If this new Echelon Insights poll is anywhere close to accurate.
FINAL PENNSYLVANIA poll
🔴 Trump: 52% (+6)
🔵 Harris: 46%
Echelon Insights | 10/27-30 | N=600LV
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Election Over, Trump wins!
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
113 responses to “Election Over, Trump wins!”
First
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Shouldn’t there be a Boom with that one ???
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Are they reputable? I don’t know too much about them.
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DW, how is this pollsters reputation?
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the siren is the BOOM
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So far as I can tell this is the first battleground state poll from this pollster this year…for Trump v Harris.
However, just back in late-September, they had the national race polled at Trump 44, Harris 49.
Earlier, they had the national race Trump 49, Harris 48 when RFK dropped out.
But their national polls have been sane all year, usually within a point or two of a tie either way.
So they are not just always finding good news.
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Atlas intel trump plus 2 nationally. More of their state poles are incoming.
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FINAL WISCONSIN poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (=)
🔵 Harris: 49%
Echelon Insights | 10/27-30 | N=600LV
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Mediabiasfactcheck rates echelon as only slightly biased right. Rated “highly accurate”. FWIW
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same pollster:
FINAL WISCONSIN poll
🔴 Trump: 49% (=)
🔵 Harris: 49%
Echelon Insights | 10/27-30 | N=600LV
FINAL MICHIGAN poll
🔴 Trump: 48% (=)
🔵 Harris: 48%
Echelon Insights | 10/27-30 | N=600LV
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#NEW FINAL BATTLEGROUNDS poll – full ballot ARIZONA: Trump+5 NORTH
CAROLINA: Trump+4
NEVADA: Trump+4
GEORGA: Trump+2
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+1
MICHIGAN: Trump+1
WISCONSIN: Trump+0.3 AtlasIntel | 10/31-31 | LVs
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Folks, Harris as a PENNSYLVANIA problem. And with GA and NC increasingly looking out of play for her…
NC+GA+PA=270
Here again is the only chart you need, updated and fixed because I had missed a few. And remember some of the blue ones at the bottom are going to be releasing newer polls before Tuesday:
Pennsylvania Polling the last four weeks:
🔴 EchelonInsights: Trump+6
🔴 Big Data Poll: Trump+4
🔴 Democracy Institute: Trump+4
🔴 AtlasIntel: Trump+3
🔴 Rasmussen Reports: Trump+3
🔴 Trafalgar Group: Trump+3
🔴 Quinnipiac University: Trump+2
🔴 Fox News: Trump+1
🔴 Emerson College: Trump+2
🔴 Quantus Insights: Trump+2
🔴 InsiderAdvantage: Trump+1
🔴 Wall Street Journal: Trump+1
🔴 Monmouth University: Trump+1
🔴 Patriot Polling: Trump+1
🔴 Franklin & Marshall College: Trump+1
🔴 TIPP Insights: Trump+1
🔴 Wick Insights: Trump+1
🔴 American Pulse: Trump+1
🟡 CNN: Tie
🟡 Susquehanna: Tie
🟡 CBS: Tie
🟡 J.L. Partners
🟡 North Star Opinion Research: Tie
🟡 The Bullfinch Group: Tie
🟡 Hunt Research: Tie
🟡 Redfield & Wilton: Tie
🔵 UMASS-Lowell: Harris +1
🔵 Research Company: Harris +1
🔵 Morning Consult/Bloomberg: Harris +2
🔵 Wash. Post/George Mason University: Harris +2
🔵 Claremont McKenna College: Harris +2
🔵 NY Times/Siena College: Harris +4
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Like I’ve been saying. They’ve never been able to accurately poll Trump in Wisconsin. I believe polls showing Trump tied or down 1 in Wisconsin are really Trump leads. Just my opinion. And IF he’s really up 6 in Pennsylvania, he’s going to win Wisconsin. But that’s a big IF. Up six sounds too good to be true. However, if the National polling is really Trump + 2 or 3. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.
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So Atlas showing a clean sweep.
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🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+5
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump+4
🔴 NEVADA: Trump+4
🔴 GEORGA: Trump+2
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+1
🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+1
🔴 WISCONSIN: Trump+0.3
AtlasIntel | 10/31-31 | LVs
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Wonder if Trump will surge in the betting markets with these new polls?
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And pause a moment to consider the fact that the AZ and NV numbers from Atlas Intel are completely consistent with the early voting data we see in those two states.
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Honestly, I have my doubts about the overall stability of Atlas Intel. Just a few weeks ago they had Trump crushing the rust belt states by 2 or 3 in each state, and they had Trump struggling to win anything in the sun belt states.
Suddenly, its reversed?
