According to Rasmussen Reports. 1,014 Virginia Likely Voters was conducted on October 24-25, 2024.
 | VIRGINIA |
| Trump | 46 |
| Harris | 48 |
Same release has Trump 50, Harris 44 in Texas, and Cruz ahead 47 to 43 in the Senate race.
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Margin of Error race in Virginia
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
57 responses to “Margin of Error race in Virginia”
First
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Eat Chit , Jason !!!
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VIRGINIA poll
🔵 Harris: 48% (+2)
🔴 Trump: 46%
🟢 Other: 4%
🟡 Undecided: 3%
@Rasmussen_Poll | 10/24-25 | N=1,014LV
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Ooops, sorry DW. Was concentrating so much on getting the first, that I forgot to read the thread Title !!!!
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its okay, you supplied the other and undecided data.
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Any Senate numbers? I’m curious to see how many Trump-Kaine voters there are, or if the “other” voters for POTUS are all Kaine folks down ballot.
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VIRGINIA
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟪 Other: 4%
VA Senate
🟦 Kaine (inc): 50%
🟥 Hung Cao: 39%
🟪 Other: 3%
——
TEXAS
🟥 Trump: 50%
🟦 Harris: 44%
🟪 Other: 1%
TX Senate
🟥 Cruz (inc): 47%
🟦 Allred: 43%
🟪 Other: 3%
——
N=2,016 | October 24-26 | MoE: ±3%
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The mn pole (sorry if already a duplicate entry) prolly explains why Doltz was in Mn for several days last week.
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The Dem Hitler ruse is already having a backlash effect from the Jews.
https://www.breitbart.com/faith/2024/10/28/nazi-rally-fail-hasidic-jews-endorse-trump-after-msg-event-harris-a-threat-to-the-jewish-people/
Israel’s Arutz Sheva reported the endorsement on Monday, under the headline “[Kamala] Harris Is Bad for Jews”:
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Yup it is backfiring in quemala who hates people of faith.
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Rasmussen – trump plus 1
Baris sees the national at plus trump 2. (Or 1-3.)
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Trump will not get more than 12-15% of black vote. If he is ahead of Kamala among black voters, they are simply not going to vote in the same percentages as their polling average would indicate. IF, all of these polls that are promising for Trump are based on the numbers from black voters, then they should be taken with a grain of salt.
Just as a big lead among adults too often helps the DEMS, when there is a surge among populations that have historically voted for the other party, then they simply dont show. they wont vote for her, but they will not vote for him either.
Hopefully he can get 15%. that would be amazing.
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so a Muslim group endorsed Trump on the weekend and a Jewish group roday
but somehow the media is continuing with he’s a racist fascist nazi
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There were also pics at the msg rally of individuals from those same groups, Vic, I posted one. Quemala has flatlined. She has nothing but anger and fear
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“ I understand why some people were offended by a comedians jokes last night. But those weren’t Trump’s words. They were jokes by an insult comic who offends virtually everyone, all the time….. because that is what insult comedians do.”
“What isn’t a joke is how Kamala Harris destroyed our economy and allowed dangerous criminals to illegally enter our country and terrorize, rape and murder Americans.”
“And what isn’t a joke and truly outrageous is how “journalists” are helping Kamala Harris’s with her dangerous campaign of hate by calling Trump the new Hitler and how MSNBC used old footage of Nazi rallies TO SMEAR TRUMP SUPPORTERS AS NAZIS!”
-Marco Rubio
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A much more diverse and potent coalition is coalescing around Trump. They are smart, articulate, successful, and willing to rise above and challenge the dem oligarchs and their entrenched operatives in the government, media, academia etc. A partial list of this group is Elon Musk, Danica Patrick, Bobby Kennedy, Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek, Tucker Carlson – all very talented, outspoken people.
https://nypost.com/2024/10/27/opinion/trumps-new-coalition-of-maga-avenger-allies-gather-to-back-their-captain-america-at-msg/
”Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson calls them “the X-Men,” the Marvel Comics superheroes, the “misfit mutant” geniuses come to save the Republic. They are Trump’s warriors against the monsters of the Deep State and the Blob of censorship, surveillance and war.”
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Good catch, Tina!
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From a guy who follows MN early voting. Just thought I’d post it after seeing the MN poll.
