, but this will get more ridiculous to entertain with every passing hour if this persists.
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thanks, DW.
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Dem gains in Clark just jumped to +1,449 for the day. The left is gleeful. But they are ignoring the rest of the state that more than accounts for that gain in Clark.
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umpWarRoom
Tampon Tim says he hasn’t spoken to Kamala in a couple of days, but recalls seeing her last week: “I got the chance to run in Philly and I ran up those stairs like Rocky or whatever”
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DW, I don’t want to focus on FL too much, but that gap has widened to 1,143,xxx now.
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I am focused on Florida only because they provided the data, and its a large state, and Dems claim to have made a play there, AND because most polling showed only a Trump win of 4 to 7 points.
If there is a huge polling miss there….
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What happened to Polaris?
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So far, these FLORIDA polls are not aging well:
RMG Research 10/14-10/17; 788 LV
Trump 52, Harris 47
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 10/16-10/18; 1,275 LV
Trump 49, Harris 45
St. Pete Polls 10/23-10/25; 1,227 LV
Trump 50, Harris 45
Cygnal 10/26-10/28; 600 LV
Trump 48, Harris 43
Morning Consult 10/23-11/1; 2,022 LV
Trump 51, Harris 46
Victory Insights 11/1-11/2; 400 LV
Trump 51, Harris 47
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My DW voted for the first time every in her life. It was for Trump and straight ticket GOP due to her concerns over illegal immigration.
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for what its worth:
Rep. John Block
@RepBlock
🚨 VOTE!!! According to analysis of voting performance numbers as of 9am, Republicans are SO CLOSE to flipping New Mexico RED (about 8,000 votes). But we need to show up and vote. While calling for candidates, I have heard a lot of R’s are planning on voting tonight after work (5pm). So, please stay in line and keep voting. It’s INSANE how close we are to flipping the state, y’all!!!
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The voters let him down too often.
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I don’t know where the people threatening to leave the US are going to go. Other nations enforce their immigration laws.
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My DW voted for the first time every in her life.”
You have a DW too?
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Patrick Ruffini
@PatrickRuffini
·
20m
I have yet to see a piece of unambiguously good news for the Democrats in early voting data or any places reporting live turnout on Election Day but I don’t want to have blinders on.
Hit me up with Dem good news, but no modeled partisanship.
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If there is a huge polling miss there….”
Exactly.
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I see the Guam legislature did flip to red…
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Daugherty [sic] posted that Rs are outperforming Dems in PIma County, AZ.
Eric Daugherty on X: “R+13K today in Pima County, AZ. That has got to sting, given the huge Maricopa margin for Repubs today…” / X
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Hmmmm…..
Elon Musk to reportedly spend election night with Trump at Mar-a-Lago
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Is Melania away?
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As a reference point, Biden won Pima by 93k on 2020 (58-39).
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Anybody know what this guy is whining about? Is turnout low in Cleveland?
https://x.com/BoneDoctorJD/status/1853861936691282369
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One thing is for sure, the data that allegedly showed the GOP doing better banking early the low-propensity vote must have been correct. Obviously the GOP has a lot left in the tank in FL, AZ, and NV.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
PRESIDENTIAL BELLWETHER ALERT: Duval County, Florida has voted to the left of Georgia in every recent U.S. presidential election.
Duval County TOTAL votes: REP: 41.4% (+3.1) DEM: 38.4% NPA: 17.5%
Trump LOST Duval in 2020…. something to watch here.
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“I see the Guam legislature did flip to red…”
No one ever reads my posts. I may be deaf, but the rest of you people are blind.
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For Pima County what are the breakdown for early voting. It is all well and good for that the GOP leads in election day voting but that is only valid after we take early voting numbers into account when comparing to Biden +16 in 2020.
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Is this safe Philly or unsafe?
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The entire Trump crew is in FL, including Musk & Bobby Kennedy, awaiting the outcome of the election.
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https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1853901218009026827
Morris County, NJ
GOP 40K
Dems 24K
Others 29K
election day vote. Back in 2020 it was Biden +5
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“I see the Guam legislature did flip to red…”
No one ever reads my posts. I may be deaf, but the rest of you people are blind.”
Hey A-hole, you said the exit polls were showing that.
I confirmed that it really happened.
GFY.
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How come Doltz and quemala did not speak during the last week? Makes no sense.
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lection day vote. Back in 2020 it was Biden +5″
If NJ goes more Trump than expected that is definitely good for PA
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Trump up to 62% at Polymarket.
This means there are no exit polls favorable to Kamala being leaked so far.
