According to Quantus Insights poll taken 10/22-10/24; 725 LV
 | VIRGINIA |
| Trump | 48 |
| Harris | 49 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
 | GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
Trump Job Approval
| Pollsters wrong in 2024: | 42.0 / 55.1 | -13.0 |
| Pollsters right in 2024: | 46.2 / 51.0 | -4.8 |
| GOP | DEM |
| Democrats +3 | 216 | 219 |
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
138 responses to “Margin of Error Tossup in Virginia”
First
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YEAH BABYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quantum pollster: “Most common simulation result I get is Trump popular vote & 312 EVs.”
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Powerful ad
I hope they have the money to run it everywhere
ttps://nypost.com/2024/10/25/us-news/holocaust-survivor-denounces-kamala-harris-for-boosting-trump-hitler-comparisons-says-ex-prez-is-a-mensch/
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https://nypost.com/2024/10/25/us-news/holocaust-survivor-denounces-kamala-harris-for-boosting-trump-hitler-comparisons-says-ex-prez-is-a-mensch/
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Someone gave the A-hole a bone…..
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By the way, I was one of the 725 likely voters in this poll, called on 10/22, their first day of polling. I tried like anything to lie and say I identified as Democrat, but voting for Trump. But I just couldn’t do it. Had I done so, it would have help the party ID weighting a tiny bit.
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The VA poll reminds of the Youngkin race back in 2021; polls didn’t shift Red until the last ten days or so.
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Sometimes I like to take what’s going on today, and think about how I viewed things 25 years ago.
So if in 1999, I was told that in the year 2024, one of these items would be reality….
a) National legalization of prostitution.
b) Its legal for a kindergartner teacher to trick a 5 year old boy into thinking he can be made into a girl and then be pressured into surgery where his privates are lopped off, permanently sterilizing him and giving him a lifetime of medical complications and on path toward suicide.
c) National legalization of partial indecent exposure.
d) National ban on homeschooling.
———
I would have never picked option B.
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Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Sleepy Joe Biden and Comrade Kamala Harris ridiculously accuse me of wanting to “weaponize” the Justice Department, when they have done all of the weaponizing. Now, their truly Weaponized Department of “Injustice,” and a Judge (appointed by Joe), have ORDERED the Great Commonwealth of Virginia to PUT NON-CITIZEN VOTERS BACK ON THE ROLLS. This is a totally unacceptable travesty, and Governor Youngkin is absolutely right to appeal this ILLEGAL ORDER, and the U.S. Supreme Court will hopefully fix it! Only U.S. Citizens should be allowed to vote. Keep fighting, Glenn – AND REPUBLICANS IN VIRGINIA, KEEP VOTING EARLY! I will be calling in to Glenn’s Rally with Lara Trump tomorrow morning to talk about this crazy Ruling, and announce my final stop in Virginia before Election Day. TUNE IN!
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Generic ballot poll:
Republicans 48, Democrats 45
Pollster?
Rasmussen? No.
OnMessage? No.
Trafalgar? No.
CNN? Yes.
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As to Virginia, Harris is as unlikable as McAuliffe. Let’s hope Trump is as likable as Youngkin.
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Harry, agreed on the first part of that. The second part is the problem. There are a lot of RFK jr types here, and had he not endorsed it would not be this close.
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GOP closing in on a ten point early vote lead in Florida.
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Biden in AZ pandering to Native Americans.
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Screaming incoherently.
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FEMA ORDER….EVACUATION ALERT!
FEMA has just ordered all residents below Harris Dam to evacuate immediately.
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There are several democracy institute poles
trump plus 4 nevada, plus 4 in Georgia, and plus 5 in ga.
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democracy institute national plus 3
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(trump) leads in that national pole.
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Baris says Quemala is playing defense.
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I am hearing now that the race has not turned into Harris vs Trump but Harris (subbing in for Biden) vs Trump’s first term.
I’m thinking she would have been way better off if Biden had resigned. She would have had her own record and could have answered the “when did you know questions” better.
Glad he didn’t resign. I don’t think he’d be capable of doing it anyway.
