Here is one that is frankly disappointing:
PENNSYLVANIA poll by North Star Opinion Research (R) for American Greatness
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
PA Senate
🟦 Casey (inc): 45%
🟥 McCormick: 42%
🟪 Thomas: 2%
🟩 Hazou: 1%
⬜ Other: 2%
——
- #239 (1.1/3.0) | 600 LV | 10/22-26
- Party ID: D44/R41/I15 | MoE: ±4%
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
170 responses to “Evening thread no letup in new polls”
first
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1st
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I can never understand how you can get an accurate snapshot of an election with such a small sample of 600.
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DW, if Trump is actually winning Catholics by that huge a margin, he’s not going to lose the state.
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Hazou has signs everywhere at intersections. I can’t see how anybody who likes her agenda would support McCormick otherwise, so she is definitely costing Casey some votes.
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Not to mention the “was I better off under Trump?” sentiment being twelve points in his favor (50-38).
Jan, 600 is OK, but will have a larger MOE as a result; 4% leaves a LOT of wiggle room. They should have polled a thousand or more to get that down to the 2ish range for MOE, especially when everyone suspects that the race is so tight. But, I tend to think that pollsters are starting to cover their tails, so that they can claim a Trump +2 win as being well within their MOEs.
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I guess my concern is the trend in PA.
Insider Advantage was Trump +2, now recent poll Trump +1
Redfield and Wilton was a tie, now recent poll is Harris +1
A few have gone the other way. But its difficult because there is no path to any sort of GOP blowout in the state. Any win will be a narrow one, making it nerve-wracking.
I wish I knew what Fabrizio was seeing.
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it is disappointing
I still don’t understand how anyone could vote for Harris. What does she bring to the office of the presidency other than here sex and ethnicity?
it’s why I’ve been pushing and pushing and pushing for NE-2. Maybe Trump has been polling it, and with redistributing knew he would lose it
I also don’t know how an offhand joke, taken out of context, by an obscure comedian four hours before Trump went on air could detail the entire campaign.
but that’s what the media is trying to do. Change the narrative so she has momentum this week
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Before doing a rally in Atlanta, GA tonight Trump stopped off at a faith summit meeting in Powder Springs, GA. There he spoke and answered questions for about an hour, after which he received a prayer, for his safety and continuing wisdom, from religious members of the audience. It made me wonder how anyone can believe the Hitler inference being cultivated by the left, when you earlier have a Holocaust victim railing against their smears, followed by so many prayers and laying of hands on Trump, from the religious community, supporting and asking for Devine protection over him in seeking the presidency
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I think we need to realize that polls that are tied or show a small lead are still probably underestimating him. By 1-3% as they always have.
it could be he wins Wi or Mi which will make PA mute. Especially with the endorsement from Dearborn
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Thanks GF for your polling perspective.
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Yup more bad news. Detroit news pole has quemala plus 3.
who vetted the comedian?
it’s a bad polling day.
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Silverhack:
“Just a set of polling today that’s completely all over the place. Good numbers for Harris in Nebraska and Kansas (?!?). Good numbers for Trump in Minnesota and New Hampshire. At least there’s not the usual pollster herding we’ve seen in recent weeks where everybody just publishes the numbers everyone expects.
Still, the most important poll of the day is probably from Wisconsin, a high-quality Suffolk poll that showed Trump up 1 point there. Not much of a lead, but the Badger State has gone from polls slowing a slight Harris lead to a pure toss-up. And the overall Electoral College is still well within toss-up range too, Trump is starting to have just slightly more winning maps in our simulations, with his highest win probably since Sept. 17.”
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We may come up,short here because of Nebraska.
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With an assist from the nevada sc.
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I doubt the Detroit poll has anything to do with the comedian, probably taken earlier.
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Not to mention the “was I better off under Trump?” sentiment being twelve points in his favor (50-38)”
38 is absurd.
People are lying to cover for the administration.
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We live in a fast moving media cycle. This rally will be old news by tomorrow.
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The slight shifts from +2 to +1 etc are all noise. Looks at the broader environment; Trump is still slightly favored, and no stupid comic is going to derail that.
Yes, Harris can still win, but make no mistake, she has not landed any body blows.
