Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
53 responses to “Headed to November…”
one
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frist
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dang my first got hung up!!! That’s what I get for taking the kids trick or treating
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dang my first got hung up!!”
Will take all my translation skills…
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I am sure he will feel right at home…
Jon Ralston
I’ll be on MSNBC at 6 PM or so on the best coast to explain the Trump weave and how brilliant it is to be able to talk about windows and cows in a presidential stump speech. (I miss the sharks.) Turn on your televisions or streaming devices.”
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“To distill: The GOP has built a large ballot lead, but the Dems are showing signs of life with six days of voting left and the day after Election Day usually providing a significant number of mail ballots.”
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“the day after Election Day usually providing a significant number of mail ballots”
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When birds go out on Halloween night they say Trick or Tweet!”
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Pollster Robert Cahaly says ‘submerged voters’ aren’t showing up in the polls.
According to Cahaly these are people who don’t trust pollsters, or the possibility of having their Trump preference lead to some kind of criminality repercussions from the Biden administration. Consequently these people are unable to be polled, a number that could result in anything from a half point to 5 points of underreporting the results.
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where did every ghoul go?
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Would you like to hear a joke?
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mais oui
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Me too !!!
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bwahahahah
Lord, is that what we have devolved to become
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What about the possibility of Trump winning the presidency, Rs gaining control of the Senate and the Ds REGAIN control of the House? (which I personally think would be tragic)
************************
Why is this plausible?
Many American voters do not like Trump as a person nor trust him. If the Rs gain the Senate (very likely this cycle), then the only place where the Ds and reluctant Trump voters can check Trump would be the House. For whatever reasons, the voters tend to like divided government between the 2 parties. And the House is the only place where reluctant Trump voters see could be a stop and a brake for any goofiness Trump might chase after and any goofiness could be thwarted in the House. Maybe these vote Trump but vote D for House do so to try and force compromise so extreme policies do not run roughshod.
I think Trump will win. And I think the Rs will (than God) retake the Senate.
Not so sure the Rs will retain control in the House this time around.
Discuss.
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Al ap – stenography workers cry foul over the White House editing dementeds garbage remarks.
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I think Walt’s theory about the House could happen in some areas. But it all hinges on CA and NY where most of the competitive races are. These states are blue states so maybe the local issues and candidates will have more importance than the strategic idea Walt is suggesting, I will support Trump but put a check on him.
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PRESIDENT TRUMP: “The reason Kamala’s campaign has been reduced to this desperate, pathetic stream of hoaxes and lies is simple: The entire world can see she is a train wreck who is totally unqualified to be president of the United States.”
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In the end, this is an ideological election.
It is right vs. left even if Trump is not a good representative for the right.
If Kamala wins, Americans have basically decided that want a nanny state.
Biden could muddle waters with the “Scranton Joe” BS. Obama did the same with his “port-partisan” BS.
But Kamala is the real deal. She is on record as supporting radical climate change policies like banning fracking and gasoline cars and reducing meat consumption and radical economic policies of wealth transfers in addition to radical social policies like men in women’s sport, unrestricted abortion of viable fetuses, transgender surgeries for criminals and illegals, open borders, citizenship for 20 million illegals, etc.
It’s not hidden. If she wins, a majority of Americans are ok with that agenda.
It will be a different country but it is where we are.
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I do not think Trump should use the words “train wreck.” Such a violent vision it brings.
It may trigger and offend people who had loved ones who were hurt or worse in train wrecks.
Maybe instead say Kamala and her policies are a cess pool, or an unfortunate and preventable debacle.
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I think Walt is posting over at Redstate
moflickyan
I haven’t missed a presidential election since Ford in 76. my candidate won 5 times, lost 7. the only time I didn’t vote for the republican was 1206. I voted a week ago monday”
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It may trigger and offend people who had loved ones who were hurt or worse in train wrecks”
I will take a risk with that 0.00001% of the population.
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Trumps third event Phoenix Az. Look a the crowd
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I went to Real Clear Polling and compared the polls posted for GCB to Trump vs Harris when both were polled. The polls go back to mid October. The data below shows how much the GCB differed from the Presidential Head to head. Generally the R-D gap is larger than the Trump-Harris Gap.
