Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
91 responses to “Waiting for DW’s poll blitz.”
First
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Second
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Turds rule.
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Polymarket
Trump 54-46 National
53-47 PA
41-59 WI
64-37 GA
56-44 NV
63-38 NC
41-60 MI
83-19 IA
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Predictit
Trump 47 (+2)
Kamala 54 (-2)
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The woman who got Peanut the Squirrel killed was outed on the Internet and is being pilloried.
Good.
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NBC doesn’t care..
NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” may have broken federal regulations governing airtime with the appearance of Vice President Kamala Harris this weekend, an FCC official said.
FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr says the appearance may have violated the equal time rule, a requirement that public broadcast organizations offer comparable time and placement to qualifying candidates during a major election.
Carr said Harris’ appearance on SNL may have broken the rule if NBC did not also send an invitation to former President Trump.
“This is a clear and blatant effort to evade the FCC’s Equal Time rule,” Carr wrote of Harris’ appearance. “The purpose of the rule is to avoid exactly this type of biased and partisan conduct – a licensed broadcaster using the public airwaves to exert its influence for one candidate on the eve of an election. Unless the broadcaster offered Equal Time to other qualifying campaigns.”
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I wonder why the Michigan numbers are so bad on the market
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Trump campaign confirms there was no invitation.
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Marist poll.
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And Seltzer
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Jason, I couldn’t find an article about her. Probably Google suppressing the news. Do you have a link?
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Anyone who saw it knows it was a political endorsement, and a political ad…even worse, she directly appealed to the people of PA
I wonder if she thinks she has WI and MI locked up. Not going there today makes it seem as such
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If Trump was really doing badly in IA he is not winning WI or MI is the narrative.
That narrative ignores the Emerson +10 poll because it doesn’t fit.
The MSM is still full of “Harris leads in IA” articles and the “significance” of that.
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Rudolph added at the end of the skit, “I’m going to vote for us.”
Great. Any chance you’re registered in Pennsylvania?” Harris asked.
“Nope, I am not,” Rudolph said.
“Well, it was worth a shot,” Harris said, before the two delivered the show’s signature, “Live from New York, it’s Saturday night!”
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Here is the link on the Peanut killer…
https://twitchy.com/samj/2024/11/03/meet-the-harpy-who-got-peanut-and-fred-murdered-n2403179
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Her name is Monica Keasler… as Elon Musk says, make her famous.
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That skit was copied from a similar one Trump did.
Even that was not original.
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https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/11/03/ignore-polling-democrats-are-in-the-pull-the-goalie-phase/
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it took quemala 3 hours of practice to do low rated snl? And she missed Michigan.
please go to Iowa today (or Doltz)
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Az ballot lead is now almost 188,000*
No update from Maricartel, however.
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Cohns caveat with the ny times poles (they cannot seem to get quemala to 270 btw) are eye catching.
If you know the underreporting was bad, then why release the poles?
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Scary thought
https://x.com/TomBevanRCP/status/1853043322484412713
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The MSM playbook…
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Has he done a180?
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SHe is going to have to ask the fBI for a new identity…
https://x.com/hippojuicefilm/status/1853030249530798271
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Source of mine who heads political affairs at a major Wall Street firm — and can’t stand Trump—says his numbers show Trump winning and GOP getting 53 seats in senate given latest polling momentum”
Translation: he knows a guy….
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That woman in Texas had bad intentions, but really it is the horrible people in NY DEC agency that should be exposed.
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But actually my senate prediction is going to be 53 too and I don’t know any guys.
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It was not “just” that one agency, but a total of 10 state agencies,
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They have a new excuse. The squirrel bit someone at the agency so they had to euthanize it to test for rabies.
BS.
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Expose them all
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I still think Kamala not picking Shapiro will turn out to be the biggest blunder of the election. Unless he turned it down.
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Tina, Charlie Gasparino said as much earlier on Fox this past week. He also mentioned others that had the same information using polls that aren’t the standard fare given to the public. He also stated that the CEO’s of Apple, Google and JP Morgan had called Trump to ‘get on his good side while the going was good.’
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Here is the official EV’s for both Nevada (R’s +43K)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-nevada/
and Arizona (R’s +182K)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-arizona/
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He didn’t turn it down. He interviewed for it and went through the vetting process. He campaigned for it. He was slobbering like Pavlov’s dogs.