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By going to Virginia, & New Mexico…. Trump must think he’s got the Rust belt pretty much wrapped up, or he’s making a bone headed decision by not spending all his time in swing States before Election Day. I’m not sure what to think.
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And just in time, Doltz, the gift on giving, gives us something today:
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I’m better off than I was four years ago. It has nothing to do with the federal government and everything to do with my work.
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Trump has spent the bulk of the past four months at least in the rust belt; taking a day on a lark to VA and NM, where polling is close in both states, is not going to cost him the election
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I don’t worry about Nevada. If Trump wins Nevada he didn’t need it. The key is Georgia plus Pennsylvania, as DW has repeatedly said. The other path is Georgia plus Arizona plus any one of the blue wall states. The only scenario where Nevada is crucial is in the longshot of a Georgia plus Arizona plus Nevada plus Nebraska congressional district, which would give Trump 269 EV and send the election to the house. The key is getting at least ONE of the blue wall states.
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going elsewhere makes news, like the MSG rally
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ok. Let’s not jump off the ledge. The comedian said this yesterday evening. I didn’t even think it was that big a deal but people here seem to be freaking out (I was too).
these same polls would have come out today with or without the bad joke. I am concerned when I try not to be, but if his campaign were that fragile, and Americans so fickle that because a comedian made a joke which bombed, it means they elect a Marxist, then America deserves what it gets
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Another one.
Tampa Bay Times decides not to endorse for president – Axios
The paper endorsed Biden in 2020 and Clinton in 2016
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AMEN, Victor!
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Doesn’t look like NE-02 is in the cards. Trump consistently down 10.
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glengariff poll of MI same margin as prior poll…they are fixated on RFK getting mid single digits….I am skeptical of that
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CNN analysis:
Trump WAS doing well with Hispanics until rally backlash!
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It would be good for RFK to go to MI and WI and say don’t throw away your vote, vote Trump.
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CNN… wish casting. Even if it was a scandal, way too soon to show up in polling
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They couldn’t let this lady give a speech at yesterdays msg rally, in lieu of Muh comedian?
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Why Trump can’t pretend his rally’s anti-Puerto Rican racism was just a joke
Viewing anti-Puerto Rico jokes merely through a political lens misses the bigger picture.”
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first of all Hispanics who are not Puerto Rican won’t care much we have to stop believing it’s one big bloc. Cubans and Mexicans don’t like each other.
South Americans vote different than other groups. Puerto Ricans who vote here in the USA are almost exclusively Dems
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Just in case it would be good to bring out some Puerto Rican supporters front and center.
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Puerto Ricans who vote here in the USA are almost exclusively Dems”
Rs have made gains.
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I have a Puerto Rican friend. He would laugh that a joke would make him change his mind. That being said, he is a die hard Trump supporter and doesn’t vote in PA.
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From the circus clown:
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Last night when I mentioned the joke possibly being a concern, pretty much everyone here told me it would be no big deal. I knew it might be a little bit of concern when the Trump and Scott campaigns immediately fired off statements distancing themselves from it.
How much of a difference will it make, who knows?
But it was still an unforced error this late in the game IMO .
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that kind of crap from Whoopi actually helps push the PR story down the food chain
At the end of the day I still think people will vote with their pocketbook
Jason…I do agree they have made gains, but it’s still heavily Dem and I don’t think a joke by a comedian is going to cut into the voting totals much
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it was absolutely an unforced error and didn’t someone have to approve his content
I agree it’s a distraction and just one more thing for us to worry about when we’re already worried the election will be stolen somehow
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Jason. It would not hurt to bring out some Puerto Rican help
I hadn’t thought of how the joke might affect Scott in florida
Dems are saying it ensures they will win the presidency house and senate
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Jeebus, Scooter, come off the ledge! Trump and Scott are just issuing the pro-forma responses that smart campaigns do. Harris et al will make a huge issue of this since they have nothi by else to run on; aligned PACs are already reaching out via the NYT to tell Harris that the whole fascist schtick isn’t working and they need something else pronto.
The idea that FL is in any way jeopardized by this is Dem wish casting.
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GF, I’m not on any ledge. And I’m not saying it will cost either Scott or Trump their elections. But it would be ridiculous to believe that it wasn’t an unforced error at a critical juncture in the election. Trump had all the momentum going into the last week. He still might, but there was no excuse to allow that to happen. Those speeches are approved by the campaigns. It should have never happened . That’s all I’m saying.