Turnout % compared to 2020
Statewide Average 35.9%
CD 1 – 33% – Walz’s home base
CD2 – 40% (!!)
CD3 – 40% (!!)
CD4 – 33% (?)
CD5 – 30% (?)
CD6 – 37% (!!)
CD7 – 36% (!!)
CD8 – 39% (!!)
Why this matters?
CD 4 and 5 are inner city Mpls and St Paul and first ring suburbs. That’s where Dems need high turnout to vote bank. You can see they’re well below the statewide average
CD 2 is southern Twin Cities metro. This district has been trending R by 3% or so
CD3 is the northern and western Twin Cities. This district along with CD2 will likely determine how much Republican vote banking can happen to offset whatever the Dems get in CD 4 and 5.
CD 6 7 8 are all heavy Republican and 8 includes Duluth and the Arrowhead/Iron Range.
CD1 – Walz’s home base and he’s not doing well.
If this is absentee + EV, it is closer to a 2018/2022 turnout so far and redder than those because it’s a presidential yr.
If this is only mail in — Dems are in big trouble because they need to get over 50% of the total vote out of early voting methods (probably mail mostly) and I’m not sure I see it happening.
They’ll need to get to 50% of 2020 turnout by next Monday’s early voting deadline which is around 900K statewide and 40K more in CD4 for 120K there and 65K in CD5 for 130K there
The problem is if EVIP is thrown in, it gets you another 400K votes or so that are 60/40 Republican, you have 80K Republican vote bank. That becomes very difficult to overcome if you believe ED voting will be 1.2 to 1.5M and 5-8% net Repub for around 100K more R vote bank.
You can assume that Republicans will show up on ED given these turnout numbers for what I assume is mail in ballots. Not trying to give false hopes, but I was just surprised when I ran the numbers.
We’ve been burned in MN before, I know. I assumed my models in 2020 were foretelling the story and I’m a jaded skeptic.
BUT, with VA’s trend, NH getting redder, and NM within the MoE, it’s impossible to deny that MN is going to be interesting.
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The so-called X Men grouping, coming together to support the Republican party’s candidate, seem far more of an interesting, compelling attraction than the hollowed out, false-faced Hollywood types Harris is dragging out to entertain her bused-in audiences.
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Nevada
RCP AVERAGEDATE
TRUMP (R)
HARRIS (D)SPREADTop Battlegrounds10/2848.447.5
Trump+0.9ArizonaOctober 28th49.247.7
Trump+1.5NevadaOctober 28th47.847.1
Trump+0.7WisconsinOctober 28th48.147.8
Trump+0.3MichiganOctober 28th47.947.8
Trump+0.1PennsylvaniaOctober 28th48.147.6
Trump+0.5North CarolinaOctober 28th48.647.8
Trump+0.8GeorgiaOctober 28th49.246.9
Trump+2.3
RealClearPolitics Poll Average48.4Trump+0.947.5Harris
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Trump,+0.2 national average.
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(rcp national avg)
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Broadly…
“Trump said Harris “pledged to confiscate your guns.” In 2019, Kamala Harris spoke in favor of “mandatory” programs to buy back assault weapons. As vice president, Harris has focused on other gun measures. She has not called for confiscating guns broadly. https://t.co/soLCbLloys— PolitiFact (@PolitiFact)
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No updates from Silverhack or Ralstonhack?
I guess there is no good news to report.
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“Broadly”
BB guns and water guns will be allowed as long as they are registered and pay liability insurance.
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Bad news in Nv. Hopefully, a federal judge can halt this
https://www.8newsnow.com/news/politics/nevada-supreme-court-rules-mail-in-ballots-without-postmarks-can-be-counted-after-election-day/
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pa is the problem. Because Trump chose not to fight for NE-2 which I believe to be a major error he needs to win something in the rust belt and I still don’t feel confident it won’t be stolen by Philly Detroit and Milwaukee leaving him down 270-268
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Multiple places reporting a lackluster “souls to the poles,” which is now noted in an internal Trump memo:
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I think this is a different MN poll.
General election poll – Minnesota
🔵 Harris 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump 45%
2020 Results – 🔵 Biden +7
Embold R – LV – 10/22
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Newsweek has just reported in the last hour or so that super hack Nate Silver has moved 3 swing states back in Harris’ column…
https://www.newsweek.com/three-swing-states-harris-shift-nate-silver-1976035
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Vic, trump may be short with the ev, this has been a bad two days with the Muh comedian shit show and the Nv supreme court news. I guess they decide and not Congress.
