Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
13 responses to “Fresh slate.”
first
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Former Clinton advisor Doug Schoen mentioned on Fox about an hour ago that he has been told from pollsters that they do not what to do with the shy Trump voter this time. He said it won’t be a big as 2016 or 2020 but he’s been told that it might be in the 1 point to 1.5 point range for Trump.
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John, I have given a lot of thought to the shy Trump idea. I admit its attractive, but just not sure how big or significant it is.
And unlike 2016 and 2020, we now are a banana republic, full of lawfare and imprisonment of political enemies. That probably scares people. I know of people who are straight, white, conservative, voting for Trump, but are too scared to attend a rally or even put a sign in the yard. I was told by one of them, if Kamala wins, they will know who had signs up, who attended rallies, and therefore who will end up in jail.
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oh and by the way, someone here posted a comment about watching out for polling done during trick-or-treating. I was literally going out the door to setup for it, and kids were in costume headed our way, when the phone rang and it was someone polling for Virginia. I said I can’t and hung up.
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FINAL NATIONAL poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%
Kaplan Strategies | 10/31 | N=671RV
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wait, a REGISTERED voter poll three days before the election?
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Don’t know this pollster.
VIRGINIA SENATE
🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%
10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV
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Kaplan’s prior poll was Trump 45, Harris 52, for what its worth.
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Chism strategies. Va is tied at 45 percent
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From @nytimes “If there’s any poll question that captures the swing toward a more conservative environment, it’s the question of which party (or candidate) would do the best on the issue that’s most important to your vote. All cycle, polls have shown Republicans and Mr. Trump with an advantage on this measure. Indeed, the polls show Mr. Trump and Republicans with an advantage on most issues.”
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hmm…not much on Chism Strategies. They polled Mississippi in 2020 and had Trump 50, Biden 41, a miss of 7.5 toward Biden.
They had no polling in 2022 that I could find. I have a note here that they are a DEM polling firm, but I cannot confirm that.
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the best polling question to expose the shy-Trump vote is the how are your neighbors voting, and that has consistently been a boost to Trump by four or five points
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New Thread
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