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You can make the argument that the people really offended are white liberals who hate Trump.
But propaganda works. I think this would have been worse next Sunday, there is still time to “recover” if recovery is indeed needed.
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Az Rs have expanded their ev lead to over 103,000.
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Walz was banging a the daughter of a Chinese government official. Imagine if it was Vance.
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Trump actually gained in chance to win popular vote at Polymarket today.
Now 43%
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024?tid=1730158979389
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There about 472,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania. They’re 3.69% of the total population and 53% of the state’s Hispanic population.
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I can’t believe there a folks on here fretting over a flat joke from a 3rd string comedian. The MSN propaganda machine has already branded Trump the second coming of Hitler for crying out loud. I would think the millions of Puerto Ricans who migrated to the USA would agree with the statement anyway. Probably the reason they made the journey from there to here.
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Wtf?
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Trump’s rallies are not long enough and they need to add comedians? Jan watches all of them so she can tell us if comedians are a standard part of rallies.
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The people suffering the most from last night’s inappropriate Puerto Rico “joke”:will be Tony Hindcliffe, the hapless comic whose content did not suit the event, and the campaign aide who hired him. Supposedly his speech was reviewed beforehand, but somehow that part of his gig was not noticed. Of course the rabid press, with little else to get their teeth into, but Nazi and joke recriminations, will exploit this slight for all its worth. The funny thing is that factually Puerto Rico does have a trash problem since 2017, with not enough land fill to deal with its refuse. Nonetheless, Jennifer Lopez and the Puerto Rican rapper Bad Bunny immediately came out and endorsed Harris, as part of the fall out from that joke. Otherwise, surrogates, like Bryan Donald’s, have been out on the news circuit downplaying this incident, and with other Hail Marys sure to come from the Dems in these closing days of the election, it will be soon be an issue of the past.
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LOL Some joke told by some comedian is supposed to be some sort of game changer? You people need to get real. Good Lord.
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Donalds is black, not a good surrogate. Trump needs some of the influential Hispanics that have endorsed him to help out.
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LOL Some joke told by some comedian is supposed to be some sort of game changer? You people need to get real. Good Lord:”
It’s not the joke. It’s the narrative. It has to be countered. Trump is good at that.
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I think Trump should be concerned that he has no support from the Incan-American community at the polls.
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I think that if these folks are really on the ledge regarding the stupid joke last night that didnt come from Trump himself need to take a break from politics and social media for a couple days as you people are simply overwrought.
I expect belligerent comments here but wasnt prepared for all these neurotic posts.
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I think Trump should be concerned that he has no support from the Incan-American community at the polls.”
Not true. We are 100% for Trump whether voting for him or not.
Even Lupita made her choice. She ate the sheet of paper with Trump’s picture first. It is a sign she prefers him.
Of course, generally she likes men better than women, I am sure it has nothing to do with the fact mostly it has been men who feed her.
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It’s not the joke. It’s the narrative. It has to be countered. Trump is good at that.
Exactly !!!
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I expect belligerent comments here but wasnt prepared for all these neurotic posts”
Hey moron.
Nobody is neurotic. Every one here know it was a 30 second joke in hours of speeches. At most it was in bad taste.
But the MSM narrative is that Trump is racist and hates Puerto Ricans. This narrative has to be challenged and countered. Just like the Nazi narrative.
GFY.
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So no Incan-Americans are voting for Trump in PA. Got it.
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I only read about Muh comedian at this site. I don’t go. to drat sites. It’s like an obsession here.
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And I think I got a vote for Trump.
Janzam was going to write-in Putin, I think I have persuaded her to change her mind.
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I don’t go. to drat sites.”
LOL
You don’t go to non-cult sites.
Fixed it for you.
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See the two free passers are on the Muh comedian like flies on sheot.
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The Nazi comment was directly attributed to Trump. They needed to refute it.
Nobody thinks Trump made the joke nor believes he hates Puerto Ricans.
Anyone who would fall for that already was voting for Harris.
You really arent just a belligerent moron, you dont have the good sense God gave geese, either.
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don’t go. to drat sites.”