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Whoops…
NEW: CNN says they’re running into a lot of silent Trump voters in Virginia who are afraid to be interviewed. Virginia Trump supporters are refusing interviews in fear of their Democrat friends finding out. “There were many who said that they were planning to vote for Trump or they had voted for Trump.” “However, when it came to sharing their views on camera, they didn’t want to.”
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E Day votes – Morris County, NJ
🔴 Republicans – 40k
🔵 Democrats – 24k
🟡 Other – 29k
2020 – 🔵 Biden +5
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The dam on the betting sites might break one way or another soon, unless it really IS very close.
IF it isn’t, there will be enough leaks to tank the markets.
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How come Doltz and quemala did not speak during the last week?”
She lives in DC. He lives in MN. Hard to get together.
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If CNN asked me I would say Trump and tell people my home address. Living in fear is not my thing.
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jason, I can attest to that here in Virginia. There is grave fear that if Harris wins, and it was found out they voted for Trump, or worse, they put a Trump yard sign up, that they will be persecuted for it. Not an illegitimate fear.
Back before the first attempt on Trump’s life, he did a rally here in Virginia, and it was packed, but I knew personally of people who refused to attend out of this same fear. No yard sign, no responding to polls, etc.
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Ask Jason.
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Arizona now Trump 80-20 at Polymarket.
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So, Rs don’t poll and R don’t do exit surveys.
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According to Selzer, R’s dont poll or do exit surveys unless they live in Iowa and are supporting Harris.
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This looks like MAGA. I just don’t know if it’s ultra Maga or regular Maga.
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It could also be dark Maga.
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I think I saw Lupita in one of the pictures….
Chicon
https://redstate.com/beckynoble/2024/11/05/unlikely-voters-could-be-key-for-trump-in-all-important-pennsylvania-n2181584
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AMISH!
https://redstate.com/beckynoble/2024/11/05/unlikely-voters-could-be-key-for-trump-in-all-important-pennsylvania-n2181584
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Jaichind, here is the tally on Pima EV; basically, D=47k, I don’t know yet what 2020 was.
Sam Almy on X: “Apologies for not highlighting Pima County today. @PimaRecorder is posing their totals by party here: https://t.co/8piUpdRkhf Total: 79,829 Dem: 19,070 GOP: 31,416 Other: 29,406″ / X
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LOL
JUST NOW – REPORTER TO TRUMP: Do you have any regrets about your campaign? TRUMP: To use Kamala’s expression, “I can’t think of any.”
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It will be interesting to get the chopper press conferences again.
make press conferences great again.
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Damm, A-hole candidate beat me by seconds.
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This is 3 hours old..
https://x.com/MitchGoat70/status/1853892812099523059/photo/1
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The Calvin Coolidge Project
@TheCalvinCooli1
·
54m
🚨New: Fox News John Roberts said Harris needs to have 700,000 votes in Philadelphia in order to pull out the win in Pennsylvania.
In 2016 Clinton got 560,542 votes
In 2020 Biden got 603,790 votes
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This won’t tell you much, but it is out of WI
https://x.com/wiz_political/status/1853877080649576481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853877080649576481%7Ctwgr%5Eaf062b2666193eea6c5b5907b2d70a51b335a933%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Famy-curtis%2F2024%2F11%2F05%2Fsecond-wisconsin-update-n2403309
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Dem lead increased again in Clark:
Dr. John R. Samuelsen
@JohnRSamuelsen
·
14m
EDay Turnout – Clark County, NV
11/5/2024 – 12:50pm
Dem 25,304 (31.5%) +2,106
Rep 23,198 (28.9%)
Other 31,742 (39.6%)
Total 80,244
–But they keep pretending the other counties don’t exist.
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Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports
@Mark_R_Mitchell
·
17m
Everybody is watching Nevada Indies.
I had them breaking Trump by 4 points FWIW.
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If Clark indies are really +6 they get a few more votes out of the 31k indies but not much.
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don’t look now but huge movement in Wisconsin odds a minute ago.
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movement which way in WI?
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Toward Trump. Bigly.
Chicon
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any idea why Chicon?
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went from 56/46 Harris to 51/50 Harris then five minutes later back up to 53/49. All over the place and look like one or two big buy/sell orders coming in from a whale. Will see if it evens out on one side now.
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Milwaukee is down for quemala.
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Good because Trump is down badly on Predictit for WI
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8076/Which-party-will-win-Wisconsin-in-the-2024-presidential-election
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But Polymarket would have more chance of a “shark” in the know, lot of big bets there.
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Harrisx new poles:
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NC is not a good look.
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Where is PA?
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Alex Castellanos just said on Fox that it appears to be a big night for Trump.
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Maybe it was the Harris poll
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What is wrong with this person?
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Not a huge fan of Alex but I will take it.
