I don’t have time to make them look pretty, so…
CNBC national poll, Trump +2
WSJ national poll, Trump +3
TIPP national poll, Harris +3
PA: Franklin & Marshall
Trump 50, Harris 49
PA: Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
WI: Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
NC: Emerson
Trump 50, Harris 48
NC: Marist
Trump 50, Harris 48
AZ: Marist
Trump 50, Harris 49
GA: Marist
Trump 49, Harris 49
SD: The Hill/Emerson
Trump 62, Harris 35
And the ones that caught my eye:
PA SENATE: Franklin & Marshall
Casey 49, McCormick 48
PA SENATE: The Hill/Emerson
Casey 47, McCormick 46
WI SENATE: The Hill/Emerson
Baldwin 48, Hovde 48
The Hedgehog Report - Phoenix Edition 
110 responses to “Lotsa polls this morning”
And we have had back to back October surprises
suckers and losers 2.0 (Atlantic article involving the deceased Hispanic soldier/family. The family wrecked the atlantic story..
Kelly’s hoax story.
Muh bimbo 3.0 (obama plant and friend of Epstein who somehow went from Epstein’s house in 1993 to trumps place. (Epstein didn’t live in the house that Muh bimbo claimed, until 1996.
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those are all pointing one direction.
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and the media, of course, is calling Kelly a Republican when he’s actually a Dem
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The October surprises have fizzled. They were likely thrown out there all at once to muzzle this:
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They are Harry, and so we have the trifecta telling us how things are going:
1 The behavior of the two campaigns
2 The tentative results of early voting showing greater GOP enthusiasm and turnout
3 The polling data
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Her story appears believable and is corroborated by witnesses.
More than Blassie fordj whatever, or the vagina lady.
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Didn’t Jan tell us that the divorce file of Kari Lake’s opponent were unsealed last week? I guess it was not a game changer.
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Tina, I am not wanting Trump or any surrogates to go after Harris’ husband. Its a needless distraction and he is not running for office, SHE is, and there is plenty of her own problems that disqualify her from being POTUS. Emhoff might have been a dirtbag, he might have behaved criminally, but its not going to impact this race at all.
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Dw, I agree.
This is trumps closing message. He has largely ignored the October surprises and focused on illegals/open borders, inflation, and the economy. That is why he is leading.
I also am pleasantly surprised that on inflation, he has specifically mentioned food inflation/vehicle prices/rent. (He cited 28 percent rise in food prices more specifically). Inflation does not discriminate between the races/genders. Everyone feels if, including the wine chicks.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-campaigns-closing-message-voters-harris-broke-it-trump-fix-it
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the generic ballot from CNBC:
CNBC
Democrats 44, Republicans 48
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icLDaugh
JUST IN: In NEVADA early voting, Kamala Harris would STILL LOSE THE STATE even if she leads independents by 10 points. This is apocalyptically bad for Democrats.
·
19.2K Views
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“Kamala Harris participated in a one-person debate last night, & she lost.” – David Urban
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We heard this in 2022. The Clark Co. firewall was “gone”. But “late” mail in ballots kept coming in until like 5 days after election Cortez-Masto finally took the lead and won by 10k votes.
With a R governor, it might be harder to blatantly cheat, but the SOS is a Democrat (won by 23k votes-whereas the American Independent Party and the Libertarians got 25k combined).
With ballot harvesting legal in NV and the Dems knowing in advance how many votes they need to win, there will be a lot of pressure to dig up some union and nursing home votes in the next 10 days.
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Stfu
Mitch McConnell:
“I’m still a Traditional Republican… there are some on my side now who don’t sound that way. I’m going to be arguing more with them probably than the Democrats.”
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I certainly hope he doesn’t go along with self defeating isolationism and asinine tariffs and trade wars.
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Baris: The leading contender for our Biggest Cop-Out, Chicken Shit Final Polling Award for 2024.
