According to Chism Strategies (D) Taken 10/28-10/30 against 520 likely voters:
 | VIRGINIA |
| Trump | 45 |
| Harris | 45 |
| U.S. Senate: | |
| Cao | 45 |
| Kaine | 46 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Why not. TIE in Virginia
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
174 responses to “Why not. TIE in Virginia”
Primero, Amigos
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nice to have a fun thread in case later today I have to create one with bad news for the home team.
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not sure how they could get 10% other/undecided though.
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Chism also polled Minnesota
🟦Harris: 48% (+5)
🟥Trump: 43%
10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 534 LV
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MARYLAND
🟦Harris: 56% (+23)
🟥Trump: 33%
10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 510 LV
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Hmm, a Dem polling firm showing a dead heat in VA. I think they must feel it is close and want to drive Dem voters to the polls who might think VA is blue regardless as it is not a swing state. However, it probably will drive some R voters to the polls as well as they see that there is a chance to win the state. But since R voters are already more engaged, that is a lesser concern.
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so Chism’s Maryland numbers are 10 points better for Trump than 2020 against Biden, and the MN numbers 2 points to the better for Trump compared to 2020.
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Emerson pole Iowa. Trump plus 10.5
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oh wow, that’s good….get a good IOWA poll to keep Selzer honest
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FINAL IOWA poll
🔴 Trump: 53.2% (+10.5)
🔵 Harris: 42.7%
Emerson | 11/1-2 | N=800LV
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Polling has looked awful for quemala today.
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Trump up 10.5 in IA per Emerson;
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852815490848104488
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in 2020, Emerson’s final IA poll was Trump +1
Let. That. Sink. In.
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Next door to Iowa:
FINAL MISSOURI poll
🔴 Trump: 54% (+14)
🔵 Harris: 40%
Remington | 10/28-10/29 | N=721LV
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In 2020
MO Trump +15.4
IA Trump +8.2
MN Biden +7.2
MD Biden +33.2
VA Biden +10.1
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that seltzer poll is really good news. I definitely had a couple pucker moments when I saw Harris +1 earlier
if Ann has him at 10.5 chances are it’s about 12, which means Wisconsin is definitely in play and I think MI is as well
get ready for a barrage of rescue polls for the komrade
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oh wait. I thought that was the Sektzer poll. My mistake
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No worries Vic, its great news, as Emerson neuters any Selzer poll that’s bad for Trump.
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Wait, is it even possible for Ann Selzer to be neutered? YES! in the world Democrats want to create!
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wow, Polling war drama here on the Saturday before the election.
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Hey, but Trump saying how would Liz Cheney armed with a rifle feel with people aiming at her was “dark and violent rhetoric”, even “investigated by the AZ AG”
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from Emerson IA poll:
“Trump also leads among independents, 53% to 36%.”
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Joe’s one of those guys who will be picking fights in the dining room of the assisted living center.
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ok, demented really hates Quemala. This is,another dumb move by him (violence), when he just had the “garbage” comment days ago.
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So lets see if CNN runs with:
“Dark side of Biden exposed: dreams about committing violence against Americans!”
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The surrogates are not helping.
Bj said to vote for Harris, even though the trump economy was better. He also said the poor girl would still be alive (victim of illegal immigrant).
demented with the garbage comment and now advocating violence. By chance, did he include male and women supporters?
obumbler yeah trump economy was better because I gave it to him.
Doltz- “Elon musk is gay.”
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“Joe’s one of those guys who will be picking fights in the dining room of the assisted living center.”
Sounds like he would fit right in at HHR.
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I did not touch mark Cubans comments about women.
each comment was made within the last week or so.