I have news for Gateway Tina.
80% of America gets their news from “drat sites”.
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you dont have the good sense God gave geese, either.”
I know, has to be heavily discounted due to the source, but worth a few points.
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I believe trump did two events today and nobody even asked about it. They did ask Vance who quickly knocked down the sheot. Maybe, he will be asked about it tomorrow, You know one of the leakage ones from faux would have asked about it.
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Correction: you and the wine chicks get their news from the drat sites.
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No they dont get their news from drat sites. They get it from drat podcasters and already are voting for Harris if they are stupid enough to believe the narrative about the joke.
Even the msm pushing the joke story are doing it to lay the groundwork for Harris’ speech tomorrow denouncing the fascist threat that want to present Trump as being.
that is it. and nobody who is for Trump or who is still undecided, cares or will fall for it.
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The Nazi comment was directly attributed to Trump.”
You are an idiot.
The Puerto Rico comment is being attributed directly to Trump too, if not that he said but that it reflects his thinking.
It is a lie that has to be challenged.
Of course, you are weapons grade stupid.
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It’s a lie that has to be gas lighted at this site.
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No they dont get their news from drat sites”
Yeah, they do.
80% of people still get their news from MSM news. ABC, NBC, CBS and their associated liberal sites like MSNBC, CNBC, PBS, NPR, CNN, etc.
90% of printed/online newspapers with national influence are far left. NYT, WAPO, LAT, Chicago Tribune, USA Today, etc.
The news aggregators, AP, UPI, Reuters, etc. are all far left.
You let them run away with a narrative, it can damage you.
Trump knows that.
But we know he is smarter the Albertus Ignoramus.
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LOL
Washpost has lost 200,000 subscribers since Bezos pulled the Harris endorsement. That’s 8% of its base in a few days.
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“Anyone who would fall for that already was voting for Harris.
You really arent just a belligerent moron, you dont have the good sense God gave geese, either.”
Supposedly the Trump and Scott campaigns were concerned enough that they issued statements distancing themselves from it. They could have just ignored it completely.
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Breaking Lucerne county and York County find more potentially fraudulent ballots,
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If Trump loses it won’t be because of a gaslighted joke. It most likely will be by either another fraudulent dem-processed election or a failure in getting out the Republican vote.
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No one said that Trump would lose because of a joke.
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Will he also give back any awards obtained from the Russia hoax reporting?
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The most concerning item today is the NV court debacle; mail in ballots without a postmark are a total invitation for fraud.
Between that and the ridiculous VA situation reinstating the illegal voters means that SCOTUS needs to get into gear, we’re too close to the election for them to punt something so important
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Also, the Rnc is suing given the Sc of pa and provisional ballots. Hopefully, the sc gets involved in this and the Nv sc case. Congress sets the federsl election date not some justices. Hopefully, Beotchy and Bushie engage this time.
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“The most concerning item today is the NV court debacle; mail in ballots without a postmark are a total invitation for fraud.”
I agree
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Supposedly the Trump and Scott campaigns were concerned enough that they issued statements distancing themselves from it. They could have just ignored it completely.”
They are smarter than Albertus Idioticus?
Damm, that IS a low bar…
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If Trump loses it won’t be because of a gaslighted joke.”
Maybe not, but if the MSM wasn’t so partisan he would be 10 points ahead.
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The RNC has been much more proactive in jumping on law suits when there are questionable last minute rulings by the lower courts. Now if only the SC will get involved, in a timely manner, rectifying some of these erroneous rulings.
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“but if the MSM wasn’t so partisan he would be 10 points ahead.” – Jason
No truer statement has been made here at HHR. Its absolutely insane that a successful past President of the USA is in this tight of a race with a person who couldn’t even get above 140 on the LSAT, “worked” her way up the California system in a questionable manner, and has no policies, no instincts, was at a 26% approval rating….etc etc etc
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……how surprising, though, is it that the legacy media is nothing more than a dem operative? That’s why Bezos might be seeing the light at how fed up people are with the media bias, and are consequently turning to independent media or streaming their news.
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I believe both state supreme courts issued illegal rulings. However, not sure if the Rnc has sought appeal regarding the Nv decision. They need to act asap.