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Yikes
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The Holocaust survivor ad should be played in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh media markets
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Trump will be holding a rally at State College (Penn State) in Pennslyvania on Saturday at the Bryce Jordan Center (15,000).
It will be the first presidential rally at State College in 16 years going back to Obama in 2008 and is ‘the largest arena between Pittsburg and Philadelphia’.
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Florida early vote now with a 10 point lead for the GOP ballot returns.
Funny how the chief antagonist for Eric Daugherty [sic] in Florida was boasting earlier this week that by the end of the week Dem ballots would catch up and take the lead. Nothing but a Baghdad Bob performance.
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The writers and readers at the Daily Kos are going batsh.t crazy over the decisions by both the WaPo and LA Times on not endorsing Harris. It’s their #1 story and their belief that both rags have become ‘right wing nut jobs’.
LMAO.
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Follow up on the WaPo non-endorsement…there are reports that of over 3,000 comments to the Post and dozens of readers have cancelled their subscriptions.
God, I love it when liberals fight other liberals.
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lmao. I have to go see. I’ll take some penicillin first
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The theory though is this: What if the WaPo is very scared of Trump but not at all concerned if MVP Harris wins because they know she will not persecute them. So they are taking the cowardly way out!
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lol. They truly are detached from reality.
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Their argument for Pravda..
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/24/2279113/-There-Must-Come-a-Reckoning-for-Our-Media?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
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I used to be a troll a DKos like 10 years ago. For several years I played the role of “Obama is a corporate tool” and Hillary is “too far right for me”. In a way, I got the same arguments there that I do here at the moment…I should forget any problems with the candidates and vote for the “cause”.
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Trump now given an astounding 40% chance of winning the popular vote at Polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-popular-vote-winner-2024?tid=1729884705149
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Trump winning VA would be awesome.
Any plot to drag out the election results over days and create a narrative of a potential Harris win while they happen to find votes would become extremely difficult.
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JeffP, we have already reached the point where its obvious that Virginia will be close, and that alone will send shock waves. Polls close at 7:00 pm. By 7:45, there should be a huge Trump lead, like there was in 2016 when Hillary ended up winning by 5. But that lead kept being reviewed over and over in election night coverage as portending bad news for Hillary.
On election night, the numbers from Virginia will dominate the early coverage, and even if it disappoints in the end it will be shockingly close setting that narrative.
But yes, an upset ends the election by 9:00 p.m.
Plug Virginia red into your 270 map, and see all the many ways Trump can win.
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Trump -5 in Ras today tracker. Hope that’s just an outlier.
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”Hope that’s just an outlier.”
Well, six to ten consecutive polls in the last couple of days show varying Trump leads or a tie, so I’ll let you do the math…
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All the liberals cancelling their WAPO subscriptions on Twitter are hilarious.
Of course, 90% probably don’t have a subscription.
Yesterday, Jen Rubin praised a LAT editor for resigning because the LAT didn’t endorse.
Let’s hope she resigns too.
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Van Jones:
Yes she’s bad at town halls, and the word salads and evasions are bad.
She “passed the test” anyway.
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That panel of undecided black women who expressed strong misgivings about Kalama’s abilities was very telling. They want to feel safe, and she didn’t appear to them to be the candidate who could make them feel safe.
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Rich Baris The People’s Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
Harris is actually polling worse with women than Biden in the NYT vs. 2020. Trump gained 6 points among women and Harris fell 5 points. A net 11 point swing among women to Trump.
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@NolteNC
Please RT!
I canceled my Washington Post subscription and call on every Washington Post staffer to resign. If you believe in democracy, you must cancel your subscription and walk out!!
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these people are literally certifiably insane
”In two weeks, Americans will decide whether the United States shall continue as a representative democracy and the shining beacon on the hill of freedom and liberty, or will devolve into a corrupt autocratic state where political enemies are jailed or killed and the world’s greatest military will be deployed within our own borders to racially cleanse our nation of immigrants, both legal and otherwise. Those are stark choicess”
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I have to go on Twitter and say I am cancelling my subscription too.