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I saw that Nate Silver wrote an article yesterday stating that the swing state polls appear to be manipulated to be close to every one else. It is really good.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state
Wisconsin was by far the most affected, with a probability of 1 in 2.8 million that so many polls would be so close together. Redfield and Wilton was by far the worst pollster with a probability of 1 in 175 million. The pollsters listed in the article with respect to herding by probability, from best to worst
You Gov: 9 in10 probability that the polling margins are by chance
Atlas Intel: 1 in 2
WaPo: 1 in 2
Rassmusen: 1 in 2
Quinnipiac: 1 in 3
Trafalgar: 1 in 8
OnMessage: 1 in 12
Morn Consult: 1 in 105
InsiderAdvantage: 1 in 576
Emerson: 1 in 1148
Redfield&Wilton: 1 in 175 million
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Yeah, that’s a nice Iowa poll. Makes me think those rumors were wrong about the Selzer poll. She might not have Trump up 10 like Emerson, but there’s no way Harris can be +1. Still thinking she comes in at Trump +5. I hope I’m wrong and it’s more than that.
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I haven’t found one commentary on the Minnesota Somali endorsement of Trump. Was expecting the guys at Powerline to jump on a big story in their own backyard. Crickets……….
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How many Somalis live in MN, and how many actually vote? Do they vote as a bloc?
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
Ralston is now leaning in on the “cannibalization” argument.
The funny part about this argument is it is like saying “the other guys are so enthusiastic that the voters who waited until the last minute to vote have now voted as early as they could.”
Anyway – it’s no secret Republicans would need a good election day showing no matter what.
But the more REPs who vote early… “cannibalized” voters or not… actually means the pressure is more-so on the Democrats on election day. I’ll leave Mr. Ralston to decide how red election day will be…
———-
But here’s the Dem’s problem. The party ID split statewide is now only D+9000. Even if Every DEM voted and every Republican, Trump could still win if the Indies went to him by a modest percentage.
Ralstonhack is still talking like the Dems have a huge party id advantage.
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Tina, did you also catch BJ saying the Arafat and Hamas lied to him, that when Ehud Barak offered 96% of the West Bank, an East Jerusalem capital, and another 4% of sovereign Israeli territory, they turned it down just so they could kill more Jews? That was satisfying to hear a Dem finally admit that.
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Missed it, gf. Thanks.
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Somewhere between 80-90,000 Somali-speaking people in Minnesota. You could be looking at a bloc of 20,000 voters or more. (Guessing) I see them as a cohesive bloc as they tend to congregate in their own communities. Not big on assimilation.
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So, a net 40k swing assuming they listen to their community leaders and vote for Trump (also assuming that most haven’t yet voted). Say 30k to be conservative.
Trump lost MN by 44,600 votes in 2016.
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30,000 combined with that +10.5 in Iowa just might be enough this time around.
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As a 20+ years member, I don’t recall the peaceful HHR days OA speaks about.
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I have never spoken of a peaceful HHR. Not sure such a place ever existed.
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Baris: Final @atlas_intel National Poll: Trump +1.4%
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Supposedly the Selzer poll drops at 7p ET
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JUST IN: Atlas Intel, the most accurate pollster of 2020, will be releasing polls from other states including Virginia, Ohio, Texas
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Hugh Hewitt, who jumped ship a few days back at the WaPo, was very upbeat about a decisive Trump win on Tuesday. He is no Trump fan, but more of an establishment conservative type. However, he sees people still apprehensive about revealing their vote to polls, in light of the continuing harassment and lawfare tactics shown by Dems towards Trump supporters. Consequently, he believes the shy voter syndrome will be in play Tuesday, making current polling appear foolish. His prediction is the GOP will win NV, AZ, GA, NC and the 3 big rust belt states of WI, MI, and PA. Those rust belt states also seem favored to win because of their smart choice of Senate GOP candidates, running in this election along with the presidential nominee.
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Sounds like he would fit right in at HHR.”
Zzzzz….
Says the stupid moronic turd who said this:
“But stop taking the moral high ground about ANYTHING if you cannot behave with common human decency.”
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I don’t recall the peaceful HHR days OA speaks about.”
Poor bastard is still angry the life boat survived after he assured us with 100 posts of vitriol about how it could never happen.
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Good Grief !!!!
FINAL IOWA poll
🔵 Harris: 47% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 44
Last poll: Trump+4
Selzer & Co. | 10/28-31 | N
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I don’t even know what to say about that.