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I think the point is why are they releasing poles today?
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Florida GOP lead now approaching 1.2 million?
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Jason, why is NC not a good look?
Chicon
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Trump takes polymarket lead in WI…
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Jason, why is NC not a good look?”
A 0.2 lead?
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lol, “according to reports, President Joe Biden will not attend Vice President Kamala Harris’s election night watch party.”
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https://www.dailywire.com/news/president-biden-wont-attend-kamalas-election-night-watch-party?electionhub=true%22
President Biden Won’t Attend Kamala’s Election Night Watch Party
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“After work surge happening right now in GA, NC and PA.
Wow.
Men are arriving. TURNOUT is SURGING.
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1853908022910685201
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I noticed a Mennonite woman walking past too.
https://x.com/LauraPowellEsq/status/1853849588798722545
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Actually a Mennonite couple.
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First exits incoming. REMEMER, WE DONT POLE OR ANSWER EXIT QUESTIONS
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has to be something more than the HarrisX poll. Trump now up 55/46 in Wisconsin betting.
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Reports of drastically reduced turnout in Milwaukee might have moved the needle.
Chicon
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PA lead has narrowed for Trump at Polymarket but WI now 53-47 Trump.
Both would be nice, but one is enough if Trump flips AZ and GA and holds on to NC.
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https://images2.imgbox.com/32/4d/3c1IukOG_o.jpg
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remember that the weather was nasty today in Milwaukee.
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Exit poles are always revised.
please don’t fall for the psyops
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Where should I watch the returns? Fox? Newsmax? Someplace online?
Chicon
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@Peoples_Pundit
If CNN isn’t having trouble interviewing Trump voters, and pollsters could not get them on the phone, probably gonna be a Hell of a time conducting an exit poll. Glad I didn’t end up doing them this year.
·
31.1K Views
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Drudge headlines
Musk final push includes QAnon hype video made by Nazi sympathizer
MAGA extremists terrorizing workers in CA
“I went to Trump rally, the curtains are closing on his circus”
Harris should pardon The Don “to dampen down violence”
Record number apply for passports
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Where should I watch the returns? Fox? Newsmax? Someplace online?”
Here
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The early exit polls from both CNN and Fox are absolutely devastating for Harris.
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If THIS is true…
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
1m
JUST IN: US electorate is 71% white, 11% black, per first Edison Research exit poll
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I would assume this is not good for the incumbent party !!
BREAKING: CNN EXIT POLL SHOWS ONLY 7% OF VOTERS ARE “ENTHUSIASTIC” ABOUT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE USA!
7% “enthusiastic”.
43% “dissatisfied.”
29% “angry.”
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Democracy is the top issue?
Really?
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Yes good. But let’s wait for some revisions and see.
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ric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
3m
BREAKING: Economy is #1 issue of 40% of voters, up from 30% in 2020 – AP VoteCast
60% say economy “not so good” or “poor”
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
3m
EXIT POLL: 25% of voters want “complete and total upheaval,” over 50% want “substantial change” and only 10% want “small” change – AP VoteCast
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#1 ain’t democracy and abortion.
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Fox exit poll….
Economy 39%
Immigration 20%
Abortion 11%
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Exit poll – Who do you Trust on Immigration
🔴 Trump 53%
🔵 Harris 46%
NBC
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Lol see there already is an under count.
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the GOP lead is actually accelerating now in Florida, as work hours come to a close and people had to the polls after work.
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I think the exit polls are capturing the most partisan voters on both sides. That is why Harris numbers on economy and Trump numbers on abortions look pretty good.
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I don’t understand living in fear like that.
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CNN exit poll….Biden approval at 41%. Absolutely devastating for Harris.
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Rove says Trump could win NH and VA
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Charles Gasparino: BREAKING: Inside the Trump camp there isn’t a quiet confidence. Instead, it’s pretty loud. They really think they will win and its not spin. They maybe wrong but thats the feedback Im getting. Yes people do believe their own BS, though sometimes their own BS is on the money as it was in 2016 when I got the same feedback. Not so in 2020
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Absolutely devastating for Harris.’
Why, because she can’t think of a thing she would do differently
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I sure hope its true about Virginia. Been doing my bit here.
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“First exits incoming. REMEMER, WE DONT POLE OR ANSWER EXIT QUESTIONS”
-We COULD just ignore the Exit Polls………
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Scooter, Trump also has Fabrizio, who unlike Selzer, REALLY IS the best in the business.
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Trump holding at 62-38 at Polymarket but his PA lead dropped to 56-45.
Not sure what drove that drop.
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“Rove says Trump could win NH and VA”
-DW, where was the prediction list again? Sorry if I missed you say earlier.