Not only that, I am so angry I am going to vote for Trump.
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Kamala Harris – “He’s Hitler
Washington Post – “Yeah we’ve thought about it and we’re still not going to endorse you over Hitler. Sorry.”
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Those are stark choices”
I would agree.
But those aren’t the choices.
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The choice is between a rabid Marxist and a crony capitalist.
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I think Bezos and the composte know the election is over with. This is their white flag to Trump imo.
They reused to run with (but they were shopped) trump win a young child oct surprise. We all know this is completely made up as was the vagina lady in the high end shopping store.
The Atlantic article was downed within seconds and bimbette 3.0 should have come out in 2015. She is 9 years too late , is an Obama psychopath, and has the wrong year.
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Refused*
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they (liberals) also think the election is over…in a landslide for Kamala and a blue wave lmao
“The media is also ignoring its own reporting: The surge in young voter registrations, especially among young black and Latina voters; the number of registered Republicans who will vote for Harris in protest of what Trump has done to their party; the number of vets and those who respect our military who are disgusted with Trump’s disrespect, and to top all that, this will be the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision, and every other election so far since that horrific destruction of human rights in America has been a “surprise” to the media who’s polls woefully undercounted democratic support. This election is not going to be close. Harris/Walz are going to win in a landslide. The media will act surprised, as if no one could have seen it coming, except for all of us telling them its coming.
This isn’t just speculation; it’s supported by hard data. States like Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan—once considered swing states—are seeing unprecedented early voting numbers that favor democratic candidates by wide margins. While corporate media may choose to downplay this, independent analysts have pointed out that the enthusiasm for maintaining democracy is overwhelmingly strong. From massive grassroots organizing efforts to voter mobilization campaigns, Americans are recognizing the stakes, and it’s becoming clear that this election is less of a “toss-up” and more of a blue tsunami.
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If you open the MSNBC webpage you get this:
“Trump’s religious facade crumbled at his GA church rally”
“Trumo’s anti-immigration, anti-democracty rhetoric grows more demeaning”
Tim Walz has figured out how to handle Elon Musk
The billionaire owners of the LAT and WAPO capitulated to Trump
The Supreme Court failed to uphold Constitution by allowing Trump on our ballots
Trump campaign stunt backfires in devastating fashion
Trump alleged pro-Hitler comments take the spotlight as election day nears
Obama shreds Trump for trying to take credit for Obama’s accomplishments
Stephen A Smith shuts down Hannity’s desperate Trump defense
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and it’s becoming clear that this election is less of a “toss-up” and more of a blue tsunami.”
Damm, fire Baghdad Bob and hire this guy!
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Vic, where is a link to the above excerpt.
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If this was posted already, please disregard. I feel that it is important however.
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They’re not even within 100 miles of Baghdad. They are not in any place. They hold no place in Iraq. This is an illusion… they are trying to sell to the others an illusion.
I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly.
There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!
We made them drink poison last night and Saddam Hussein’s soldiers and his great forces gave the Americans a lesson which will not be forgotten by history. Truly.
Our initial assessment is that they will all die.
The Cruise missiles do not frighten anyone. We are catching them like fish in a river. I mean here that over the past two days, we managed to shoot down 196 missiles before they hit their target.
Mohammed Saeed al_Sharaf aka Baghdad Bob
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new record high for Trump at PredictIT – Trump 61, Harris 43
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jan
here. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/24/2279113/-There-Must-Come-a-Reckoning-for-Our-Media?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
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and what amazes me is somehow Baghdad bob is still alive.
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Ah, the daily kos! The content now makes sense. Thanks Vic for posting the source.
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Yes he lives in the uae.
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“If he was the VP nominee this race would be over by 7:30 PM.”
-Evidence?
Youngkin is the Chief Executive of VA, not a subordinate. Vance is perfect for the position of VP. He has been a great spokesperson for Trump, has been great under duress and in hostile territory.
2028 will see if Vance can grow into the top job, and/or there will be great candidates like Youngkin, DeSantis etc to fight it out.