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Lol lollol
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She got a bad pole over Halloween. Garbage in and out.
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If it happens she will be a legend.
If it doesn’t she will lose her aura.
Plus, have a poll without 10% of the electorate three days before the election is stupid.
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she buried one pole (per Baris); came out with a t plus 4; and then this bs.
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More psyops.
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Has either campaign even held a Rally in Iowa? I mean, this doesn’t make any sense at all. Emerson finds Trump +10 and Selzer Harris +3 ???? I mean C’mon.
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Seth Keshel: “This is actually the best thing that could have happened.
It’s so clearly bought off and paid for just to throw off the Midwest that @jaselzer threw away her career.
Yes, Ms Selzer, Iowa went from R+1 to R+10 just so it could swing 11 points to the left with Trump leading the national popular vote.
You sellout regime supporting sycophant.”
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It’s all Rs voting for Quemala.
-free passer
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(Had to get one free pass one in there).
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This poll will probably collapse the betting markets. Trump already looks like crashing at Polymarket
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That poll killed Trump at Polymarket. PA went from Trump plus 10 to Kamala +5. IA went from 95 to 6 to 80 to 20. WI 52-48 Kamala to 60-40.
Crazy.
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PreditIT now Harris 56, Trump 52. Insane. Will be looking forward to giving Selzer an F grade next week.
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Now 57/51 at PredictIT
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Now 57 to 50
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Well, one thing is for sure. If the Selzer poll is anywhere close to correct, Trump is finished. If the Selzer poll isn’t close to correct, she’s finished.
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@Peoples_Pundit
There are two very glaring nuggets suggesting it’s an outlier, save for the fact the president has won Iowa easily in the past two election. 1. Most important issues looks like she interviewed people in a Starbucks line in Manhattan. 2. The recalled vote doesn’t add up.
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Stunned. She is definitely not herding.
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So look at the states all around Iowa. Trump is narrowly ahead in Wisconsin. Down only about 5 in Minnesota. Up by 27 in South Dakata, a point better than 2020. Nebraska ahead 17, Missouri ahead 15. All numbers consistent with doing better than in 2020…all except the state they surround Iowa, where suddenly Trump is down three when he won by 8 in 2020. What a way for Selzer to end her career.
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Maybe she has terminal TDS
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https://x.com/RealSKeshel/status/1852852379487744131?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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And remember both campaign have internal polling of Iowa. Their behavior says Emerson is right.
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Maybe Selzer polled MN by mistake
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Trump could risk releasing his own internal poll of Iowa and dare Harris to do the same, but Harris would lie and say it looks just like Selzer.
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She would be in Iowa, if Alka seltzer was close to being right.
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I am glad they went Harris +3 rather than Trump +2. That would have been just barely believable enough to suggest Trump was in trouble.
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It doesnt seem possible that this could even be an outlier poll. It seems like a deliberate attempt to manipulate the chattering classes in an attempt to sway the election.
It takes a mighty evil woman to through away her integrity and stellar reputation to try to do this. Will accomplish nothing but damage her own reputation.
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So we have a tied poll in VA and Trump down 3 in IA.
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C’mon bedwetters….this poll might an outlier or more specifically something else. An earlier poll had Trump +10.
If the Trump campaign truly believed that he was going to lose Iowa – wouldn’t the campaign have scheduled a rally or two there.
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Nobody is bedwetting, you are enamored with that stupid meme.
Nobody here thinks this poll is significant for Trump winning or losing.
We are just commenting on the narrative it has created and the impact on the betting markets.
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Psyops.
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The problem is psyops work.
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Some idiots bought IA for Kamala based on this poll.
At least we can be comforted that they will lose their asses.
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They work for idiots.
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It was obvious Selzer was bought out months ago when she had that great poll for Trump and spiked it. Huge miss here on the part of Trump’s team, and the good group of pollsters. They, like Emerson, should have anticipated that Selzer would do this, and have three or four solid, large sample IA polls ready to release if needed.