FINAL RMG POLLS
National: Harris +1
MI: EVEN
PA: EVEN
NV: EVEN
WI: Trump +1
GA: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +4
NC: Trump +4
FL: Trump +5
TX: Trump +7
OH: Trump +11
MT: Trump +21
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Mark Halperin said on Megan Kelly show yesterday that he thinks Trump’s gonna have a rally in Virginia, Minnesota, and New Mexico, before Election Day.
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Harris needs D+17 from Indys to make up the gap. Ralston is sugar coating it
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Is Meg Scott Rasmussen ?
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Rmg*
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yes
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thanks.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/10/24/nolte-ex-girlfriend-comes-forward-to-accuse-doug-emhoff-of-domestic-violence/
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Hillsborough has flipped red in Florida. Miami-Dade coming next.
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Paul Harvey, a broadcaster my dad listened to had a segment called “The rest of the story….” which oftentimes clarified all the details behind a story. The Times refusal to endorse could well have become an item for such an unfinished story.
Dr. Pat Soon-Shiong
@DrPatSoonShiong
So many comments about the @latimes Editorial Board not providing a Presidential endorsement this year. Let me clarify how this decision came about. The Editorial Board was provided the opportunity to draft a factual analysis of all the POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE policies by EACH candidate during their tenures at the White House, and how these policies affected the nation. In addition, the Board was asked to provide their understanding of the policies and plans enunciated by the candidates during this campaign and its potential effect on the nation in the next four years. In this way, with this clear and non-partisan information side-by-side, our readers could decide who would be worthy of being President for the next four years. Instead of adopting this path as suggested, the Editorial Board chose to remain silent and I accepted their decision.
IOW, the Times Editorial Board rejected an informed consent type of discussion with their readers, because, obviously, there was nothing positive to be listed as to Kamala’s role in participating in positive governance.
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This guy is doing his Baghdad Bob impersonation in Florida:
Christopher Bouzy (spoutible.com/cbouzy)
@cbouzy·
4h
Replying to @cbouzy
By the end of next week, Democrats will close the in-person gap and regain the early vote lead.
Speaking of Baghdad Bob, he is still alive, 84 years old.
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John Kelly’s comments about Trump were always out there since 2022 in his book The Divider: Trump in the White House. It was The NY Times that new about it, dug it up, dug up John Kelly and then interviewed him as an October surprise.
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GOP lead in Florida just keeps growing, 230,000 ballot advantage and growing.
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Hope springs eternal among the moonbats…
“Trump killed a big % of his base w covid. Many staying home now bc elections are rigged”
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Sorry to be the bearer of bad news:
The Guardian is endorsing Harris.
Now if Lord Asshat follows that lead it is probably over.
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Ralston delivers the message:
There is no good news in these numbers for Dems, who are basing their hopes on a deluge of mail ballots coming in during the final days and perhaps the day or two after the election (They can be counted for four days after Nov. 5.) and a very favorable split among indies in urban Nevada.
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There you have it…”deluge of mail ballots during the final days and a day or two or four after the election“
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Lord Arsehat, brokered convention, and Code Red were classics at the original HHR
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Yeah, he thinks Kamala is giving great answers..
https://x.com/nickaramaOG/status/1849425389061308562/photo/1
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If Amoral Scumbag was here I am sure he would be saying there is still time to dump Trump and put in a Romney-Haley ticketl
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It should be illegal to accept ballots not received by election day. Counting them after election day is ok, but in NV they will accept ballots received up to 4 days AFTER the election.
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Even in PA, ballots not received by 8PM election day are not (supposedly) counted.
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Robbie is dead. He has to be. The final test was the day the kangaroo court in NY with its commie judge guiding to the jury to guilty on all counts–if that didn’t draw him out, nothing ever would. That was the day we knew he had passed away.
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Florida update, the gap is now EIGHT (8) points!
Republican 1,299,553 43.91%
Democrat 1,061,899 35.88%
No Party Affiliation 536,908 18.14%
Other 61,045 2.06%
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DW,
Speaking of passing away, do we know what happened to lisab?