I betcha its go more to do with their methodology than voters changing their minds.
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When is Selzer supposed to drop her final Iowa poll ?
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Alka seltzer pole? Saturday I think.
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WTH ????
Eric Daugherty: AtlasIntel has taken these polls down off their website… national poll remains up.
Supposedly took their State polls down.
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quick Florida early vote update. GOP still ahead by over 11 and a half spread, 44.63% to 32.94%
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So here’s this guys explanation for the sudden drop for Trump in the market. I know nothing about this stuff, so take it for what you will.
Bill Mitchell: “People may have noticed Trump is dropping on Polymarket. Why would that be when everything is looking so well?
I’ll explain it to you. The first big surge for Trump was started by some “whales” placing BIG bets. This brings in all the smaller retail investors. The whales ride the wave then sell at the top, collapsing the market then right before the election they buy back in cheap.
That’s why they are rich. 🙂
Trump is doing great.
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Not so fast. Did Trump have a Union card when he rode in the garbage truck? Asking for CNN.
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Jazz Shaw at Hot Air passed away, RIP. He was only in his 60’s and didn’t too bad he didn’t get to see Trump win (hopefully).
He was actually my least favorite poster there because he was extremely pro-Putin.
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Looks like Mark Cuban stepped into it Big Time. Could you imagine if Trump said something like this?
DISGUSTING: Top Kamala surrogate Mark Cuban says no “strong, intelligent women” support President Trump.
They’re now openly attacking the millions of strong, intelligent women fighting alongside President Trump every day to Make America Great Again.
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Atlas has lake ahead by 0.7%
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I’m going to error on the side of caution with +6 Trump Pa Echelon Insights poll and file it with the two CNN polls from yesterday (+5 Harris/Michigan and (+6Harris/Wisconsin) as outliers until other polls can confirm it.
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If I was the Trump campaign, I would immediately put up ads of Cuban’s remarks and run them in PA, MI & WI….. ALL WEEKEND. Cuban has been all over the place as one of Kamala’s top surrogates for the last month. You want to piss off some women who were on the fence about voting for Trump or not……run some ads showing Cubans remarks that the women working for Trump are not Strong or intelligent.
Hey, you listened to the deaf guys garbage truck stunt, now take my advice and go run some Cuban ads.
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The A-hole has one hit and immediately wants to take over the Trump campaign.
I guess those who tried to black ball at the A-hole Club him were wrong.
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The first time in Scooter’s life he heard applause really went to his head.
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Luntz:
It’s gonna be huge, because is not some comedian saying something stupid and offensive at a rally where he should have just been basically disinvited. This is the President of the United States, endorsing his Vice President, saying something. And I know that there is (sic) different interpretations about what he said. It’s still inappropriate. He still shouldn’t be doing it. And I’ve watched Trump already seize this. The (Hillary Clinton) basket of deplorables was significant. It was meaningful in 2016. In 2024, I can promise you, that this is going to drive Trump turnout, it’s doing it already, I can see, I’m sure there’s going to be ads on as soon as (Wednesday) tonight about this. This may be a turning point for those final 3 percent, and that’s all it is, who still need to be persuaded.
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Luntz, a bigger issue with her Thighness was when she had the medical issue and was thrown into the medical van. That happened in September and her numbers declined.
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He is such an Asshat …Mark Cuban said there are no “strong, intelligent women” around President Trump.
Disgusting and misogynistic. The left can’t even define what a woman is.
Great strategy.
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I posted a link before, but the largest Az newspaper is questioning why “comedian” George Lopez Mexican remark was not also disregarded by quemala
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FINAL NORTH CAROLINA poll
🔴 Trump: 51.1% (+4)
🔵 Harris: 47.1%
🟢 Other: 1.8%
@BIGDATAPOLL
| Released 10/31 | N=1,157LV
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I’m going to error on the side of caution with +6 Trump Pa Echelon Insights poll and file it with the two CNN polls from yesterday (+5 Harris/Michigan and (+6Harris/Wisconsin) as outliers until other polls can confirm it.”
But remember the CNN polls didn’t reflect any change from their previous polls.
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Damm, Tina beat out DW.
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s questioning why “comedian” George Lopez Mexican remark was not also disregarded by quemala”
MSNBC says it is because George Lopez is allowed to “make fun of himself”.
If the comedian had been Hispanic, no one would have objected (sarc.)
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Dw, I read that Atlas Intel took over polling for Blooomberg?
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”The A-hole has one hit and immediately wants to take over the Trump campaign.”
Hey, when an A-hole is showing productive movement, the last thing you want to do is ignore it.
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I would run an RFK ad in WI and MI and have him say.
Thank you for your support but now we are for Trump.