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Atlas Intel:
WI: Harris 49, Trump 50
MI: Harris 48, Trump 50
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The whole spiking of a pole by her raised a lot of questions in my mind, She got a bad pole. Toss.
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Great
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NC: Trump 51, Harris 47
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Trump +2 in Iowa is a bad poll. Selzer saying Harris +3 smacks of intent to deceive by cooking the poll to what was desired.
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no movement in Atlas Intel, so its Selzer against the world.
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These polls close to the election day have credibility not only from the standpoint that they reflect the current situation but also they affect the reputation of the pollsters.
It one think like AltlasIntel to show Trump ahead 2 in early October, they can always say things changed.
But they are willing to show Trump ahead in both MI and WI 3 days before the election, basically stating this is what we think is going to happen.
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I will say it again, Trump’s team should have been on to this, and there should have been three or four more Iowa polls released this morning like Emerson did. Thank God for Emerson.
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So, predictably, this is the reaction on X and in the media. BTW, this is verbatim:
“don’t you get it? She is trying to stop literally Hitler.” That’s why Iowa is going Harris.
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More Atlas Intel:
GA: Trump 50, Harris 48
PA: Trump 50, Harris 48
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“That’s why Iowa is going Harris.” Then why is literally every state AROUND Iowa the same for Trump as 2020, or better for Trump?
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So this is the lastest prediction…based on Selser
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so Trump gained in PA AtlasIntel poll compared to their prior
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lol Vic, I laughed so hard, I almost choked on a Reese’s pieces
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BOOM!
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 52, Harris 46
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She spiked a pole. Case closed for her.
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The Az pole appears credible based on the 182000 r ballot lead
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I guess Harris is the second coming of FDR. She’s going to save us. Hallelujah, oh wait…wrong rally.
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BOOM!
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
Atlas Intel
Trump 51.4, Harris 45.6
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Atlas has nevada plus 5.5 for trump.
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I am willing to bet money on Iowa not going to Harris. I mean, if that happened, it would mean VA is up 15%, Texas she’s up 5%…etc etc etc
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Tell you what, lets take Harris to an Iowa or Iowa State game and see what kind of reception she gets…then take Trump.
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If she were ahead in Iowa, wouldn’t the map reflect more of a 2008 look?
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Trump actually has improved his battleground state average.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states
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I guess the left must think they now have the election in the bag based on Selzer, that means they can all vote their hearts and put in Stein or West, because Harris will have plenty of votes.
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Atlas Intel can poll fast, you watch, they will drop one on Monday evening for Iowa.
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Has silverfish opined on the Alka seltzer pole?
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The Wisconsin atlasintel jumped from a Trump lead of 0.3 to 1.3.
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Yeah, rcp battlegrounds is now 1.2. I saw it dip to 0.9 yesterday at some point.
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Maybe, they will send Doltz to iowa, or the obumbler? I hi k the obumbler is needed in Milwaukee, however.
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So the Harris campaign with unlimited funds, spends next to nothing in Iowa? Their internal polling would have to show it close , if the Selzer poll is to be believed.
I’m not sure that either campaign even did one Rally in Iowa. Both campaigns internals would have showed a close race in Iowa, and yet both campaigns ignored it???? I’m not buying it.
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And R party Id went deo. +1 (2020) to +10 (2024)
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I don’t buy it either Scooter. Selzer’s TDS caused her to end her career today. She spiked the accurate poll, and put this out, giving up her reputation, in a futile attempt to stop Trump.
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The Sunday morning shows are going to be brutal for Trump tomorrow, the MSM is going to go all in for Kamala.
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Lol, what’s new?
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At PredictIT, seems the AtlasIntel polls might have stopped the bleeding. Harris 56, Trump 50.
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from r plus 1 to r plus 10.
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I guess if nothing else, it shows that people who gamble at PredictIT really aren’t that smart after all.
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Emerson’s 2020 poll of Iowa was Trump 49, Biden 47
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What is happening in Georgia. Has hee haw done anything to stop the Fulton criminals?