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Flip around. If Trump wins I want see MSNBC and CNN lose it live.
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phuq Karl robot.
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I think I have Virginia falling three points short.
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Can we have more trump going to McDonald’s as president? This is a clsssic.
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Good luck to all of us, and to the United States of America, that the citizens truly appreciate what we have here, and realize that citizenship is something to be cherished, and not cheaply given away to any and all people who illegally make it across its borders.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
JUST IN: FOX exit poll
🔴 Wrong track: 70%
🔵 Right track: 30%
Top issues:
🔴 Economy: 39%
🔴 Immigration: 20%
🔵 Abortion: 11%
Economy:
🔵 Excellent/good: 37%
🔴 Not so good/poor: 63%
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If Rove said that about NH and VA, that’s a good sign. Rove is not exactly a big fan of Trump.
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Faux 70% – wrong track vs 30
Exit pole. Remember MAGA ain’t answering.
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I thought we had all agreed that nobody except Robbie could publish Exit Polls, and if he did, they would have to be from Lord Arsehat
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“-DW, where was the prediction list again? Sorry if I missed you say earlier.”
-Forget that, DW, I see it.
Thank you!
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You would think the expert on Philadelphia would know that.
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Prelim results of US National Exit Poll, via Reuters:
Voters were…
53% WOMEN (52% in ‘20)
71% WHITE (67% in ’20)
11% BLACK (13% in ’20)
12% HISPANIC (13% in ’20)
(5pm EST, Edison Research)
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
EDISON EXIT POLL: Pennsylvania electorate is now 4 points more white vs black than 2020
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And a lot of Dems are white so……
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ralston: So: Trump winning the rurals by 75,000-80,000 seems right.
That’s the hill the Dems need to climb, and it’s all about the indies, especially if they end up losing Washoe, which would make it very difficult.
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But a large bloc of PA Black voters are in Philly which usually goes 90-10 against GOP. So even if many Whites are Dems a lot more Blacks are Dems
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Dems are cheering the gains in Clark county but still ignoring the bigger picture:
Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
·
2m
NEW: Nevada GOP total lead is now at 50K votes.
Went into the day at a ~40K lead.
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Here comes the CNN exit poll spin….democracy leading at 35% and abortion over immigration
This is the spin of a losing campaign and their media mouthpiece.
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I guess Ralston’s argument will still come down to the claim that a lot of the NV independents are really crypto-Dems so Harris will win. I am not saying it is impossible but it seems like a lot of work to try to “fool” the GOP and everyone else when the easy think to do is to register as a Dem and turn out to vote Dem.
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how could they possibly get that result in the exit polls when it was never the number one issue during the entirety of the campaign. Where did they do the exit polls, San Francisco, Hollywood and the Village?
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VictrC, you got me. But it is pretty obvious of what they (CNN) are doing.
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Over at RRH one of the Dems posted that CNN’s exit poll shows the most important issues are:
Democracy 35%
Economy 31%
Abortion 15%
Immigration 11%
Fox doesn’t have that in the top 4. Highly doubtful Democracy is #1 based on all the prior polling I’ve seen.
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I think Selzer ran the CNN exit poll
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The Democracy category was created and hyped because the Dems suck on everything else, and knew it.
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the exit polls at 5pm are the first wave of voters during the day. ALWAYS favors DEMS because working people vote after 5pm. It has always been such, its how they were predicting Kerry over Bush in 2004, which is the most egregious example in the last 20 years.
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Seeing the Fox News exit polls, everything has become so polarized. Not good for the long term health of the nation.
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Poll close in three minutes in much of KY and IN.
Bitter, I didn’t schedule a 6:00 thread. Might wanna start a new one.
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“I think Selzer ran the CNN exit poll”
🙂
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only far left Dems from the AOC bloc are worried about democracy
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sane, its hard to have unity with people who are literally trying to trick little boys into thinking they can be made into girls so they can be rushed into surgery to have their private parts lopped off.
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A.J. Bayatpour
@AJBayatpour
BREAKING: The city of Milwaukee is going to recount about 30,000 absentee ballots that had already been counted. There was an issue with one tabulator not being sealed. Out of precaution, the city will recount each ballot. A long night just got longer
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bitter. Can you so the post. I’m heading home and might screw it up in my phone
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“Seeing the Fox News exit polls, everything has become so polarized. Not good for the long term health of the nation.”
-We knew that already. An inflection point is upon us, hopefully it was 04/20/2022, when Musk bought TwitterX, and the MSM was denied their monopoly over election news narratives.
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I will start the new thread
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Again, well established that Rs don’t answer exit poles. CNN had a tough time finding Maga voters to even interview. The first exits are the most inaccurate.
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NEW THREAD
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