AFTER he got shot down he made a show of “well i wasn’t really interested”.
He has always been a phony, this was just confirmation.
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John I thought gasparino was anti trump in 2020.
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What I notice about Clark is that the mail ballot return rate by Rs is a lot lower than the return rate by Dems.
Is that because everyone gets a ballot and more Rs vote on ED?
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Doltz has been a liability. I would not have expected it since he is been in politics for 20 years.
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This woman is a an Internet sensation after she basically gutted Jake Sullivan’s wife on live TV.
She might pull some votes for Trump in NH.
https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2024/11/03/nh-in-the-house-gop-lily-tang-williams-epic-takedown-of-maggie-goodlander-has-put-this-race-on-the-map-n2181444
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I would not have expected it since he is been in politics for 20 years.”
We are not in Kan.. huh I mean Nebraska anymore.
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She gutted Jake Sullivans wife. She basically called Sullivan a disaster.
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Tina, Mr. Gasparino might have been, but he and others in the finance field probably see the ‘writing on the wall’. He keeps saying things that these people ‘have access to polling data that the average citizen does not’.
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‘have access to polling data that the average citizen does not’.”
Skeptical of that.
But I hope it is true.
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So the GOP leads by 43K+ votes in NV…but in Clark County, the Dems lead by 60K+…so outside of Clark County the R’s lead by over 100K votes. Let that sink in.
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But remember Clark is 75% of the population.
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538 projection back to where it was before the psyops
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
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yet nv party is is now equal and ds are down in Clark.
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Jack Poso
@JackPosobiec
BREAKING: Lots of regret in the Kamala campaign over not choosing Josh Shapiro, per WH official. Obamas were pushing Walz, Biden recommended Shapiro. Now she’s spending entire last campaign day in PA
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125.1K Views
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Selzer poll on the four Congressional districts; yeah, she got a bad sample, pure and simple. I do t think that’s a knock against her, even the best will fail 5% of the time (1 in 20 average outlier rate).
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/?taid=67275b3d7904180001a8d8af&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
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Selzer knew what she was doing. She had to rig the congressional races as well or otherwise it would have been exposed upon her releasing all the polls rather than just the presidential one.
Any qualified professional would double check their results if what they are seeing in their data sample is so diametrically opposed to past data and, frankly, what good sense would indicate. She is in on the attempted fix.
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I don’t trust pollsters who a) herd, and b) don’t publish their outliers. That’s across the board. I’m not into conspiracy theories, so I’ll pass.
I think Trump wins comfortably on Tuesday, FWIW.
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Good. But in any case, I don’t really believe Shapiro would have “delivered” PA to Kamala. He might helped on the margins in PA, would have screwed her on the margins in MI.
I don’t see Shapiro pulling that many votes from Indies in PA like I would see, for example, Youngkin pulling in Indies in VA. One reason is that Youngkin’s approval rate with Indies is 66% in VA, much higher than Shapiro’s.
Don’t get me wrong, he is a better candidate than Walz.
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Dem firewall in PA is still only 400k votes.
Even with Rs cannibalizing their votes, I don’t see how they don’t prevail by over 400k on ED.
The caveat is how the Indies vote, IF they are more pro-Kamala then the firewall is larger than 400k.
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Yahoo/you gov national pole tied @48%
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(last pole was Quemala plus 2j.
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https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/03/grocery-prices-surge-philadelphia-00186460
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RCP doesn’t use YouGov in their average but if you look at the graph you can see the trend is definitely towards Trump.
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LOL
“Explanation” by a liberal on why the Dem firewall in PA is more like a firefence.
“Maybe, just maybe, they’re deciding to vote in person because they don’t Trust Republicans not to try to get their mail-in-ballots thrown out just like Republicans have already tried to do THIS election.
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If Ds vote for Ds and Rs for Rs, then the Indy vote have to make up almost 200k votes in a universe of 600k votes. In other words, win them by like 400k to 200k.
That won’t happen.
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Patriot Polling
Swing States Poll:
ARIZONA
Trump 51% (+3)
Harris 48%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 51% (+2)
Harris 49%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 50% (+1)
Harris 49%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 50% (+1)
Harris 49%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump 49%
Harris 49%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 49%
Harris 49%
.