Forbes/HarrisX R+3
Emerson same
NY Times/Siena same
CNN R+3
WSJ R+1
CNBC R+2
USA Today/Suffolk D+1
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Nv update
r -47,295 raw vote lead
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Now here comes the Marist polls to the Harris rescue….
Harris +3 Michigan
+2 Pa
+2 Wi
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/latest-polls/
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they are trying to get RCP average to show a komrade kamala lead before elections. Day
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TIPP Trump 49-48
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FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (=)
🔵 Harris: 49%
Last poll: Harris+3
Bellwethers:🔴 Northampton: Trump+2 (last poll: Harris+5)🟡 Erie: Tie (last poll: Harris+4)
Suffolk/USA Today | 10/27-30 | N=500LV
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SoCal National pole trump plus 1. (2nd +1 national pole released today
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SoCal also has Harris up two in PA. Not sure how that is compatible with them saying Trump up 1 nationally
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will get a new thread up around 9
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Atlas Intel ceo on its NC result;
“Our own poll also suggests Republicans will win the Election Day vote by quite a large margin. The only possible explanation is higher rates of Republicans and Independents voting for Kamala in NC than one would expect. Or perhaps Democratic turnout is indeed lagging and the poll result will be off because of that,” AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman said of the North Carolina result in an X post.”
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Sounds like a guy just wildly speculating and doesn’t know anything more than anyone else
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Doubtful that is cross over. No doubt he is speculating. However, it’s most likely due to just a bad pole. I think it’s difficult or more challenging to pole nc post hurricane.
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Cahaly possibly has the answer, a segment of Trump supporters who are not pollable. They won’t answer the phone or respond to a text
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What about polling on/around Halloween in general? Ll
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Quemala:
“Understand the difference here moving forward! Moving forward, understand the difference here! What we are looking at is a difference in this election. Let’s move forward and see where we are!”
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Harris is not going to win NC. If people are getting skittish about how our state is going to go, stop. All that analysis and fearmongering among so-called analysts are not NC residents but people who simply talking out of their rears or fears.
When the other 6 swing states went to Biden in 2020, NC still went Trump, picked up a senate seat and won a majority of our state’s other statewide offices, which had never been done before.
I guess some analysts need content or or far too emotionally neurotic to simply look at the real data (EVM, VBM) and see how the GOP is kicking butt and taking names.
Find something else to worry about.
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Did Monty Python ever use Kamala to write their material?
” I think all right-thinking people are sick and tired of being told that ordinary, decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired.”
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Some stuff doesn’t ad up in that PAMarist PA poll
McCormick has 48% but 21% never heard of him
Gender gap fell from 22% to 12%
Trump only winning whites by 4 pts
Kamala only on abortion 56-43 and only 12% cite it as a motivating factor
Trump only +7 on immigration
Trump only +2 on economy
Kamala ahead with Indies 55-40 (?)
Trump gets 90% of Rs, Kamala 87% of Ds
Trump get 16% of blacks
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If only 12% in PA thinks its a motivating factor and only 56% thinks Kamala wins on the issue the Dems wasted a lot of money on ads.
If Kamala really led Indies by 15% there is no way the races is only Kamala +2.
If Trump is only +4 with whites and onlyh +2 on economy he is toast
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Big jobs miss for Oct:
12,000 jobs created.
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The US added just 12,000 jobs in October – way short of the 100k expectations for payrolls.
Private jobs LOST 28,000 jobs and the previous two months were revised down 112k.
Definitely not the employment report that Kamala Harris wanted to see a few days before the election…
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112,000 downward revisions for last two months prior. We knew the September # was bogus, given it was all gubment jobs.
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I am not worried about NC.
I am worried about winning one of 3 PA, WI and MI.
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270-268 would be a nightmare.
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We lost 46,000 manufacturing jobs.
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Be interesting to see what the betting markets do following the horrible jobs report.
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They also have to cover up Biden altering transcript documents over the objections of the stenographers office regarding the garbage comment.
Did you know they also are trotting out Biden’s stuttering problem.
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so basically a LOSS of 100,000 jobs heading into the election
”it’s the economy stupid”…
if Harris wins you can be sure of a pretty massive collapse
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New Thread
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