And considering that you might find 1 statement made in Youngkins past which may make you stay home and sit in your corner, good that we didn’t rely on you!
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and what amazes me is somehow Baghdad bob is still alive.”
He got captured after the invasion but they found out he had no power, was just a pathetic propaganda tool so they let him go.
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So I guess all these early voting Republicans are there voting for Harris because they hate Trump. I guess they are at the Trump rallies cheering wildly because they hate him so much they want to trick him into thinking he is doing well.
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“If he was the VP nominee this race would be over by 7:30 PM.”
-Evidence?”
Very likely he would have nailed down VA for Trump, and that would pretty much be it for the election.
“Vance is perfect for the position of VP”
Evidence?
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Who is going to lecture the black women voting for trump?
Maybe Michael?
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Ralston thinks that the WashPost failure to endorse Harris is journalism dying in darkness!
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/cnn-panel-melts-down-when-kevin-oleary-reminds/
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Youngkin is a relentless campaigner and hard worker. VA would be red on election night by 8:50 p.m. had he been the veep.
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One explanation offered as to why ex chief of staff Kelly turned on Trump was given by Sean Spicer:
“Today on @megynkelly show, she asked @seanspicer why some in the Trump administration dislike him so much.
Especially people like Kelly.
Sean gave this example.
Re Afghanistan.
Trump had questions about it when he came into office.
The generals and the experts presented their papers and briefs
It wasn’t enough for Trump.
He brought in a round table of enlisted soldiers and asked them questions about their deployments, what they needed, etc.
He listened more to the regular soldiers on the ground than the ‘experts’
That is why they hate him.”
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Of course I am hoping VA is still going to be red, but its harder without Youngkin on the ticket.
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As long as the Cochlear Times doesn’t endorse Kamala, I’m good.
Most hearing impaired people support Trump. You can’t imagine what that cackle does to an amplified ear piece 🤮
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And considering that you might find 1 statement made in Youngkins past which may make you stay home and sit in your corner,”
Hmmm…. like “I don’t care what happens in Ukraine”?
Yeah, I wouldn’t vote for Youngkin if he said that.
But of course, he didn’t say that, Vance did.
Besides, while that statement exemplifies Vance’s stupid and self defeating isolationism and his dedication to Ron Paul’s foreign policy, rest assured it is not the only statement he ever made that I object to.
Now GFY and go reflect on your long list of conservative causes you sold out to support Trump’s protectionist and isolationist agenda.
It’s about as long as Liz Cheney’s list to support Kamala.
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DW
October 25, 2024 at 5:38 pm
Youngkin is a relentless campaigner and hard worker. VA would be red on election night by 8:50 p.m. had he been the veep.”
Sounds like “evidence” to me.
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Ralston thinks that the WashPost failure to endorse Harris is journalism dying in darkness!”
Really?
I believed it when he said he was non-partisan….
What a disappointment.
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Well, Shaw thinks democracy died in dementia. So, apparently, do a lot of Democrats.
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Trump- Salem, Va rally, 11/2, 4 pm est.
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Objection. Calls for speculation.
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Democratic group House Majority PAC is cancelling all of its Las Vegas reservations. This likely means the group will not air a single ad in the Las Vegas market in the 2024 cycle. They spent $11.1m in the market in the 2022 cycle.
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Janzam and Tina will be popping champagne corks tonight! I am sure they support the killing of journalists who report on the “war on Russia”.
“Victoria Roshchyna, a Ukrainian journalist held captive by Russia for more than a year, died while in Russian detention, Ukrainian officials confirmed Thursday.
Petro Yatsenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Prisoners of War Coordination Headquarters, told Ukrainian television that the circumstances surrounding Roshchyna’s death were still unclear.
Roshchyna, who would have turned 28 this month, was one of 20 Ukrainian journalists detained by Russia for their reporting since the start of Russia’s invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, according to RSF.
She was known for her features documenting daily life in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, went missing on Aug. 3, 2023, while traveling on assignment to the Russian-occupied town of Zaporizhzhia, according to the International Women’s Media Foundation. Her whereabouts were unknown for eight months until Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed her detention in April 2024.”