NEVADA
Trump 49%
Harris 49%
RV, 11/1-3
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Rv poles this late?
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National @PatriotPolling:
Harris 49% (+1)
Trump 48%
1,115 RV, 11/1-3
patriotpolling.com/our-p
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Ain’t no way is Iowa close.
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1853134627189428312?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Plus the farm economy is in a severe recession.
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Trump has a lot more TV ads than Kamala in this area, FWIW.
So does McCormick vs. Casey.
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What about in Bl world, is it still abortion 24/7.
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Looks like no significant. Day over day change in Nv.
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Maybe it is the right strategy. We will see.
The Dems are definitely targeting ads to different groups. Kamala and Casey not running any abortion ads here, although a few Pacs are.
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”Plus the farm economy is in a severe recession.”
Last time that happened (in 1989), IA punished the in-party and went heavily for Dukakis (second best performance after RI, I believe, and better than MA!).
This also happened in 1948; farm states were having a rough go of it and, despite voting for Dewey against FDR in 1944, flipped to Truman.
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Peoples_Pundit
Why aren’t they answering polls? Good question. We don’t know.
@Mark_R_Mitchell
and I were hypothesizing that it’s possible due to an unusual number of Republicans voting early, they checked out.
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20.4K Views
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I have no feel for how Indies vote in NV.
Ralston says they trend D, evidently they did by 6% previously.
But winning by 6% won’t erase 45k votes at most it gets them 20k votes.
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Dictionary
Definition from Funk and Wagnalls
Outlier/Out*li*er
noun
outright lying
out and lying
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With respect to nevada, what has come up often in the news from voters is inflation/poor economy. This includes some Ds (a Hispanic business owner who owns a restaurant.
Nevada also has the highest state unemployment rate.
so it may be the economy stupid.
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I think many Rs don’t answer polls because they think it might be a scam to dox them. And they have reason to believe that, people with Trump signs are getting threatening letters.
I was reluctant when I was polled, but I researched the company, seemed legit, so I answered the second time they called. The number they called me from panned out too, I checked.
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While it was d +6 in 2020, one has to look at the different counties. Washoe is r plus 9. This includes reno and sparks. The indies woukd be more inclined to break towards trump vs the ones in Clark county.
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Was the Seltzer poll the last “surprise’?
I mean we had the bimbo at Trump tower (btw, THAT had a short shelf life) ” PR garbage”, the Cheney firing squad, etc., Trump loses IA, etc.
They have to come up with something tomorrow.
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So, in addition to Nv having the highest state unemployment rate, we need to also look at the counties.
Clark county has an unemployment rate of 5.9%. This is the highest and may be a reason why Quemala is not doing as well as demented (or Harry Reid in that county).
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Has Ralston said anything yet?
If he had good news for Kamala, he would have said it already.
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It also appears that the culinary workers (not the union) are standing down or voting for Trump. It was explained by one blue collar worker that he had one good job under trump, but he now works 3 part time jobs just to make ends meet.
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You guys still here?
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This is from Michael Moore’s blog last night…he is asking all non-voters to vote for Kamala Harris as ‘a favor to him’.
Two observations…
Moore, after saying that Trump is toast, sounds pathetically insecure.
Moore, saying to the non-voters to do him ‘a favor’ appears to be an obnoxious, pompous and overbearing baffoon.
https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/a-letter-from-michael-moore-to-the
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I’m here, but nothing new except for the usual suspects saying that Trump wants his supporters to kill the media.
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here, trying to get some work done before the little ones birthday party at iFly…13 kids doing indoor skydiving
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Terrible NV mail numbers for the Dems based on the 11/3 am SOS report. This is the net compared to the 11/2 am report
Total mail votes 20,258
Net margin D+1,853
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so basically, it looks like its coming down to this. Will Republicans still win election day voting in percentages that they normally get, or will the early voting cannibalize their election day vote, and Dems secure wins across the board. Is this 2022 or is this 2016.
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Ralston bows out, will not make a prediction
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In the Philadelphia ad market it is 95% abortion by Dems at local, state and Federal level.
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DW, where did you see that that’s official? It’s not on ralston’s X thread.
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