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In fact the major point of Tucker Carlson’s 9 minute presentation last night was how DJT has shone a light on the media’s bias, and people are finally waking up to it.
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I haven’t heard anything either, Tina, about what the RNC intends to do about that NV ruling.
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Translation….the MSM won today because of some bedwetting conservatives/Trump supporters/Republicans.
Here’s hint….just ignore it and move on.
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I will repost Vance’s response. Nothing else can be added:
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Update from Nevada….
GOP leads statewide by 31,830
Clark County has the D’s ahead by 6,130 which is disastrous for the D’s.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
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Here the video clip is embedded:
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GA early vote + mail 10/28
White 58.6%
Black 24.8%
Other 16.5%
GA early vote + mail total
White 59.3%
Black 26.0%
Other 14.6%
2020 GA total early + mail
White 56.5%
Black 27.7%
Other 15.8%
Daily early raw vote is still on the downward trend vs the previous same day of week. White vote is down a little vs the daily weekday tallies last week, with others making up the difference. The other increase is with Hispanics and Asians. Current White-Black gap is 33.3% vs 28.8% in 2020.
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Despite the bedwetting by some here, The Hill has now just bumped up Trump a point to 54%-46%
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
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I guess the embedded video didn’t work. Anyway just click on the link and view it.
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Tina,
It worked both times
Cheers.
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Going back the World Series it looks like a Freddie Freeman show….three homers in three games and the Dodgers looks to win game 3. The Yankees look lost with the the Dodger pitching. Where is Judge, Soto and the rest?
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“Despite the bedwetting by some here…”
-It is hilarious to watch, the closer we get to Election Day.
Chill the F out.
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Tina, Vance’s response was perfect and well said. And…by ending it saying he didn’t take the bait on the George Lopez joke, because it was…a joke. Just chill everyone, was perfect. I wish Trump had said it the same way.
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John, Yankees have the bases loaded with 2 out at the bottom of the 6th. A HR could tie up the score.
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JG – The Yankees are being what they are…pathetic, satanistic, pansy, (submit whatever insult you want) looooooooosers.
It is almost worth the Mets losing to the Dodgers to see the Yankees get powned and demoralized in such a way. Then…in the offseason, the Mets sign away Soto. Oh, the sweet taste of it all…..
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tragedy averted Jan
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Ah, dodgers got out of the jam…..
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Whew Vic!
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You’re not a Yankees fan, are you Vic! LOL
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Vic, as indicated, I don’t believe he was even asked about it today. And he did 2 events. He did comment about the Hitler remarks. I linked the responsess. From what I can tell.
POLICY discussion by quemala pisses more than 50% of voters off
Trump is Hitler pisses off 50% of voters.
Its choose your poison.
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Nick Bosa’s hat is probably getting more attention than the bad joke.
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Jan…um that would be a negatory ghost rider
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I don’t know who the “bedwetters” are.
Tina just said that the Rs had a bad polling day and the speaker should have been vetted.
Scooter rightly pointed out the MSM was going to have a field day, which they did.
Vic merely pointed out what the MSM was trying to do.
I pointed out that the news cycle is very fast and this rally would be old news by tomorrow.
People accusing other of bedwetting need to take their heads out of the sand (or their asses) and join the real world. Things are actually happening outside the cult world.
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It has been addressed by the trump campaign. It’s a dead issue now. I don’t think the Hitler remarks/supporters are Hitler is a winning campaign message. Trump,just needs to continue what he has been doing since the debate with quemala.
illegal immigration, inflation, economy, and end stupid wars. He says he can fix what quemala has broken.
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To his credit, trump has been focused on his message and not deviating too much from it.
And yes, the rally went from Hitler to Muh comedian. So, the attack is disjointed. By the Ds and limp at best
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The beds had to be changed about 3x.
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He also added a tax credit for caregivers, on top of no tax on social security; overtime; and tips.
I would like for him to include ending the salt limitations. He mentioned that at the Catholic event and ending inheritance and capital gains.
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Trump and Vance have been laser-focused. Don’t amplify anything from the MSM.
Of course, the same guy who in 2016 said Trump was an “isolationist” and says the same about Vance as his excuse to stay at home in his corner, I should not be surprised. Typical behavior from him.