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I think it’s a perfect time for Elon Musk to buy the Washington Post. Could you imagine how many Libs heads would explode over that one?
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I thought Vance was a good VP choice from the time a “VP short list” was announced. Some here were horrified he was even considered let alone ultimately chosen as VP. However, his stamina has been unflagging, his campaign stops stellar, gleaning bigger crowds eager to hear his speeches. He also has easily articulated policy while professionally deflecting crude national media questions that relentlessly occur at the end of his speeches. He’s become a perfect foil for the rambling bluntness of Trump, supporting the top of the ticket and growing into a real asset by moving working class, rust belt states like MI, PA and storm ravaged areas in NC closer to voting for republicans than Dems. Any other choice, IMO, would not have been able to develop such a cordial fluidity with Trump, while cultivating a relatable relationship with the public.
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I thought i was just leading the witness.
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“rump, supporting the top of the ticket and” growing into a real asset by moving working class, rust belt states like MI, PA and storm ravaged areas in NC closer to voting for republicans than Dems.”
LOL
Talk about “facts not in evidence”.
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Of course no mention of the Billion Dollars the Harris campaign has raised this election.
Brenden Fischer: “Elon Musk put another $40 million into America PAC in the first half of October, for a total of $118.55M as of October 16. That’s a mind-boggling amount of money dumped into elections over a very short period of time.
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I thought Vance was a good VP choice from the time a “VP short list” was announced.”
Zzzzz….
If Trump had picked the ghost of John Wayne Gacy you would have claimed it was the best pick in the History of the Universe.
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Bill Gates Donates $50 Million to Support Kamala Harris’ Presidential Campaign: ‘This Election Is Different’
Is this “astronomical”?
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Lol
Todd Starnes: “President Biden eulogized former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords today. It was very moving, touching. There’s just one problem. Giffords is still alive.
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Any other choice, IMO, would not have been able to develop such a cordial fluidity with Trump, while cultivating a relatable relationship with the public.”
Putin should hire Janzam.
She is the Baghdad Bob of HHR.
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think it’s a perfect time for Elon Musk to buy the Washington Post. Could you imagine how many Libs heads would explode over that one?”
I think some of these non-Marxist billionaires should invest in the media.
It is almost criminal that 95% of the MSM is in the hands of far leftists.
They should buy a major network and some newspapers and either UPI or AP.
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Jason continues to be HHR’s know-it-all, keeping dissenting opinions, as well as participating posters, at a minimum.
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The problem of course, is that most lose money.
The leftists are willing to “invest” in the cause but true capitalists are not crazy to want to incur that kind of loss.
The LAT is supposedly losing $40 million a year.
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@NolteNC
All this WaPo drama is not only glorious, it will consume the narcissistic political media through the weekend and drown out two days VITAL to Kamala trying to close the deal. This freezes the race through Monday at least, which is exactly what Trump wants.
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jason continues to be HHR’s know-it-all,”
You are too kind.
I admit I know a lot more than you do, but it doesn’t rise to the level of “all”.
In fact, it is an awfully low bar.
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‘keeping dissenting opinions, as well as participating posters, at a minimum.”
Truly a legend.
Yet Bitter still refers to me as a second tier A-hole.
Cruel.
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Maybe this was already mentioned but wtf is quemala doing in Texas with beyondadunce?
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“cordial fluidity”
I hope Baghdad Bob doesn’t see that.
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He will so jealous he might decide on a comeback.
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So, she basically was off Wednesday and Thursday practicing for her interviews.
Now, Friday, in Texas, which is another wasted day.
And still butt hurt by the Compost.
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Not every player in the baseball Hall of Fame was inducted in the first class. But they are still in.
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What tier A-hole am I?
I don’t want to be underneath any other A-hole.
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Biden says every time Jill, Ed.D., visits Indian Country, he’s “worried she’s not coming home”
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How about A-hole in waiting?
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Not every player in the baseball Hall of Fame was inducted in the first class.”