I missed her last few days of posts at the other site.
(Our G-650 is out of it’s annual heavy maintenance check and is available to you this weekend.)
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DW,
Mrs Marv and I contributed to our early vote lead on Monday.
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So Trump is at 268 if he can flip AZ, GA, and NV and assuming he wins one district in ME and loses one in NE.
So he needs one of WI, PA or MI.
If he loses all three he need one of the following: NH, VA, or NM.
Trump should try to win the NE-02 district as insurance. Spend $10 million there and put Elon Musk in charge of the project.
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Speaking of passing away, do we know what happened to lisab?”
Possibilities
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Robbie is dead. He has to be.”
Unlikely.
He is young and healthy enough to be a pilot.
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What about SDC. He also made the lifeboat.
And Chicon?
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Lisab could have died of COVID, it was still a thing when she disappeared.
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Thanks Marv, glad its back. Had to send a special correspondent by auto this week instead of the jet.
Speaking of which, the same correspondent drove north/south the entire length of Delaware, and there were Trump signs plastered everywhere. Too bad there is not enough of them in Wilmington to make a difference in the outcome.
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I don’t know what to make of, or how to react to early voting results.
they are obviously lagging behind 2020 numbers but could it be that in 2020 early voting. Mail in voting was pushed so hard because of COVID that they inflated the totals. I mean look at the overall total of votes who h blew away 2016 and even 2008.
maybe Dems are waiting this year or going to vote on election day
I guess we will know in two weeks
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DW, DE should revert to the norm this cycle, so about a ten to twelve point win without Joe on the ballot. With the changes in Kent and Sussex counties, I can see the state moving rightward over the next decade to becoe purple again.
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LOL
“2015: Trump is Hitler! 2016: Trump is Hitler! 2017: Trump is Hitler! 2018: Trump is Hitler! 2019: Trump is Hitler! 2020: Trump is Hitler! 2021: Trump is Hitler! 2022: Trump is Hitler! 2023: Trump is Hitler! 2024: October surprise — Trump is Hitler!
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I don’t know. I don’t care. She turned vicious.
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You can’t have it both ways.
You can’t urge Rs to vote early and by mail and then say “hey, the gap has decreased, hallelujah”
The ED gap is also going to decrease.
The question is will all the Dems no longer voting by mail or EV really show up at the polls on ED? THAT is a legitimate question.
You can bet that Rs WILL show up, because we know that from experience.
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Robbie
RIP
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Zzzzzz….
lisab was always “vicious”.
Once she insulted me for 3 days for calling The Netherlands “Holland”.
Bitter never cared she was “vicious” until she turned on him.
She still gets my eternal admiration for goading Bitter into attending the meeting and actually taking a stand against wokeness.
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Amoral Scumbag didn’t croak.
If Kamala wins, he will be here election night. Bet on it.
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The self loathing Jew aka Biden Troll will be here too.
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Naw, he’s dead. If he wasn’t we would have heard nonstop from him when Kamala hit her post debate high.
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exactly jason. Which is why my focus has been on the stat regarding low propensity voters, but I am not sure how that data is gathered or if its accurate.
But if one party is doing a better job of getting those who have voted in 0 out of the last 4 elections, and banking them early, that does matter.
How will indies vote?
How many will each party lose to the other side despite the party reg ID?
Will the apparently uninterested now show up on ED?
I have been watching VA_03 carefully, as it is essentially an urban district with 40% population that is black. Very uninterested in early voting, dead last among VA’s 11 districts.
Probably a truck will show up soon with the free cigarettes, free sandwiches, and free booze and the busses are standing by to drag them to the polls on election day.
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Zzzzz. She told me about a meeting I did not know about. Still waiting for ANY public statement against wokeness by Mr. Irrelevant. I will accept video or letters/Op-Ed article to any newspaper.