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I still don’t think the Puerto Rico thing will hurt him more than bing called a nazi fascist on national tv
btw. Newsweek saves this for the end of the article
However, the shifts in Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia are relatively small. As it stands, Harris is leading in only two of the seven battleground states in Silver’s model—Michigan and Wisconsin.
According to the latest forecast, Trump leads in Arizona by 2.1 points and by 1.3 in North Carolina.
Harris and Trump are even in Nevada, thanks to Trump’s 0.6-point increase to level Harris’ 47.9 percent in the last week.
In Pennsylvania—the golden goose of the battleground states thanks to its 19 electoral votes—Harris and Trump remain tight, with Harris 0.3 points behind.”
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Yeahm but did Silverfish ever factor in the two new Michigan poles today?
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“Bad news in Nv. Hopefully, a federal judge can halt this”
It means they can see how far short they are on election night, then put their order in for new ballot, get them delivered whenever after election day, and bingo, they “win” Nevada by 300 votes.
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Embold Research = MinnPoll
Same poll
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Yikes.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14012181/tim-walz-fling-china-communist-daughter-kamala-harris-vp.html
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maybe silver hack has moved them back in harris column. He is protecting his income from his true believers. Bet his odds dint change with who his simulations say are going to win.
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I’m not saying he’s right, but if Baris is seeing a Trump +1 to +3 in his Nationally polling, how does Trump lose? When is the last time a Repub won the popular vote?
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“When is the last time a Repub won the popular vote?”
Mute 43 in 2004
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That was a nod to Tina, BTW. I always criticized Bush Jr. for taking it on the chin from Dems and never fighting back.
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So, they asked Vance about Muh racist comedian joke. He said that we all need to take a chill pill. He did not see the joke. He also mentioned George Lopez’s “joke,” but more along the same lines that we need to take a chill pill. Here is the video of his rally. His remarks are at the 36 minute + mark (final q and a). Let it go and stay on message:
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Concur, Tina; way too much bedwetting around here on something that’s getting even less traction than the grope thing last week.
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He is an “upgrade” compared to Depends. When in, I hope he makes a difference. Depends was terrible. He could not speak well; sandbagged Flynn; and hired the drat Covid task force of lunatics.
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Breaking USA Away aka USA Today does not endorse any candidate.
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Vance also said that Quemalas closing campaign comsists of the following:
1. Trump is Hitler.
2. A comedian at his campaign event told a bad joke 4 hours before Trump spoke.
Vance indicates this does not serve her well.
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What have I been saying about the strategy of poll, hold, wait till its needed, and then release to stop the trend of bad news:
ARIZONA poll by University of Arizona
🔵 Harris: 46%
🔴 Trump: 45%
🟣 Other: 3%
—
AZ Senate
🔵 Gallego: 51%
🔴 Lake: 36%
🟣 Other: 2%
N=846 RV | October 12-20
https://policylab.arizona.edu/news/survey-arizona
There are EIGHT polls of Arizona that are fresher than this one.
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So USA Today also cannot endorse the person trying to stop Hitler!
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I don’t expect Lake to win, but she’s also not losing by fifteen points. This poll is garbage, as almost all university polls are (they lack and the funding and both peronnel and technological resources to conduct high quality, granular polling.
And no, this is not an HHR tradition to toss any poll; college polls suck. Period.
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Day of judgment is coming for pollsters…when I post the first ever Hedgehog Report pollster grades. They will be honest grades based on actual performance.
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And the az pole is of registered voters. Come on man to quote demented
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poll of registered voters, over 8 days and more than a week stale. Yeah, that’s reflective of the state of the race now. Lol
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The rate of growth of the GOP’s lead in Florida ballot returns has slowed today…increasing from 44.95 to only 45.15. But at a certain point this is expected. The gap is 11.60 (!) How high can it go?
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PENNSYLVANIA poll by North Star Opinion Research (R) for American Greatness
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
PA Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 45%
🟥 McCormick: 42%
🟪 Thomas: 2%
🟩 Hazou: 1%
⬜ Other: 2%
——
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new thread
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