Bitter is lacking in “cordial fluidity”.
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“Now GFY and go reflect on your long list of conservative causes you sold out to support Trump’s protectionist and isolationist agenda.”
-Once again, the results from Trump’s first term were beneficial to the United States, other than the fact that he should have vetoed more spending……but then again, a case could be made to say the same about Reagan.
Make the list, corner boy. Make sure you think about how other Presidents acted before you burp it out.
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A-hole in waiting ????
You lying bastard……..an A-hole in waiting doesn’t get full privileges. We made a deal. That’s the only reason I came back.
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Btw, “cordial fluidity” wasn’t an accident.
The reason Trump picked Vance is exactly because he wanted a “yes man” that would never challenge him, no other reason.
He didn’t care that Vance brought nothing to the table.
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Make the list,”
Everyone here knows the list. There is not one conservative principle you haven’t sold out in your march to become Chuck Schumer’s little bitch and Trump’s doormat.
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Oh, I forgot.
Putin’s water boy too.
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Any Yankees fans here?
GFY!
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Breaking
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/mail-in-voting-mississippi-5th-circuit/index.html
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The Israeli Attack on Iran has begun
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And now Israel has starting to bomb Iran. Stay tuned…..
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Well done gop leaders.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-breaks-silence-after-gop-leaders-say-anti-trump-rhetoric-risks-inviting-another-assassination-attempt
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welcome to WWIII. Nice job Biden-Harris
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Biden funded Iran and WWIII is the result
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Vance won’t be in the Top 10 of my 2028 primary choices.
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Ummmm The most recent tier.
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Scooter – You a full a…I mean A-hole
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If forced to choose, I hope the Yankees win the WS.
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NT at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Who wants it?
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I really like trumps ads.. well done.
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Gfy part 6.
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InteractivePolls
@IAPolls2022
.
@OnMessageInc
/
@SenOppFund
(R) SENATE Ohio –
Moreno 49-47% Wisconsin –
Hovde 49-48% Nevada –
Tie 48-48% —— PRESIDENT Ohio –
Trump 52-44% Wisconsin –
Trump 48-47% Nevada –
Trump 50-47% —— #238 (1.1/3.0) | 10/19-22 | 1,800 LV
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Using clips of a candidate’s positions is a devastating way to expose their true convictions and real “forward looking” agenda.
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Trump just did a 3 hour podcast with Joe Rogan.
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Michael Whatley
MASSIVE ELECTION INTEGRITY VICTORY: The 5th Circuit has just ruled that ballots must be received BY ELECTION DAY to be counted — not days after — following an RNC lawsuit. This is a seismic win for fair, accurate, secure, and transparent elections.”
Too bad it doesn’t cover Nevada.
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Trump is a traitor and fascist. FUCK YOU ALL WHO SUPPORT THIS PIECE OF OF FUCKING SHIT.
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hear so many Republicans (and Democrats of course) who are certain that really bad stuff will happen if Trump wins. Can some Republicans help my fear and anxiety. So I don’t have to kill myself if Trump wins.
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Trump will likely win and a lot of suicides will result.
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Another groping accusation….this one will be hard to gloss over
https://x.com/stevenvoiceover/status/1849577139986628937
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The Rogan pod cast is probably why Trump will be late, by as much as 2 hours, to the Traverse, MI rally.
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Paul flunked rehab?
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A federal judge has turned away allegations that billionaire Elon Musk violated the law when he started giving $1 million away to registered voters.
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That made me laugh. Thank you.
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Paul. you will be ok. First of all, please make sure you take your meds, its important.
Second. Trump didn’t round you up and do anything bad to you the frist, time, and wont a second time. Plus, despite being a rabid leftie, you have HHR protection services watching out for you from the MAGA crowd 😉
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Matt Mackowiak:
EXCLUSIVE: I can reveal Harris was in advanced talks w/ Rogan on joining the podcast this morning, spending TH night in ATX, taping today & then going to HOU. Advance was preparing & local law enforcement was notified.
Trump agreed to no limits on Rogan podcast. Harris wouldn’t.
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