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Those New Hampshire numbers are insane.
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What’s fascinating about watching the FL early vote is the GOP’s gains just keep piling on with no letup. Normally with early voting there might be some back and forth if one expects the state to be remotely competitive. And some strong GOP counties haven’t even opened up in person voting yet. Its a bloodbath for Dems in Florida. GOP just crested over 44% of the total votes cast….non-affiliated at 18% and other 2%.
Dems in FL only 35.75% of the early vote.
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Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update
🔴 Trump: 53.7%
🔵 Harris: 46%
“We’ve been starting to see more national polls showing Kamala Harris behind — certainly not a good sign for her given her likely Electoral College disadvantage.”
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Still waiting for ANY public statement against wokeness by Mr. Irrelevant.”
Zzzzz…..
I am famous in Bittersville for my anti-woke statements.
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Probably a truck will show up soon with the free cigarettes, free sandwiches, and free booze”
Where?
I can drive to VA in 40 minutes.
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Norfolk, Portsmouth, Hampton, and Newport News.
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So no proof. Got it.
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Lisab was a teachers’ union rep who pushed allof the union’s agenda. No loss in her disappearance.
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Look what you can do when you juice the national turnout to D+5 in re-weighting the raw data collected:
NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 51.6% (+6.6)
🔴 Trump: 45%
Sample: D+6
Big Village | 10/18-23 | N=1,539LV
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Here is another new one:
NATIONAL poll
🔵 Harris: 42%
🔴 Trump: 56% (+14)
Sample: R+8
The Bullcrab Group | 10/120-23 | N=1,800 LV
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I do hope RCP doesn’t put that obviously skeeed rescue poll in the average
she’s not winning the election by 7%. Jeez
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CNN wins “most irrelevant headline”
Their main headline at their website is….drum roll….
“House GOP committee that oversees elections hired two former Trump officials involved in 2020 fake elector scheme”
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Lisab was a teachers’ union rep who pushed allof the union’s agenda. No loss in her disappearance”
She was a Utopic Socialist, but over the years she became disenchanted with the teacher’s union and their draconian policies and actually with Dems in general and by the time she disappeared was quite ant-woke..
I don’t see her voting for Kamala.
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Isn’t it funny how backlogs only seem to ever benefit one side?
Ralston: Reliable sources confirm thousands of mail ballots in Washoe County (Reno) were processed overnight. There had been a substantial backlog. This will almost surely help Dems, not sure yet how much. Dems have a solid mail lead there now — 14K to 10K. Numbers when I have them.
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I know you like anybody who doesn’t like me. She remained a union rep and never resigned while at HHR so I think she fooled you. I think she said voted for Jill Stein in 2016 or 2020. I don’t care if she is alive to vote for anybody now.
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The walking std admits that quemala is vulnerable.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/panic-mode-bill-clinton-admits-kamala-harris-is/
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https://www.breitbart.com/the-media/2024/10/24/nolte-atlantics-hitler-story-not-only-hoax-its-rerun-2022/
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there it is…Miami-Dade now red:
Miami-Dade
113,952 R
113,948 D
71,392
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Duval County Florida is now R+2.3, remembering that this is the county that the state of Georgia always votes just to the right of.
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More hope-casting from dems:
Marist polling of early voters:
AZ: Harris 55 Trump 44
NC: Harris 55 Trump 43
GA: Harris 54 Trump 45.
It strikes me as a little surprising given the composition of the EV thus far in those states. Suggests that EV Indies are voting Dem.
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I know you like anybody who doesn’t like me.”
Zzzzz… not true.
I like you so how could I like people who don’t like you.
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I think a poll of “early voters” is going to be very difficult, unless you are polling at the precincts and Marist doesn’t have the money to do that. Also the sample is going to very small if they are just asking their regular polls respondents “did you vote already”. If you have 800 respondents, and 40 say they already voted, your MOE is going to be huge.
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In any case, I bet those EV numbers are better for Trump than 2016 or 2020.