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ok, maybe hee haw is helping in Ga. But keep multiple eyes and ears on rattburger. As sos, presumably he would know how many votes are outstanding.
Rememberer, his first 2020 after election interview, he falsely stated that the margins showing trump leasing would not change.
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leading*
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538 page has flipped PA from EVEN to R+1
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Suicidal tendencies.
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I’m Scooter, and I approve this message.
Bill Mitchell: “WHY TRUMP IS GOING TO WIN:
You know, we here on X in the political spaces are so involved in the political process, we follow every story and every nuance. But we have to remember that the average voter is not like us. They typically don’t think about politics at all until the last week before the election. Nine times out of 10 they’re going to vote their pocketbooks. It’s always “the economy stupid.”
These people are suffering under the Biden Harris regime. Food costs more, gas cost more, rent and mortgage cost more, Insurance costs more, utilities cost more. They can’t take the family out to dinner for less than a hundred bucks!
This is a change election and change candidates win change elections. Trump is the change candidate and Kamala Harris despite her claims to the contrary is the status quo. Regular folks know that.
Remember, 99% of voters will never go to a political rally. The race is won or lost by the people that weren’t at the rally. The race is won or lost by people who just want America to work.
This is why Trump is going to win!
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Paul, you will be fine. If Trump wins, you too will benefit from his strong economy. He won’t lock up political enemies like your party does.
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House staying in control of the republicans is rising in markets predicting election results.
Republicans – 55.6%
Democrats. – 44.4%
https://electionbettingodds.com/
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I still have hope that we can cheat.
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WISCONSIN poll
🔵 Harris: 48% (=)
🔴 Trump: 48%
Last poll: Harris+3.5
TIPP | 10/28-30 | LVs
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Or heart attack.
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Paul, Marxism is overrated unless you are in the leadership. If you are a peon, which you are, the most you can hope for is a bigger desk closer to the window.
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“the most you can hope for is a bigger desk closer to the window.”
That was always my dream at the A- hole clubhouse.
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so apparently, Dem money is more wisely spent driving Trump down and Harris up on the betting markets, than spending the money on campaign ads and GOTV efforts.
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What ????
KAMALA: “I have fought for many who have harmed other human beings.”
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Trump has stabilized on both Predictit and Polymarket, not sure if because of the latest polls. Now 64-36 at Polymarket,it was 67-33 at its best.
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Quemala is morphing into Demented.
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LOL
Trump sues CBS for $10 billion.
The discovery on how they edited Kamala’s interview will be fascinating.
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Naomi Wolf endorses Trump.
No, I don’t really know who she is.
GFYs.
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Jason, she is a 3rd wave feminist author who saw the light a couple of years ago. Had some official roles in the Clinton and Gore campaigns as well.
Naomi R. Wolf: The Independent Institute
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Of course news organizations can edit their content. Obviously they can choose what portions of an interview to broadcast and which ones not to air, even if the result is unfair or biased.
The question is can they edit it dishonestly and deceptively in order to “protect” a candidate they favor. In other words can they splice and tamper with the wording to concoct something that was not actually said.
Trump is alleging that they doctored what they broadcast, rather than just choose what to air.
I will let the lawyers opine on whether Trump might have the case if it can be proven that is what CBS did.
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What was playing on CNN radio this afternoon.
People have to learn to accept the outcome of elections and not protest the outcomes like the Ds did in GA in 2018 and the Rs did in 2020. There is absolutely no frud or cheating going on in any election today.
Then an ad from an atheist organization leader railing against the Christian cabal that wants to erase separation of church and state. He closed with “I am Ron Reagan, professed atheist. Not afraid to burn in hell.”
Then Kamala saying lots of words.
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Thank GF, will take your word for it.
Evidently she endorsed Trump on Bannon’s show.
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NolteNC
Mark Cuban and Joe Biden trampling all over hideous Kamala’s closing message is glorious to witness.
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Oh, and also a story on CNN of how Elon Musk is so dangerous because he has 200 million followers on X and he says all these pro Trump things. and tells lies about voter irregularities and voter fraud and problems with voting machines that have all been debunked.
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Not afraid to burn in hell.”
Godspeed.
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Trump has stabilized on both Predictit and Polymarket”
Nice to see Trump is “stabilized” somewhere.
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DId CNN say anything about Soros, Gates, Cuban, Steyer, etc.?
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I must admit that it’s usually an R that phuqs up the closing campaign.
look at Biden’s beitch and goober in 2022 as examples.
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According to DRUDGE, Trump is totally unhinged and about to snap at any moment mentally.
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Nice to see Trump is “stabilized” somewhere.”
Heh, one of Walt’s best zingers since he was a jester in Henry VIII’s court.