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DW-you just nailed it. “I don’t buy it either”
Like I earlier mentioned….”like something else”
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Trump down 10 at Predictit but regained PA lead at Polymarket.
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Evidently Kamala is going to be on Saturday Night Live.
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No one watches it but the MSM will play it incessantly.
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wow, PredictIT all over the place, Trump had regained down only 5 just 20 minutes or so ago.
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WI now Kamala 66-40 at Preidictit, you know that is the IA poll effect.
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Jack Poso
@JackPosobiec
Kamala up in Iowa what’s next, Jeb Bush winning Pennsylvania? Cut me a break
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This is what others have said. a full on MSM blitz for Kamala to give the impression shes winnign in a landslide. Also get ready for the (pardon the irony) of the left calling mass voter fraud if Trump wins, and potentially doing what Raskin said…not seating him.
It almost makes one wonder if that’s why he said it, knowing that they were going to release things like this to give false hope. Sounds like a conspiracy, ill leave this to gateway 😉
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Trump campaign response to the bogus Alka seltzer pole
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1852882487543726434?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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It appears that she won’t release the cross tabs.
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Enlightening memo from the Trump team in that tweet that points to the absurdity of the Selzer poll result. However, what are the odds Harris makes a quick stop in Iowa to try and sell it?
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The only thing is that Selzer has been very good over the years. But it’s very likely her run is over.
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The left is using this and saying its the election of the woman. That they are rebuking Trump because he’s mean…
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The above video is Rogan getting Fetterman to admit that the rejected Senate immigration bill was meant to get more illegals in, become citizens, and place them in red swing states.
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It might have already been mentioned here, but I didn’t realize Vance is going to New Hampshire.
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CNN headline”
DEAD HEAT IN IA
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Crazy.
The betline at Polymarket went from 95-6 for Trump to 82-19 based on that one poll.
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Why won’t she release the crosstabs!
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and Nate Silver chimes in with suspicion on the Iowa Poll.
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A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrongEither Ann Selzer and the New York Times, or the rest of the polling industry.
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What did silverfish say? If she won’t release the cross tabs, it should be tossed. Thi
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I just watched Mark Mitchell’s Final update on YouTube, and he actually thinks his Trump +3 National number is still too far Left. He said he could easily envision a Trump +4 or +5 Nationally when all is said and done.
For what it’s worth.
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Yesterday, I complained about how so many pollsters are “herding” by publishing results that are almost an exact tie in a way that is incredibly statistically improbable given the unavoidable sampling error from surveying a small number of voters. I also noted a handful of prominent exceptions — rouge pollsters like the New York Times/Siena College that practically exist in an entirely different universe and imply a much bigger political realignment.
Another such maverick is Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co. (Selzer and NYT/Siena are our two highest-rated pollsters.) As my former colleague Clare Malone wrote in 2016, Selzer — like NYT/Siena — has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right. In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status.
So Selzer’s new poll of Iowa tonight was highly anticipated by polling junkies, despite Iowa being unlikely to be a decisive state. In June, Selzer’s poll for the Des Moines Register showed Donald Trump with an 18-point lead over Joe Biden in Iowa — surprisingly big, even considering how much Iowa has trended red over the years. (It voted for Trump by 8 points in 2020.)
In September, her survey had Kamala Harris just 4 points behind Trump— considered an outlier at the time.
Her new poll? It shows the state trending even bluer, with Harris leading in Iowa 47-44. 🤯
Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong. Harris’s chances of winning Iowa nearly doubled in our model from 9 percent to 17 percent tonight, which isn’t nothing. Polymarket shows a similar trend, moving from 6 percent to 18 percent after the survey. But that still places Harris’s odds at around 5:1 against.
The poll has a reasonable sample size: 808 likely voters. Still, the margin of error for the difference separating the candidates in a poll of that size is ±6.6 points. That means in theory, in 95 out of 100 cases, the “real” number should be somewhere between Trump +3.4 and Harris +9.6 if Selzer had surveyed every single Iowa voter instead of just an 808-person sample.