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Ending estate taxes and eliminating capital gains are my ideas. (I don’t think trump mentioned doing that)
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And, none of those wetting their beds today at HHR mentioned Nick Bosa and NBC editing/deleting his MAGA hat moment.
Get with it. Fight Fight Fight!
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You definitely wouldn’t want this the Sunday before the election and have the last day news cycle devoted to it.
As I stated above, this is now old new and the MSM will not be able to sustain “Puerto Rican” racism as the main story beyond tonight.
Of course, the Dems will probably have a new meme next Sunday.
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Also, Va just petitioned the sc about the doj preventing the removal of non citizens on the voting rolls.
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https://twitchy.com/dougp/2024/10/28/metaphor-alert-heres-what-happened-when-janet-yellen-was-asked-about-the-status-of-the-dollar-n2402914
-Where is MD? I thought this was his pet issue? What a wuss he turned out to be!
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Of course, the same guy who in 2016 said Trump was an “isolationist”
He still is and I am still saying it.
GFY.
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Ralston’s latest update is that the R’s are on fire, but if four things happen they can turn it around: More R’s vote D than D’s vote R, Indys are D+, remaining turnout skews more D in the remaining early vote, and remaining turnout skews younger and less White. I guess he has to give his readers the copium they crave.
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They also did not mention the Hispanic family that tried to attend the 49er game, but were refused admission because of the Maga hats. They were told that they had to throw them away in order to be admitted to the game.
I believe Greg price had the video.
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“Of course, the Dems will probably have a new meme next Sunday.”
-Exactly, which is why you should always be on the offensive. They will continue to throw everything and anything against the wall to see if it sticks.
The campaign gave their statement. That’s the end of it.
Move on, and attack.
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“He still is and I am still saying it.”
-Yes, when you are wrong your usual response is to keep digging.
I wouldn’t expect anything else, from you.
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There is no evidence in the poles that Nv indies will break for Quemala. The poles suggest otherwise. I think at best it was plus 1 for quemala and at worst for her, +10 for trump. Most were like 2 to 5 points for trump.
Washoe county appears to be blunting Clark county or offsetting to a degree, which leaves the rurals going wild, assuming I got what he is trying to say and others.
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https://richardpollock.substack.com/p/has-j-edgar-hoovers-spy-program-been?r=1v5u0a&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true
-Bitterlaw and jason to approve of this in 3…..2…….1……
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Capital gains won’t be eliminated, that is not going to happen. Still, it is possible it could be reduced for some types of investments.
The estate tax is an abomination, you pay taxes your whole life and then you are taxed on the wealth that already paid taxes when you die?
The problem is that for socialists, taxing inheritances is like the Holy Grail.
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Exactly, which is why you should always be on the offensive.”
Which is what I suggested, the MSM narrative had to be countered.
As I pointed out above, Trump is very good at that.
He doesn’t let the MSM define him.
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There is no evidence in the poles that Nv indies will break for Quemala”
Yes and no.
In 2020 and 2022 the Dems did win Indies, by around 6 pts.
Seems like that won’t be enough this time around, but no guarantees.
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Of course allowing for the ds to game the system is what nv sc did.
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Michael Whatley
@ChairmanWhatley
A supporter of President Trump’s was arrested today for encouraging people to stay in the early voting line and cast their ballots freely in Pennsylvania. This follows reports from across the commonwealth that voters are being turned away in conservative areas. This is voter suppression from the left. Do not let them turn you away.
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Bitterlaw and jason to approve of this in 3…..2…….1……”
Zzzz….
I certainly support the Patriot Act and I certainly don’t believe US citizens should be exempt from surveillance for anti-terror activities.
But to say I support spying on people for their political beliefs is just the usual BS by Chuck Schumer’s little bitch.
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I do not believe Dems won NV Indys in any significant way in 2020. The Final NV vote by party registration was D+2.89. Biden won by 2.39%
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This follows reports from across the commonwealth that voters are being turned away in conservative areas.”
Zzzzz….
Smells like bullsh-t.
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I do not believe Dems won NV Indys in any significant way in 2020.”
Ralston says it was 6 points.
We can talk about the makeup of the electorate and the Dems probably doing well with indies (remember Biden won them by 6 in 2020, according to exit polls),
But I have no idea if that is really true, maybe it isn’t.