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I think doltz is next to trample on quemalas closing campaign.
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Walt was an advisor to Marie Antoinette. He told her to tell the peasants to eat cake. That one really bombed.
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Yikes more trampling of quemala by the sexist.
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That one really bombed.”
Really? On his resumé he says his advice was so good people lost their heads over it.
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Wow, MSNBC has a real winner there!
“Many young voters are watching Trump’s ‘Access Hollywood’ video for the first time
Eight years after the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape was made public, Trump’s comments remain as appalling as ever.”
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Closing argument?
Trot out Access Hollywood.
Could be a game changer.
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“The question is can they edit it dishonestly and deceptively in order to ‘protect’ a candidate they favor. In other words can they splice and tamper with the wording to concoct something that was not actually said.”
Here, I’ll help you out. It’s called ‘election interference”. That said, Trump has already tried similar lawsuits against CNN and the NYT but to no awail.
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Byron York throws cold water on everyone. He thinks there is huge “enthusiasm” for Harris. He bases it on interviewing people at the Harris rally.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/daily-memo/3210763/you-cant-tell-who-is-winning-race/
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Byron York concludes there is a population explosion in the US. He bases his conclusion on interviews he conducted at the Johns Hopkins maternity ward.
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The MSM is telling everyone that “enthusiasm” is high. Maybe Byron York is shocked and awed.
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They keep trying to push this surge. It’s the quietest surge in history…so much so that no one knows about it.
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I am beginning to think Trump might just drag Lake across the finish line with him if he can win by about 4 points in AZ.
She only lost the governor’s race by less than 20k votes and that was without Trump on the ballot.
I will list this race as my “surprise” Senate pick. Or maybe Hovde. Have to think about it.
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She went as low as about 18% chance, now 31% at Predictit.
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Study finds M&Ms as the top candy for Halloween. I call shenanigans on that.
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Speaking of M&Ms, I learned the other night at trivia that “Snickers” was the name of the Mars family’s horse.
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I learned something at HHR? Cool.
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My wife and I were talking about candy we did not like as children. I used to give my dad the unchewable brick of peanut butter – Goldberg’s Peanut Chews.
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Peanut M&M’s are the best !!!!
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I think it was an unfair analysis. It grouped all types of M&Ms together in order to beat the Reese’s Peanut Butter cup.
My favorite is the Butterfinger bar.
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I remember returning home with heavy loads of treats, but by the time I’d purged the apples, raisins and Mary Jane’s peanut butter kisses, there would be barely a two-day supply.
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What’s with the booing at the Kamala Harris’ rallies….Raleigh, NC and now Harrisburg, Pa. According to some it was loud….at least four times. Don’t agree with it generally but WTF?
This is Trump redux 2016.
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Red Eagle Politics
@RedEaglePatriot
Trump lost Puerto Ricans in Florida 66-34 in 2020. PA results were similar. The most recent poll that dropped from Cygnal, conducted mostly after the Madison Square Garden rally, shows Donald Trump winning Florida Puerto Ricans by two points. This is disastrous for Democrats.
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Reeses Peanut Butter went first. No one took Peppermint Patties. I guess I will have to eat them.
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This past Sunday was Muh comedian and it was the end of trump.
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Az R ballot lead is 163,000
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We had a little over 100 trick or treaters.
The wife thought it was a good idea to have three containers, one filled with chocolate (bags of M&Ms), one with bags of pretzels and one with chocolate chip granola bars. She thought if she told them they could choose one they would [pick one small individually wrapped item. Instead, they often took one bag of candy, plus one bag of pretzels and plus one granola bar. They do not understand the concept of “you may take one”.
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I am so old…that back in my youth that when we went trick or treating at at Halloween, we never had to worry about razor blades or needles being inserted into our candy. Nobody took their candy to get it X-rayed.
They were indeed the good ol days.
**********************
Here is a Halloween joke.
Why can ghosts not have babies?
ANSWER: they have Hollow Weenies.
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Pretzels? Granola bars? WTF. Booooooo
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Those were the houses that got an “X” over their door.
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NT at 9:00
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I think Walt is confusing Halloween with the Ancient Egypt Festival where he handed out figs and dates.
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I think next year I will just get Reeses Peanut Butter Cups.
90% of the kids pick them.
The other 10% can GFTs.
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Walt remembers celebrating Samhain with the Celts.
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I guess there are worse places for kids to go than Walt’s house. Poor little ghouls are getting organic maple syrup and desiccated bark bars over at Tgca’s house.
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I used to like Mark Cuban because of his Shark Tank persona. After his dumb woman comment, he is just another unthinking operative for the dem party.
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New thread
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