The theory, however, doesn’t capture all possible sources of polling error — especially the fact that the overwhelming majority of people who pollsters attempt to contact never complete the survey. And we ought to be good Bayesians here: even if Harris has a very good night on Tuesday, winning a state you lost last time by 9 points is a big ask.
To give us a little more perspective, there was also a second Iowa poll out tonight from Emerson College that showed Trump leading by exactly that 9-point margin from 2020. Emerson is a firm that does a lot of herding, so you ought to account for that — they virtually never publish a survey that defies the conventional wisdom.¹ However, for what it’s worth, their margin of error runs from Trump +15.7 to Trump +2.5.
There is just a little bit of overlap with Selzer, then, believe it or not, given how much the toplines differ. And not entirely coincidentally, our current polling average in Iowa falls just within that range of overlap: Trump +3.4 points. (Careful: the “average” is based on only 4 polls of Iowa all cycle long.)
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LMAO – they are really pulling out all the stops. Now a Miami U poll comes out, showing a margin of error race in Ohio. You don’t think they are putting their fingers on the scale for Harris…and now she’s rerouting to SNL to make her seem like the people’s choice. WOW
” Miami University students fielded a survey of Ohio voters from Oct. 28-30. The results show tight races. Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 49% to 46% among registered voters in the presidential race, while Sherrod Brown leads Bernie Moreno 48% to 46% in the senate race.”
BTW side note – the Libertarian may cost Morena the election
Senate Reg Voters Screened: Will Vote
Brown (Dem) 48% 48%
Moreno (Reb) 46% 47%
Kissick (Lib) 3% 3%
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As of Nov 1, Iowa’s voter registration is R+10.3
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Fallout between scumbags?
Chris Christie slams “Shark Tank”’s Mark Cuban on “The View ”for ‘really stupid’ comments: ‘Doesn’t think before he talks’
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A reg pole. Garbage in and out.
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Bitter will watch SNL and give us a report.
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DKO, Selzer had a poll weeks ago showing Trump up 15 or something like that, but she spiked it under pressure. She is a fraud
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Smackdown in NH. Someone get the license plate of that truck!!
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Jason, you won’t have to worry about a Bitter report on it. It will be plastered all over the news for the next 48 hours
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Good lander is married to that idiot.
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Tina, DKO – don’t get duped, they are trying to get you distracted. Just ignore the noise outside and be prepared with the onslaught of negative polls, negative press etc.
Cross tabs with anything at this moment
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That @KamalaHarris decided to do a scripted Saturday Night Live sketch instead of sitting down for a substantive conversation with Joe Rogan perfectly captures the vapid, insular, and condescending way she has run her entire campaign.
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Iowa registered Voters by Party
Dem 29.5%
Rep 39.8%
NPA 29.9%
Libertarian 0.7%
other 0.1%
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I have tossed that pole, John. It is junk and psyops.
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Didn’t quemalas 2019 campaign end before the Iowa caucuses?
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Again, EVERY state surrounding Iowa is polling the same or Better for Trump compared to 2020. The difference between Iowa and those surrounding states is Iowa moved stronger GOP registrations compared to the other states
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She looks happy. /s
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That dumb OH poll flipped the senate race at Predictit.
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That poll actually has Moreno running only 1% down with Likely voters…so don’t know how it could have moved it.
Anyone here want to bet Trump is winning ohio by more than 3%? If he’s winning Ohio by 3% and losing Iowa by 4%, then the national numbers would be Komrade Kamala by 8-10% easily.
Nowhere do we see that.
They are counting on single, young women who love abortion to save Harris in every state. Believing they will flood the ballot box.
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Iowa active + inactive voters as of 11/1. Previous data was active voters (voted in previous election)
Inactives can vote, but if they don’t they will be removed from the roll in a couple of years unless they vote in the interim or send back a card mailed to their address.
Dem 29.0%
Rep 35.4%
NPA 34.6%
Libertarian 0.8%
other 0.2%
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Move this party to the NT
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