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If D+6 is true (which I am skeptical), then it has to be that NV D’s are significantly more likely to vote R than the reverse. Which means the NV early vote is really bad for the Dems.
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No, not D+6
The exit polls said Indies were D+6 .
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Hitler being told of the Trump rally…..
https://x.com/NiohBerg/status/1851089367210569851?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1851093090255139090%7Ctwgr%5Ecc682fe3fe101e4d63fbe46a08715291a6be6296%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F680683%2F
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9th inning. Score is still 4-0 dodgers. Lots of empty seats at yankee stadium.
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Yes, Indys are said to have been D+6. The final NV vote breakdown by party in 2020 was 38.05D/35.22R/26.73Other. I am going to use the Other pool as a proxy for Indys for the math.
If Indys(others) voted D+6, that is a margin of D+1.6 (6% of 26.7%) in total votes. Since there were almost 3% more D registered voters than R registered voters, and Biden won by 2.4%, then a net of 2.2% of D’s had to vote R. That works out to 2.2/38.0 or 5.8% of Dem registered voters. And that is assuming no R’s crossed over to vote D.
This means a combination of two things had to have happened that netted R votes: the Other voters were more R than D, and/or D’s crossed over more than R’s.
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Great, one pitch away from closing the deal and Verdugo nails a two run shot; 4-2
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Ok, down now. Yankees are going to need some 2004 Red Sox juju to come back from 0-3.
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Wow, NV vote totals through today show a huge R surge.
R’s have a 40,098 vote margin, R+5.7%
Clark is only D+2,817
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Hundreds of ballots lost in drop box fires in Washington, Oregon…
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Musk needs to stop giving away a million $$ a day in his lottery drawing. It is increasing the number of people who can say they are better off now than they were 4 years ago.
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The Dodgers’ Kopech didn’t panic. He got the final out. Congrats to the LA Dodgers.
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I am betting money that it will be VERY soon that Kamala and the MSM will be saying Trump support3rs are setting ballot drop boxes on fire in WA and OR.
But it also could be the west coast anarchists who assaulted and tried to burn down the federal court house out there in Oregon a year or so ago.
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One thing to consider, and then I’ll say nothing more about the PR joke; FL has the largest Puerto Rican population in the country. Yet Rs still crushed early voting there. Unless you see Orange and Osceola counties going from light/medium Blue over to cobalt, there is not some major groundswell of Hispanic shift. One thing I learned growing up in a Hispanic family, we don’t really believe in solidarity, hence why Cubans and Mexicans don’t much care about what is said of the other.
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I bring good news:
A bad Nh poke from Rasmussen for Quemala. No further details.
Emerson Michigan +1 for Trump. I believe this is the 3rd straight plus 1 result over the last two days.
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RAS says he has NH as a toss up.
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“Now there’s talk Jeff Bezos is demanding the editorial department hire conservative writers. We all know what that means… Everyone on the Post staff has spent a decade smearing Trump and his supporters as Nazis. No one’s going to work with Nazis, so the Post will have to hire a handful of fake Republicans like David French, which solves nothing.
Only a sociopath could fail to enjoy what’s happening to the Washington Post.”
https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2024/10/28/nolte-more-resignations-200k-subscription-cancelations-washington-post/
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RAS: “Can’t emphasize enough:
EVERY ONE of these state polls we put out has been whalloped by the oppressive 2020 recalled vote weighting.
Without it Trump does 2-4 points better.
And that’s also without making chancey new and low-prop voter assumptions.
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a new thread up within the hour
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Drop boxes are a bad idea period. Maybe this will make people distrust them.
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You can have a drop box at the county election office.
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Betting markets essentially unchanged. There was a small uptick for Kamala yesterday on Predictit (none on Polymarket), at one point she got within 9 of Trump but it is back to 15 now.
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If you wonder what the CNN Headlines are:
Harris closes out campaign with speech where Trump rallied Jan 6 supporter
Obama seizes on comedian’s offensive comments
Trump tries to shift from fascist label as fallout from rally grows
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CNN has become such a joke. Nobody watches it….and with good reason.
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What happened to 1939?
MSNBC:
Trump’s Sunday rally sounded a whole lot like the one hosted by white supremacist in 1968
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new thread
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