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That’s a big help, Big Dog…
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She is vulnerable and vote depending on how you think of Biden…..
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DW, I read that those surveyed by Marist came during the first couple of days when Dem EV turnout was heavier, and that the GOP caught up and took the lead shortly thereafter. Make of that what you will.
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In 2020, Trump got 5,668,731 total votes in Florida. So far 1,404,276 ballots have been cast, just by registered Republicans.
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New Hampshire polling coming tonight from Emerson. Their last poll was Trump 46, Harris 51 taken in August at the height of her media created popularity.
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Well that had to hurt.
Ralston News: Those Washoe mail ballots I told you about have dropped and they did NOT help the Dems. Of the 16K counted, it was: 6K, D; 6K, R; 4K, Others.
GOP statewide ballot lead is 18,000 out of about 417,000 cast.
Blog update this afternoon.
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MICHIGAN poll
🔵 Harris: 52% (+4)
🔴 Trump: 48%
MSU/YouGov | 9/23-10/10 | N=845LV
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another poll where they poll and hold, then release when you need good news for Kamala.
Totally absurd to poll from 9/23 to 10/10, then HOLD it for TWO WEEKS…and then release it.
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Wait, 17 freaking days to conduct the poll, and then another two weeks to release it? That is beyond stale. Trash it.
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Good catch Dw. That is dated.
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A-holes are complex and deep.
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still. Maybe Michigan is inching back towards kamanawanakaya I always thought Michigan would be the last of PA. WI and MI to fall
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Cannot make that observation with that pole. It’s dated from collection dates to the release date. They held it back.
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Eric Daugherty
@EricLDaugh
BREAKING: Donald Trump announces two battleground rallies
Allentown, Pennsylvania: Tuesday, 10/29
Green Bay, Wisconsin: Wednesday, 10/30
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https://nypost.com/2024/10/24/us-news/philadelphia-firefighters-union-flips-senate-endorsement-to-gops-dave-mccormick-tired-of-political-promises/
”PHILADELPHIA — Sirens are sounding for Sen. Bob Casey’s campaign in Pennsylvania, where the firefighters’ union in deep-blue Philly is ditching the incumbent Democrat and endorsing GOP Senate hopeful Dave McCormick instead.
The union, International Association of Fire Fighters Local 22, is based in the city’s industrial Northern Liberties neighborhood and represents more than 4,500 firefighters, paramedics and EMTs.”
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Now in Florida the GOP has cleared a NINE point lead over Dems in ballots returned.
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Hitler, Hitler, Hitler…
Fascist, Fascist, Fascist….
Bust…Bust…Bust….
A total bust…PredictIT back to Trump 60, Harris 45
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That is good news. However, the New York post reporter should get out more. Northern Liberties is now an area with many young professionals, artists, and families with restaurants and bars.
Here comes Jason…
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But the Hitler stuff did give a brief opportunity for some to sell Harris at 49c and salvage what they could.
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”Orange Hitler”
It makes sense.
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I voted today, after playing bridge (came in dead last) 😦
For president for the first time EVER, I voted for a woman for president. I wrote in my wife;s name. 🙂
Cash Cow waited in line with me for 1 hour and 15 minutes. But was denied her right to vote because she plopped a patty on the floor just as she was handing over her voter ID card. It was embarrassing.
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Research and Marketing Strategies (RMS) is out with their latest poll. Nationwide number:
50% Trump
46% Kamala
They will be out later with their key state numbers.
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Kamala tanking at Predictit again.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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For president for the first time EVER, I voted for a woman for president. I wrote in my wife;s name”
Daffy Duck will be pissed.
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Head Fake or Serious ????
Lara Trump to join Glenn Youngkin in a VIRGINIA RALLY
Donald Trump: “Virginia early vote is looking tremendous enough for the GOP that perhaps Lara is not the only TRUMP you will see in the Commonwealth before Election Day.”
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NT
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